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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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GFS 12Z has upped the wind speeds for over next weekend, more so than the ECM 0Z . Will see if the ECM 12Z follows suit.
Both showing a windy Monday 10th, ECM has the LP closer the next day than the GFS. Long way off of course.
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The AO was extremely positive for much of January (it has been positive the entire winter). There is the possibility of record breaking AO positivity over the next two weeks, off the scale type stuff, keeping zonality absolutely locked in over the next few weeks. This is pretty much the final nail in the coffin for Winter 2019/2020. Westerlies will be the only game in town for probably the rest of February.
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ECM 12Z just out and not going for much wind next Saturday , showing it becoming very windy on Sunday into the early hours of Monday morning, windy throughout the day and then to Tues into Weds ......... Well, that is out at about 220 hrs and firmly in FI but the ECM has been showing a deepening storm with a large wind field track off the NW getting down to 935 hPa on the latest run and showing very severe weather potential. Been hinting at some inclement weather for next week now for a number of runs.
850 hPa Winds
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Artane2002 wrote: »The GFS 18z is showing some sort of a snowstorm on the 11th with a very tight gradient over England. It obviously won't happen but it's something to look at!
theres the snow storm:
looks very cold that day too:
I would agree there is probably about a 0.0000001% chance of this happening, a cold Atlantic flow but no real cold air in place, snow maybe for the highest peaks but widespread disruptive snow across the south from a westerly is about as likely as 30C from a westerly in August! Even if there was cold air in place from an easterly or northerly, Ireland usually has a rough time with anything wintry turning to rain very quickly once the Atlantic is involved.0 -
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ECM and GFS quite similar now for strengthening winds Sat Evening into Sunday and becoming very windy across the country on Sunday. Also some high rainfall totals showing up at this stage ( lucky that we will be after a fairly dry week ), more so the Western side of the country, all finer details subject to change but certainly trending very unsettled over the weekend into next week.
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Both ECM and GFS showing very strong or stormy conditions around late Tues or Weds, different timing and the track has been changing from run to run but looks like there could be some sort of stormy conditions around then, GFS toaday showing a direct hit in the Southern half of the country and ECM showing something similar if not as strong. These charts will continue to change but looks like something might be brewing.
Current tracks, which will more than likely be different in the next run but just an idea where it is at, very deep , fast moving, GFS deepening on approach, ECM just starting to fill. The storm has a long track to cover and all depends on the jets position. Models showing very steep temperature gradients and both showing very cold air could be pulled in from the W or N/W producing wintry conditions , snow a possibility. A lot of weather happening from the Weekend .
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GFS starting to see more sense from the low pressure on the 11th of February, the uppers now clearly show a warm sector over Ireland which would mean mostly rain, however the days either side of this are colder and possibly wintry. The main thing to notice about this period is probably the wind, looks very windy indeed.
looks fairly chilly overall from the 10th to the 14th of February, but this is zonal cold, so there is the possibility these days may downgrade the chill as times get closer. Certainly looks very unsettled in this period with plenty of wind and rain and maybe some wintryness.0 -
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ECM 12C showing strong W'ly winds across the country on Sunday ,windy on Monday Tuesday ,wintry and bitter cold with temperatures probably in the 4 to 6C range or thereabouts, considerable windchill likely.
ECM 12Z showing that storm take a more Nly route on Weds away from Ireland on the latest run, showing Ireland avoiding the strongest winds. Has another system hot on it's heels coming close to Ireland around Thursday .
Probably a temperature rise with heavy rain on Weds and could get very cold again and wintry on Thursday.
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Artane2002 wrote: »That run gave me a good laugh, I don't think I've ever laughed at a model run before! It was showing widespread snow and severe winds, with off-the-scale 150+ km/h gusts touching the south coast and later on the east coast!!
We said similar about Ophelia and Emma
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Kermit.de.frog wrote: »Plenty of snow showers would be rattling through here
*like*
Hopefully on a more widespread scale and not just limited to the north and west.0 -
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Sleety_Rain wrote: »No comment
Gusts of over 150km/h in Dublin as well as other places! That would be destructive indeed. The GFS obviously as we all know has a tendency to overdo lows so it's hard to take seriously.0 -
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This discussion has been closed.
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