Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Post Reply  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
31-12-2019, 22:45   #16
kindredspirit
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 279
Kindred Spirit ___ 5.4 ___ 13.5 ___ -4.0 ___ 95 ___ 110 ___ 69
kindredspirit is offline  
Thanks from:
Advertisement
31-12-2019, 23:16   #17
Tae laidir
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 473
Tae laidir __6.1__13.2__-4.6__95__90__72
Tae laidir is offline  
Thanks from:
01-01-2020, 00:39   #18
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,729
MTC __________ 6.8 _ 14.7 _ -4.5 _ 095 _ 110 __ 78

NormaL _______ 5.1 _ 14.0 _ -7.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 67
M.T. Cranium is offline  
01-01-2020, 01:33   #19
Jpmarn
Registered User
 
Jpmarn's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 1,232
Jpmarn __5.8__14.4__-5.5__105__105__72

Last edited by Jpmarn; 01-01-2020 at 02:56.
Jpmarn is offline  
Thanks from:
01-01-2020, 09:43   #20
John mac
Registered User
 
John mac's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Posts: 4,470
john mac __5.5__13.7__-5.3__105__100__58
John mac is offline  
Thanks from:
Advertisement
01-01-2020, 10:09   #21
Joe Public
Registered User
 
Joe Public's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 1,653
Joe Public__5.1__13.8__-6.9__89__109__64

Is it that time of the year already?
Joe Public is offline  
Thanks from:
01-01-2020, 11:28   #22
adam240610
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 474
Adam240610 __6__13.3__-4.4__100__90__68
adam240610 is offline  
Thanks from:
01-01-2020, 12:00   #23
JCX BXC
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 16,595
JCXBXC__6.6__15.0__-4.7__105__90__65
JCX BXC is offline  
Thanks from:
01-01-2020, 17:24   #24
BLIZZARD7
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,468
BLIZZARD7 _______ 6.8 _ 15.3 _ -7.0 _ 105 _ 110 __ 75


Happy New Year to all !
BLIZZARD7 is offline  
(2) thanks from:
Advertisement
02-01-2020, 02:07   #25
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,729
Welcome to the 2020 forecast contest ... we may get a few more entries but for now, this is the table of entries received. As noted in the original post, late penalties are cut in half for this month only. Even if you were to read this mid-day Thursday and enter, you would only be looking at a six point deduction instead of the normal 12 (at 1500h, after that, penalties will increase 1 point per hour). Welcome to esposito and WesternStorm, hope we do get some more new (to our contest) forecasters. For their benefit, I will mention that the table of entries runs from highest to lowest IMT predictions and where tied, from high MAX to lower MAX values, if still tied, same idea for MIN etc. Consensus is based on a median rather than a mean of the entries so that a few wildly different values don't have as much effect. Con Sensus has always been about a top five performer in our contests, rather hard for the math to be much different. Scoring is based on the following general concepts:

IMT max of 25, deduct 1 pt per 0.1 error
MAX and MIN score 20, deduct 1 pt per 0.1 error
PRC scores 15, deduct 1 pt per 3% error
SUN scores 10, deduct 1 pt per 5% error (rounded off, so within 2 scores 10, within 3-7 scores 9 etc)
BONUS question usually scores 10 and sometimes a point or two extra if you get very close to the right answer(s).

When regular scoring will be too low, scores revert to "minimum progression" which awards points on a rank-ordered scale from 1 under max to zero. There can be modified minimum progression if one forecaster's raw score is within 2 of the max, then the rest of the scores can only be boosted half as much from raw to progression so that the one accurate forecast is better rewarded relatively speaking. No minimum progression score will be lower than a raw score, sometimes a blend is the fair solution.

Table of Forecasts for January 2020


FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max gust (kn)

200motels __________ 6.9 _ 14.1 _-4.0 _ 107 _ 080 ____ 55

BLIZZARD7 ___ (-3) __ 6.8 _ 15.3 _-7.0 _ 105 _ 110 ____ 75

sryanbruen __________6.8 _ 15.1 _-4.0 _ 105 _ 080 ____ 60

M.T. Cranium ________ 6.8 _ 14.7 _-4.5 _ 095 _ 110 ____ 78

JCXBXC ______ (-2) __ 6.6 _ 15.0 _-4.7 _ 105 _ 090 ____ 65

Pauldry _____________6.5 _ 14.2 _-4.3 _ 100 _ 090 ____ 65

Artane2002 _________ 6.4 _ 15.1 _-3.7 _ 085 _ 090 ____ 59

esposito ____________ 6.2 _ 14.9 _-3.6 _ 110 _ 085 ____ 60

mickger844posts _____ 6.2 _ 14.1 _-3.8 _ 095 _ 080 ____ 57

Tae laidir ____________6.1 _ 13.2 _-4.6 _ 095 _ 090 ____ 72

Adam240610 __ (-2) __ 6.0 _ 13.3 _-4.4 _ 100 _ 090 ____ 68

Mrskinner ___________ 5.9 _ 13.9 _-5.9 _ 089 _ 099 ____ 69


___ Con Sensus ______ 5.9 _ 14.1 _-4.4 _ 100 _ 095 ____ 65


Jpmarn _____________ 5.8 _ 14.4 _-5.5 _ 105 _ 105 ____ 72

Sunflower3 __________ 5.8 _ 13.8 _-4.2 _ 085 _ 090 ____ 62

Rikand ______________5.5 _ 15.0 _-4.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 75

Dacogawa ___________ 5.5 _ 14.4 _-6.3 _ 120 _ 092 ____ 67

john mac _____ (-2) ___5.5 _ 13.7 _-5.3 _ 105 _ 100 ____ 58

Bsal ________________ 5.5 _ 13.1 _-4.5 _ 090 _ 095 ____ 70

Kindred Spirit _________5.4 _ 13.5 _-4.0 _ 095 _ 110 ____ 69


NormaL _____________ 5.1 _ 14.0 _-7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 67


Joe Public _____ (-2) ___5.1 _ 13.8 _-6.9 _ 089 _ 109 ____ 64

Dasa29 ______________5.0 _ 13.0 _-4.0 _ 100 _ 110 ____ 65

DOCARCH ____________5.0 _ 12.7 _-5.8 _ 090 _ 100 ____ 58

WesternStorm ________ 4.9 _ 14.0 _-4.0 _ 093 _ 097 ____ 60

______________________________________________-

The general consensus appears to be rather mild and near average for rain and sunshine, with a lack of apprehension for strong winds (only three of us went as high as 75 knots). Later entries will be added and Con Sensus may change as a result.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 02-01-2020 at 02:38.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
07-01-2020, 15:30   #26
waterways
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 281
I thought I had posted. Must be age ....
waterways is offline  
Thanks from:
07-01-2020, 18:29   #27
pauldry
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 3,984
14.3c in 3 locations today but Pheonix may have got higher or Moore Park

Also saw gusts near 60 knots on reports so maybe a target gust has been set
pauldry is offline  
08-01-2020, 00:38   #28
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,729
Quote:
Originally Posted by waterways View Post
I thought I had posted. Must be age ....
No worries, just jump back in next month and try to avoid two low scores, for most people I've noticed the first score to go is a really low one but the second score discarded in best 10/12 is often just a point or two below the next lowest.

So as long as you follow that pattern, missing one month just costs you a couple of points in the main contest.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
08-01-2020, 00:47   #29
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,729
Just a heads up also, if anyone is following this month's thread and didn't notice, I posted historical scoring records from the entire decade in the December thread. Will be adding a few things to that going forward.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
(2) thanks from:
08-01-2020, 08:51   #30
Tae laidir
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 473
Newport Furnace had a max of 14.4 yesterday.
Tae laidir is offline  
(2) thanks from:
Post Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Remove Text Formatting
Bold
Italic
Underline

Insert Image
Wrap [QUOTE] tags around selected text
 
Decrease Size
Increase Size
Please sign up or log in to join the discussion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Share Tweet