Gambling really is a mugs game.

Rumpy Pumpy · 05-02-2017 9:59pm

I'm a moderately profitable punter. I enjoy it as a hobby. Keep my bets to €20 a go in the bookies, regardless of odds. Will have an odd higher bet if I go to the races - a day out I love anyway. Keep a simple profit and loss spreadsheet. Only gamble on national hunt racing - no bumpers or staying chases. Only do singles. Never gamble just for the sake of it. I usually make a few hundred profit by the end of the year - if I don't then no great loss.

It's a wretched thing to get addicted to though.

FlawedGenius · 05-02-2017 10:12pm

Did the OP give his mate back his €47(should really give more)?? Havent read the full thread. If he didnt hes no mate( and a tight ****).
Gambling is like sports, majority people - 90 odd percent dont have the ability to become professional(in the particular sport), or in gambling make a profit longterm.
Betting on animals to win you money is for mugs, the horse/dog cant tell you if he doesnt feel up to it today.
Scratchcards are for grannys.

Motivator · 05-02-2017 10:19pm

I'd probably be classed as a gambling addict which is worrying but I must say I love having a bet. I'm monitored in all shops in my local area, something I get quite a kick out of. I've been refused bets, often more than once in every shop in town which can be frustrating but when I catch them out it's extremely satisfying.

Got refused an €800 bet at Christmas - the chap begind the counter had to ring the bet in and I got knocked, €200 at the price and €200 at SP. No problem. Went home and went back about 10 mins before the off, split the bet up and gave money to two other lads in the shop. Strolled up to the counter and had €800 on it, whilst the chap behind the counter re-dialled the traders, my two accomplices had €400 each on the horse with the other staff behind the counter. I once again got rejected and actually got laughed at by the chap who hung up the phone. I smiled and said it wasn't a problem and then took both €400 dockets off my two pals either side of me at the counter. The look on the chap's face behind the counter was a picture. The other staff were falling around laughing as they knew exactly what was happening as they were taking the bets.

The horse won and they refused to pay out the bets saying I was trying to con the staff. Nothing illegal at all and after checking the cameras they couldn't see any money changing hands so after nearly 1 hour waiting for calls to be made and received by staff both dockets were paid out, a roar went up from the punters in the shop when the money was paid out.

Am I a mug? Definitely. Am I a mug punter? No. Is gambling for mugs? Yes, but only if you punt in €10 and €20. These are the fellas who think they have control just because they don't bet big. My turnover per year is close to six figures but at the end of the day I'm in profit while the fellas betting in scores are down a few grand at the end of the year because they haven't a clue what they're doing. Losing €20 a week for a whole year all adds up. If you think you're safe because you only bet in scores then give up the ghost, you're still losing money every year.

FlawedGenius · 05-02-2017 10:20pm

artanevilla wrote: »

Gambling is fine. Like everything you have to do it correctly and in moderation.

My rules are:

Never gamble if you can't afford it.

As soon as the bet is on, your money is gone regardless of potential outcome, if you lose grand, you've already accepted the money is gone, if you win happy days.

Gamble for fun and not for money, as I say above your money should be considered gone and not coming back, but now you have a stake in an event and it should add excitement so enjoy it.

There's no such thing as luck or a sure thing.

Course theres such thing as bad/good luck, in every aspect of life, and there are sure things, its called match fixing. Happens in most sports around the world every week. Happened in the olympics, the boxing. Very hard to prove you lose on purpose though.

MilesMorales1 · 05-02-2017 10:22pm

FlawedGenius wrote: »

Did the OP give his mate back his €47(should really give more)?? Havent read the full thread. If he didnt hes no mate( and a tight ****).
Gambling is like sports, majority people - 90 odd percent dont have the ability to become professional(in the particular sport), or in gambling make a profit longterm.
Betting on animals to win you money is for mugs, the horse/dog cant tell you if he doesnt feel up to it today.
Scratchcards are for grannys.

If he doesn't be such a ****, I'll drop him a few quid. When he's referring to me as a thief for buying a scratch card he didn't on social media, then I won't no.

Betting big sounds like a way to losing big anyway.

artanevilla · 05-02-2017 10:24pm

FlawedGenius wrote: »

Course theres such thing as bad/good luck, in every aspect of life, and there are sure things, its called match fixing. Happens in most sports around the world every week. Happened in the olympics, the boxing. Very hard to prove you lose on purpose though.

That's not luck, that's cheating.

osarusan · 05-02-2017 10:31pm

Was in the bookies the other day and a lad was going mad with a jockey that cost him a bet. Really cursing and angry. Then she showed his friend the betting slip and it was a €3 bet on a 2/1 favourite.

What I always notice in the bookies is when a race is over, people who backed losing horses will go back up to the race lists/race info on the walls and re-examine the winner's form, and then make some comment like 'Sure that's a Nigel Twiston-Davies horse' or 'Sure he won at Sedgefield last time out,' as if this nugget of info was clear evidence of the horse's superiority.

Why didn't you spot it before the race then?

FlawedGenius · 05-02-2017 10:32pm

MilesMorales1 wrote: »

If he doesn't be such a ****, I'll drop him a few quid. When he's referring to me as a thief for buying a scratch card he didn't on social media, then I won't no.

Betting big sounds like a way to losing big anyway.

Or winning big, brainless thing to say. Chelsea to beat Arsenal yesterday was a great bet, €200 on u would get back €400. A calculated risk, no different than investing, ofcourse most people are clueless and bet with there hearts or to hit the jackpot and thats why the bookies make millions.

MilesMorales1 · 05-02-2017 10:34pm

FlawedGenius wrote: »

Or winning big, Chelsea to beat Arsenal yesterday was a great bet, €200 on u would get back €400. A calculated risk, no different than investing, ofcourse most people are clueless and bet with there hearts or to hit the jackpot and thats why the bookies make millions.

I'd be absolutely gutted if I lost 200 quid though. I wouldn't invest in that sense either, not till I had more money anyway.

FlawedGenius · 05-02-2017 10:37pm

artanevilla wrote: »

That's not luck, that's cheating.

Not on the punters side.Cheating for the sportsmen/athletes involved. It shouldnt happen, but for a punter getting information that a team or sportsman intends to lose hes doing nothing wrong, and it cant be proved. Its up to the bookies to spot it and suspend the betting.

Hector Bellend · 05-02-2017 11:41pm

You could look at this another way. It adds up to the same thing just an altered perspective.

If you are running a lottery, scratch card, bingo or any other gambling operation and have not built a healthy edge into your operation then you're an idiot.

On the other hand, if you re an experienced punter and have not figured out that the numbers are stacked against you then youre an even bigger idiot.

To say that gambling is a way of life isnt strictly true but theres an element of risk in almost everything we do. Its how you evaluate and manage this risk that will determine your outcome

MilesMorales1 · 05-02-2017 11:52pm

Hector Bellend wrote: »

You could look at this another way. It adds up to the same thing just an altered perspective.

If you are running a lottery, scratch card, bingo or any other gambling operation and have not built a healthy edge into your operation then you're an idiot.

On the other hand, if you re an experienced punter and have not figured out that the numbers are stacked against you then youre an even bigger idiot.

To say that gambling is a way of life isnt strictly true but theres an element of risk in almost everything we do. Its how you evaluate and manage this risk that will determine your outcome

Well I'm not a risk taker, on a personal level :pac: Knowing my personality, I would gamble intensively for a period, lose the money I have, and then get off it and realise what a terrible mistake it was. I was nearly tempted to buy some scratch cards today in case I got lucky again, then stopped myself when I thought of the odds.

pumpkin4life · 05-02-2017 11:59pm

If you're going to gamble in the bookies tae make money, your're onto a loser already. Bookies tend to win in the long term due to the asymmetric information between the bet setter and the bet taker. And a solid understanding of poisson models can help too.

With that in mind, the best bests to make are the ones where you're on a more even level in terms of information. Think horseracing or betting on referendums/political events, over say football matches. Or, if you have some great inside information /truly understand football, not the fat lad who played soccer for his club once and got the last minute header in the under 17 school team cause the goalie was too hungover to do anything about it.

For the more statistically inclined, maybe take a look at Bayesian statistics or count models.

Then they'll close your account if you win too much.

Yourself isit · 06-02-2017 12:08am

pumpkin4life wrote: »

If you're going to gamble in the bookies tae make money, your're onto a loser already. Bookies tend to win in the long term due to the asymmetric information between the bet setter and the bet taker. And a solid understanding of poisson models can help too.

With that in mind, the best bests to make are the ones where you're on a more even level in terms of information. Think horseracing or betting on referendums/political events, over say football matches. Or, if you have some great inside information /truly understand football, not the fat lad who played soccer for his club once and got the last minute header in the under 17 school team cause the goalie was too hungover to do anything about it.

For the more statistically inclined, maybe take a look at Bayesian statistics or count models.

I don't get horseracing as not gambling ( not without insider info). Far too many variables particularly in national hunt - horses, course, weather, ground and jockey. And a horse could fall. All multipliers.

I think you could bet against sentiment for one on one type games (tennis, badminton etc). If there is a popular tennis player who isn't that good then a bet against him on betfair might pay off more often than not.

FlawedGenius · 06-02-2017 12:35am

pumpkin4life wrote: »

If you're going to gamble in the bookies tae make money, your're onto a loser already. Bookies tend to win in the long term due to the asymmetric information between the bet setter and the bet taker. And a solid understanding of poisson models can help too.

With that in mind, the best bests to make are the ones where you're on a more even level in terms of information. Think horseracing or betting on referendums/political events, over say football matches. Or, if you have some great inside information /truly understand football, not the fat lad who played soccer for his club once and got the last minute header in the under 17 school team cause the goalie was too hungover to do anything about it.

For the more statistically inclined, maybe take a look at Bayesian statistics or count models.

Then they'll close your account if you win too much.

All nonsense apart from the last line about closing accounts, but theres many ways around that which are obvious like opening in friends names.
Also betfair exchange cannot close your account because your only taking other mugs money.
Politics is only good if youv inside info into the polls and Im sure everyone lumped on Hillary when Trump became candidate for president.
Exactly what poster above said about horse racing. Apart from not knowing what humour the horse is in, how do u know if the horse hasnt got the flu.

FlawedGenius · 06-02-2017 12:41am

Yourself isit wrote: »

I don't get horseracing as not gambling ( not without insider info). Far too many variables particularly in national hunt - horses, course, weather, ground and jockey. And a horse could fall. All multipliers.

I think you could bet against sentiment for one on one type games (tennis, badminton etc). If there is a popular tennis player who isn't that good then a bet against him on betfair might pay off more often than not.

Spot on, if you bet/layed against Liverpool for the last 20 years you would be a millionaire. All the wannabe scousers in Ireland lumping on them down the boooookies drives the odds down which makes the odds for opposing team percentage wise too high for there chances of getting a draw/win, long term this is profitable. To people in after hours this is gabadygoo but trying to simplify it

DanielODonnell · 06-02-2017 12:46am

I'm in around £3500 worth of debt because of it, it sucks you in, you would be surprised how quick it can take over your mind. I haven't gambled in a month and you realise how boring your life is without sports gambling.

I sometimes think I would have more money if I kept gambling but even if I won £3000 tonight I would still just be breaking even.

Hilly Bill · 06-02-2017 12:50am

MilesMorales1 wrote: »

I would have given him a few quid, honestly I would. But he started going on about how he deserved the winning card and I didn't since he spent more than I did and he was the gambler. So I did the mature thing and waved it in his face.

You played him like a mug. You waited until he'd bought all the loosing ones and when the time was right you jumped in ahead of him and bought the winner. Some mate you are.

Guy:Incognito · 09-11-2019 10:46pm

MilesMorales1 wrote: »

2 quid is 2 quid. I'd have only spent it on food or put it in the piggy bank.

Yes but if you remember back to your first tale, sorry post, he only wanted to spend one euro and you told him not to "cos gambling is stupid". Yet you dive straight in with twice as much , even after having your point proven?

EDIT. Damn you ****ers and dragging up old threads. Worst part is it sounded vaguely familiar when I was reading it.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock · 10-11-2019 2:11am

Gambling is a game, like anything else. If you do it to win money, then you either have to be very good at something (e.g. poker) or very lucky.

I gamble on football matches all the time, but never more than one or two euro. It passes the time and gives you a reason to watch Ajax v Utrecht and makes it more enjoyable. Even though I only stand to win 50c,

Edgware · 10-11-2019 2:30am

Grand for a few euro. I remember doing 3 euro Scholes to score and Utd to win 1 nil. 33 to 1.

85 min. Scholes scored. LOVELY JUBBLY
Van Nest then slipped in and scored two.

ILoveYourVibes · 10-11-2019 3:19am

Collie D wrote: »

Sports betting, political betting, even betting on Big Brother or Eurovision if that's your thing aren't chance

Yeah ...they are

But a lot of things are chance ...a lot of life is just luck. Successful people don't want to admit a lot of their success is blind luck.

ILoveYourVibes · 10-11-2019 3:25am

I don't know how people got addicted to gambling before online gambling. I mean its such an effort

Addictions to online gambling i can understand.

LuasSimon · 10-11-2019 10:05am

Roulette , cartoon( virtual ) racing , machines are cash cows for the bookies but there is a small chance of showing a profit if one is knowledgeable and most importantly disciplined in specialised areas let that be racing , soccer , politics or in my case GAA .
The problem is particularly with online accounts the bookies restrict your account so you can’t bet or else less than a euro but if your a mug punter they will let you lose your life’s savings or indeed your employers life savings if you can get your hands on it . Even in betting shops head office are examining cctv of successful punters who go into their shops or even indeed examine their hand writing . If your losing your bolloxx they will give you Vip treatment though .
Bottom line bookies only want mugs .

Gambling really is a mugs game.

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