Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

AngryLips · 07-08-2020 11:48am

Wanderer78 wrote: »

build

But that's exactly what these Ires Reit are doing, building more rental stock. Who else is going to do it? One-off landlords?

Wanderer78 · 07-08-2020 12:10pm

AngryLips wrote: »

But that's exactly what these Ires Reit are doing, building more rental stock. Who else is going to do it? One-off landlords?

we need to rapidly increase our stock of public housing, we have pre existing methods to do so, but we will need the help of the private sector, to do so

AngryLips · 07-08-2020 12:28pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

we need to rapidly increase our stock of public housing, we have pre existing methods to do so, but we will need the help of the private sector, to do so

Well increasing public sector housing will only have a limited reduction in the demand for private rental accommodation because not everyone wants to be on a Government housing list. How do you (and other posters who seem to be hostile to 'vulture funds') suggest the Government help grow supply for private rental accommodation if you're against large institutional investors capable of providing extra capacity at scale coming into the market?

Wanderer78 · 07-08-2020 12:31pm

AngryLips wrote: »

Well increasing public sector housing will only have a limited reduction in the demand for private rental accommodation because not everyone wants to be on a Government housing list. How do you (and other posters who seem to be hostile to 'vulture funds') suggest the Government help grow supply for private rental accommodation if you're against large institutional investors capable of providing extra capacity at scale coming into the market?

we re currently over reliant on the private sector in creating our housing and accommodation needs, which obviously currently cant meet those needs, theres nothing stopping us from filling this void publicly, only our will, the finances required, can easily be created publicly, but the private sector would also be required to actually build.

we again, have defaulted since the last crash, back to private sector financial institutions, the same sector that ultimately caused the crash in the first place, we havent learned much from the previous crash

AngryLips · 07-08-2020 1:17pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

we re currently over reliant on the private sector in creating our housing and accommodation needs

I don't think there is much in the way of opposition to this statement, the last election was fought over this very subject - there needs to be more direct Government involvement in housing. But saying that we're over-reliant on the private sector for housing is not the same thing as recognizing the need for greater supply and quality of private rental accommodation, but you seem to be conflating the two because of some ideological opposition to private enterprise. Don't complain about rents in one breath then complain about the solution to that problem in the next breath. Either you recognise there's a problem in the private rental sector or you think it's just a symptom of the problem to do with the public housing shortage, so which is it? Because I don't think all the thousands of workers in Dublin from other parts of the country or from other EU countries would have their needs met by public housing, do you?

Wanderer78 · 07-08-2020 1:42pm

AngryLips wrote:

I don't think there is much in the way of opposition to this statement, the last election was fought over this very subject - there needs to be more direct Government involvement in housing. But saying that we're over-reliant on the private sector for housing is not the same thing as recognizing the need for greater supply and quality of private rental accommodation, but you seem to be conflating the two because of some ideological opposition to private enterprise. Don't complain about rents in one breath then complain about the solution to that problem in the next breath. Either you recognise there's a problem in the private rental sector or you think it's just a symptom of the problem to do with the public housing shortage, so which is it? Because I don't think all the thousands of workers in Dublin from other parts of the country or from other EU countries would have their needs met by public housing, do you?

The private sector is both the problem and potential solution to the problem, the main problem with major investment groups is that they gain most if the funding from private sector financial institutions, in order to build, this is exactly what happened in the last boom, and subsequent bust, so by allowing them to do so again, I'm sure things will turn out differently!

We have significantly reduced the ability of our public sectors to create the finance for such critical needs, and it's abilities to actually build, this is ultimately why the private sector is required to build, but it would be better if the finances were created publically this time around, we might just prevent around financial crisis

Smouse156 · 07-08-2020 1:48pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

If they could get an entire estate of old buildings- that they could upgrade in one foul swoop- I think they'd go for it.

The bigger issue for institutional investors more so than anything else- is scale.
It makes no sense whatsoever to have individual units, or very small clusters of units- from a logistical and management perspective, these type units are simply too complex on a day to day basis for them to manage.

What they want is scale- be it large housing estates (look at what has happened in Maynooth and Leixlip with Cairn for example)- or the multitude of MUDs around Dublin/Cork/Galway that have been proliferating.

Driving small scale landlords of 1-2-3 units out of the market- drives ye 2-3-4 bed semi-d in urbanville out of the rental mix- and pushes prospective tenants into large scale developments where *everyone* is renting (look at how Cairn cancelled all the private sales in Maynooth and returned deposits to the annoyance of prospective buyers)- even looking at the leafy suburbs- such as Maynooth- is creating rental ghettos where there simply are no owner occupiers.

This is what people are pushing for- whether they realise it or not- and the large scale institutional investors- are faceless entities who simply won't care about personal circumstances- unlike the private landlords- many of whom are approachable and willing to go the extra mile (notwithstanding the couple of complete stronzos).

If you want large scale rental estates- you're going down that road.........

Agreed...except with the word leafy ðŸ˜‚

AngryLips · 07-08-2020 2:49pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

The private sector is both the problem and potential solution to the problem, the main problem with major investment groups is that they gain most if the funding from private sector financial institutions, in order to build, this is exactly what happened in the last boom, and subsequent bust, so by allowing them to do so again, I'm sure things will turn out differently!

When you imply that they shouldn't be allowed to borrow again because of the previous economic downturn, who are you suggesting is better placed to do it? Small one-off landlords? Since when did those cowboys ever build anything to serve the market? Most one-off landlords are renting because they've accumulated enough wealth to own more than one property and there are enough examples on Daft for you too see exactly how that's turned out. It's poor value for the renter and they often undermine living conditions in big cities - how is that a good thing?

Wanderer78 · 07-08-2020 3:26pm

AngryLips wrote: »

When you imply that they shouldn't be allowed to borrow again because of the previous economic downturn, who are you suggesting is better placed to do it? Small one-off landlords? Since when did those cowboys ever build anything to serve the market? Most one-off landlords are renting because they've accumulated enough wealth to own more than one property and there are enough examples on Daft for you too see exactly how that's turned out. It's poor value for the renter and they often undermine living conditions in big cities - how is that a good thing?

you ll actually find our current approach of leaving our accommodation needs to the so called 'the market', is actually failing many land lords and tenents. we re too heavily dependent on private sector created credit to solve this issue, hence why we experienced a 'credit crisis', we urgently need to move back to more publicly created finance to resolve these issues, i.e. bonds etc, i.e. publicly create the money, and allow the private sector to do the actual building, as we dont have the public means of doing so. you ll find private sector financial activities have been the main root cause of our housing and accommodation issues

The Student · 07-08-2020 3:53pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

you ll actually find our current approach of leaving our accommodation needs to the so called 'the market', is actually failing many land lords and tenents. we re too heavily dependent on private sector created credit to solve this issue, hence why we experienced a 'credit crisis', we urgently need to move back to more publicly created finance to resolve these issues, i.e. bonds etc, i.e. publicly create the money, and allow the private sector to do the actual building, as we dont have the public means of doing so. you ll find private sector financial activities have been the main root cause of our housing and accommodation issues

The market is failing because of constant interference by the State. Be it HAP, First time buyers grant etc.

If the market was left to actually function as a market should then at least some of the participants be they a mixture of tenants and landlords would at least be happy.

In case it has passed you by we owe €230b (€30b of which is due to Covid). How are we supposed to actually pay this back?

Your suggestion is to get further into debt! I would not mind getting into further debt if we those who benefit from the debt actually paid it back but they don't and we as a society never seem to deal with it.

How many people have not paid mortgages for years and still in their houses, how long does it take to evict a non paying tenant in private rented accommodation? how likely will the landlord recoup lost rent?

How many local authority tenants are behind in their rent? how many have ever been evicted?

Its all well and good coming up with the ideology of "lets just borrow to build" but what about paying back what we borrow?

Wanderer78 · 07-08-2020 4:04pm

The Student wrote:

Its all well and good coming up with the ideology of "lets just borrow to build" but what about paying back what we borrow?

How do you think the private sector pays for housing?

The Student · 07-08-2020 4:14pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

How do you think the private sector pays for housing?

You were the one who suggested more public housing and that this should be financed by bonds!

Wanderer78 · 07-08-2020 4:18pm

The Student wrote:

You were the one who suggested more public housing and that this should be financed by bonds!

True, but I assume your talking about funding it via the private sector?

The Student · 07-08-2020 5:03pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

True, but I assume your talking about funding it via the private sector?

If you want public housing the State has to fund it. How does private sector funding come into it.

If the State borrows from the private sector then the State is liable.

Wanderer78 · 07-08-2020 5:14pm

The Student wrote:

If you want public housing the State has to fund it. How does private sector funding come into it.

Private sector housing finance largely comes from private sector financial institutions in the form of credit, we ve already experienced what happens when we overly rely on this method of money creation, I.e. 'credit crisis', by shifting finance creation towards the other main method, I.e. bond creation, it reduces this risk, baring in mind, it doesn't eliminate it, it also spreads the debt load over society, and can be spread over a longer period, I.e. long term bonds. Obviously it's critical no matter which method you use to create the finance, that a serious attempt is made to pay it back, as the system as a whole has limited buffer ability for defaults etc. Private sector credit creation concentrates the debt, public methods can be far less concentrated, it's why I also advocate for public banking systems.

The Student · 07-08-2020 5:34pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Private sector housing finance largely comes from private sector financial institutions in the form of credit, we ve already experienced what happens when we overly rely on this method of money creation, I.e. 'credit crisis', by shifting finance creation towards the other main method, I.e. bond creation, it reduces this risk, baring in mind, it doesn't eliminate it, it also spreads the debt load over society, and can be spread over a longer period, I.e. long term bonds. Obviously it's critical no matter which method you use to create the finance, that a serious attempt is made to pay it back, as the system as a whole has limited buffer ability for defaults etc. Private sector credit creation concentrates the debt, public methods can be far less concentrated, it's why I also advocate for public banking systems.

We can't afford more debt as a country, you either can't or do not want to accept this fact. Unemployment is going to increase and the PUP payments are going to stop so income tax revenue is going to reduce.

There is not a serious attempt to pay it back. It always falls on the tax payer.

Local authority tenants who don't pay rent don't get evicted so no consequences for not paying rent.

We don't do public ownership well, public ownership leads to inefficiency.

So it falls on those who sometimes don't benefit to cover for some of those who do benefit but don't pay.

Wanderer78 · 07-08-2020 5:44pm

The Student wrote:

We don't do public ownership well, public ownership leads to inefficiency.

Singapore seems to be doing just fine with widescale public ownership! Let's talk about the inefficiencies of the private sector in the form of 'rent seeking'!

So your solution is, let private sector financial institutions create the money via credit creation, just like we did the last time?

Graham · 07-08-2020 5:51pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Let's talk about the inefficiencies of the private sector in the form of 'rent seeking'

Mod Note

Please start a separate thread to discuss that further.

GocRh · 08-08-2020 10:52am

Has anyone seen any appreciable reduction in prices in Dublin?

I'm currently renting and want to move due to constant noise from a building site nearby. I've replied to a few listings and it seems to be business as usual - agents who couldn't be bothered to reply, high prices and limited options.

As much as I'd like to see prices fall, or at the very least more options available, it does seem that not much has changed or will change.

The_Conductor · 08-08-2020 11:01am

GocRh wrote: »

Has anyone seen any appreciable reduction in prices in Dublin?

I'm currently renting and want to move due to constant noise from a building site nearby. I've replied to a few listings and it seems to be business as usual - agents who couldn't be bothered to reply, high prices and limited options.

As much as I'd like to see prices fall, or at the very least more options available, it does seem that not much has changed or will change.

Supply has doubled- however from around 1,200 units free at any given time on DAFT and Myhome.ie to a little under 3k units.

In the context of rental supply- this is peanuts. Landlords are deliberately not advertising property when they eventually get vacant possession- and all evictions were on hold until a week ago- and in the case of a household where anyone is in receipt of a Covid payment- they still are.

The great unwinding of supply- has not happened.
There are a few nice high end units coming on stream- at reduced (but still extortionate) prices- that people are making an effort to view (high end units always are popular).

Until such time as the bottleneck in the market (ban on ending of tenancies for whatever reason) has happened- you're not going to see any great increase in supply- and without a noticeable increase in supply- you're not going to get a reduction in prices.

GocRh · 08-08-2020 11:16am

The_Conductor wrote: »

In the context of rental supply- this is peanuts. Landlords are deliberately not advertising property when they eventually get vacant possession- and all evictions were on hold until a week ago- and in the case of a household where anyone is in receipt of a Covid payment- they still are.

Is there any evidence that tenants are not paying rent en masse?
In the context of REITs and large landlords, the tenant vetting process was always very strict so they'd usually attract a higher 'quality' of tenant.
IRES reported a few months ago that on time rent collection was over 90%. Properties that I'm looking for fall within that bracket - 2bed under 1.9k.

I do believe that there will be more units available but likely to be on the lower end of the market (student accommodation and airbnbs).

I also think that Dublin and Ireland might become less attractive to skilled workers from elsewhere in the EU and that could eventually lower the demand... But that's not happening overnight.

DubCount · 08-08-2020 1:01pm

GocRh wrote: »

Is there any evidence that tenants are not paying rent en masse?
In the context of REITs and large landlords, the tenant vetting process was always very strict so they'd usually attract a higher 'quality' of tenant.
IRES reported a few months ago that on time rent collection was over 90%. Properties that I'm looking for fall within that bracket - 2bed under 1.9k.

I do believe that there will be more units available but likely to be on the lower end of the market (student accommodation and airbnbs).

I also think that Dublin and Ireland might become less attractive to skilled workers from elsewhere in the EU and that could eventually lower the demand... But that's not happening overnight.

What you have to understand is that it does not require tenants stopping rent payments en masse to have an effect on the market. If you are a small LL with 1-2 properties, one default is all it can take to really murder your finances. The chances of getting stung may be small, but its not "getting struck by lightening" small. Its happening sufficiently often to make LLs consider the risk.

Bigger LLs and REITS can sustain the risk. 90% paying when you have hundreds of properties is fine. For a small LL with 1 property, its not going to be 90% - its either 100% or 0% - nothing in between.

Much of the current increase in supply in temporary in my view. We will see students attending colleges in person again and needing to live close to colleges. Tourism will return as will AirBnB. Work from home will be more popular than in the past, but wont stay at current levels.

The real issue is not current availability. Its what availability will be like when Covid has run its course.

GocRh · 08-08-2020 1:10pm

DubCount wrote: »

The real issue is not current availability. Its what availability will be like when Covid has run its course.

Fully agree. No one can know for sure what will happen.

I also agree that small / occasional LLs will not be able to sustain any shocks, which begs the question - will even more small LLs exit the rental market, further increasing the dominance of large LLs that can spread the risk in multiple properties and set higher prices or more restrictive terms?
IRES for a while now demand 2 months of deposit even for unfurnished apartments, and are known to charge extra for car park. Current regulations don't prohibit extra charges.

The_Conductor · 08-08-2020 2:23pm

GocRh wrote: »

Is there any evidence that tenants are not paying rent en masse?
In the context of REITs and large landlords, the tenant vetting process was always very strict so they'd usually attract a higher 'quality' of tenant.
IRES reported a few months ago that on time rent collection was over 90%. Properties that I'm looking for fall within that bracket - 2bed under 1.9k.

I do believe that there will be more units available but likely to be on the lower end of the market (student accommodation and airbnbs).

I also think that Dublin and Ireland might become less attractive to skilled workers from elsewhere in the EU and that could eventually lower the demand... But that's not happening overnight.

IRES REIT issued their quarterly trading statement yesterday- advising of an impairment in pro-rata returns, due to the inability to move delinquint tenants during the Covid lockdown. They nonetheless approved a quarterly dividend of 2.8c/share (this is quarterly mind).

JJJackal · 08-08-2020 4:24pm

GocRh wrote: »

Fully agree. No one can know for sure what will happen.

I also agree that small / occasional LLs will not be able to sustain any shocks, which begs the question - will even more small LLs exit the rental market, further increasing the dominance of large LLs that can spread the risk in multiple properties and set higher prices or more restrictive terms?
IRES for a while now demand 2 months of deposit even for unfurnished apartments, and are known to charge extra for car park. Current regulations don't prohibit extra charges.

It makes sense for small landlords to set up some sort of Co-op type arrangement. Not sure legally how it would work.

Like farmers did for dairy etc
Reduce individual risk, buffer sudden losses and have the rite guys set up to repair, rent and evict

AngryLips · 08-08-2020 4:30pm

JJJackal wrote: »

It makes sense for small landlords to set up some sort of Co-op type arrangement. Not sure legally how it would work.

Like farmers did for dairy etc
Reduce individual risk, buffer sudden losses and have the rite guys set up to repair, rent and evict

Don't think most landlords would be capable of acting in anything other than their own self interest enough to achieve this.

Wanderer78 · 08-08-2020 4:34pm

JJJackal wrote: »

It makes sense for small landlords to set up some sort of Co-op type arrangement. Not sure legally how it would work.

Like farmers did for dairy etc
Reduce individual risk, buffer sudden losses and have the rite guys set up to repair, rent and evict

i currently live in a co-op built house, i think they should be encouraged, i wouldnt advocate for private eviction groups though, our current housing issues are a complete mess for everybody involved, including land lords

PommieBast · 08-08-2020 8:59pm

GocRh wrote: »

Has anyone seen any appreciable reduction in prices in Dublin?

I'm keeping a close eye on apartments in Dublin-1 and I've seen some reductions of a few hundred in the last 2-3 weeks. Still too expensive for anyone to move into the area, but for people like me who already rent here it is a great opportunity to trade up.

GocRh · 08-08-2020 10:57pm

PommieBast wrote: »

I'm keeping a close eye on apartments in Dublin-1 and I've seen some reductions of a few hundred in the last 2-3 weeks. Still too expensive for anyone to move into the area, but for people like me who already rent here it is a great opportunity to trade up.

I live nearby in D8, modern apartment complex, mostly owned by a large REIT, no reductions in price here.
Not many airbnbs in D8, perhaps that's what's pushing prices down in D1?

PommieBast · 09-08-2020 12:07am

GocRh wrote: »

I live nearby in D8, modern apartment complex, mostly owned by a large REIT, no reductions in price here.
Not many airbnbs in D8, perhaps that's what's pushing prices down in D1?

Certainly all the tourist and corporate stuff disappearing has played a part. Most of the reasons D1 commanded a large mark-up, such as being near everything, simply no longer apply.

Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

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