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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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Looks good, however don't think there is much cold air to our east to get dragged over us even if we get an easterly
It's pie in the sky FI alright. Though I think the GFS FI shows some cold sinking into eastern Europe by that stage. But -10 uppers on the Polish/Russian border isn't too impressive. And an awful lot would have to go right to get to at least -6 uppers from the east here by mid February.
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Strangely enough Greenland is really where it's at this winter. Seriously impressive cold. Synoptics that would bring a flow from there (hard to sustain like an easterly for any period of time though) might be our best shot for February and early next week also.
I've never seen so many 'white' areas of uppers -32 to -40 over Greenland as there has been this January and predicted into FI. The cold is seriously bottled up.
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The coldest I've seen up there on Meteociel reanalysed charts is this from January 1984 (which was a notably cold month for being so unsettled and dominated by northwesterly winds) although the scale doesn't go nearly as far and I have not looked at too many of these.
There is a lack of cold air to be had in the continent this winter as has been said many times but it's also important to keep in mind that continental landmasses can cool down very quickly especially during January to March timeframe. That Scandi High (in the extended frames of the GFS :rolleyes: ) is not quite set up right anyway to give us a very cold easterly as the WAA to our west is displaced, it should be more southerly sourced to inflate the high and send cold air out on the eastern side. 2009 is a perfect example of this.
No sign at all from teleconnections of a pattern change through early February and in fact, there's some evidence of a strengthening of the tropospheric polar vortex again. Rinse and repeat.Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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This poor +120 thread is seeing very little action this winter, we have a month and a few days left to go in winter and only 16 pages of posts. Just for fun I thought I'd post a nice little chart which probably has a 0.01% chance of working out.
This is from one of the lower resolution GFS runs for first week in February. It is out on it's own with no support anywhere else but if it happened we would be plunged into the freezer with -12 uppers just about making it into parts of Ireland from the north.
gets very chilly from the 5th of February with winds going directly into the north.
Bitterly cold especially across Ulster and Leinster with those -12 Uppers.
Still cold by the 8th of February with heights trying to get going over Greenland, staying rather bitter over Ireland.
Still chilly up to the end of the run with the jetsteam well to our south:
This is just for fun, as sadly the chances of this coming off are practically zero at this point. There are signs of brief northerlies on some of the other runs into the second week of February, hopefully we can build on this and expect more of a trend to colder conditions to start showing up more regularly over the next week to 10 days. There is still time to save winter.0 -
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This discussion has been closed.
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