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04-12-2019, 11:15   #31
Hooter23
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Its very common for the charts to show cold weather storms etc.... then drop the idea for a couple of days then for it to reappear again
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04-12-2019, 13:35   #32
pauldry
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We always will get the moderated versions of every weather but if we dont hope theres no forum.

The 11th to 16th will be an interesting period if somewhat messy. At least itl be active and not dead mild moist n misty.
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04-12-2019, 18:56   #33
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Looks more of the same to me from what we had in November with largely unsettled weather that may become very wet at times but buckles in the jet stream so cold and wet again. NAO and AO look set to be positive which reinforce this theme. After this lovely opening to December, it can only go downhill I guess.
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04-12-2019, 19:37   #34
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The downgrades have been flying in now. I never like a Northwesterly, for Eastern areas it is just a tease but we are only 4 days into Winter so plenty of FI rollercoasters ahead
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04-12-2019, 20:32   #35
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Originally Posted by sryanbruen View Post
Looks more of the same to me from what we had in November with largely unsettled weather that may become very wet at times but buckles in the jet stream so cold and wet again. NAO and AO look set to be positive which reinforce this theme. After this lovely opening to December, it can only go downhill I guess.
Yesterday I looked at the gfs runs and the cool/cold spell was about 5 days and an unsettled look that wasn't overly wet. Back home this evening and the cool/cold spell is now only about 3 days and much more precipitation spikes compared to yesterday. We could be in for another deluge at some point before Christmas by the looks of it.
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04-12-2019, 20:43   #36
Chris_5339762
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This happens every year, ridiculous charts showing -20 uppers all over Ireland with a great big easterly storm dumping ten meters of snow on Ireland with a return to the ice age and it always fades and people get really really mad and disappointed.

And thats half the fun of this yearly model watching!
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04-12-2019, 20:49   #37
Logan Roy
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Yesterday I looked at the gfs runs and the cool/cold spell was about 5 days and an unsettled look that wasn't overly wet. Back home this evening and the cool/cold spell is now only about 3 days and much more precipitation spikes compared to yesterday. We could be in for another deluge at some point before Christmas by the looks of it.
Ever the optimist
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04-12-2019, 22:33   #38
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Ever the optimist
Just saying what the charts are showing over the next few weeks. As much as i'd love to post about crisp, sunny and frosty winter days or an incoming major snow event, I can't simply because neither are on the way to us over the next 7 to 14 days, unless things change suddenly.
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05-12-2019, 10:25   #39
Slashermcguirk
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It does seem ominous when you look at Stockholm +5 degrees today, southern Poland around krakow nearly +10 degrees. Even Moscow is only hovering around 0. Seems to be very mild around Europe
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05-12-2019, 11:06   #40
rooney30
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Complete laypersons post here, but question for ye . Why do F1 charts fairly regularly throw out very severe cold possibility’s in the distance , when very rarely, if ever , these charts come to pass .?
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05-12-2019, 11:15   #41
esposito
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Complete laypersons post here, but question for ye . Why do F1 charts fairly regularly throw out very severe cold possibility’s in the distance , when very rarely, if ever , these charts come to pass .?
It’s a very good question. I’m not the person to answer this tbh but I’ve often wondered the same.

It’s like the FI charts under estimate the power of the Atlantic/ jet stream far out. Then when it comes to 5-7 days out they seem to be able to pick up the jet stream/Atlantic signals.
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05-12-2019, 12:46   #42
MJohnston
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It appears that people who built the GFS don't even quite know why that happens:
https://www.wired.com/story/the-gove...rm-of-protest/
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05-12-2019, 14:15   #43
pauldry
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Thered be tumbleweed here if FI was boring
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05-12-2019, 15:25   #44
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Complete laypersons post here, but question for ye . Why do F1 charts fairly regularly throw out very severe cold possibility’s in the distance , when very rarely, if ever , these charts come to pass .?
It's just simply that the further out these programmes go,the more spiralled the inaccuracies become resulting eventually sometimes in extreme scenarios
It's a finite science weather forecasting,mother nature is chaos theory personified, meaning once you go beyond the limits of the programme, you enter the realm of the atmosphere doing what it wants to do with its ingredients and obviously totally independent of any weather programme that cannot catch up
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05-12-2019, 15:27   #45
Stevieluvsye
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It's just simply that the further out these programmes go,the more spiralled the inaccuracies become resulting eventually sometimes in extreme scenarios
It's a finite science weather forecasting,mother nature is chaos theory personified, meaning once you go beyond the limits of the programme, you enter the realm of the atmosphere doing what it wants to do with its ingredients and obviously totally independent of any weather programme that cannot catch up
But they are not anomalies when they become the norm. Their programme frequently predicts cold and is more often that not wrong.
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