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Model Discussion Thread - short term
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Brief period of colder weather, with small risk of low level sleet in the northwest and north. Moderate risk of sleet 250m asl in the same regions.
I would like to report we had sleet today, and it was as near as damit at sea lvl.
No dont get excited, It was about 4 bits on the windscreen in a hell of shower that lasted 20 mins.
You knoiw the type the wind just blows and the sky turns black.
But still first sleet for the year
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isle of man wrote: »I would like to report we had sleet today, and it was as near as damit at sea lvl.
No dont get excited, It was about 4 bits on the windscreen in a hell of shower that lasted 20 mins.
You knoiw the type the wind just blows and the sky turns black.
But still first sleet for the year
I thought I warned all you IOM shadow feckers never to darken the door of this forum again after what ye did to me last year!!!
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2nd of December seems more likely to show something.
Dew point is just about there for parts of the country.
As is air temp...JUST
As is the precipitation, just about :P
Clutching at straws there but it seems plausible :P
Almost the same lineup for Sunday afternoon/evening too. Other than that, nothing else cropping up for snow potential in the short run.0 -
Should keep an eye on that little shortwave coming in off the Atlantic next week end (represented by that small bulge in the isobars just to the Southwest on the charts below) against a very cold Northwesterly flow. It's actually the polar front which means it's a potential temperature battleground - cold from the north, mild from the south. It will not turn rain into wine but it could turn rain into snow. A potential snow event. The GFS has this possibility aswell. The UKMO shy's away from it ballooning the depth of the depression and consequently the warm sector. The ECM run this evening looks quite good.
That's the sober model. The less sober JMA model prompting quite a wind and rain/sleet/snow event next weekend.
That may not happen of course but it is 144hrs out now and worth keeping an eye on over the next few days. Other then that a short window of wintry showers and frosty nights almost certainly by the end of next weekend into the early days of next week with scope for further upgrades or downgrades.0 -
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On the 18z again we see this nasty looking battleground shortwave next Sunday and I would not be at all suprised if it came off like this to see frontal snow from this setup either ahead or on the back edge of the warm and cold fronts respectively.
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Yeah another really interesting run throughout, strong wind events, a few potential snow events and in general it should throw up some interesting weather much like the past week has
FI is only a few days out though with new lows showing up all over the place. The ensembles are already splitting just three days out so interesting times ahead
Mean 850hPa temps below 0C for the duration of the run as well!
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