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typhoony · 23-01-2020, 17:06

Quote:

Originally Posted by sryanbruen

The coldest I've seen up there on Meteociel reanalysed charts is this from January 1984 (which was a notably cold month for being so unsettled and dominated by northwesterly winds) although the scale doesn't go nearly as far and I have not looked at too many of these.

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topi...-january-1984/

**Gonzo** · 23-01-2020, 17:18

north westerlies are usually rubbish for most of Leinster, however the north-westerlies did strike white gold in January 2018 for much of Meath, We ended up with 8cm of snow from it over a few hours with prolonged and heavy snow showers. Very rare it is for this to happen.

froog · 23-01-2020, 18:34

so what's the current consensus? ventusky looking like sustained light snow sunday evening right into monday night.

Naggdefy · 23-01-2020, 18:59

Monday 18 January 2005 brought a nice bit of snow to low levels on a northwesterly to KK/Laois.

Same the first Monday evening in February 2013. Just 2 off the top of my head. If the pressure is nice and low with strong winds the showers get across the country.

Naggdefy · 24-01-2020, 12:41

Amazing uppers from the East, March 11 2013. Wonder will we see something similar this year? 6 weeks away still.

Jin luk · 25-01-2020, 08:37

Quote:

Originally Posted by Naggdefy

Monday 18 January 2005 brought a nice bit of snow to low levels on a northwesterly to KK/Laois.

Same the first Monday evening in February 2013. Just 2 off the top of my head. If the pressure is nice and low with strong winds the showers get across the country.

Have u a link to charts for 8th feb i think it was 2009 maybe 2008 my birthday and we got a good snowfall that night am curious to see that 1

Naggdefy · 25-01-2020, 09:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jin luk

Have u a link to charts for 8th feb i think it was 2009 maybe 2008 my birthday and we got a good snowfall that night am curious to see that 1

Here they are.. 2009. 2008 very mild.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arch...region=&mode=0

weisses · 25-01-2020, 12:48

Isn't this thread for model discussion 120 hours onwards ? ...

Jin luk · 25-01-2020, 12:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by Naggdefy

Here they are.. 2009. 2008 very mild.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arch...region=&mode=0

We got plastered that night with white stuff co monaghan.

Jin luk · 25-01-2020, 12:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by weisses

Isn't this thread for model discussion 120 hours onwards ? ...

Were hoping of a repeat on these dates ðŸ˜…

**Gonzo** · 27-01-2020, 13:38

This poor +120 thread is seeing very little action this winter, we have a month and a few days left to go in winter and only 16 pages of posts. Just for fun I thought I'd post a nice little chart which probably has a 0.01% chance of working out.

This is from one of the lower resolution GFS runs for first week in February. It is out on it's own with no support anywhere else but if it happened we would be plunged into the freezer with -12 uppers just about making it into parts of Ireland from the north.

gets very chilly from the 5th of February with winds going directly into the north.

Bitterly cold especially across Ulster and Leinster with those -12 Uppers.

Still cold by the 8th of February with heights trying to get going over Greenland, staying rather bitter over Ireland.

Still chilly up to the end of the run with the jetsteam well to our south:

This is just for fun, as sadly the chances of this coming off are practically zero at this point. There are signs of brief northerlies on some of the other runs into the second week of February, hopefully we can build on this and expect more of a trend to colder conditions to start showing up more regularly over the next week to 10 days. There is still time to save winter.

arctictree · 27-01-2020, 14:38

Some nice cold runs showing up on the GFS perturbations about 10 days out.

typhoony · 27-01-2020, 22:45

Both GFS and ECM possibly picking up on a very cold trend at the end of the model timeframe 4th\5th of February. I certainly think we'll get one more decent cold shot before winter is over. the NH Jet profile after +120 is interesting with it initially weakening in mid-atlantic then follows a buckling of the jet up the western side of Greenland allowing it to regenerate itself into a North Easterly over the UK

**Gonzo** · 28-01-2020, 02:05

looking forward to seeing how the charts evolve tomorrow, several northerlies showing up on the gfs runs with the possibility of properly cold weather even if it's just for a few days. A fairly significant change on the endless mild runs of recent times.

BLIZZARD7 · 28-01-2020, 08:17

Very nice northerly shot on the 00z GFS this morning - Would be nice to get some proper winter weather even if only for a few days.

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23-01-2020, 17:18	#227
Gonzo Moderator Join Date: Aug 1999 Posts: 11,065 Adverts \| Friends Mod: Weather, ZTest	north westerlies are usually rubbish for most of Leinster, however the north-westerlies did strike white gold in January 2018 for much of Meath, We ended up with 8cm of snow from it over a few hours with prolonged and heavy snow showers. Very rare it is for this to happen.

23-01-2020, 18:34	#228
froog Registered User Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 1,356 Adverts \| Friends	so what's the current consensus? ventusky looking like sustained light snow sunday evening right into monday night.

23-01-2020, 18:59	#229
Naggdefy Registered User Join Date: Aug 2019 Posts: 1,212 Adverts \| Friends	Monday 18 January 2005 brought a nice bit of snow to low levels on a northwesterly to KK/Laois. Same the first Monday evening in February 2013. Just 2 off the top of my head. If the pressure is nice and low with strong winds the showers get across the country.

24-01-2020, 12:41	#230
Naggdefy Registered User Join Date: Aug 2019 Posts: 1,212 Adverts \| Friends	Amazing uppers from the East, March 11 2013. Wonder will we see something similar this year? 6 weeks away still.

25-01-2020, 12:48	#233
weisses Registered User Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 7,763 Adverts \| Friends	Isn't this thread for model discussion 120 hours onwards ? ...

27-01-2020, 13:38	#236
Gonzo Moderator Join Date: Aug 1999 Posts: 11,065 Adverts \| Friends Mod: Weather, ZTest	This poor +120 thread is seeing very little action this winter, we have a month and a few days left to go in winter and only 16 pages of posts. Just for fun I thought I'd post a nice little chart which probably has a 0.01% chance of working out. This is from one of the lower resolution GFS runs for first week in February. It is out on it's own with no support anywhere else but if it happened we would be plunged into the freezer with -12 uppers just about making it into parts of Ireland from the north. gets very chilly from the 5th of February with winds going directly into the north. Bitterly cold especially across Ulster and Leinster with those -12 Uppers. Still cold by the 8th of February with heights trying to get going over Greenland, staying rather bitter over Ireland. Still chilly up to the end of the run with the jetsteam well to our south: This is just for fun, as sadly the chances of this coming off are practically zero at this point. There are signs of brief northerlies on some of the other runs into the second week of February, hopefully we can build on this and expect more of a trend to colder conditions to start showing up more regularly over the next week to 10 days. There is still time to save winter.

27-01-2020, 14:38	#237
arctictree Registered User Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 3,426 Adverts \| Friends	Some nice cold runs showing up on the GFS perturbations about 10 days out.

27-01-2020, 22:45	#238
typhoony Registered User Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 953 Adverts \| Friends	Both GFS and ECM possibly picking up on a very cold trend at the end of the model timeframe 4th\5th of February. I certainly think we'll get one more decent cold shot before winter is over. the NH Jet profile after +120 is interesting with it initially weakening in mid-atlantic then follows a buckling of the jet up the western side of Greenland allowing it to regenerate itself into a North Easterly over the UK

28-01-2020, 02:05	#239
Gonzo Moderator Join Date: Aug 1999 Posts: 11,065 Adverts \| Friends Mod: Weather, ZTest	looking forward to seeing how the charts evolve tomorrow, several northerlies showing up on the gfs runs with the possibility of properly cold weather even if it's just for a few days. A fairly significant change on the endless mild runs of recent times.

28-01-2020, 08:17	#240
BLIZZARD7 Registered User Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 1,465 Adverts \| Friends	Very nice northerly shot on the 00z GFS this morning - Would be nice to get some proper winter weather even if only for a few days.