Cold Spell Media Forecasts and Model Output (General Chat)

I hope I'm in the right place. I noticed that big bank of cloud heading our direction form the nnw. Am I right in saying the wind is blowing ssw for it to reach Ireland? And if so is there a potential for the wind to change and for this to miss us altogether?

Obviously I realise that nothing is 100% at this stage but going on previous experience is there a chance this might happen?

I'm new to all this so forgive my ignorance.

sdonn wrote: »

Anyone just see the late forecast?

I think I'm in love with Evelyn.

Did she say anything different to the one at 9.30?

leahyl wrote: »

Did she say anything different to the one at 9.30?

Nope

She was quite clear that it looked "likely to remain cold right up until Christmas".

@force eleven - is that real? Any for Friday night?

I think the wrap around force will be Southern Ireland - (Dublin included) - The Midlands up to NE England and South Scotland.
Heaviest precip in these parts on Sat.

The models are really showing some excellent potential for Friday night almost nationwide. On an imby note I feel that Louth could miss out by a squeak. Just as well I'm living in Dublin these days! Now I think GFS has gone a little crazy with the LP development. I am struggling to see how explosive cyclogenesis is going to take place, especially with a track that crosses through much of Ireland, then Wales and England. But certainly, a heavy fall (perhaps 6-8 inches in parts of Leinster) is being suggested by the models, with the added problem of stronger winds in more southern counties. Inland parts of Co. Cork could see classic blizzard conditions for a while, though snowfall may be short and sweet further south.


Now here's the part where I pee on the parade: I don't see much model support for continued heavy precipitation over Sunday and Monday over almost any part of Ireland! The positioning of this LP clearly isn't nailed as it only cropped up over this afternoon but it suggests only slack northerly winds over Ireland once the system passes over Ireland on Saturday morning.

The UKMO forecast has a more plausible progression, with more sensible precipitation and pressure charts. It also keeps the threat of snow showers for at least Leinster and northern Donegal over more of Saturday. Even with that, I fear MT Cranium's snow predictions will be somewhat overdone except in Ulster and parts of the western seaboard.


EDIT: The ECMWF and GME are also frankly crazy for Friday night and is much more supportive for snowy conditions over Sunday and Monday. All hope is not lost yet. For basic pressure charts, the ECM and UKMO have a bit of an edge in my opinion, so perhaps I should have more faith:D

And I find it interesting that the ECM's progression after Sunday differs quite differently from the GFS and UKMO models. What to make of it all...

Showing perfectly on radar as the cold front pushes South.
Backedge snow already in Scotland.

http://yfrog.com/2gcoldfront1p

This is our cold front on doorstep!

http://yfrog.com/g0polar1p

See those showers packing in behind it - All snow!

The cold front is touchin on N Ire door.

http://yfrog.com/giv1111111111p

RTE Radio one froecast 8am.....snow may accumulate on the ground......have no idea where else it could accumulate !

wildefalcon wrote: »

Forgive the ignorance, but does "meso-scale" mean a serious winter event?

Thank you.

Wikipedia!


Mesoscale meteorology is the study of weather systems smaller than synoptic scale systems but larger than microscale and storm-scale cumulus systems. Horizontal dimensions generally range from around 5 kilometers to several hundred kilometers. Examples of mesoscale weather systems are sea breezes, squall lines, and mesoscale convective complexes.
Vertical velocity often equals or exceeds horizontal velocities in mesoscale meteorological systems due to nonhydrostatic processes such as buoyant acceleration of a rising thermal or acceleration through a narrow mountain pass.