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View Poll Results: What impact will the sun's deep minima have on the future climate?
Climate getting progressively cooler through next solar cycles 282 43.19%
No impact 142 21.75%
Global warming is here to stay 124 18.99%
Calm before the solar storm of 2012-2013 105 16.08%
Voters: 653. You may not vote on this poll

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18-10-2009, 00:40   #106
jkforde
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Where's the option "It's too much man, let it all hang out" in this survey!?

And I notice the self-centred anthropocentric word 'our' in the posed question. Oh dear, us and our damn conciousness. Listen, every other species will either adapt and survive or will be reduced in population towards extinction, such is Darwin's world. So the question is what impact will solar minima have on Homo sapiens, because the planet will do what a planet does regardless of our temporary infection.

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18-10-2009, 20:40   #107
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Ok, so we've had 3 crap summers in a row, where the jet stream was very reluctant to move north and we're in the middle of the deepest solar minimum in 100 years. So what were the summers like (in this part of the world) around 1911? Anyone know where to find out? And if solar cycle 24 continues to ramp up slowly, what's the prospects for next years summer?
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19-10-2009, 12:41   #108
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Long, hot summer: The Great British heatwave of 1911


On 17 July, 1911, most of the country was perspiring in 80F (27C) temperatures. It became too hot to work after midday, so the managers of the cotton mills and stone quarries in Clitheroe, Lancashire, decided to shut down in the middle of the afternoon. To compensate for lost hours, the quarrymen's day would now begin at first light, 4.30am.

The managers were delighted that the Daylight Savings Bill had not yet been made law, so they were able to take advantage of the early dawn.
The Times began to run a regular column under the heading "Deaths From Heat". And the weathermen forecast that temperatures would continue to rise.

By 20 July there had been 20 consecutive days without rain, and Richard Stratton, an elderly farmer in Monmouth, reported gathering his earliest harvest since 1865.
Schoolgirl Amy Reeves, aged 10, took off her boots and stockings and left them on the grass beside a shallow pond at Longcross near Chertsey in Surrey. She was discovered drowned later that afternoon, her head caught in the weeds beneath the water.

Two days later fires began to break out spontaneously along the railway tracks at Ascot, Bagshot and Bracknell, and the gorse on Greenham Common in Newbury caught light.
In London the sky seemed unusually clear, and in King's Lynn in Norfolk a temperature of 92F (33C) broke all previous records for that part of the country.

Motorised fire-engines tested their water jets for the first time on St Paul's Cathedral. The water reached the 365ft-high dome, well above the cross.
By the end of July the combined effects of lack of rain and scorching sun had resulted in a dangerous scarcity of grass for herds and flocks. Pastures had turned brown. Farmers were being forced to raise the price of milk.

On 28 July the nature correspondent of The Times reported that even in the deepest, most sheltered lanes it was impossible to find green leaves and with a note of despair that "the crannies and rifts in walled Sussex hedgerows where one looks for rare ferns and other treasures hold only handfuls of dry dust".
Nor was that all: "The most sorrowful sign of all is the silence of the singing birds. July is never a very musical month. This year however all the sylvan music has been mute. The silence of a parched countryside."
At the beginning of August the constitutional health of England was beginning to falter badly in the continuing heat.

Only at the London Zoo in Regent's Park were there any signs of enjoyment of the oppressive temperatures. Although the keepers' thick uniforms had been replaced with special lightweight jackets, their charges were thriving in the heatwave.
The lion cubs, cheetahs, leopards and jackals in the King's Collection had become unusually active and the lordly ungulates, the rhinoceros and giraffe, strode round their enclosures happier than they had been since leaving the large sunny plains of their homelands.

The royal party had arrived at Cowes, on the Isle of Wight, for the Regatta, "an enchanting picture of gleaming sails and gently swaying masts", and the King, George V, and the Prince of Wales, the future Edward VIII, had taken to cooling themselves with a pre-breakfast swim in Osborne Bay.
But the press had quickly discovered this secluded place. As cameramen jostled to get their shots of the sovereign and his heir in bathing dress, a statement was issued by Buckingham Palace: "If less objectionable behaviour is not observed by the photographers they are warned that steps will be taken to stop the nuisance."

Many miles from the seashore, an infinitely more newsworthy if less obviously photogenic sequence of events was taking place.
In London on the first day of the month the temperature maintained a steady 81F, and just as the dock owners were hoping that the strike action of earlier in the summer was a thing of the past, between four and five thousand men employed in the Victoria and Albert Docks stopped work, and the place was at a standstill.

That August the striking men were at least relieved to be out in the open wider streets of central London. With its narrow alleys, cramped and airless at the best of times, the East End had become intolerable in the August weather.
In filthy six-storey tenement buildings with narrow stone staircases, four or five people might share not just one room but one bed, crammed into a 12ft by 10ft space, a baby squashed in one corner, a banana crate for its cot. The air was thick with the rankness of unwashed bedding and stale food.

Even during the stifling summer nights there was little chance of rest, according to one exhausted mother, for "throughout the hours of darkness - which were not hours of silence - the sleepless folk talked incessantly."
Across the country the sun continued to burn down, and the hum of activity in meadow and field ceased. The water pump and the well in the village of High Easter in Dunmow, Essex, both ran dry.

Taking advantage of cloudless skies, many keen but inexperienced car drivers had saved up their petrol and took their chance on the roads.
Mr and Mrs George Cain from Yarmouth, Norfolk, skidded on the hot slippery tarmacadam surface of the Yarmouth streets and struck an electric cable. The car was hurled across the pavement and Mrs Cain's sister, Miss Smith, was impaled on the adjoining railings.

At Ditchling in Sussex a newspaper delivery boy drove into an oncoming horse, his van crumpling on impact as the horse was crushed to death on the bonnet.
By late August lassitude had begun to further weaken the nation's energy, as the hot weather hung over England like a brocade curtain. The relentless sunshine seemed to have bleached the colour from life, replacing it with an oppressive haze.

City dwellers were worst affected, and that year holidays as a means of escape were in fashion as never before. Summer holidays had been increasing in popularity over the years since the 1871 Bank Holiday Act had entitled everyone to a day off on Whit Monday in May and another in early August, just as everyone was due days off at Christmas and Easter. But these new work-free days were intended for unrestricted freedom in the sun, rather than for religious contemplation.

In 1911, 55 per cent of the British population were taking the minimum of a one-day trip to the sea in the summer. Some work places, including paradoxically the railway companies themselves, had begun to introduce paid holidays longer than the customary half-day, and the double advantages of good weather and financial security for sometimes as much as a week combined with the ever-improving transport services to make England's coastline a crowded place that August.

There, in the simple, cost-free pleasures of sunshine, sand and water, a fleetingly realisable equality was to be found by the poor, the suffragettes, the trade unionists, and even the parliamentarians.
Sun-darkened skin was still considered most undesirable, the give-away sign of an outside labourer, and special creams to counteract accidental tanning were advertised in the women's magazines. The Lady helpfully advised the use of "Sulpholine" lotion, "a simple remedy for clearing the skin of eruptions, roughness and skin discoloration."

A greater hazard even than sunburn was the risk of exposing naked flesh in public. On many bathing beaches the sexes were still segregated, although at Bexhill in Sussex the experiment of mixed bathing had attracted much excited comment.

A cautious entry from a bathing-machine was the recognised means of making bodily contact with the sea, though at a shilling a time it was not cheap. In the town hall at Broadstairs, Kent, a conservative-minded town (in 1911 it was still being promoted in the South Eastern and Chatham Railway Handbook as Charles Dickens's favourite resort), a large unmissable notice in the hall cautioned that "No female over eight years shall bathe from any machine except within the bounds marked for females." It hung next to a second poster warning that "Bathing dresses must extend from the neck to the knees."

These rules were accepted unquestioningly and were clearly not seen as restrictions, for the editor of the Handbook felt able to boast that Broadstairs was "one of the freshest and freest little places in the world".
The fully enclosed bathing machine was a sort of garden shed with wheels at one end, its walls and roof made either of wood or canvas. Men and women would enter the machine from the back, while it was parked high up from the water line on the gender-segregated beach.

In the pitch-black hut, windowless in order to discourage any peering in, bathers would remove their clothes and put them up high on a shelf inside the machine to keep them dry, before struggling in the dark with the elaborate costume required for swimming.
A sharp tap from inside was the agreed signal for a horse, a muscly man or even occasionally a mechanical pulley contraption to drag the whole machine and its human contents to a line just beyond the surf.

There the bather could slip discreetly into water up to the neck, with no chance of any part of the body being exposed to the view of those who remained on the beach. At the point of entry there was usually an attendant, irrationally sometimes of the opposite sex. Some ladies looked forward to the moment of being lifted into the sea by strong local arms more than any other part of their holiday.
By early September, summer was not quite ready to release its long hold on the year.

There was a feeling that month of a youthful boldness, a feeling which stretched beyond the school walls. On 6 September Thomas W Burgess, aged 37, covered in lard and stark naked except for a pair of thick motorist's goggles and a black rubber bathing cap, stepped into the sea at Folkestone to make his 16th attempt to reach France by swimming across the Channel.

Despite numerous attempts over the last 36 years, no one had succeeded in this since Matthew Webb reached Calais in August 1875. Webb was not there to wave Burgess into the water; he had been killed in 1883 trying to swim the Niagara Falls in Canada.

Averaging a mile and three-quarters an hour and accompanied by a boat whose crew fed him a grape from time to time and 11 drops of champagne every 30 minutes, Burgess followed the irregular course dictated by the tide, a route he described as "a figure of a badly written capital M with a loop on first down stroke".

After 37 miles and with only two and a half left to swim he sensed himself entering foreign waters, and was promptly stung badly by a cluster of poisonous pink French jellyfish. To show he was in no way offended, he asked the boat crew to start singing "La Marseillaise", and to their accompaniment he landed on the beautiful deserted beach at Le Chatelet near Sangatte.

On the day of the swim the temperature recorder at South Kensington registered 92F, and people found themselves crossing over to the shady side of the street. There was still a severe water shortage in pockets of the country, wool workers in Bradford Mills being laid off because there was no water for the night-time cleaning of the wool.

On 11 September the average temperature suddenly dropped by 20 degrees and The Times forecast good news: "The condition over the kingdom as a whole is no longer of the fine settled type of last week and the prospects of rain before long appear to be more hopeful for all districts."
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19-10-2009, 13:37   #109
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be gob, wouldn't mind that next summer. Beats heading abroad for a bit of sun and after this Christmas Budget, it doesn't look likely many will be able to head for a forign holiday next year
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19-10-2009, 13:58   #110
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some info for you

BEST SUMMERS

1887
The driest year of the 19th century. A quarter of the average rainfall fell in parts of the country in June with none in Devon and Cornwall. But the drought meant streams and rivers dried up and crops suffered.

1893
Mile End in East London clinched the record for the longest run of days without rain. From March 4 to May 15 - 73 days.

1911
July was hot and constantly sunny with Epsom notching up 36C and Hastings enjoying 384 hours of sun. August saw Raunds, Northamptonshire notch up 36.7C and even on September 8 it reached 34.6C.

1976
Standpipes in the street and adverts telling us to share a bath. The hottest summer since records began brought drought but a glorious summer. From June 23 to July 17 there were 15 days of 32C.
Heathrow saw 52 days above 25C. There was little rain until the end of August.

2003
The hottest day in British history was notched up six years ago today in Faversham, Kent, when 38.5C was recorded. But a dispute over the reading means that the 38.1C at Kew Gardens on the same day stands as the official record. Scotland notched up a new record high, too, with 32.9C set at Greycrook in the Borders, beating a record set in 1908.


WORST SUMMERS

1816
There were no bikinis on the beaches of Worthing this year (not that they had been invented, mind). 1816 saw temperatures that would make a penguin reach for a muffler. Averages were 12.8C for June, 13.4C for July and 13.9C for August. Cold spells around the world were thought to have been triggered by low solar activity and volcanos spewing ash into the atmosphere.

1879
One of the coldest summers for the previous 160 years, the warmest it got was 26.8C in Norfolk. It was also the wettest summer in the North East until just two years ago.

1903
London suffered the wettest month on record with a third of its rainfall dropping in two weeks in June. In Camden, rain fell continuously from 1pm on the 13th to 11.30pm two days later - 58 hours and 30 minutes. The record still stands.

1909
The coldest June for 230 years, dropping to 10C. July wasn't much better and from May 23 to August 6 temperatures didn't climb above 27C.

1954
At Tynemouth not a single ray of sun was seen from August 16 to 24.

WEIRDEST SUMMERS

1906
A scorching day on September 1 saw Manchester City take on Woolwich Arsenal in 32C heat. The part-time players, on a diet of beer and cigarettes, soon began to wilt under the heat and three City players were out of the game before half-time. The team finished with just six players - but sporting Arsenal kept the score low at just 4-1.

1913
The saying goes that the weather on St Swithin's day, July 15, will set the tone for the next 40. But in 1913 15 hours of rain was followed by 31 days of sun from 40 in London.

1936
The temperature dropped to 1.1C overnight on August 29 in Rickmansworth, Herts. But by the middle of the afternoon the thermometer had soared to 29.4C.

1975
The latest snow storms recorded fell across Britain in early June, as far south as Surrey. The Derbyshire v Lancashire cricket match at Buxton was cancelled due to snow.

1982
Newcastle managed to go from June 17 to 26 with just 20 minutes of sun.

STORMIEST SUMMERS

1843
One of the worst storms to batter Britain happened on August 9. Hail stones as big as pigeon eggs fell, forming huge drifts. Small tornadoes uprooted trees and wrecked roofs. Crops were flattened which led to a poor harvest.

1906
Britain basked in a heatwave during July. But on August 2 the weather broke in Guildford and the storm saw almost continuous lightning and fierce wind, uprooting trees, knocking holes in the bridge and demolishing houses. At the station trains were lifted off their tracks.

1912
A devastating flood hit Norfolk when a quarter of average annual rainfall fell on August 25. The previous high water mark in Norwich was exceeded by 15ins. Three drowned. 8,000 made homeless.

1939
Lightning killed seven people and injured 19 when storms swept London. The dead were on a day out in Ilford's Valentines Park when they sheltered in a hut. But lightning struck the iron roof with devastating consequences.

1958
The biggest hailstone recorded hit West Sussex in Horsham, creating a 60 mm crater. It weighed nearly five ounces and was 10cms across.



norwich readings 1913-1942



















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20-10-2009, 14:18   #111
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update

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 18 days
2009 total: 229 days (79%)
Since 2004: 740 days
Typical Solar Min: 485 days
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20-10-2009, 17:23   #112
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Detailed observations of sunspots have been obtained by the Royal Greenwich Observatory since 1874.

These observations include information on the sizes and positions of sunspots as well as their numbers. These data show that sunspots do not appear at random over the surface of the sun but are concentrated in two latitude bands on either side of the equator.

A butterfly diagram (updated monthly) showing the positions of the spots for each rotation of the sun since May 1874 shows that these bands first form at mid-latitudes, widen, and then move toward the equator as each cycle progresses.


Notice too how sunspot numbers have increased alot from solar cycle 15.





Today's sun




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21-10-2009, 19:11   #113
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a little spoilsport.

Daily Sun: 21 Oct. 09



Tiny new-cycle sunspot 1028, which emerged yesterday for a few hours, is already fading away.


i wonder would a spot like that have even been noticed in times of the maunder and dalton minimums to break a lenghty spotless sun.

i seriously doubt it.

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22-10-2009, 00:33   #114
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Saw this report on sky news in august,only came across it now on youtube, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09h48RJiQM0
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22-10-2009, 20:49   #115
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redsunset View Post
Saw this report on sky news in august,only came across it now on youtube, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09h48RJiQM0

lost me on the odd and even cycles , can you explain the point he was trying to make
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22-10-2009, 22:02   #116
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lost me on the odd and even cycles , can you explain the point he was trying to make

I think it's something to do with magnetic fields co-inciding and opposing on alternate cycles. Must read up on it again in one of the links further up this thread.
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23-10-2009, 00:38   #117
Redsunset
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Quote:
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lost me on the odd and even cycles , can you explain the point he was trying to make
This video from piers should help you understand that better.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Qi8oZ2vG0c



im also gonna email piers and ask alot of questions,so hopefully he'll respond so i can share it with you all.

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23-10-2009, 23:22   #118
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All-time October low recorded in Bavaria

Published: 20 Oct 09 16:36 CET
Online: http://www.thelocal.de/society/20091020-22693.html
Meteorologists on Tuesday morning recorded the lowest ever October temperature in Germany, as the mercury dipped to a chilly -24.3 degrees Celsius in Bavaria’s Berchtesgaden national park.
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24-10-2009, 00:11   #119
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Sunspot activity has shown an increase since the long quiet spell of July-September 2009 (51 days in a row with a blank solar surface), but it’s certainly nothing to crow about just yet.
A pronounced sunspot group helped push the solar 10.7cm radio flux to its highest level in 18 months in late September; since then, a 19-day blank streak resumed the march of sunspot-less days which now ranks 6th for any year since 1900.
A weak sunspot briefly formed for only a matter of hours on October 21st ; but there’s an indication of another very minimal one forming.
None of these events signal any type of dramatic uptrend in solar activity; in fact, the sun was far more active as to sunspot counts in October 2008 than observed thus far in October 2009 (thru Oct 21).

As I have stated in numerous previous sunspot posts, trends make or break either an ending or continuance of this deep solar minimum.
The radio flux “spike” in late September was significant, but until the overall solar flux and sunspot activity holds a consistent trend for a few months, we are still placed in the position of “hide and watch”.
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24-10-2009, 09:05   #120
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just listening to this now, seems interesting

http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2009/Plimer.html


Ian Plimer
Author


Heaven and Earth: Global Warming, the Missing Science



Climate, sea level, and ice sheets have always changed, and the changes observed today are less than those of the past. Climate changes are cyclical and are driven by the Earth's position in the galaxy, the sun, wobbles in the Earth's orbit, ocean currents, and plate tectonics. In previous times, atmospheric carbon dioxide was far higher than at present but did not drive climate change. No runaway greenhouse effect or acid oceans occurred during times of excessively high carbon dioxide. During past glaciations, carbon dioxide was higher than it is today. The non-scientific popular political view is that humans change climate. Do we have reason for concern about possible human-induced climate change?

This book's 504 pages and over 2,300 references to peer-reviewed scientific literature and other authoritative sources engagingly synthesize what we know about the sun, earth, ice, water, and air. Importantly, in a parallel to his 1994 book challenging creation science, Telling Lies for God, Ian Plimer describes Al Gore's book and movie An Inconvenient Truth as long on scientific misrepresentations. Trying to deal with these misrepresentations is somewhat like trying to argue with creationists, he writes, who misquote, concoct evidence, quote out of context, ignore contrary evidence, and create evidence ex nihilo.

Ian Plimer, twice winner of Australia's highest scientific honor, the Eureka Prize, is professor in the School of Earth and Environmental Sciences at The University of Adelaide and is author of six other books written for the general public in addition to more than 120 scientific papers.
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