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01-01-2020, 19:11   #61
Meteorite58
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Flew from Orlando to Dublin last night and it was the most turbulence I’ve experienced for quite a while flying through that. On the plus side the nice tail wind got us in an hour early.
Looks like ye had a fairly strong jet helping along a good bit of the way. Out of interest where was the worst turbulence ? About half way across by any chance ?




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04-01-2020, 11:19   #62
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IMO the models fairly aligned now with the track , strength and duration of winds for next Monday and Tuesday. Strongest on coasts, maybe up to around 100km/h on coastal fringes for a time early Monday , up to 90 km/h more general on Atlantic coasts and probably up to 80 km/h or so inland for a time as the front crosses the country by the afternoon.

Rainfall not excessive but will be squally /blustery on Monday as the front crosses the country quickly.

Tuesday the winds could be stronger in Connacht and the NW with more sustained strong winds 80 to 100km/h overland there and up to 80 km/h elsewhere. Rainfall heaviest in W Connacht and Donegal, for the rest of the country not showing excessive rainfall at this stage.






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04-01-2020, 13:02   #63
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Tuesday also sees extremely warm uppers crossing the country, possibly +12 or +13C uppers. In the summer these could get us close to 30C under the right conditions.

As this is January, the middle of winter and with rain expected, these should get the temperature to 13C or possibly slightly higher.



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04-01-2020, 15:08   #64
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Quote:
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Looks like ye had a fairly strong jet helping along a good bit of the way. Out of interest where was the worst turbulence ? About half way across by any chance ?




It was a case of seat belt sign on for 80% of the flight. The middle third was definitely the most turbulent.
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05-01-2020, 12:14   #65
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Would appear to me that the highest winds Monday are very much reserved for Atlantic coastal fringes especially the W. Blustery across the country as the front goes through, cleared by mid afternoon.







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05-01-2020, 12:50   #66
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Flew from Orlando to Dublin last night and it was the most turbulence I’ve experienced for quite a while flying through that. On the plus side the nice tail wind got us in an hour early.
The SigWx chart for that time showed a large area of moderate to severe turbulence in the mid-Atlantic (areas marked [6] and [7] below). Moderate up to 45,000 ft (area 6), moderate-severe between up to 42,000 ft (area 7). It looks like your flight flew through this area at 38,000 ft, so right through the thick of it.

Further back, there was a strong jet streak of above 150 knots along the US east coast.


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06-01-2020, 21:27   #67
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We must not overlook potential for Wednesday night into Thursday.

Models been struggling to handle the wave development, still good number of solutions going for a nasty feature near our south coast.
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06-01-2020, 21:36   #68
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ICON showing the risk tonight

GEM also

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06-01-2020, 22:59   #69
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We must not overlook potential for Wednesday night into Thursday.

Models been struggling to handle the wave development, still good number of solutions going for a nasty feature near our south coast.

Just moved your posts over to this thread Sleety_Rain as the other is more for +120 hrs ie in the more unreliable.

You are very right Sleety , the models have been increasing the wind speed on that small deepening fast moving low and bringing it further N over Ireland on each run early Thurs morning. ICON leading the way in track over Ireland and wind strength. ARPEGE coming out now , we will see what it does, so far keeping the strongest winds offshore, will the winds come in closer and strengthen on this run like the rest?




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06-01-2020, 23:01   #70
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06-01-2020, 23:11   #71
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A lot happening over the coming week including possible strong winds Fri into early Sat morning, quite wet and looking like pulling in cold air behind the fronts















ICON showing very heavy rain over the weekend.






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06-01-2020, 23:22   #72
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Majority of charts showing it much windier inland tomorrow than today with heavy blustery showers.

Winds veering during the day from S to SW and ending up WSW or W.




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06-01-2020, 23:36   #73
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EURO 418Z powering up that Low for early Thurs and showing possible sleety precipitation I reckon out in front as it moves into the colder air. ECM showing a fast jet acting as a conveyor belt.

Would want to see the ECM follow this and ICON in order to verify . EURO4 can certainly overdo the wind speeds and rainfall predictions, but is quite good and a useful model at the off.









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07-01-2020, 22:44   #74
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Models have mostly backed off the very windy conditions early Thurs morning apart from EURO 4 and ICON bringing strong winds close to the coast. Still a deal of uncertainty. Models are showing a second low that could bring windy conditions to the SW Thurs evening.









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07-01-2020, 22:48   #75
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Still looking wet and windy Fri into Sat.




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