[BLIZZARD7]

I have yet to fully formulate my thoughts on this winter. I think for the whole solar minimum correlation to show its hand then either this winter or next has to be notably cold. Perhaps if we are lucky then 2020 will mimic 2010 with both the very cold start and end. The science/theory are not this exacting at all though.

As an aside, It will be interesting to see if certain volcanic eruptions around the world trigger a very wet autumn as history might suggest.

[snowstorm445]

My hunch is that at most we will get a cold outbreak similar to 2018 this year (not as severe in intensity but hopefully not so late in the season). Other than that, I can’t see it being that remarkable other than maybe being slightly less mild than last year.

To be honest, the fact that we refer to winters like last year as “exceptionally mild” is a bit optimistic. These winters, sadly, have become the norm over the past decade or so. If every year sees exceptionally mild weather you would be begin to think that it is no longer exceptional. They are definitely mild compared to long term averages but not in terms of recent history.

Other than that I have a sneaking suspicion we will see a lot of storms this autumn/early winter. Some of which might produce cold zonality/wet snow scenarios, so maybe the north, west and southwest could do well there!

[Kermit.de.frog]

An early cold incursion in to the Canadian far north and down in to Hudson Bay.

[Graces7]

If it is of interest. we have a grass frost out here this morning.. west mayo offshore ,,, nippy out here too but very clear and sunny

[sryanbruen]

Originally Posted by BLIZZARD7

I have yet to fully formulate my thoughts on this winter. I think for the whole solar minimum correlation to show its hand then either this winter or next has to be notably cold. Perhaps if we are lucky then 2020 will mimic 2010 with both the very cold start and end. The science/theory are not this exacting at all though.

As an aside, It will be interesting to see if certain volcanic eruptions around the world trigger a very wet autumn as history might suggest.

If you're looking specifically for us to be notably cold in winter based on solar minimum, not sure you will find great success. The whole solar activity theory is based on blocking and -NAO. This summer has been notably -NAO with unprecedented amplitude which one could say is to do with low solar activity but then again, what happened in 2012 between two solar maximum peaks (late 2011 and early 2014)? Was the 2019 -NAO feedback from the final warming in April following a record strong Polar Vortex in February/March?

Did an analysis of "solar minimum winters" using the Central England Temperature for last winter's updates, refer to the table below. The blue highlighted ones are the coldest winter of that solar minimum period. See how it's not always clear cut that we get cold winters. Solar Cycle 7 ended in 1833 and was the cycle that ended the Dalton Minimum era. Winter 1832-33 was slightly colder than 2017-18 overall as a comparison in terms of the CET whilst 1833-34 was exceptionally mild (third mildest on record behind 1868-69 and 2015-16) and 1834-35 quite mild. Another example (these not being the only examples though as you will find from the table below) being Solar Cycle 10 going into 11 where there was no cold winter in terms of the CET during the minimum period, coldest was 1867-68 with 4.5c (before that extreme mild winter of 1868-69 I just mentioned). All dependable on where the blocking sits, can get some severe cold seasons like 1917, 1947, 1963, 1979 or 2010 but you can also get very mild seasons like 1834 and 1869.



Data from UK Met Office.

[Billcarson]

It's more so just after the minimum that we should have a greater chance of a cold winter.so perhaps winter 20/21.
This winter in terms of solar minimum is about where we were at in 2008. Of course that doesnt mean we will get a winter like 2008/9 but if we got a winter like that I wouldn't mind.

[patneve2]

I'm always pessimistic about the winter season in Ireland. After all anything better than a dusting (+2cm) is an event for most of us on this island (unless you live on higher ground). Recently I've been trawling through youtube vids of the 2010 event and I've kind of reached the conclusion that it was a once in a lifetime event (ok maybe twice in a lifetime). Having said that the solar minimum does comfort me a bit, if we are lucky we should see a significant event in Europe within the next few years.

[Captain Snow]

2010 repeat as the SSTs are about the same.

Time will tell

[sryanbruen]

Originally Posted by Captain Snow

2010 repeat as the SSTs are about the same.

Time will tell

Not really. The tripole in 2010 was very much anomalous. In May this year, the tropical Atlantic was close to average and much of North Atlantic was cold bar south of Greenland. Right now, the North Atlantic is warmer than average generally with a cooler area to west of Iberia. The east US SSTs are well above average which does not bode well for a tripole.

[Captain Snow]

Originally Posted by sryanbruen

Not really. The tripole in 2010 was very much anomalous. In May this year, the tropical Atlantic was close to average and much of North Atlantic was cold bar south of Greenland. Right now, the North Atlantic is warmer than average generally with a cooler area to west of Iberia. The east US SSTs are well above average which does not bode well for a tripole.

Its still a Tripole though Atm. We just need HP settling way out west and south to pull in them North easterlies...…. This is the Best Thread we ever had and its Still August.....

[sryanbruen]

Originally Posted by Captain Snow

Its still a Tripole though Atm. We just need HP settling way out west and south to pull in them North easterlies...…. This is the Best Thread we ever had and its Still August.....

Just don’t set yourself up for disappointment. Last year really killed it for me.

[pad199207]

I will look forward to the rarity that is an Air frost this winter.

[Billcarson]

Originally Posted by sryanbruen

Just don’t set yourself up for disappointment. Last year really killed it for me.

And me. I would be very cautious about this winter. But surely it should be better then last winter.

[Gonzo]

Originally Posted by Billcarson

And me. I would be very cautious about this winter. But surely it should be better then last winter.

I'm expecting nothing special this winter, just more of the same typical Irish winter. We get about 1 proper snow event every 10 years, so we are not overdue another one till 2027.

[Calibos]

Why is everyone harking back to 2010. No love for Feb/March 2018??

I mean, personally I have no love for it because while some of you were buried under feet of the white stuff I just had a 2cm layer of slush melting as fast as Storm Emma could drop it thanks to her blowing in natures anti-feeze in off the sea along with the snow. Yeah, I could have walked a mile inland but if I don't have at least 6 inches of the stuff on my literal doorstep, I am bitterly disappointed.

I would have thought 2018 was the ideal for most Snow lovers. Knee deep in the stuff for a week or so with time off work/school, enough to go for walks in Winter wonderlands and build huge snowmen and igloo's with the kids, and for the grown ups, ample opportunity to do a bit o' looting etc...........but no month long disruption like 2010.

Is 2010 getting all the love in this thread because as a meteorological event it was more interesting to weather enthusiasts whereas the short sharp shocks of 2018 were more interesting to the snow lovers?