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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring / Summer 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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This mornings ensemble run certainly not as good as what was showing this time yesterday. Looks less warm with more uncertainty and more rainfall spikes in the chart. A definite downgrade.
Uppers look quite low on the 25th of August with the low pressure spoiling things for us from the north-west.
Warm uppers on the 26th to 29th but cold air never too far away just sitting to the north of Scotland.
It's all over by the 1st of September, with cool or very cool air plunging down from the north with low pressure back.
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the dry and settled spell from next weekend is looking like a mixed bag for us with low pressure from the north-west spoiling things at times, particularly in the west.
The East and South may get a dry, warm day on the 23rd of August, but low pressure already in place near the north-west keeping things cooler and more unsettled there.
Saturday 24th see's heights focused more towards the south-east of England as low pressure creeps in from the north-west. The east could still escape with a warm, dry day.
Sunday 25th see's low pressure slip down to our south-west, perhaps a warm or very warm and dry day in the east and possibly the north. Uppers by this stage very warm over Leinster
Monday 26th see's warm or hot air dragged up from France and central Europe. The low pressure off Kerry could still bring showers over the west and south-west. Perhaps some potential for thunder?
The uppers look high over Ireland Monday 26th-Tuesday 27th with a tongue of hot air moving north-westwards across Ireland. Looks similar to the heatwave failure in June, however uppers not quite as high as that event.
If this happens, and everything plays in our favour, then high 20's are a possibility in some parts.
Wednesday 28th see's the low off the south-west becoming more of an influence in the west, with the high uppers being squeezed out. Still very warm across the east and north. Thursday 29th see's the low crossing Ireland introducing cooler and unsettled conditions.
This upcoming warm spell is still very knife edge for my liking, this could easily go pear shaped for us with low pressures never far away from our western shore at any stage. Hopefully the next few days will continue to see this in warm spell in place with the low's keeping off shore to allow maybe the final spell of summer before Autumn.0 -
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ECMWF and GEM more positive of HP building around Ireland from about next Sunday, GFS not building it as much.
The LP towards next weekend seems to stay to our N possibly sending in a front on Sat and then Azores ridging builds after that.
Fri , Sat looking warm with Fri in the E maybe the warmest as it draws in warmer air from Europe, possibly up to mid 20's.
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ECM 12Z continues the trend of building HP from around next Sun. GFS has a deep LP around Mon / Tues, this same LP is blocked well to the NW by the ECM and GEM. I think the UKMO also looks like HP might win out nudging the LP to the N.
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Two runs by the ECM today and has dropped the chance of HP building from later this weekend. Lots of change going on so nothing definite, would have to see if a trend sets up.
What it is showing atm is just transient ridging and large area of LP developing around the weekend heading up towards Iceland possibly sending in fronts and introducing a cool NW'ly airflow with air sourced from Greenland / N. Canada. At the same time showing the Jet plunge S putting us under a cool slack air mass around mid next week. Possibly temps sub 10C at night and mid to high teens during the day at best going by the latest run.
GFS has better heights than the ECM with less of a LP forming around the week end and GEM more like the GFS .
Pure FI atm , hard to know how it will go after the weekend.
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What is the outlook for next week?
cool and unsettled conditions developing from Tuesday. The following week may see another brief warmish spell, around the 2nd to 4th of September, temperatures possibly reaching 20 or 21C.
High pressure moving in on Tuesday 2nd of September:
High pressure over us on the 3rd of September:
High pressure just about holding on till the 4th:
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sryanbruen wrote: »Models been poor recently already but keep in mind that with the hurricane season starting to liven up in the Atlantic, model reliability will plummet further.
Been thinking the same sryanbruen, couple of tropical storms getting going with chance of cyclone formation quite high, if the remnants eventually start moving up towards our latitudes they can have a big impact on swinging the weather one way or the other often with big flip flopping from the models throwing out various scenarios. Interesting model watching though.
Unsettled enough charts from the ECM 0Z if they verify with a succession of LP's bringing windy and wet weather at times from next weekend alternating between mild and cool as fronts go through and winds changing to NW'ly directions as the LP's track N bringing down colder air mass.
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