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20-01-2020, 07:00   #5506
M.T. Cranium
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Monday, 20 January, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 20 to 26 Jan 2020 ...

-- Temperatures will be close to normal values except for a few slightly colder locations in the inland south.
-- Rainfall will reach about half of normal values but most of that will only arrive late in the interval.
-- Sunshine will be near normal or a little below in parts of the west and north.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with hazy sunshine at times in parts of the south. A few intervals of drizzle may occur in the north. Highs 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy, but with a few clear breaks in the south, temperatures there could fall to 2 or 3 C, otherwise lows 4 to 7 C.

TUESDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and spotty drizzle near the northwest coasts. Highs 8 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY could see a return to some frost in the south as skies may clear there, lows -2 to +2 C. Otherwise the morning lows will be above freezing, and the day will be mostly cloudy with highs near 10 C.

THURSDAY will see only slight changes with some increase in southwest winds by late afternoon, lows 3 to 5 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

FRIDAY will become breezy or even windy with outbreaks of light rain in the north, lows near 4 C and highs near 9 or 10 C.

SATURDAY will be windy and mild with rain at times, highs 10 to 12 C.

SUNDAY will be windy with partly cloudy skies and passing showers, with a gradual fall in temperatures to around 5 degrees.

MONDAY will be windy with a morning high of about 10 C followed by colder air for a day or two. Milder weather will probably return towards the end of the week (and month).

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with light snow, and milder at about -1 C.
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21-01-2020, 07:35   #5507
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Tuesday, 21 January, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 January 2020

-- Temperatures will be 1 to 2 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will be 25 to 50 per cent of normal, although most of that will wait for the weekend to arrive, so dry until then.
-- Sunshine will be somewhat below average at about 50 to 75 per cent of the normal 2 hours a day.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, light winds except moderate southwesterly near Donegal Bay, and some spotty drizzle is possible near the northwest coasts. Highs 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT may see isolated frost if skies manage to clear for any length of time, but most places will remain cloudy and lows will be generally
3 to 7 C.

WEDNESDAY will be mostly cloudy with some brighter intervals, and highs near 10 C.

THURSDAY will see only slight changes with some increase in southwest winds by late afternoon, lows 3 to 5 C and highs 8 to 10 C. Some rain may reach parts of the north by evening but it will likely stay dry in most other parts.

FRIDAY will become breezy or even windy with outbreaks of light rain in the north, lows near 4 C and highs near 9 or 10 C. Winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr by afternoon in west and north.

SATURDAY will be windy and mild with rain at times, highs 10 to 12 C. Winds southwest to west 70 to 110 km/hr. Temperatures will likely fall rather sharply during the late afternoon and evening.

SUNDAY will be windy with partly cloudy skies and passing showers, with a gradual fall in temperatures to around 5 degrees.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will be windy with outbreaks of rain and highs of about 10 C followed by colder air by Tuesday afternoon, on strong westerly winds 70 to 110 km/hr. Even stronger winds are possible in parts of the west and north.

The OUTLOOK calls for colder air to make a brief appearance around the night of Tuesday 28th into Wednesday 29th, then quickly back to mild temperatures by the end of the week (and month), with a very mild start to February with temperatures well above average.

My local weather has turned rather mild with mostly cloudy skies, some fog or mist around, and highs near 4 C. The snow pack is slumping a little rather than melting, more like 30 cm on the ground now than the previous 50 cm.
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22-01-2020, 07:30   #5508
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Wednesday, 22 January, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 Jan 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 2 deg above normal values (which are roughly 8 for a max, 2 for the min).
-- Rainfall will average about 50% of a normal amount for late January (which is about 25 mm).
-- Sunshine may manage to reach or even exceed normal values (which are 2-2.5 hours a day).

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy and mild with some mist or fog in a few places. Highs 9 to 11 C. Light winds will continue in most areas.

TONIGHT will be cloudy with a few patches of mist or light drizzly rain, lows near 4 C (closer to 7 C near west coast).

THURSDAY will become a little more breezy but otherwise unchanged, cloudy, mild with a bit of light rain or drizzle in some parts of the north. Highs 9 to 12 C.

FRIDAY will be breezy to windy at times, with a small amount of rain in most places (2-5 mm) and highs of 10 to 13 C.

SATURDAY will also be breezy to windy, starting out mild but turning slightly cooler by afternoon, highs near 10 C. Showers will clear and there may be some sunshine at times by afternoon in brisk westerly winds.

SUNDAY will be windy with passing showers and highs near 8 C.

MONDAY looks very windy (southwest 80 to 110 km/hr at least) and wet with highs near 11 C.

The outlook for the following week is for a fast-moving sequence of colder intervals and mild sectors of strong lows, which will bring some brief intervals of heavy rain and intense winds. The details are bound to change before the actual time, but as of now, Wednesday 29th and Friday 31st are timed for the passage of these fast moving and strong weather systems. The pattern beyond that looks about the same as the next few days, cloudy and mild with moderate winds.

Will there be any actual winter weather (aside from our one-day freeze last Sunday?) ... I don't hold out a lot of hope but if it's going to happen at all, then very late February or March would probably be the time for any actual winter especially snowfall on any appreciable scale. Chances seem a bit less than 50-50 that we would see anything like that at all, but first the Atlantic would need to drop its dominant role and if we get another strong blocking high, that would need to be further northeast than this past one which was basically just creating a bit of locally grown cold air rather than bringing it in across open water from a colder source region.

My local weather deserves a four letter word of some kind, so I will go with snow, rain and mist, all three were happening at roughly the same time and it was about 2 deg C. Not much melting or slush at my home elevation but on a trip down into the nearby Columbia valley (closer to 350 m asl) it was very slushy with a nearly similar snow depth down there beginning to melt. Travel agents are doing a brisk business.
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23-01-2020, 07:21   #5509
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Thursday, 23 January, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for week of 23 to 29 Jan 2020

-- Temperatures will be near normal values, mild at first, then sometimes rather cold after Saturday.
-- Rainfall will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.
-- Sunshine will be near or slightly above normal values.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be overcast with widespread fog or mist slowly clearing, highs 8 to 10 C, and still quite calm in many areas, just a moderate southwest breeze near the north and west coasts.

TONIGHT will continue cloudy with fog and mist, lows near 4 C.

FRIDAY will become breezy with outbreaks of light rain in a few parts of the north and west. Highs 9 to 11 C.

SATURDAY will be breezy and mild at first, turning a bit colder by afternoon, as winds veer from southwest to westerly 50 to 80 km/hr. Intervals of light rain (3-5 mm expected) but some clearing by afternoon.

SUNDAY will be rather cold and breezy with passing showers, some of them wintry on higher terrain. Morning lows will be 1 to 3 C and afternoon highs 5 to 8 C.

MONDAY will likely be overcast with occasional rain, and moderately windy at times. There is some risk of stronger winds developing near the south coast, but details remain sketchy and the eventual storm track may be further south from Biscay into southern England. Temperatures will most likely remain around 7 or 8 C.

TUESDAY will become breezy to windy and rather cold with passing showers, some wintry. Highs 4 to 7 C.

WEDNESDAY will then turn milder with rain and strong southwest winds developing, highs near 10 C.

The pattern remains unsettled after that with another disturbance likely around the end of the month (Friday 31st) and temperatures look set to return to rather mild values for the first part of February.

My local weather cleared up briefly which gave us some welcome sunshine, and temperatures near -1 C.
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24-01-2020, 07:27   #5510
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Friday, 24 January, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 24 to 30 Jan 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, mild at first, rather cold from Sunday to Tuesday, then milder again.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.
-- Sunshine will average slightly above normal by 10 to 30 per cent.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with a few brighter intervals developing, mild with highs 9 to 12 C. There could be some patchy drizzle mainly over northern counties. Somewhat breezier than recent days, with south to southwest winds developing (40 to 60 km/hr in some western counties).

TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy with light rain over parts of the north, breezy, and mild with lows 4 to 7 C.

SATURDAY will be breezy and mild with occasional light rain developing from west to east by afternoon and evening, highs 9 to 12 C and winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr.

SUNDAY will become windy and colder with passing showers, some wintry. At first this will be confined mostly to higher elevations but by later in the day could spread to most lower elevations also. Highs 5 to 8 C in brisk westerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr.

MONDAY will also be breezy to windy and cold with passing wintry showers. Models have now dropped most of the energy that was earlier shown over parts of the south, so not much risk of strong winds, but westerlies of 50 to 80 km/hr will add some chill to the day. Morning lows -1 to +2 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

TUESDAY will be windy and cold with wintry showers, some accumulations of snow possible on higher terrain in the north and west, winds westerly 60 to 90 km/hr. Lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

The OUTLOOK for later next week is for milder air to return in moderate to strong southwest winds, highs will return to the 9 to 12 C range again. There may be some rain at times also. The first part of February looks very mild as the southwest flow continues through the first week at least.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with wet snow that has turned to a light sleety rain this evening, not very pleasant but at least there is little melting underway at our location at least. The high was around +1 C.
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25-01-2020, 06:20   #5511
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Saturday, 25 January, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 25 to 31 Jan 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal, but the first half of the interval will become quite cold; this will be more or less balanced out by today and the end of the week both milder than average.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal values.
-- Sunshine will average about 25 per cent above normal too.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy and mild with some brighter intervals in the east and south, rain arriving in the west by late afternoon. Highs 9 to 12 C and winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr.

TONIGHT will bring rain (5-10 mm) and moderate southwest winds, veering westerly before morning in the west. Temperatures will remain above 5 C until a cold front moves through late in the night.

SUNDAY will become windy and quite cold, with passing showers, these becoming increasingly wintry with a growing risk of sleet or snow accumulations mainly on hills in west and north at first, but also at lower elevations by later in the day (and overnight to Monday morning). Highs only 4 to 7 C. Winds southwest to west 50 to 80 km/hr.

MONDAY will be quite windy and cold with wintry showers, some accumulations of snow on hills. Lows 1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 8 C. Winds westerly 60 to 90 km/hr.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy, windy and cold with wintry showers again, lows 1 to 3 C, highs 5 to 8 C, and winds west to northwest 70 to 110 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY will see a gradual moderation in the colder temperatures and fewer if any showers, with partly cloudy skies. Also less windy, temperatures will recover to around 8 or 9 C after a frosty start in some places.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY seem likely to return to the milder southwest winds, rain and strong gusts at times, with highs 10 to 12 C.

The first part of February also looks rather mild although perhaps with a similar up-and-down temperature regime setting in.

My local weather was milder with occasional rain and we now have rather slushy conditions with some of the heavy snow pack melting during the day, with highs reaching 4 C.
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26-01-2020, 08:04   #5512
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Sunday, 26 January, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 26 Jan to 1 Feb 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal, colder at first, but balanced by milder than average readings later in the week.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values, and some of the precipitation will be wintry.
-- Sunshine will average 25 per cent above normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will become windy and quite cold, with passing showers, these becoming increasingly wintry by mid-day or afternoon, with a growing risk of sleet or snow accumulations mainly on hills in west and north at first, but also at lower elevations by later in the day. Temperatures steady or slowly falling in the range of 4 to 7 C. Winds southwest to west 50 to 80 km/hr.

TONIGHT will be windy and mostly cloudy with sleety showers, some accumulations of snow mainly on hills. Lows will fall to about 1 or 2 C. Winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr will add some chill (feeling like -4 C).

MONDAY will be quite windy and cold with wintry showers, some accumulations of snow on hills. Lows 1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 8 C. Winds westerly 60 to 90 km/hr. There may be an interval of stronger winds in Connacht towards evening (westerly 80 to 110 km/hr). Some thunder is likely with the heavier mixed showers.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy, windy and cold with wintry showers again, risk of thunder and hail in some of these showers, with lows 1 to 3 C, highs 5 to 8 C, and winds west to northwest 70 to 110 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY will see a gradual moderation in the colder temperatures and fewer if any showers, with partly cloudy skies. Also less windy, temperatures will recover to around 8 or 9 C after a frosty start in some places. Mainly dry although some isolated outbreaks of light rain. A more general rainfall is likely overnight into Thursday morning.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY seem likely to return to the milder southwest winds, rain and strong gusts at times, with highs 10 to 12 C.

The OUTLOOK for early February is for generally mild weather but with the occasional colder day in the mix as the flow remains westerly mixing in some milder intervals with brief shots of colder air.

My local weather on Saturday was misty with drizzle changing back to wet snow, some greasy accumulations of about 1 or 2 cm, and temperatures slowly falling from about +1 C to -2 C.
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27-01-2020, 07:17   #5513
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Monday, 27 January, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 27 Jan to 2 Feb 2020

-- Temperatures will average near or slightly below normal (quite cold at first, then milder to about Sunday).
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal values. In some parts of the west and north a considerable amount of this will be sleet or snow. The lower averages will likely be in the southeast.
-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal, with the higher values in the south and east.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cold with moderate to strong southwest winds adding chill to daytime highs of 5 to 7 C. There will be frequent sunny intervals for the south and east, with isolated wintry showers. In the west and north, there will also be some sunny breaks but more widespread wintry showers, likely some accumulations of snow on hills in all regions by this evening. Winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr.

TONIGHT will continue windy and cold with passing wintry showers, some clear intervals, and lows -2 to +1 C. The gusty winds will ease somewhat and a few higher roads in rural areas will probably become icy.

TUESDAY will be windy and cold with further wintry showers. Once again, the majority of these will be in the west and north, and over higher terrain mainly in the southeast. Highs 4 to 7 C. Winds southwest to west 50 to 80 km/hr with some higher gusts possible.

WEDNESDAY will see milder air moving in gradually, and a reduction in the wind speeds to 40 km/hr. These will continue westerly then back to southerly later. Skies will be partly cloudy with some higher overcast likely. Morning lows -3 to +1 C and afternoon highs 7 to 10 C.

THURSDAY will become milder again with intervals of light rain, moderate southwest winds and highs near 10 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers and highs 8 or 9 C.

SATURDAY will bring another round of generally light rainfall and highs near 11 C.

SUNDAY will see partly to mostly cloudy skies, isolated showers and highs near 9 C. There may be some stronger winds and rain towards the end of the day (not confirmed due to a spread in guidance at this point).

The outlook for next week is rather uncertain with guidance giving different outcomes, some indications of a dry and cold interval mid-week followed by a gradual return to milder weather.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with light sleet at times and highs near +1 C. This has not been a very active winter by North American standards and few places outside of higher mountains or colder parts of central Canada have seen much snow. The pattern ahead looks more active though.
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28-01-2020, 07:34   #5514
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Tuesday, 28 January, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 28 Jan to 3 Feb 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal values (see forecasts for variations though).
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal values.
-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be windy and cold with further wintry showers. Once again, the majority of these will be in the west and north, and over higher terrain mainly in the southeast. Some parts of the east and south will have longer sunny intervals. Highs 4 to 7 C. Winds southwest to west 50 to 80 km/hr with some higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT will bring some clearing of skies in general, wintry showers more confined to the north, and some frost elsewhere, lows -3 to +2 C. It will become less windy except near the northwest coasts.

WEDNESDAY will see milder air moving in gradually, and a reduction in the wind speeds to 40 km/hr. These will continue westerly then back to southerly later. Skies will be partly cloudy with some higher overcast likely. Morning lows -3 to +1 C and afternoon highs 7 to 10 C.

THURSDAY will become milder again, generally dry with intervals of light rain near the west coast, moderate southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr, morning lows 2 to 5 C and highs near 10 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers and highs 8 or 9 C.

SATURDAY will bring an early band of rain (10-15 mm possible) and highs near 11 C. It will become colder by afternoon and evening.

SUNDAY will be breezy and rather cold with passing showers, highs near 7 C.

The OUTLOOK for next week is currently rather cold and somewhat more wintry than we have seen especially in the east, as winds turn more into a north to northeast direction which could bring snow showers to some places that have escaped them in this current cold spell. Temperatures will fall off to about 2 to 5 C.

My local weather on Monday was overcast with fog over the local hills, and temperatures near 1 deg C.
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29-01-2020, 08:00   #5515
M.T. Cranium
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Wednesday, 29 January, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 29 Jan to 4 Feb 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal values to 1.0 deg above normal (see forecasts for variations though).
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal values.
-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY as milder air moves in gradually, and with a reduction in the wind speeds to 40 km/hr, it should feel considerably milder especially in the west and by later in the day in the north also. The winds will continue westerly for the morning hours, then back to southerly later. Skies will be partly cloudy with some higher overcast likely as well as broken layers closer to hilltop heights. Some places will remain dry and others will have a few light showers but amounts will be generally trace to 2 mm, with afternoon highs 7 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast and rather breezy with a few outbreaks of light rain, lows 3 to 7 C.

THURSDAY will become milder again, with intervals of light rain spreading inland from the west coast, moderate southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr, and highs near 10 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with showers and highs 8 to 11 C.

SATURDAY will bring an early band of rain (10-15 mm possible) with gusty southwest winds 60 to 90 km/hr, and morning lows 7 to 9 C with highs near 11 C. It will become colder by afternoon and evening.

SUNDAY will be windy with occasional rain and highs 8 to 10 C. It may become very windy at times Sunday night into Monday as somewhat colder air arrives on westerly winds. Temperatures on Monday will be in the 6 to 8 C range.

The OUTLOOK is becoming rather uncertain for next week as guidance now splits into two rather different camps. One continues to show that colder interval I mentioned yesterday and would see quite cold temperatures for several days starting later Monday. But other guidance has picked up a signal for intensification of the westerly flow which would cut the cold spell short and return things to the very unsettled, windy and wet mode by mid-week. This set of maps includes some very windy looking days by the period 5 to 8 February. Not quite Darwin but are we not on a very similar schedule this mild and windy winter to 2013-14? And Darwin came along on the 12th of February that year after another rather strong low a few days earlier.

My local weather was mostly cloudy with a few light snow flurries coating the slush with a bit of white, but the sun also made a rare appearance in the afternoon and it was around 1 or 2 deg.
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30-01-2020, 08:07   #5516
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Thursday, 30 January, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 30 Jan to 5 Feb 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal or slightly above (1.0 deg).
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal. There will be a tendency for much of this to fall in the overnight hours due to the timing of weather systems and it will become dry towards the end of the interval.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy, breezy and relatively mild. There may be a few isolated showers in the north but a generally dry day for most. Winds southwest 40 to 70 km/hr, except for stronger gusts near Donegal Bay and the north coast. Highs 10 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will be windy with occasional rain, 5-10 mm expected, most of it after midnight. Winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr and lows near 7 C.

FRIDAY will turn partly cloudy again, with winds slightly diminished by mid-day and afternoon. Highs near 9 C.

SATURDAY will see another round of early morning rainfall with strong southwest winds, then the day will turn slightly colder. Temperatures will be as high as 11 C in the morning and will then fall back to about 7 C later. Winds southwest to west 70 to 110 km/hr.

SUNDAY may start out rather frosty in some parts of the northeast. Cloud will spread in to other regions bringing temperatures back up above freezing. Rain, possibly starting as sleet, will fall at times during the day and into the evening. Temperatures will warm considerably in the south to near 10 C, but may stay lower (4 to 7 C) in the north where any sleet or wet snow will eventually turn to rain.

MONDAY will be breezy and colder again, with falling temperatures and clearing skies by late afternoon after a few passing showers. Highs near 7 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY are likely to be dry, partly cloudy to sunny days, and rather cold with morning frosts and afternoon highs 5 to 8 C. The threat of snow seems to be gone for the time being as winds will stay more northwesterly.

The further OUTLOOK is for a long stretch of very unsettled weather into mid-February with a parade of strong lows expected to develop and occasional winds of alert strength seem likely. Details of course too far ahead to be very specific. We will be lucky to avoid at least one fairly significant windstorm in this pattern though.

My local weather on Wednesday was not very pleasant, a mixture of wet snow and rain fell across the region all day, about 5 cm of new snow accumulated on higher ground but it was mostly rain in the valleys, temperatures between 1 and 3 C and quite foggy as well.
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31-01-2020, 08:02   #5517
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Friday, 31 January, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 31 Jan to 6 Feb 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 1.0 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will become partly cloudy and dry again in most areas, although some passing showers may continue in brisk southwest winds (60 to 100 km/hr) across northern counties. Those strong winds will be felt further south but may be less blustery there at times. Highs 9 to 11 C.

TONIGHT another band of rain is due to cross the country with 5 to 10 mm likely, and winds may peak at about 70 to 110 km/hr with that around midnight to 0600h. The temperatures will stay in the mild 7 to 10 C range.

SATURDAY will see another round of early morning rainfall with strong southwest winds, then the day will turn slightly colder. Temperatures will be as high as 11 C in the morning and will then fall back to about 7 C later. Winds southwest to west 70 to 110 km/hr. The daytime hours may not be as dry in parts of the north as elsewhere, as rather frequent showers or intervals of steady rain may continue across parts of Ulster and north coast Connacht.

SUNDAY may start out rather frosty in some parts of the northeast. Cloud will spread in to other regions bringing temperatures back up above freezing. Rain, possibly starting as sleet, or mixing through the first part of the day, will fall at times from early morning in the south and west, into the evening in most regions. Temperatures will warm up considerably in the south to about 10 to 12 C, but may stay lower (4 to 7 C) in the north where any sleet or wet snow will only gradually turn to mostly rain. Amounts will be 10 to 20 mm.

MONDAY will be breezy and colder again, with falling temperatures and clearing skies by late afternoon after a few passing showers. Highs near 7 C. Some wintry showers may develop in the north. Winds will be westerly 70 to 100 km/hr and may increase to alert status by evening in the north.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY are likely to be dry, partly cloudy to sunny days, and rather cold with morning frosts and afternoon highs 5 to 8 C in the north, to 8 or 9 C in the south. The threat of snow for Leinster seems to be gone for the time being as winds will stay more northwesterly, and any wintry showers will be in the far northwest over hills mostly, and on Tuesday as the higher pressure crests over southern counties by Wednesday.

This dry spell at mid-week may continue several more days with a slow warming trend in southwest winds. Eventually these winds will increase to quite strong and blustery conditions around the following weekend (8-9 Feb) and the week after that looks quite stormy with frequent gales and perhaps occasional windstorm conditions in a very fast westerly flow. Timing these systems from this far out (ten days) would be pointless but the current guidance seems to be suggesting at least four pulses of concentrated energy within a six to seven day interval so there won't be long gaps between the stormy intervals. It may be especially inclement for the Atlantic coastal counties and parts of the midlands exposed to westerly winds. There will be a full moon on February 9th and "king tides" from about 8th to 12th so any of these windy systems arriving in that period could be accompanied by coastal flooding.

My local weather on Thursday was cloudy with a few patches of blue sky and a minute or two of sunshine that resulted, with temperatures rather mild at about 2 C. Despite that we have a fairly uniform 45 cm snow pack that will likely be under some stress by the coming weekend as very mild air is flowing into the western coastal regions and temperatures even this far inland seem likely to soar above 5 C with 12-15 C readings on the coast and into most of the lower inland elevations. Snowmelt will probably be quite considerable at elevations just below our own here (and at the moment the 45 cm pack extends down the slopes to about 600 metres above sea level before it reduces to 20 cm at the Columbia River at 300 metres). In contrast there has not been much snow on the ground all winter at low elevations further south.
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01-02-2020, 08:26   #5518
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Saturday, 1st of February, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 1 to 7 Feb 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 1 to 2 deg above normal values (which are currently about 8 C max, 2 C min).
-- Rainfall will average 50% of the normal amount for early February (about 20 mm a week).
-- Sunshine will average 25% above the normal values (which are around 2.3 hours a day).

FORECASTS

TODAY ... temperatures are near their maximum for the day already and will begin to drop off gradually by late morning or mid-day, settling in around 7 to 9 C this afternoon. The blustery southwest winds will gradually moderate and skies will turn partly cloudy, with little if any further rainfall until late tonight. However, some showers or intervals of steady rain may re-develop later across parts of Ulster and north coast Connacht.

TONIGHT will start out rather cold in north Leinster and Ulster with a slight frost possible for a time, followed by rising temperatures and sleety rain. Elsewhere, temperatures will also be rising but from a higher base (3 to 6 C) and rain will likely not be mixed with snow except on higher summits. Moderate south to southwest winds will set in with the rainfall.

SUNDAY may start out rather frosty in some parts of the northeast. Cloud will spread in to other regions bringing temperatures back up above freezing. Rain, possibly starting as sleet, or mixing through the first part of the day, will fall at times from early morning in the south and west, into the evening in most regions. Temperatures will warm up considerably in the south to about 10 to 12 C, but may stay lower (4 to 7 C) in the north where any sleet or wet snow will only gradually turn to mostly rain. Amounts will be 10 to 20 mm.

MONDAY will be breezy and colder again, with falling temperatures and clearing skies by late afternoon after a few passing showers. Lows near 4 C and highs near 7 C. Some wintry showers may develop in the north. Winds will be westerly 70 to 100 km/hr and may increase to alert status by evening in the north.

TUESDAY will be breezy and rather cold with passing showers that may be wintry in some places in the north, but a clearing trend will develop by afternoon. Winds west-northwest 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

WEDNESDAY may bring slight frosts to parts of the inland south, lows generally -2 to +3 C, then sunny intervals with increasing high cloud during the day, lighter winds and highs 7 to 9 C.

THURSDAY will probably stay dry too with slightly milder temperatures in a developing southwest flow, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 8 to 11 C.

FRIDAY will be cloudy with occasional light rain and moderate southwest winds, highs near 11 C.

The OUTLOOK remains very unsettled and even stormy at times into the weekend of 8th-9th Feb and beyond. Some charts around the 9th-10th are looking close to "orange alert" status for westerly winds and as this would coincide with full moon, storm surge issues may develop around Galway Bay and on the west coast in general. During the following week it may remain very windy at times with further storm warnings possible then too.

My local weather on Friday was overcast, foggy and mild with some light rain at times. Temperatures have edged up to around 4 C and will peak at about 6 C later today. There is some standing water from melting of a portion of the heavy snow pack here, and a growing avalanche risk in all the western mountain ranges for the coming few days.
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02-02-2020, 07:26   #5519
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Sunday, 2 February, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 2 to 8 Feb 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1.0 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 30 to 50 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal amounts.


FORECASTS

TODAY will become partly cloudy with isolated showers, more likely in north and west, with slight risk of hail or thunder. Moderate southwest winds will continue but may become stronger towards late afternoon, 50 to 80 km/hr. Highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will turn rather cold and windy with passing showers, winds westerly 60 to 90 km/hr with higher gusts in the northwest coastal counties. Lows 2 to 5 C.

MONDAY will be breezy to windy and cold with passing showers, a few of them wintry on higher terrain in the north. Winds west to northwest at 50 to 80 km/hr. Highs 5 to 8 C.

TUESDAY will start out with more mixed wintry showers and gusty northwest winds but there will be a slow clearing trend with winds moderating towards the afternoon. Lows -1 to +3 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring slight frosts to the inland south, followed by increasing daytime cloud but mainly dry weather, less windy also, with lows -2 to +3 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

THURSDAY will be breezy and mild with mostly cloudy skies, patchy light rain near west and north coasts. Lows 3 to 7 C and highs 9 to 12 C.

FRIDAY will also be mild but with stronger winds and more widespread light rain, lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C.

The OUTLOOK continues to be quite unsettled and it may become very windy at times by Sunday 9th and Monday 10th.

For the monthly outlook, would expect February to average 1 to 2 deg above normal values and produce near average amounts of rainfall, more frequent strong winds. January's outlook seems to have done fairly well as the month came in almost 1 deg above normal around the country and rainfall was generally about 80% of normal (somewhat heavier in Connacht than most places).

My local weather on Saturday was quite mild at first with temperatures peaking around 7 C, then some heavy wet snow showers developed with gusty westerly winds. Temperatures fell to about -2 C this evening and there's some ice around again, after we lost about half of the former 40-45 cm snow pack in the mild spell.
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03-02-2020, 08:15   #5520
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Monday, 3 February, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 3 to 9 Feb 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1.0 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 30 to 50 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal amounts.


FORECASTS

TODAY will become quite windy and cold with some sunny intervals this morning in east and south, followed by more widespread passing showers now starting to develop in west and north, a few of them wintry on higher terrain in the north. Winds west to northwest at 50 to 80 km/hr with possible higher gusts by afternoon and evening in some parts of the north. Highs 5 to 8 C.

TONIGHT will be windy and cold with a few more wintry showers likely, some accumulations of snow possible on hills in northern Connacht and west Ulster. Lows -1 to 3 C.

TUESDAY will start out with more mixed wintry showers and gusty northwest winds but there will be a slow clearing trend with winds moderating towards the afternoon. Lows -1 to +3 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring slight frosts to the inland south, followed by increasing daytime cloud but mainly dry weather, and less windy also, especially for the south and east, lows -2 to +3 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

THURSDAY will be breezy and mild with mostly cloudy skies, patchy light rain near west and north coasts. Lows 3 to 7 C and highs 9 to 12 C.

FRIDAY will also be mild but with stronger winds and more widespread light rain, lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C. Strong southwest winds are likely by the evening and overnight hours (60 to 100 km/hr).

SATURDAY will be windy and rather cold with intervals of light rain and southwest winds 60 to 100 km/hr, lows near 4 C and highs near 8 C.

SUNDAY and possibly also MONDAY will be very windy (westerly 80 to 130 km/hr potentially) with risk of storm surge conditions on the west coast, squally showers, and temperatures steady 8 to 10 C.

The OUTLOOK for the following week continues to be quite unsettled and it may become very windy again by Tuesday 11th into Wednesday 12th, with another peak of wind speeds around 80 to 130 km/hr possible then as well. This fast westerly pattern appears locked in for several weeks now and there are no real signs of change in that even as far ahead as the 20th of February.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and rather cold, with icy conditions due to the freeze following Saturday's brief thaw. Highs were around -4 C and this evening it has fallen off to around -10 C.
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