FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2021 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Oscar Bravo · 30-03-2021 3:35pm

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1376905159972945922?s=19

Nqp15hhu · 30-03-2021 3:46pm

pauldry wrote: »

I mean the air temperatures so this is just freezing boredom then. Heating Bills etc. Hope the cold stays off for most of Easter Sunday. Wev an Easter egg hunt planned with kids

-11c is the record low max. You’re not going to get that in April.

compsys · 30-03-2021 4:32pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

The air isn't as hot though as the land and seas are still relatively cool. If this were September it would be baking.

The Irish sea is about 8º now. In early September it can be as "high' as 16º. Makes a huge difference to those by the coast.

[Deleted User] · 30-03-2021 4:34pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

The air isn't as hot though as the land and seas are still relatively cool. If this were September it would be baking.

I know. But 12° sounds colder than it feels when the sun is out. Is my point.

Nqp15hhu · 30-03-2021 8:12pm

Think some of us could have snow cover on Monday morning and Tuesday morning. Gfs showing a lot of instability and snow showers from a straight northerly.

Exceeding no more than 2c here.

Nqp15hhu · 30-03-2021 8:17pm

And ECM showing another arctic incursion on the 9th!

Plenty of opportunities for us to get some snow and possible lying snow! Great!

Meteorite58 · 30-03-2021 11:59pm

One of the features showing up in the ECM for the upcoming cold spell from Sunday is potentially strong winds at times, nothing stormy but good strong cold winds with a Northerly aspect. A concern for Horticulturists and farmers I would think, severe shock to animals especially young lambs and calves I would have thought given the wind chill. Looking wintry and possibly hill snow in the W, NW and N and possibly mountains elsewhere, too early for exact details though. Looks like every sort of wintry showers with hail and will see nearer to the time for the risk of thunderstorms.

UKMO coming into the frame now and looking very cold indeed.

Could be fairly strong winds on N coasts at times. Some sharp frosts next week on the charts away from the windiest areas. There is no doubt the heating and fires will be needed for a while more.

Nqp15hhu · 31-03-2021 12:39am

Latest 18z GFS:

850's are about 1c warmer, however, the cold air lasts into Tuesday evening now.

Quite a cold day on Monday, with higher elevation areas potentially staying below freezing.

Exceptionally low thickness values:

So a window for snow of almost 3 days - I don't see any marginality. I do see the potential for low level areas to get a covering of snow, maybe even of a few centimetres if this plays out as shown.

It's hard to know though. I don't think we've had an airmass as cold as this in April in recent times.

Nqp15hhu · 31-03-2021 12:41am

Meteorite58 wrote: »

One of the features showing up in the ECM for the upcoming cold spell from Sunday is potentially strong winds at times, nothing stormy but good strong cold winds with a Northerly aspect. A concern for Horticulturists and farmers I would think, severe shock to animals especially young lambs and calves I would have thought given the wind chill. Looking wintry and possibly hill snow in the W, NW and N and possibly mountains elsewhere, too early for exact details though. Looks like every sort of wintry showers with hail and will see nearer to the time for the risk of thunderstorms.

UKMO coming into the frame now and looking very cold indeed.

Could be fairly strong winds on N coasts at times. Some sharp frosts next week on the charts away from the windiest areas. There is no doubt the heating and fires will be needed for a while more.

Do you not think the very low thickness values (under 516 decametre) would put an end to any marginality?

I know on Sunday we had snow here down to low levels with -6c/-7c 850hpa values.

Meteorite58 · 01-04-2021 12:31am

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Do you not think the very low thickness values (under 516 decametre) would put an end to any marginality?

I know on Sunday we had snow here down to low levels with -6c/-7c 850hpa values.

Looking very wintry indeed. Models in general very well aligned. In my very amateur opinion it may well snow to lower levels along Northern counties, maybe a bit inland, would think quite a high chance of snow on hills and mountains which would look spectacular against the bright blue early April sky on Monday. Going to be very windy later Sunday into Monday especially along the coasts. Some showers could be quite convective in nature. Hit and miss, could be some hail belting off the houses. Interested to see what the chance of thunderstorms will be but for now not much shear available, airflow very aligned with the Jet on a N to S route.

Whatever happens , happens. interesting spell of weather and no doubt a great chance for learning for the weather enthusiast. We will find out why it did or didn't snow in various places and how long it lasted or didn't. All shall be revealed and for me anyway quite an interesting set up.

ECM keeping the cold theme going out to +240

Meteorite58 · 01-04-2021 11:20pm

Cool outlook but not a lot of precipitation showing up especially the further S you move down the country and with the sun stronger now and the low humidity from the Northerly sourced winds the land should continue to dry well, maybe too well for farming dare I say ?

Meteorite58 · 05-04-2021 11:11pm

The cooler weather continuing on out to the end of the ECM 12Z run, GFS the same, shows signs of getting more precipitation around and after the weekend and wintry maybe at times more so high ground though.

Oneiric 3 · 09-04-2021 9:58pm

Longer term signals tending towards more spring like conditions with warmer temps and high pressure never really far away:

pauldry · 12-04-2021 10:29am

Another dry Spring appears on the cards. After only small amounts of rain the past few weeks the next couple of weeks look even drier with High Pressure over or near Ireland. Temperatures will be around normal too so some pleasant days ahead.

Meteorite58 · 13-04-2021 11:14pm

Signs of getting milder from around mid week next from the main models and after this weekends rain which may linger a bit into Monday looking fairly dry for most. GFS showing a bit cooler again the following weekend but uncertain .

Meteorite58 · 18-04-2021 8:29pm

Nothing too stand out in the models out into FI. ECM was trending cooler but rowed back on this, both GFS and ECM showing cooler days towards the end of the month and GFS showing it cool into the start of May but it could well moderate by then. Mostly under the influence of HP, never staying stationary for long but there is a leaning maybe for the W and S of the country to fare best with temperatures as the East may have cooler NE. E and SE winds at times, but only a rough guess on my part. Still quite cool at night in places.

ECM and GFS continue to show low rainfall totals especially in the Eastern half of the country.

Meteorite58 · 21-04-2021 8:34pm

Both ECM and GFS show it turning a bit cool around the middle of next week and showing little or no rainfall.

Meteorite58 · 23-04-2021 11:07am

Models certainly looking cooler from around middle of next week. Continues to show little rainfall.

Artane2002 · 25-04-2021 2:37pm

I don't think people here will be too thrilled with this but the GFS 6z seems to be going for some unseasonably cool and windy weather for around May 5th. There would be widespread spells of rain with a chance of this rain turning to sleet and possibly snow on hills and mountains. Max temps struggling around the mid single digits. The ECM 0z parallel looks fairly similar to me but less cool. The ECM has a northerly for the same day but it looks mostly dry. It will be interesting to see if the GFS is correct!

gfs-0-252.png?6

Sammy2012 · 25-04-2021 2:54pm

I know this is the spring fantasy island but I was wondering if there's any summer forecast? I know noone knows what will come but just wondering if anyone has any ideas? Give us staycationers some hope!!

pauldry · 25-04-2021 7:03pm

Well May looks cold but theres usually one warm month.

Personally I think this Summer will have a mix of everything but there will be warm spells too. My head tells me June will probably be hot or late May into early June. Not sure though.

All we know is extremes of weather are getting more frequent so if its wet it could get very wet over a short period and if it gets warm it could also prove very warm

Chris_5339762 · 25-04-2021 8:34pm

Yeah that cold spell can FO with the veg planted.

I think once this high pressure - slight showers - high pressure finally breaks down we're in trouble for a while. I haven't registered < 1000mbar absolute pressure since March. When this breaks, the Atlantic will get back in and it'll be hard to shift.

Generally a good spell in April like this means a somewhat ok May and a poor Summer.

Meteorite58 · 25-04-2021 11:51pm

ECM 12Z showing a fairly full on breakdown of the weather from next Sunday with the Jet powering up and taking aim at us and Lp's nearby sending in bands of rain and getting a bit windy , GEM similar and GFS different timing but showing the Atlantic stirring up too. ECM showing fairly high rainfall accumulations from Sun to Weds on the current run but a long way out yet to know for sure. A big departure from the quiet weather of late. Will see if these charts set a trend.

pauldry · 26-04-2021 10:28am

The old stay outdoors message might be hard to obey in the coming weeks.
Stayed on beach all weekend as last year sunny weekends like that were few and far between so made the most of it.

These next few weeks are certainly trending cool and unsettled and possibly cool and very unsettled as mentioned above.

Gonzo · 26-04-2021 1:18pm

a big pattern change could well be on the way to a considerably more unsettled and chilly outlook.

Plenty of northern blocking over the coming weeks with cold winds from the north/north-east with things becoming more unsettled.

first week of May could see daytime temperatures struggle to even reach 8c in places.

PukkaStukka · 26-04-2021 1:25pm

Where was this blocking in January?

Artane2002 · 26-04-2021 6:17pm

PukkaStukka wrote: »

Where was this blocking in January?

it was there, it just didn't help us.

Today's GFS 12z blew up a LP system for this day next week out of nowhere, resulting in strong winds, heavy rain and max temps widely between 6c and 8c but a few degrees milder in the southwest according to the temperature maps. The following days continue this cool and unsettled theme but not as extreme as yesterday's 6z.

gfs-0-168.png?12

Artane2002 · 27-04-2021 12:15am

Artane2002 wrote: »

it was there, it just didn't help us.

Today's GFS 12z blew up a LP system for this day next week out of nowhere, resulting in strong winds, heavy rain and max temps widely between 6c and 8c but a few degrees milder in the southwest according to the temperature maps. The following days continue this cool and unsettled theme but not as extreme as yesterday's 6z.

That low I mentioned is a lot weaker and misses us to our south on the 18z. However, the cool weather on this run is relentless, with maxima generally between 7c and 12c for the entire run.

pauldry · 27-04-2021 9:05am

Cool Mays are often good for warm July or August

Supercell · 27-04-2021 9:54am

Thought my woodstove was done for the year, looks like i better get some more supplies in, oh well, do like a nice fire

Hard to see the atlantic roaring back with mild sw winds any time soon.

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2021 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2021 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST