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Potential for extreme wind event Friday/Saturday

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,542 ✭✭✭Tactical


    @Cyclops999
    Tactical wrote: »
    Southerly winds will reach storm force along western and northern coasts during tomorrow evening.

    The above gives the current sea area forecast and our resident forecasters on boards.ie give a pretty good forecast too.

    If you give a read back through the posts you'll see how the models have developed and the forecasts that have followed.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,542 ✭✭✭Tactical


    There may have been some changes on the latest run of their model. Latest NAE still shows violent storm force sustained at sea anyway.

    Will see if anything changes after the 18Z.

    Agreed. Will await with interest the outcome of the models.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Gerry on latest forecast didn't mention 140kmph like the met.ie did, but he did mention 120kmph gusts


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,542 ✭✭✭Tactical


    Gerry who?

    Gusts of 120kph are still pretty respectable :)

    Oh, you mean the Met Eireann forecast on the TV v's the Met Eireann website forecast. The Countrywide weather warning gives 120kph winds whereas the Region specific one is the one that mentions 140kph.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,766 ✭✭✭Bsal


    Friday evening is looking a bit fierce alright

    wi18_zps2e52550c.gif


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Pangea wrote: »
    Gerry on latest forecast didn't mention 140kmph like the met.ie did, but he did mention 120kmph gusts

    Maybe there has been a change on their latest model or maybe he is being a bit cautious. The warning on the website/meteoalarm hasn't been changed though.

    During the last wind event a few days ago they changed the warning from 120 km/h gusts down to 100 km/h - and we ended up with a 131 km/h gust. It can be risky when the models change a bit! ;)

    Either way, I don't think it's going to be severe away from the exposed western coasts. Nothing different to the types of things we've seen here over recent autumns/winters. It will be nothing close to Dec 1998, for example.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,542 ✭✭✭Tactical


    A re-run of December 1998 would be great :D

    I agree, very hard to call it exactly as things turn out and I certainly won't be complaining if the actual weather is different from that forecast as I get great enjoyment out of following the unfolding story :)

    If the models change rapidly it must be very hard to arrive at a forecast that gives accurate information without having to constantly change it in a dramatic fashion.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Shannon, issued on Thursday 27 December 2012 at 1531 UTC
    Southerly severe gale force 9 expected soon, veering southwesterly and increasing violent storm 11 later

    Rockall, issued on Thursday 27 December 2012 at 1531 UTC
    Southerly severe gale force 9 expected soon, veering southwesterly and increasing violent storm 11 later

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/gales_printable.html


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,541 ✭✭✭Smidge


    Will this be worse than the high winds last week?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    moon looks rather strange tonight
    ominous


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    should we have a separate thread for Sundays system?


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Smidge wrote: »
    Will this be worse than the high winds last week?

    It could be a bit worse in some places along coasts. I don't think it will be as bad for inland areas though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Well there's still no change to the warning on the website, but the latest forecast mentions gusts up to 130 km/h now. So halfway between what Gerry said on the TV forecast and what the warning says. :P
    Mild and very windy tomorrow. Cloudy with outbreaks of rain drizzle and fog in places, but some drier brighter periods also in parts of the east. More persistent and heavier rain in the west and northwest in the afternoon. Gale force south to southwest winds and some severe gusts of 90 to 130km/hr in places, highest in exposed parts of the northwest

    As for Sunday, not sure about that yet. Doesn't look stormy at all on the 12Z GFS.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    Update from met eireann
    Issued at 27 December 2012 - 21:37
    Wind Warning
    Gale force south to southwest winds developing during Friday with gusts of 90 or 100km/hr in exposed areas, but more severe gusts of 100 to 140km/hr are expected, for a time, in the late afternoon and evening, highest in exposed parts of Connacht and Donegal.

    Valid 0900hrs Friday to 0300hrs Saturday


  • Registered Users Posts: 280 ✭✭Rodar08


    Folklore has it that a ring around the moon signifies bad weather is coming, and in many cases this may be true. So how can rings around the moon be a predictor of weather to come? The ice crystals that cover the halo signify high altitude, thin cirrus clouds that normally precede a warm front by one or two days. Typically, a warm front will be associated with a low pressure system which is commonly referred to as a storm.
    It is believed that the number of stars within a moon halo indicate the number days before bad weather will arrive. Give it a try the next time you observe a moon halo.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Chief Forecaster's Assessment
    A particularly deep area of low pressure developing over the North Atlantic Ocean is expected to lie near Iceland this weekend. The associated frontal system will move across the UK during Friday and Saturday, bringing with it another spell of wet weather, accompanied by generally very windy conditions. The heaviest and most persistent rain is expected over higher ground on the western side of England and Wales. Here as much as 60 to 80 mm rain may fall over parts of northwest England and Wales. Over southwest England accumulations of 20 to 30 mm are possible.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    18Z NAE downgrades the windspeeds.

    12122818_2718.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    seen the bbc fc. they had very little to say about it


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    Not sure how accurate this
    Belmullet http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/Ireland/Belmullet/Wind.htm


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12122718_2700.gif


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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,054 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Its coming up to five to midnight so lets head over to Met Eireann on RTE Radio1 or Sky 0160 if its handy!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Looking forward to this, I live in a very windy location so bring it on.
    Although last night I had to go around the house tying things up in the midst of the mini storm, it was quite dangerous to be out in it.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    It'll be more dangerous tomorrow.

    I'm really glad this sparkling thread came along to replace the tedium of the where's my snow whingefest in these parts. Those people have no sense. :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    Any updates guys? or is it looking pretty much the same as earlier in the day


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Weathering wrote: »
    Any updates guys? or is it looking pretty much the same as earlier in the day

    Still looking about the same as earlier. There was a bit of a downgrade on the NAE model but overall its the same picture : winds up to force 11 at sea, on west/northwest coasts force 9 sometimes 10, inland from those coasts windy but nothing too severe.


  • Registered Users Posts: 54 ✭✭mickyfitzy2


    Hope its nothing like the 1998 storm of 26th Dec, that was scary, gust of 98k (180kph) recorded at malin head that night. We lost a fair few roof tiles and lots of damage done here in donegal.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    This particular system is largely forecast to be confined to Donegal where it will possibly be nasty, however I personally see two more systems incoming in short order and with the NAO going sharply positive and out of model forecast range the Atlantic is to my mind going to drive the weather for the next fortnight and with a strong emphasis on drive.

    This thread will be the more interesting one around here for the next while (while we wait for that potential SSW) .

    Infract that Pistolpetes. :D


    BANNED FOR 2 DAYS AND SB KNOWS WHY


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Hope its nothing like the 1998 storm of 26th Dec, that was scary, gust of 98k (180kph) recorded at malin head that night. We lost a fair few roof tiles and lots of damage done here in donegal.

    It won't be close to being severe as that, don't worry. It will be the atlantic facing Mayo coast that will be getting the stongest winds from this anyway.

    It was a 96kt gust in 1998 at Malin. 98kt was in 1961. It wasn't far off the record though.

    Belullet will probably have the highest gust tomorrow evening.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Problem with this system is that it could hang around till Sunday with a battering effect. Lots of powerful systems are rather fast moving and while they generate high headline speeds and are positively scary for an hour or two they then decay rather quickly.

    Not this one though.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 54 ✭✭mickyfitzy2


    Sorry misquoted speed in '98 storm it was actually 96kts as maquiladora pointed out. Wasn't even born in '61


This discussion has been closed.
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