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The sun is dead!! Mini iceage???

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    We are officially into Solar Cycle 25 according to NOAA..

    https://www.weather.gov/news/201509-solar-cycle

    They state that solar minimum occurred in December 2019 and we are heading towards a solar maximum in 2025.

    They predict solar cycle 25 to be small but similar to solar cycle 24. They are not expecting there to be any Maunder type minimum approaching after that.

    But then again these solar predictions are very hard to make so anything is still possible in that respect, and we will probably know a lot more when this cycle progresses to see how right they are.

    They got the last cycle prediction completely wrong.

    Im sticking with zharakova. She hasnt been wrong with solar cycle prediction yet.

    But NASA agree with her (now) that this cycle will be similar to the last. Its the solar cycle after that, where Zharkova says the cycle will bottom out.

    Time will tell I guess.

    Edit: her latest editorial..
    https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23328940.2020.1796243


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,822 ✭✭✭✭silverharp


    SeaBreezes wrote: »
    They got the last cycle prediction completely wrong.

    Im sticking with zharakova. She hasnt been wrong with solar cycle prediction yet.

    But NASA agree with her (now) that this cycle will be similar to the last. Its the solar cycle after that, where Zharkova says the cycle will bottom out.

    Time will tell I guess.

    does that mean if were to "notice anything" definitive it would be the far side of 2030?

    A belief in gender identity involves a level of faith as there is nothing tangible to prove its existence which, as something divorced from the physical body, is similar to the idea of a soul. - Colette Colfer



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,682 ✭✭✭firemansam4


    SeaBreezes wrote: »
    They got the last cycle prediction completely wrong.

    Im sticking with zharakova. She hasnt been wrong with solar cycle prediction yet.

    But NASA agree with her (now) that this cycle will be similar to the last. Its the solar cycle after that, where Zharkova says the cycle will bottom out.

    Time will tell I guess.

    I didn't think they were that far out. In 2009 they predicted the cycle peak to be in May 2013with a maximum sunspot number of 90.
    The peak actually happened in April 2014 with maximum sunspots of 114.

    I guess we will know more about this cycle when we get close to maximum, but we may not find out if another Maunder type minimum is likely for maybe another 10 or 11 years.

    NOAA actually predict that solar cycles will start going up in intensity again after this one so it will be very interesting to see how it pans out, we are just going to have to wait many years for it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    I didn't think they were that far out. In 2009 they predicted the cycle peak to be in May 2013with a maximum sunspot number of 90.
    The peak actually happened in April 2014 with maximum sunspots of 114.

    I guess we will know more about this cycle when we get close to maximum, but we may not find out if another Maunder type minimum is likely for maybe another 10 or 11 years.

    NOAA actually predict that solar cycles will start going up in intensity again after this one so it will be very interesting to see how it pans out, we are just going to have to wait many years for it.

    yeah. She predicted this last solar cycle at 1/2 strength in 2000 and was laughed at. Her reply, we just have to wait and see. Shes been bang on so far, but under fierve attack as she is predicting temp drop.

    Silverharp, yes in her latest editorial she says:

    This, in turn, can lead to a drop of the terrestrial temperature by up to 1.0°C from the current temperature during the next three cycles (25–27) of grand minimum 1. The largest temperature drops will be approaching during the local minima between cycles 25 − 26 and cycles 26–27 when the lowest solar activity level is achieved using the estimations in Figure 2 (bottom plot) and Figure 3. Therefore, the average temperature in the Northern hemisphere can be reduced by up to 1.0°C from the current temperature, which was increased by 1.4°C since Maunder minimum. This will result in the average temperature to become lower than the current one to be only 0.4°C higher than the temperature measured in 1710. Then, after the modern grand solar minimum 1 is over, the solar activity in cycle 28 will be restored to normal in the rather short but powerful grand solar cycle lasting between 2053 and 2370

    ....so who knows? But my moneys on her. Shes been ahead of the game all along, and only one of 2 world wide who correctly predicted the last 1/2 strength solar cycle.


  • Registered Users Posts: 820 ✭✭✭lapua20grain


    SeaBreezes wrote: »
    They got the last cycle prediction completely wrong.

    Im sticking with zharakova. She hasnt been wrong with solar cycle prediction yet.

    But NASA agree with her (now) that this cycle will be similar to the last. Its the solar cycle after that, where Zharkova says the cycle will bottom out.

    Time will tell I guess.

    Edit: her latest editorial..
    https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23328940.2020.1796243


    That was a really good read cheers for sharing


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    The sun is very quiet at the moment - 31 days blank in a row today, Solar Flux is 70

    Spotless Days
    Current Stretch: 31 days
    2020 total: 187 days (71%)
    2019 total: 281 days (77%)
    2018 total: 221 days (61%)
    2017 total: 104 days (28%)
    2016 total: 32 days (9%)
    2015 total: 0 days (0%)
    2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
    2013 total: 0 days (0%)
    2012 total: 0 days (0%)
    2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
    2010 total: 51 days (14%)
    2009 total: 260 days (71%)
    2008 total: 268 days (73%)
    2007 total: 152 days (42%)
    2006 total: 70 days (19%)




  • Two contradictory headlines on spaceweather.com
    A MONTH WITHOUT SUNSPOTS: The sun has been without sunspots for 31 straight days--a full month. This interval has pushed the current Solar Minimum into historic territory. Since 2016, there have been 825 spotless days. To find a lull in the solar cycle with more spotless days, you have to go back to the years around 1913 when the sun racked up 1023 spotless days. We are now experiencing a century-class Solar Minimum.Aurora alerts: SMS text.

    SOLAR CYCLE 25 STRIKES BACK: The face of the sun is blank now, but it won't be blank for long. A new sunspot group is about to rotate over the eastern edge of the sun. Its magnetic canopy is visible in this image from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:

    So maybe tomorrow there will be a new sunspot coming around.


  • Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭ Gloria Great Goose-step


    Lets just hope we don't get a super flare, have those anti static bags ready for your phone and shortwave radio. Though if one that big comes the phone network will most likely be useless. Always good to have a shortwave radio protected.

    We missed a big one was it last year ? luckily the sun spat out the super big flare away from Earth.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,011 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    I get that some of these sites and stuff want clicks but I've found some of the dramatics over cycle 25 thus far a bit funny.

    So much 'WOW SOLAR CYCLE 25 ROARING IN TO ACTION' every time a single spot pops up, even if it's the most pathetic little thing that dissipates in a day.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    On the 19th September last year there was 185 spotless days. This year its 187 days.

    The new cycle is not first out the gate anyway.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 820 ✭✭✭lapua20grain






  • Looks like cycle 25 is now wide open.


    hmi1898.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes




  • Registered Users Posts: 15,290 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Interesting new research suggests the next solar sunspot cycle may be a maximum not a minimum - https://phys.org/news/2020-12-sunspot-strongest.html
    In direct contradiction to the official forecast, a team of scientists led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is predicting that the Sunspot Cycle that started this fall could be one of the strongest since record-keeping began.

    Quite an good read, time will tell how accurate their prediction is.

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭ Gloria Great Goose-step


    As an Amateur radio Operator I can see the effects of the recent Sun Spots, propagation is definitely up on the higher bands above 14 Mhz.

    More Sun activity is definitely good news.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,393 ✭✭✭Dubh Geannain


    CME and dense solar wind incoming and due to hit around the same time tomorrow.





  • The method that spaceweather use to measure spotless days is laughable right now, we're already exceeding last year's levels.
    Sunspot number: 0
    What is the sunspot number?
    Updated 07 Jan 2021

    Spotless Days
    Current Stretch: 4 days
    2021 total: 4 days (57%)
    2020 total: 208 days (57%)
    2019 total: 281 days (77%)
    2018 total: 221 days (61%)
    2017 total: 104 days (28%)
    2016 total: 32 days (9%)
    2015 total: 0 days (0%)


  • Registered Users Posts: 688 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Looking into next years winter ( bit stupid with this winter not past yet) but i wonder could there be a delay in the effects of low solar activity. Sun spots still actually quiet low.
    If this was combined with a VEI 6 volcanic explosion in Iceland namely Katla, timed at the right time to effect winter. What major effects to Winter could we expect anyone? Fantasy stuff here but strange times as they are anything goes.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,551 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    bazlers wrote: »
    Looking into next years winter ( bit stupid with this winter not past yet) but i wonder could there be a delay in the effects of low solar activity. Sun spots still actually quiet low.
    If this was combined with a VEI 6 volcanic explosion in Iceland namely Katla, timed at the right time to effect winter. What major effects to Winter could we expect anyone? Fantasy stuff here but strange times as they are anything goes.

    Hoefully a repeat of the winter of 1947! But seriously, i always thought the eruption of the Volcano in Iceland during 2010 had an impact on our winter that year.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    What a load of horse manure no correction this thread is just pure unrecyable plastic waste, Spoof strung out into fourteen paragraphs is still spoof.

    The Earth will be consumed by the Sun long before it dies which will be around the same time the Andromeda galaxy merges with the Milkyway.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    What a load of horse manure no correction this thread is just pure unrecyable plastic waste, Spoof strung out into fourteen paragraphs is still spoof.

    The Earth will be consumed by the Sun long before it dies which will be around the same time the Andromeda galaxy merges with the Milkyway.

    Is there context to this or deleted post before it?


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    Nabber wrote: »
    Is there context to this or deleted post before it?

    Classic attempt at misdirection there Nabber whatever deleted post your on about has nothing todo with me.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Classic attempt at misdirection there Nabber whatever deleted post your on about has nothing todo with me.

    I think he was referring to the below incoherent rambling that seems to be unlinked to any post on this page. I also can't make head nor tail of it.
    What a load of horse manure no correction this thread is just pure unrecyable plastic waste, Spoof strung out into fourteen paragraphs is still spoof.

    The Earth will be consumed by the Sun long before it dies which will be around the same time the Andromeda galaxy merges with the Milkyway.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    I think he was referring to the below incoherent rambling that seems to be unlinked to any post on this page. I also can't make head nor tail of it.

    It’s relevant to the thread.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    What a load of horse manure no correction this thread is just pure unrecyable plastic waste, Spoof strung out into fourteen paragraphs is still spoof.

    The Earth will be consumed by the Sun long before it dies which will be around the same time the Andromeda galaxy merges with the Milkyway.

    MOD NOTE :

    DONT POST IN THIS THREAD AGAIN PLEASE


  • Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭ Gloria Great Goose-step


    So anyway, what's the latest with the sunspots is the sun waking up or is it still asleep with this new cycle ?




  • So anyway, what's the latest with the sunspots is the sun waking up or is it still asleep with this new cycle ?
    There was a splurge of sunspots in the last quarter of last year, which brought down the yearly count from 70% to about 60% spotless, but since the start of the year it has gone quiet again (Earth side facing).


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    So anyway, what's the latest with the sunspots is the sun waking up or is it still asleep with this new cycle ?


    As Elijah Cold Stack said there was a spike in 2020, I think it was from late November through early December. To lazy to verify.

    31 spotless days so far.

    544146.png


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