What Happened to The Vacant Properties Counted in the Census?

PropQueries · 07-08-2020 2:34pm #1

There was an article in 2018 in The Guardian about 30,000 empty properties in Dublin. Does anyone know what happened these properties? Did the state lease them or did they re-enter the market in some other way? The article is here: https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/nov/29/empty-dublin-housing-crisis-airbnb-homelessness-landlords

Marius34 · 07-08-2020 2:53pm

PropQueries wrote: »

There was an article in 2018 in The Guardian about 30,000 empty properties in Dublin. Does anyone know what happened these properties? Did the state lease them or did they re-enter the market in some other way? The article is here: https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/nov/29/empty-dublin-housing-crisis-airbnb-homelessness-landlords

Those numbers are probably from 2016 census, which doesn't really tell if the house is actually permanently empty, but mainly that no habitant filled census on that particular address. It's rather used for the stats to identify trends in demography and etc. for further city infrastructure and social projects.

Unfortunately those numbers are later misused as propaganda tool. Even worst people love to read this kind of propaganda.

JimmyVik · 07-08-2020 3:23pm

Marius34 wrote: »

Those numbers are probably from 2016 census, which doesn't really tell if the house is actually permanently empty, but mainly that no habitant filled census on that particular address. It's rather used for the stats to identify trends in demography and etc. for further city infrastructure and social projects.

Unfortunately those numbers are later misused as propaganda tool. Even worst people love to read this kind of propaganda.

I found out recently that ive been living in an unoccupied house. Parents house is unoccupied too. According to the census.

PropQueries · 07-08-2020 4:04pm

Marius34 wrote: »

Those numbers are probably from 2016 census, which doesn't really tell if the house is actually permanently empty, but mainly that no habitant filled census on that particular address. It's rather used for the stats to identify trends in demography and etc. for further city infrastructure and social projects.

Unfortunately those numbers are later misused as propaganda tool. Even worst people love to read this kind of propaganda.

My understanding is that the census enumerators, call back several times to an empty property and also ask neighbours etc. to make sure a property is actually empty before it's recorded as such, so I think the Census figures may be fairly accurate in general.

fliball123 · 07-08-2020 4:09pm

PropQueries wrote: »

My understanding is that the census enumerators, call back several times to an empty property and also ask neighbours etc. to make sure a property is actually empty before it's recorded as such, so I think the Census figures may be fairly accurate in general.

That is not true at all its like the gardai blowing into the breathalyzers bump the numbers, remember your dealing with people and in human nature will you go out to the same place 3/4/5 times or just do it once and then instead of going out a 2nd/3rd/4th time go for a pint or a walk or something to eat or meet billy for a sambo and just say "asked the neighbors and no one lives there" sure no one is going to be going back over your work and if they do then if it changes who is to know if someone moved in , bought or whatever there is way to many ways to feck with the numbers with the consensus.

PropQueries · 07-08-2020 4:13pm

fliball123 wrote: »

That is not true at all its like the gardai blowing into the breathalyzers bump the numbers, remember your dealing with people and in human nature will you go out to the same place 3/4/5 times or just do it once and then instead of going out a 2nd/3rd/4th time go for a pint or a walk or something to eat or meet billy for a sambo and just say "asked the neighbors and no one lives there" sure no one is going to be going back over your work and if they do then if it changes who is to know if someone moved in , bought or whatever there is way to many ways to feck with the numbers with the consensus.

Not at all. Also, a lot of the AirBnB properties in Dublin at that time were recorded as holiday homes (they actually asked us and another neighbour about the house next to us a few times which was an AirBnB) and since they are now banned, the true number of vacant properties was probably higher. The census enumerators really do go to out of their way to ensure the data is correct. They really have nothing to gain by manipulating the data.

Cyrus · 07-08-2020 4:15pm

PropQueries wrote: »

The census enumerators really do go to out of their way to ensure the data is correct. They really have nothing to gain by manipulating the data.

they dont have anything to gain by killing themselves verifying if a house is vacant or not either

fliball123 · 07-08-2020 4:16pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Not at all. Also, a lot of the AirBnB properties in Dublin at that time were recorded as holiday homes (they actually asked us and another neighbour about the house next to us a few times which was an AirBnB) and since they are now banned, the true number of vacant properties was probably higher. The census enumerators really do go to out of their way to ensure the data is correct. They really have nothing to gain by manipulating the data.

Ah you will get some doing the job correctly as in the example above I am sure there were a lot of garda not blowing into the breathalyzers but if you have a good % not doing the job properly it can skew the figures and if the garda the people who we should have most trust in can do it then you can bet your life so can the lads going around taking the consensus. They do gain something they gain work time for their own.

PropQueries · 07-08-2020 4:25pm

fliball123 wrote: »

Ah you will get some doing the job correctly as in the example above I am sure there were a lot of garda not blowing into the breathalyzers but if you have a good % not doing the job properly it can skew the figures and if the garda the people who we should have most trust in can do it then you can bet your life so can the lads going around taking the consensus. They do gain something they gain work time for their own.

The link to how they define a vacant property is here: https://www.cso.ie/en/census/census2016reports/census2016vacanthousingstatisticsfaqs/

They state: "Enumerators also looked for signs of vacancy such as post and junk mail building up, no lights on at night time, no cars in driveways, overgrown gardens and no windows open. If they observed any signs of occupancy, they could not record the home as vacant. They also checked with neighbours to enquire about the homes where they could not make contact. If neighbours told them that there were people living in these homes, the enumerator could not record them as vacant."

As I said, their very thorough. A lot of people are surprised.

PropQueries · 07-08-2020 4:28pm

PropQueries wrote: »

The link to how they define a vacant property is here: https://www.cso.ie/en/census/census2016reports/census2016vacanthousingstatisticsfaqs/

They state: "Enumerators also looked for signs of vacancy such as post and junk mail building up, no lights on at night time, no cars in driveways, overgrown gardens and no windows open. If they observed any signs of occupancy, they could not record the home as vacant. They also checked with neighbours to enquire about the homes where they could not make contact. If neighbours told them that there were people living in these homes, the enumerator could not record them as vacant."

As I said, their very thorough. A lot of people are surprised.

Also, even if they were off by a wide margin, they still recorded a lot more vacant properties than London as can be seen here from the Guardian where they reported only 22,000 empty properties and that was even considered high for London: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/mar/11/empty-homes-england-rises-property

fliball123 · 07-08-2020 4:29pm

PropQueries wrote: »

The link to how they define a vacant property is here: https://www.cso.ie/en/census/census2016reports/census2016vacanthousingstatisticsfaqs/

They state: "Enumerators also looked for signs of vacancy such as post and junk mail building up, no lights on at night time, no cars in driveways, overgrown gardens and no windows open. If they observed any signs of occupancy, they could not record the home as vacant. They also checked with neighbours to enquire about the homes where they could not make contact. If neighbours told them that there were people living in these homes, the enumerator could not record them as vacant."

As I said, their very thorough. A lot of people are surprised.

I am not doubting the report I am doubting the people gathering the info for the report.

If I told you I had 2 cocks and put it in a report would you believe it?

I have showed you an example of how human nature kicks in when given a mundane task of asking people to blow into a tube. Now your talking about having to knock on a door 3/4/5 times and then knocking into a neighbor. You can be pretty sure a good % of the info gatherers didnt go near the door and just frigged it and had more time to hit pub. How often is the consensus taken?

cubatahavana · 07-08-2020 4:30pm

fliball123 wrote: »

I am not doubting the report I am doubting the people gathering the info for the report.

If I told you I had 2 cocks and put it in a report would you believe it?

I have showed you an example of how human nature kicks in when given a mundane task of asking people to blow into a tube. Now your talking about having to knock on a door 3/4/5 times and then knocking into a neighbor. You can be pretty sure a good % of the info gatherers didnt know and just frigged it and had more time to hit pub. How often is the consensus taken?

what kind of cocks? feathered? asking for a friend

fliball123 · 07-08-2020 4:33pm

cubatahavana wrote: »

what kind of cocks? feathered? asking for a friend

haha touche

PropQueries · 07-08-2020 4:33pm

fliball123 wrote: »

I am not doubting the report I am doubting the people gathering the info for the report.

If I told you I had 2 cocks and put it in a report would you believe it?

I have showed you an example of how human nature kicks in when given a mundane task of asking people to blow into a tube. Now your talking about having to knock on a door 3/4/5 times and then knocking into a neighbor. You can be pretty sure a good % of the info gatherers didnt know and just frigged it and had more time to hit pub. How often is the consensus taken?

I understand your skepticism but if you live in Dublin (maybe you do), you would notice a lot of empty houses and apartments and many of houses in the new build estates near me have been sitting there empty for the past 18 months and I have no idea what they're doing with them.

fliball123 · 07-08-2020 4:36pm

PropQueries wrote: »

I understand your skepticism but if you live in Dublin (maybe you do), you would notice a lot of empty houses and apartments and many of houses in the new build estates near me have been sitting there empty for the past 18 months and I have no idea what they're doing with them.

Ah no doubt there are empty houses but the manipulation will only bring numbers of empty property up as in if someone is in the house they will check house is being lived in. If there is no one there, they could call back, if no one is there again the could call back, If no one is there again or in the neighbors they could put a check beside empty and the house owners and neighbors could be on holidays. So the number in the report I would hazard a guess is a lot lower

JJJackal · 07-08-2020 4:38pm

PropQueries wrote: »

I understand your skepticism but if you live in Dublin (maybe you do), you would notice a lot of empty houses and apartments and many of houses in the new build estates near me have been sitting there empty for the past 18 months and I have no idea what they're doing with them.

Speculating that there will be a prise rise?
Selling in bulk to council?

PropQueries · 07-08-2020 4:43pm

fliball123 wrote: »

Ah no doubt there are empty houses but the manipulation will only bring numbers of empty property up as in if someone is in the house they will check house is being lived in. If there is no one there, they could call back, if no one is there again the could call back, If no one is there again or in the neighbors they could put a check beside empty and the house owners and neighbors could be on holidays. So the number in the report I would hazard a guess is a lot lower

Good point but they do state "...overgrown gardens..." etc. "If they observed any signs of occupancy, they could not record the home as vacant.".

Even if it is lower by a significant margin, London only had 22,000 vacant homes, so even if they're over-counting the number of truly vacant properties by a factor of 10, it's still significant for a city of our size: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/mar/11/empty-homes-england-rises-property

myshirt · 07-08-2020 4:47pm

Who exactly is running these illegal cock fights from vacant properties?

Marius34 · 07-08-2020 4:48pm

PropQueries wrote: »

My understanding is that the census enumerators, call back several times to an empty property and also ask neighbours etc. to make sure a property is actually empty before it's recorded as such, so I think the Census figures may be fairly accurate in general.

I'm confident census report is not precise at all in the sense of "Empty" properties. I live in Balgrifin (Dublin 13) some areas are recorded 50% vacancy.
Couple of main reasons:
1) Parkside Phase 1: many properties was in development/completed, that had address on it already. But houses were not completed, or people have not made a permanent move yet. Those are registered as vacant.
2) New Priory: an apartment buildings that due to fire issue was in no living conditions. It got almost complete rebuilt by now, and sells as new apartments. Those are registered as vacant.

There are many other reasons. And definitely not all workers in census waste a time to find out if the property is really vacant.

myshirt · 07-08-2020 4:52pm

Marius34 wrote: »

I'm confident census report is not precise at all in the sense of "Empty" properties. I live in Balgrifin (Dublin 13) some areas are recorded 50% vacancy.
Couple of main reasons:
1) Parkside Phase 1: many properties was in development/completed, that had address on it already. But houses were not completed, or people have not made a permanent move yet. Those are registered as vacant.
2) New Priory: an apartment buildings that due to fire issue was in no living conditions. It got almost complete rebuilt by now, and sells as new apartments. Those are registered as vacant.

There are many other reasons. And definitely not all workers in census waste a time to find out if the property is really vacant.

I think you are trying to undermine the integrity of the census, and I'm not having it. This isn't a survey for a new bingo night for the community hall. It's our census. It costs a shedload. It's a strong and robust process. Of course the information should be read in the right context, but by no means is it a bunch of enumerators not bothering their arse to do the job right. It's done right.

I know you didn't raise it directly but to the poster challenging the other poster with his two cocks, whether there is or isn't evidence of illegal cock fights included in the report is a side bar issue.

fliball123 · 07-08-2020 4:57pm

myshirt wrote: »

I think you are trying to undermine the integrity of the census, and I'm not having it. This isn't a survey for a new bingo night for the community hall. It's our census. It costs a shedload. It's a strong and robust process. Of course the information should be read in the right context, but by no means is it a bunch of enumerators not bothering their arse to do the job right. It's done right.

I know you didn't raise it directly but to the poster challenging the other poster with his two cocks, whether there is or isn't evidence of illegal cock fights included in the report is a side bar issue.

As has been pointed out if the garda can do it then anyone can but you go on living in that dream of yours where human nature doesn't exist.

Marius34 · 07-08-2020 4:58pm

myshirt wrote: »

I think you are trying to undermine the integrity of the census, and I'm not having it. This isn't a survey for a new bingo night for the community hall. It's our census. It costs a shedload. It's a strong and robust process. Of course the information should be read in the right context, but by no means is it a bunch of enumerators not bothering their arse to do the job right. It's done right.

Whether there is or isn't evidence of illegal cock fights included in the report is a side bar issue.

Don't get me wrong. I think the Census report is a great thing, and it provides lots of useful details. I think the numbers make sense, what i'm not happy, about misusing those number. The vacancy from their data doesn't mean that it has no permanent resident in it, and it is in livable conditions. It simply wrong to use those number as of vacant properties in supply side.

myshirt · 07-08-2020 5:00pm

Marius34 wrote: »

Don't get me wrong. I think the Census report is a great thing, and it provides lots of useful details. I think the numbers make sense, what i'm not happy, about misusing those number. The vacancy from their data doesn't mean that it has no permanent resident in it, and it is in livable conditions. It simply wrong to use those number as of vacant properties in supply side.

There is too much data, and too little insights, agreed, but if you know how to use the data then it is great. It's certainly reliable would be my view.

PropQueries · 07-08-2020 5:01pm

Marius34 wrote: »

I'm confident census report is not precise at all in the sense of "Empty" properties. I live in Balgrifin (Dublin 13) some areas are recorded 50% vacancy.
Couple of main reasons:
1) Parkside Phase 1: many properties was in development/completed, that had address on it already. But houses were not completed, or people have not made a permanent move yet. Those are registered as vacant.
2) New Priory: an apartment buildings that due to fire issue was in no living conditions. It got almost complete rebuilt by now, and sells as new apartments. Those are registered as vacant.

There are many other reasons. And definitely not all workers in census waste a time to find out if the property is really vacant.

Good point but I don't think they include houses even 9/10ths complete. They would need to be complete and ready for occupancy so technically they were completed units and they were vacant.

myshirt · 07-08-2020 5:04pm

fliball123 wrote: »

As has been pointed out if the garda can do it then anyone can but you go on living in that dream of yours where human nature doesn't exist.

Your scenario only works where someone is marking their own homework. There's a whole governance process here. The plan isn't just thought up over a few jars such that some enumerator can simply not bother his arse and get away with it.

I was paid by Willie O'Dea to hand out leaflets when I was young and I dumped them all in the bin rather than hand them out. Willie found out.
And that was just a couple of leaflets. The census has a whole governance process.

PropQueries · 07-08-2020 5:14pm

myshirt wrote: »

Your scenario only works where someone is marking their own homework. There's a whole governance process here. The plan isn't just thought up over a few jars such that some enumerator can simply not bother his arse and get away with it.

I was paid by Willie O'Dea to hand out leaflets when I was young and I dumped them all in the bin rather than hand them out. Willie found out.
And that was just a couple of leaflets. The census has a whole governance process.

Everyone actually has good points here (even the two cocks analogy lol) and it's always good to hear other views either way. But, I think if the census figures on vacant units were way off, the various so-called vested interested e.g. estate agents etc. would have publicly debunked it. To my knowledge, they haven't so there must be some truth to the figures.

thomas 123 · 07-08-2020 5:28pm

Cyrus wrote: »

this bemoaning of the 3.5x rule drives me mad, house prices would be a lot higher without it.

I wouldn’t call pointing out a rule that causes problems when trying to build or buy a house bemoaning.

The supply issue is driving the prices for a decent house beyond the scope of that rule.

MacronvFrugals · 07-08-2020 5:29pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Everyone actually has good points here (even the two cocks analogy lol) and it's always good to hear other views either way. But, I think if the census figures on vacant units were way off, the various so-called vested interested e.g. estate agents etc. would have publicly debunked it. To my knowledge, they haven't so there must be some truth to the figures.

O'Dea's a dangerous man

PropQueries · 07-08-2020 5:31pm

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

O'Dea's a dangerous man

It's why he keeps getting elected lol

Marius34 · 07-08-2020 5:35pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Good point but I don't think they include houses even 9/10ths complete. They would need to be complete and ready for occupancy so technically they were completed units and they were vacant.

It did count, once it has address on it.

PropQueries · 07-08-2020 5:38pm

Marius34 wrote: »

It did count, once it has address on it.

Are they from the 2016 Census though?

What Happened to The Vacant Properties Counted in the Census?

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