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Hi all,
Vanilla are planning an update to the site on April 24th (next Wednesday). It is a major PHP8 update which is expected to boost performance across the site. The site will be down from 7pm and it is expected to take about an hour to complete. We appreciate your patience during the update.
Thanks all.

Is anyone else starting to become a bit excited?

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Comments

  • #5462
    stockshares
    Registered Users Posts: 2,757 ✭✭✭stockshares


    Facebook Libra might be launching its dollar pegged stablecoin in January 2021
    https://www.coindesk.com/facebook-libra-stablecoin-january-2021


  • #5463
    stockshares
    Registered Users Posts: 2,757 ✭✭✭stockshares


    Lex Luthor wrote: »
    there's a few options aswell at USDT

    USDC or Dai for example
    stockshares wrote: »
    You can also lend out your USDC and DAI on Defi sites like Compound to earn passive interest while you wait.
    stockshares wrote: »
    That's very low. I'd choose another one but stay away from Tether.

    Dai is the more flexible one if your going to lend
    Bob24 wrote: »
    As others said, avoid Tether (USDT) if it is to store wealth. USDC, TUSD and PAX seems like the safest to me.

    And then double-check the spread on the platform you are getting the stable pins from so that you don’t get screwed every time you buy and sell.

    Obviously you are still exposed to volatility of the USD/EUR exchange rate so it is not the same as keeping cash in euros (can be good or bad depending on what the exchange rate does - this year holding USD instead of EUR would have been a bad deal, but in 2019 it would have been a good one).

    Also you have PAXG which is issued by a solid company and backed by physical gold *if* you feel holding your funds in gold is safer than holding them in USD.
    Jafin wrote: »
    Thank you both for the advice! I have no plans to do anything any time soon (unless by some miracle we have another sudden spike), so I'll definitely do as much research as I can before the time comes.

    A warning about stableciins.

    Lenders on Compound have lost 100 million after their loans were liquidated due to being under collaterized after DAIs price surged
    https://news.bitcoin.com/100-million-liquidated-on-defi-protocol-compound-following-oracle-exploit/


  • #5464
    Bob24
    Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    stockshares wrote: »
    Facebook Libra might be launching its dollar pegged stablecoin in January 2021
    https://www.coindesk.com/facebook-libra-stablecoin-january-2021

    Seriously scaled-down compared to the initial project which was to create a synthetic global currency. Curious to see if this is enough to appease regulators and politicians around the world (I think the backlash they received wasn’t just due to the nature of the project, but also simply due to the fact that Facebook as an entity is seen as to powerful already).


  • #5465
    makeorbrake
    Registered Users Posts: 4,664 ✭✭✭makeorbrake


    stockshares wrote: »
    A warning about stableciins.

    Lenders on Compound have lost 100 million after their loans were liquidated due to being under collaterized after DAIs price surged
    https://news.bitcoin.com/100-million-liquidated-on-defi-protocol-compound-following-oracle-exploit/
    That particular issue is confined to DAI as an algorithmically-controlled stable coin. Not the others. Its due to a couple of similar occurrences earlier in the year that USDC started to feature more in DeFi circles. If they can iron those bumps out, then DAI is otherwise preferable as the others come with their own trade-offs.


  • #5466
    Bob24
    Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    makeorbrake wrote: »
    That particular issue is confined to DAI as an algorithmically-controlled stable coin. Not the others. Its due to a couple of similar occurrences earlier in the year that USDC started to feature more in DeFi circles. If they can iron those bumps out, then DAI is otherwise preferable as the others come with their own trade-offs.

    Yes, this is why I hadn’t included DAI in my list of recommendations.

    It is a great POC of how to create a synthetic digital asset which is collateralised by other digital assets an algorithmically tracks the price a real world asset. It already works fairly well and will have great applications in the future (tracking the USD is a fairly basic application, I guess they will eventually start issuing tokens which are tracking other more complex things).

    But for now given how early we are in the game, if the goal is to store wealth as safely as possible, I’d still prefer going for the simpler option of a digital asset which is simply backed one for one by the underlying real world asset and certified by auditors.


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  • #5467
    plibige
    Registered Users Posts: 350 ✭✭plibige


    Probably a stupid question but I can't seem to find a unanimously agreed upon answer so throwing it out there to see what people think.

    If the long rumoured stock market crash happens in 2021 how does it affect cryptocurrency? Are the two correlated much, are are they relatively independent?

    Would bitcoin be safer than altcoins or vice versa?

    I'm relatively new to the space and have been holding. I don't day trade


  • #5468
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,673 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    My personal observation is that there is some correlation between the two so when there is a flight of capital to safety, BTC is included, to a degree. BTC is safer than altcoins.


  • #5469
    Stormington
    Registered Users Posts: 521 ✭✭✭Stormington


    cnocbui wrote: »
    My personal observation is that there is some correlation between the two so when there is a flight of capital to safety, BTC is included, to a degree. BTC is safer than altcoins.
    Very correlated.
    When the market crashed in March, everything dumped and fled to USD.

    BTC and crypto will not replace the dollar any time soon but it is an asset class you can make money on.


  • #5470
    Bob24
    Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    cnocbui wrote: »
    My personal observation is that there is some correlation between the two so when there is a flight of capital to safety, BTC is included, to a degree. BTC is safer than altcoins.

    Yes when markets are in panic mode, everything becomes correlated. This is because many market operators are forced to liquidate anything at hand to cover loses and margin calls on their more risky bets.

    But that correlation only is a short term one, while forced liquidations are happening and the dust is settling. Fairly shortly afterwards things can de-correlate again as forced-sales stop and people start having an opinion on what is happening and what the implications are for different assets.

    This can clearly be seen on the gold chart in March: for about 2 weeks gold is nosediving at the same time as stock markets are crashing (although the fall is not as deep as most stock markets). But it then rebounds sharply and within 3 weeks after the start of the crash it is almost back to its previous high, and resumes its upwards trend while the S&P500 is still significantly below its pre-crash levels.

    BTC would most likely nosedive as well if there was a severe crash in the stock market, but the question is how quickly it would end this temporary correlation and which direction it would go afterwards.


  • #5471
    makeorbrake
    Registered Users Posts: 4,664 ✭✭✭makeorbrake


    Everything goes down in those conditions. We saw that with gold in the 2008 crisis. We saw it with bitcoin and gold in March. Trading 24/7 -365 bitcoin is also very much available to liquidate and cover leveraged positions in the conventional markets.


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  • #5472
    Lex Luthor
    Registered Users Posts: 11,220 ✭✭✭✭Lex Luthor


    they are correlated as personal sentiment in a downturn is the same whether its crypto or stonks


  • #5473
    antgal23
    Registered Users Posts: 497 ✭✭antgal23


    plibige wrote: »
    Probably a stupid question but I can't seem to find a unanimously agreed upon answer so throwing it out there to see what people think.

    If the long rumoured stock market crash happens in 2021 how does it affect cryptocurrency? Are the two correlated much, are are they relatively independent?

    Would bitcoin be safer than altcoins or vice versa?

    I'm relatively new to the space and have been holding. I don't day trade


    What's your appetite for risk?
    What's the function of money for you?
    If you lost all your savings tomorrow in crypto how would you feel?


    In your opinion, what will the financial world look like
    In five ten years?
    How long do you plan to invest your money for?
    What return on investment do you need/ expect/ want?
    To what degree if any will crypto replace fiat?
    When will the current bull Run on storks end?
    In financial boom to bust cycles where are we? Beginning ? Middle? End?

    Will BTC decouple its correlation from stocks on the next downturn? If so, what will this mean?


  • #5474
    grindle
    Registered Users Posts: 6,026 ✭✭✭grindle


    antgal23 wrote: »
    What's your appetite for risk? YES
    What's the function of money for you? YES
    If you lost all your savings tomorrow in crypto how would you feel? YES
    In your opinion, what will the financial world look like
    In five ten years? YES
    How long do you plan to invest your money for? YES
    What return on investment do you need/ expect/ want? YES
    To what degree if any will crypto replace fiat? YES
    When will the current bull Run on storks end? YES
    In financial boom to bust cycles where are we? YES Beginning? YES Middle? YES End? YES

    Will BTC decouple its correlation from stocks on the next downturn? If so, what will this mean? YES
    I think that covers everything for moonbois entering the space asking randos on a shhiiiiieeeetcoin forum for what to expect of themselves when prices go up

    I might be disillusioned and sceptical, but I don't think many newbies listen to the "It may go down" which we'd both try to preach. Most people act like red wojaks when their fave coins (for no reason) drop (for another no reason).

    One of the weirdest things I'm proudest of is keeping people I love from dumping money into crypto. Just because they would most definitely make all the wrongest of choices, fall for every single scam, and I'd be fielding calls every day of the week wondering why I "convinced" them to buy [AnyCoin].
    First things I say to absolutely anybody who asks:
    "Are you a gambler?"
    "Why are you gambling on this?"
    lalala, long conversation
    If they have good jobs and aren't gambling retard money, go for it. Lads in woeful jobs with heavy mortgages and a wife and kids...that's a huge gamble, stop wasting money or potentially making all of their lives scummier just on an off-chance.


  • #5475
    plibige
    Registered Users Posts: 350 ✭✭plibige


    antgal23 wrote: »
    What's your appetite for risk?
    What's the function of money for you?
    If you lost all your savings tomorrow in crypto how would you feel?


    In your opinion, what will the financial world look like
    In five ten years?
    How long do you plan to invest your money for?
    What return on investment do you need/ expect/ want?
    To what degree if any will crypto replace fiat?
    When will the current bull Run on storks end?
    In financial boom to bust cycles where are we? Beginning ? Middle? End?

    Will BTC decouple its correlation from stocks on the next downturn? If so, what will this mean?

    Straight up I'm only putting in money i don't need. I have regular savings, I pay my bills, I have a bit of disposable income and then a small amount goes into crypto.

    I've got exit values in mind and if they happen so be it.

    I'll probably be in the space for the next 2-5 years depending on personal circumstances.

    I was just looking for a few opinions. I don't know anyone in person who is in crypto


  • #5476
    Dohnjoe
    Registered Users Posts: 17,765 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    plibige wrote: »
    Straight up I'm only putting in money i don't need. I have regular savings, I pay my bills, I have a bit of disposable income and then a small amount goes into crypto.

    I've got exit values in mind and if they happen so be it.

    I'll probably be in the space for the next 2-5 years depending on personal circumstances.

    I was just looking for a few opinions. I don't know anyone in person who is in crypto

    Purely my opinion:

    Unless you follow it closely, then I wouldn't stray too far from BTC and Eth. There are some alts which have good (non-toxic) communities and teams constantly developing, but the market itself is pretty irrational, and really the key seems to be attractiveness to low-info investors rather than real world use/metrics. Think of it as the "upside down" of the stock market or other financial markets

    Would I buy in now? No. If someone put a gun to my head and forced me, then 50% BTC, 40% Eth and 10% into a longshot alt in the top 50 (Chainlink, Iota, Vechain, etc)

    I topped up a few times in the last couple of years, but that was generally only when there was blood on the streets, BTC was sub 5k and Eth touching 100. There will most certainly be more dips and bears, you can be sure of that. If you aren't investing, but want to follow, can recommend checking the prices on a daily basis to get a feel for the market.


  • #5477
    Bob24
    Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    And we are north of 15k euros again ...


  • #5478
    One More Toy
    Registered Users Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭One More Toy


    Couldn't sleep, so loaded up on some ethereum


  • #5479
    makeorbrake
    Registered Users Posts: 4,664 ✭✭✭makeorbrake


    One More Toy wrote: »
    Couldn't sleep, so loaded up on some ethereum

    I've always seen bitcoin as the red pill but are you saying ETH is a cure for insomnia? :D


  • #5480
    One More Toy
    Registered Users Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭One More Toy


    makeorbrake wrote: »
    I've always seen bitcoin as the red pill but are you saying ETH is a cure for insomnia? :D

    It was in my case! Just felt like loading up at 5am. Must transfer to my ledger actually you reminded me


  • #5481
    Dohnjoe
    Registered Users Posts: 17,765 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    XRP, ADA and XLM have been doing well, a good indicator of the "these ones are cheap" types entering the market. Family friends, people on Revolut/Paypal and first-timers will be the usual lambs for the slaughter if there's a FOMO run.


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  • #5482
    antgal23
    Registered Users Posts: 497 ✭✭antgal23


    plibige wrote: »
    Straight up I'm only putting in money i don't need. I have regular savings, I pay my bills, I have a bit of disposable income and then a small amount goes into crypto.

    I've got exit values in mind and if they happen so be it.

    I'll probably be in the space for the next 2-5 years depending on personal circumstances.

    I was just looking for a few opinions. I don't know anyone in person who is in crypto


    If as you say there ll be a crash next year and as one can observe that BTC is correlated with S&P surely it's best to wait until then to dip toes into crypto?


  • #5483
    antgal23
    Registered Users Posts: 497 ✭✭antgal23


    Dohnjoe wrote: »
    XRP, ADA and XLM have been doing well, a good indicator of the "these ones are cheap" types entering the market. Family friends, people on Revolut/Paypal and first-timers will be the usual lambs for the slaughter if there's a FOMO run.

    I think the FOMO retail crowd will take BTC beyond 20 K a BTC but ultimately it ll end in tears for many


  • #5484
    Dohnjoe
    Registered Users Posts: 17,765 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    antgal23 wrote: »
    I think the FOMO retail crowd will take BTC beyond 20 K a BTC but ultimately it ll end in tears for many

    Sadly yeah. The patient just take money from the impatient.


  • #5485
    Bob24
    Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    antgal23 wrote: »
    If as you say there ll be a crash next year and as one can observe that BTC is correlated with S&P surely it's best to wait until then to dip toes into crypto?

    One potential flaw with this strategy is that even if you were sure there will be a crash, you don’t know how high it will go before that crash and how deep the crash will be.

    Let’s stay for exemple that BTC goes to to 30000 EUR next year and then suffers a large 40% pullback. Is it better to buy now at 15000 euros or to wait for that crash and buy at 18000 euros? (this is not a prediction, just a potential scenario to show why waiting doesn’t necessarily make sense even if you expect a crash)

    One other flaw is that it is very hard (not to say impossible) to time the precise bottom after a crash and go all-in exactly at that time. For exemple: how many people can honestly say they went from no exposure to BTC to going all-in when the price dipped below 3500 euros in March for a few hours? (because they knew it was the precise moment they had been waiting for to deploy all their cash)


  • #5486
    Bob24
    Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    Dohnjoe wrote: »
    Sadly yeah. The patient just take money from the impatient.

    Really depends on what happens with institutions. What I am reading is that many fund managers want to dip in, but can’t at the moment because they are being restricted by their of boards trustee, compliance departments, or current regulatory frameworks.

    It seems like this is slowly changing, with this as a recent exemple: https://cointelegraph.com/news/guggenheim-partners-prepares-to-dip-investment-fund-s-toes-into-bitcoin

    This is a gradual change though, and some institutional players need longer than others to be allowed to participate (for exemple, pension funds are probably years away while some hedge funds have made large purchases already). So there could be a gradual flow of institutional money coming in throughout next year.


  • #5487
    Lex Luthor
    Registered Users Posts: 11,220 ✭✭✭✭Lex Luthor


    Bob24 wrote: »
    Really depends on what happens with institutions. What I am reading is that many fund managers want to dip in, but can’t at the moment because they are being restricted by their of boards trustee, compliance departments, or current regulatory frameworks.

    It seems like this is slowly changing, with this as a recent exemple: https://cointelegraph.com/news/guggenheim-partners-prepares-to-dip-investment-fund-s-toes-into-bitcoin

    This is a gradual change though, and some institutional players need longer than others to be allowed to participate (for exemple, pension funds are probably years away while some hedge funds have made large purchases already). So there could be a gradual flow of institutional money coming in throughout next year.
    They are getting around this by investing in GBTC, which has a knock on effect


  • #5488
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,673 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    antgal23 wrote: »
    If as you say there ll be a crash next year and as one can observe that BTC is correlated with S&P surely it's best to wait until then to dip toes into crypto?

    I predited the recent crash over six years ago. And for those six years I was sure it was imminent, and when it did happen, it wasn't for the reasons behind the original prediction.

    So much for timing.

    Earlier this year I was in a bind as to whether to invest in the downed market , but hedge fund magers and Warren Buffet and numerous investing legends were arguing aginst it predicting a far larger crash to come.

    I'm glad to say I ignored them and invested anyway and am up over 9%.

    Go for that killer timing strategy. Good luck.


  • #5489
    Bob24
    Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    Lex Luthor wrote: »
    They are getting around this by investing in GBTC, which has a knock on effect

    Even GBTC is unavailable to many fund managers, for the reasons I mentioned (for exemple try to stick it into a pension fund, it isn't going to happen and I think it will remain that way for a good while).

    For a specific exemple, the link I posted illustrates the case of a macro fund which needs to make a regulatory filing precisely so that it can buy GBTC (and it already is the kind of fund which has relatively free hands and flexibility compared to more regulated stuff).


  • #5490
    makeorbrake
    Registered Users Posts: 4,664 ✭✭✭makeorbrake


    antgal23 wrote: »
    If as you say there ll be a crash next year and as one can observe that BTC is correlated with S&P surely it's best to wait until then to dip toes into crypto?

    The consideration of a conventional market dip screwed up my thesis on how btc was supposed to roll in 2020. I believed it had to come - but how helpful is that in reality? Here we are many months later and no correction.

    This is where I think position size and tangible conviction come in. On the one hand I tell myself that I bottled it in March when I could have increased my btc holding considerably. On the other hand, I cut myself slack in that I wasn't getting excessively greedy and at least having a basic level of risk management on the go.

    I've had to suffer through a few instances of being heavily underwater on my btc position. Anyone who has been there will understand it. If you haven't, then how you will deal with that is much different to how you think theoretically you will deal with it. It's psychologically unnerving - but what makes it much worse is if you've got your position size wrong. If you can live with the loss and further potential loss - whilst maintaining your conviction (assuming that your overall belief continues to be that btc is tangible and demand for it will continue to grow) - then you can come out the right end of it.
    If you've got your position size wrong in those circumstances, the psychological pressure is greater and you're likely to make much different decisions (i.e. more likely to sell off).

    I guess what I'm saying is that you could take a position on the basis that you're comfortable in holding through the dip. Maybe you could buy 50% or 33% of what you had intended and go again if/when a dip comes? What I would say is that in your pen-ultimate post, this is one of the most important questions in going in to any trade or taking up a position (in my totally amateur opinion) ->

    "If you lost all your savings tomorrow in crypto how would you feel?"


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  • #5491
    plibige
    Registered Users Posts: 350 ✭✭plibige


    antgal23 wrote: »
    If as you say there ll be a crash next year and as one can observe that BTC is correlated with S&P surely it's best to wait until then to dip toes into crypto?

    I don't know if there will be a crash, I asked a hypothetical.

    And I never said I own any btc I just asked about crypto and asked if there was a difference between alts and bitcoin in relation to stock


This discussion has been closed.
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