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Storm Atiyah Sunday - Monday, 8th - 9th Dec 2019

12467…35

Comments

  • #92
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    HIRLAM 18Z showing some very high mean wind speeds especially around 17.00 - 18.00 with mean wind speeds of 100 105 km/h on the coast of Kerry and probably parts of Clare . Getting into Violent Storm territory off the coast or on the coast there.

    Model just runs to 18.00 atm.

    anim_xgg0.gif


  • #93
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    It's possible that there are different forecasters working on these different outlets, which would result in different outcomes.

    I think that Met Eireann should not issue these very specific 'warnings' so early, because they are always going to change closer the time. Not only would this help in giving a more accurate warning, but it would prevent parasitical journalists from generating hyped-up stories in order to generate ad revenue.

    Disagree

    What use is a warning 24 hours out. Useful to save my soul but not to save or change my business event.

    In the prediction of a mature low like this theres large confidence its gonna be windy for all.

    Let people know that.

    It's a forecast not gospel.

    Theres no value updating the forecast when things are happening

    It might save face but of no benefit to anybody bar the face


  • #94
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,433 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Meteorite58 wrote: »

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  • #95
    aisling86
    Registered Users Posts: 584 ✭✭✭aisling86


    Looking pretty rough on the icon alright! Interesting how the mountains act like a barrier around macroom


  • #96
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Anything the ICON can do the ARPEGE can do better !

    Bit all over the place where the strongest winds are going to be on this run but the most important thing is showing consistent high winds. Some very tight gradients showing up.

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  • #97
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Conditions there for convection producing big squally showers after the front goes through. Possibly cold enough for hail showers also .

    A fair wind chill also.

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  • #98
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    Always look forward to Meteorites excellent analysis on Impending storms.


  • #99
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    squarecircles wrote: »
    Always look forward to Meteorites excellent analysis on Impending storms.

    Oh, and I of yours and everyone else also !

    What do ye think. What is the gut feeling on this.

    Looks like it is going to be one rough day I reckon. High end Orange warnings, possibly more counties coming into the Orange warning category, possibly some counties getting red warnings.

    Would think there are going to be some massive squally showers with huge dangerous and possibly damaging gusts of wind.

    Im thinking strong possibility of multiple power outages including myself.

    What do ye reckon?

    Overdoing it ?

    ECM 18Z Rapid coming out soon , might stay up to see what it has. Get a better perspective of where this is going.


  • #100
    endainoz
    Registered Users Posts: 4,675 ✭✭✭endainoz


    Meteorite58 wrote: »
    Oh, and I of yours and everyone else also !

    What do ye think. What is the gut feeling on this.

    Looks like it is going to be one rough day I reckon. High end Orange warnings, possibly more counties coming into the Orange warning category, possibly some counties getting red warnings.

    Would think there are going to be some massive squally showers with huge dangerous and possibly damaging gusts of wind.

    Im thinking strong possibility of multiple power outages including myself.

    What do ye reckon?

    Overdoing it ?

    ECM 18Z Rapid coming out soon , might stay up to see what it has. Get a better perspective of where this is going.

    Definitely not overdoing it anyway. I'll be spending some of tomorrow securing shed doors and the like. Those models look close to red territory for me in coastal Clare, have to say I'm looking forward to it though, we've been a bit deprived of storms so far this winter! Do we have to wait long for that model to come out?


  • #101
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    endainoz wrote: »
    Definitely not overdoing it anyway. I'll be spending some of tomorrow securing shed doors and the like. Those models look close to red territory for me in coastal Clare, have to say I'm looking forward to it though, we've been a bit deprived of storms so far this winter! Do we have to wait long for that model to come out?

    Dont think it will be out fully for another 40 / 50mins .


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  • #102
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM 18Z

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  • #103
    SeaBreezes
    Registered Users Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    Meteorite58 wrote: »
    Oh, and I of yours and everyone else also !

    What do ye think. What is the gut feeling on this.

    Looks like it is going to be one rough day I reckon. High end Orange warnings, possibly more counties coming into the Orange warning category, possibly some counties getting red warnings.

    Would think there are going to be some massive squally showers with huge dangerous and possibly damaging gusts of wind.

    Im thinking strong possibility of multiple power outages including myself.

    What do ye reckon?

    Overdoing it ?

    ECM 18Z Rapid coming out soon , might stay up to see what it has. Get a better perspective of where this is going.

    Prepare for the worst, hope for the best!!

    A little more sheltered from this angle in Kinsale thankfully. Still prepping for electricity outage. Models all seem to be increasing strength.. It will be wild out west!!


  • #104
    Xenji
    Registered Users Posts: 11,505 ✭✭✭✭Xenji


    I reckon after a fairly benign last two months we are due something and it looks like this will pack a serious punch.

    I have to actually travel up to Dublin Sunday afternoon which is looking like it could be quite an interesting journey.


  • #105
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM 18C certainly straying into Red Warning territory in Atlantic coastal counties.


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  • #106
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    COMIN ATIYAH!

    IV put extra cable ties on all the outdoor Christmas lighting,
    I hope my lights survive.


  • #107
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


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  • #108
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    Meteorite58 wrote: »
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    They are ferocious gusts for inland Ireland if they were to occur!

    Surely the ECM isn't over doing it at this time scale, it's usually the most Conservative, if it were still showing this tomorrow I'd be seriously getting prepared inland.


  • #109
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,096 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    That's looking hairy for West Clare, certainly worth keeping an eye on.


  • #110
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    squarecircles wrote: »
    They are ferocious gusts for inland Ireland if they were to occur!

    They sure are, high ground getting the strongest winds. Usually the speeds in the bold white are mountain or hill tops as in the Galteemore below matching the 145 km/h gusts. Strong winds in the windward side of it.

    h6ifKv7.png


  • #111
    Santy2015
    Registered Users Posts: 1,065 ✭✭✭Santy2015


    Looking stronger this morning. It’ll pack a good punch


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  • #112
    screamer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,130 ✭✭✭screamer


    Feck it have booked Santa visit out in the woods for tomorrow evening. Think I’ll have to let my money go, because no way I’m taking small kids into woods with damaging gusts around us.


  • #113
    giveitholly
    Registered Users Posts: 5,533 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    screamer wrote: »
    Feck it have booked Santa visit out in the woods for tomorrow evening. Think I’ll have to let my money go, because no way I’m taking small kids into woods with damaging gusts around us.

    If a red warning is issued would they have to cancel it and you would get your money back?


  • #114
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    giveitholly wrote: »
    If a red warning is issued would they have to cancel it and you would get your money back?

    I doubt it. These events can’t usually afford to refund.


  • #115
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM and ARPERGE the most consistent and showing the highest winds atm. ICON has drifted the very highest winds off the coast.

    Gusting to 130km/h and very possible to 140km/h and might get higher on a few exposed coastal stations in the W.

    Thinking probably seeing Orange for much of the country and probably red warnings in some Atlantic coastal counties.

    arpegeuk-52-57-0_iwp4.png

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  • #116
    giveitholly
    Registered Users Posts: 5,533 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    Meteorite58,what time do u think those red warnings would kick in if they were to go red?


  • #117
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    giveitholly wrote: »
    Meteorite58,what time do u think those red warnings would kick in if they were to go red?

    Probably from about 14.00 or 15.00


  • #118
    flazio
    Registered Users Posts: 12,782 ✭✭✭✭flazio


    Looking at the met app, it looks like it's been downgraded to a yellow for the whole country.


  • #119
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,114 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Warnings being updated. Still could be early for a red warning to be posted


  • #120
    flazio
    Registered Users Posts: 12,782 ✭✭✭✭flazio


    So why take the Atlantic coast counties off orange?
    This is the latest warning issued at 8 this morning.
    Status Yellow - Wind warning for Ireland
    UPDATE: Ahead of Storm Atiyah ( Ah-tee-ya)

    West to southwest winds will reach mean speeds of 50 to 65km/h with gusts of 90 to 110km/h in places this evening, tonight and Sunday.

    Valid: Saturday 07 December 2019 19:00 to Sunday 08 December 2019 13:00

    Issued: Saturday 07 December 2019 08:00


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  • #121
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,114 ✭✭✭pad199207


    flazio wrote: »
    So why take the Atlantic coast counties off orange?
    This is the latest warning issued at 8 this morning.

    Being amended. More counties likely to go orange with the possibility of a red warning for some counties.


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