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The decline continues

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  • #392
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,520 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Muahahaha wrote: »
    Isn't that already happening? Lots of local news websites have popped up and they do court reporting, deaths and local news. The likes of kildarenow.com and donegaldaily.com are reporting the local gossip for free and on a daily basis rather than once a week. I know up in Donegal that donegaldaily.com has become the go to news source for a lot of locals, it must be having a detrimental effect on the Donegal Democrat.

    In specific DC areas only, so far.


  • #393
    JTMan
    Registered Users Posts: 5,535 ✭✭✭JTMan


    Anyone any thoughts on the INM results:
    - Advertising revenue down 8.8%
    - Circulation revenue down 6.3%
    - Profits down 15% (some exceptional items)
    - Digital advertising down 2%
    - Digital as a percentage of overall revenue under 8%.
    - Circulation numbers for all INM newspapers heading south fast.
    - Purchased 2 distribution companies last year. Seems like distribution revenue from coffee shops, donuts shops and stationary is increasing.
    - Paywall in 2020 (Heard that one before).
    - Big legal issues.
    - Reading between the lines of their accounts, the Irish Daily Star appears to have made 0.8m profit. About half the 2017 profits.
    - More cost cutting.

    Too dependent on a legacy old media print industry that is dying fast. But still keeping its head above water and growing other distribution revenue. But long term they still seem to be fecked.


  • #394
    jmcc
    Registered Users Posts: 7,278 ✭✭✭jmcc


    Seems that IN&M is in play.
    https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0404/1040621-independent-news-and-media-approach/

    Regards...jmcc


  • #395
    IRE60
    Registered Users Posts: 1,880 ✭✭✭IRE60


    Just about to post that! Very interesting times. Would have to pass the CCPE


  • #396
    jmcc
    Registered Users Posts: 7,278 ✭✭✭jmcc


    IRE60 wrote: »
    Just about to post that! Very interesting times. Would have to pass the CCPE
    And there's the politics of the situation. Dinny spent over 500 million or so acquiring his shares and he is unlikely to make that back on any sale. It is all very early stage so there's no real information out there yet. However, an IN&M without Dinny as the largest shareholder could be interesting and the decline in advertising revenue will be one of the first things addressed by the new owners. That could mean consolidation and elimination. Most of the "content generator" stuff on the Dindo site could easily be replaced by a few algorithms (like the Journal and DailyEdge people, it is hard to consider them as journalists rather than as content generators). The attempt to imitate the Daily Mail site but without the T&A does not seem to have worked out and there was some digital subscription model mooted a few years ago. The digital subscriptions thing is highly problematic in a market as small as Ireland and the quality of content to justify a subscription isn't really there.

    Regards...jmcc


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  • #397
    Idbatterim
    Registered Users Posts: 17,840 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    They are simply too expensive is one issue. It’s three euro something for the sindo, the sterling price is less than two pounds afaik! Absolute joke!


  • #398
    IRE60
    Registered Users Posts: 1,880 ✭✭✭IRE60


    Idbatterim wrote: »
    They are simply too expensive is one issue. It’s three euro something for the sindo, the sterling price is less than two pounds afaik! Absolute joke!


    But....it's €5 per month for the London Times (and the Orish edition). Thats 6 days of the London Times and the Sunday Times - great value as the ST is €3 per week in the first place.


  • #399
    IRE60
    Registered Users Posts: 1,880 ✭✭✭IRE60


    https://otp.investis.com/clients/uk/inmp/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?newsid=1245555&cid=29


  • #400
    IRE60
    Registered Users Posts: 1,880 ✭✭✭IRE60


    I see from the Indo statement today to the Exchange that (If I'm reading it correctly) that HSBC bought 2.5% of the shares yesterday.


    I also note, with great sadness, that the stalworth of magazing publishing 'Funeral Director Monthly' is leaving the ABC certification process.


  • #401
    JTMan
    Registered Users Posts: 5,535 ✭✭✭JTMan


    HSBC were probably purchasing on behalf of someone else.

    Anyone got an idea who the potential acquirer is?


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  • #402
    IRE60
    Registered Users Posts: 1,880 ✭✭✭IRE60


    Michael Doorly said earlier that its wasn't Axel Springer or Schibsted.



    There would be some serious hoops to go through with the CCPE so having a media shareholding here, might be, a disadvantage.


    I wouldnt completely discount Dinny or his best mate! They might feel the time is right and take it private.



    Reading their annual accounts was at best depressing, and there's no magic want hanging about.


  • #403
    jmcc
    Registered Users Posts: 7,278 ✭✭✭jmcc


    IRE60 wrote: »
    I wouldnt completely discount Dinny or his best mate! They might feel the time is right and take it private.
    Not sure that Dinny has the money. He does seem to be having issues with Didn't Sell and had to doe a deal with bondholders. Since Clinton didn't become president, things haven't being going well for him. If Trump looks like being reelected, then things will be a lot worse as his Digicel operates outside the US and the currency rates will have an effect. The share structure was a bit Googly with Digicel's share offering in that control would have stayed with O'Brien rather than other shareholders and there's a massive debt issue with the company. It has been liquidating capital assets over the last few years as well and that's not a good sign. It also pulled major sports sponsorship deals as revenue and bond problems intensified. There's a blood trail of debt there.

    The Buckley issue with IN&M and that radio station also looks bad. O'Brien spent about 500 million Euro acquiring approximately 29% of the shares in IN&M and those shares are worth a small fraction of that now. IN&M, for all its assumed grandeur, is just a penny stock. IN&M had to be bailed out a few years ago when some banks wrote off some of its debt ( https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/banks-write-off-138m-of-inm-debt-229658.html ). With the declining market for newspapers, the long term prospects IN&M are not good and this might be more a firesale with the intention of a breakup and elimination of non-profitable publications.

    Regards...jmcc


  • #404
    JTMan
    Registered Users Posts: 5,535 ✭✭✭JTMan


    jmcc wrote: »
    With the declining market for newspapers, the long term prospects IN&M are not good and this might be more a firesale with the intention of a breakup and elimination of non-profitable publications.

    Any new owner, right now, would be silly to close any of the national titles (maybe some of the regionals are at closure stage). For the nationals, there is still more blood to be extracted from the stones. The simple recipe of smaller newsroom, smaller budgets, smaller print runs, smaller page counts — year after year after year. A publication simply needs the annual 'cost % decline' to exceed the 'revenue % decline' and then the publication can continue. There is still scope for cost cuts. Someday, the “cost of print” and “revenue from print” lines will intersect on an accountant’s projection and it’ll be time to stop the presses for good. We are not there yet, with the IN&M nationals, even the Irish Daily Star is still profitable (1m+) and contributes huge sums (6m+) to the wider IN&M group each year for services. It is both profitable and a net contributor to the group and that is despite a 65%+ decline in circulation from peak. The day will come to wave goodbye to legacy IN&M titles, but that day is still a while away.


  • #405
    JTMan
    Registered Users Posts: 5,535 ✭✭✭JTMan


    INM are in advanced talks to shut down their Irish printing presses and start using The Irish Times to do all the printing of their nationals and regionals. Another cost cutting measure which will reduce costs further which will prolong the life of their legal newspaper titles that big longer.


  • #406
    Muahahaha
    Registered Users Posts: 19,609 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    Plus selling off the Citywest printing facility. I wonder what a building like that might get converted into


  • #407
    JTMan
    Registered Users Posts: 5,535 ✭✭✭JTMan


    A REIT owns the building. IN&M do not own it. However, IN&M pay 400k per year in rent to the REIT. This is on top of the large staffing costs. The closure of the print plant is a rent saving, staff saving, operational simplification exercise.


  • #408
    JTMan
    Registered Users Posts: 5,535 ✭✭✭JTMan


    The Sunday Business Post reports that IN&Ms distribution wing might be sold off too if IN&M is sold.


  • #409
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,520 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    The distribution wing is basically a general purpose logistics firm now.

    Newsprinters in GB are doing the same expansion now - distributing all sorts of products in London at least


  • #410
    expectationlost
    Registered Users Posts: 11,749 ✭✭✭✭expectationlost


    a number of reporters moving around, I would wonder about the people signing up to report under the new owner of the SBP.


  • #411
    dulpit
    Registered Users Posts: 10,226 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    expectationlost wrote: »
    a number of reporters moving around, I would wonder about the people signing up to report under the new owner of the SBP.

    Seems like The Times Ireland is growing at a consistent pace, every few months seems to have a new hire.

    The Times puzzles me actually - the editorial line it takes seems the complete opposite of the mothership in London.. It seems to be working here though...


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  • #412
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users Posts: 5,798 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    dulpit wrote: »
    Seems like The Times Ireland is growing at a consistent pace, every few months seems to have a new hire.

    The Times puzzles me actually - the editorial line it takes seems the complete opposite of the mothership in London.. It seems to be working here though...

    Much like the Irish Daily Mail always largely agreed with the Irish government on Brexit.


  • #413
    JTMan
    Registered Users Posts: 5,535 ✭✭✭JTMan


    expectationlost wrote: »
    a number of reporters moving around, I would wonder about the people signing up to report under the new owner of the SBP.

    The new owner has said that he might close the SBP print operation, so it would be a strange time to start a job there.


  • #414
    JTMan
    Registered Users Posts: 5,535 ✭✭✭JTMan


    ABCs for March 2019 are out. UK numbers here. UK newspapers in Ireland numbers here. The decline continues.


  • #415
    IRE60
    Registered Users Posts: 1,880 ✭✭✭IRE60


    JTMan wrote: »
    ABCs for March 2019 are out. UK numbers here. UK newspapers in Ireland numbers here. The decline continues.

    It's interesting that News UK have decided to all but abandon the bulks as of March. Sunday Times is the only one to carry a decent amount About 5%.


  • #416
    JTMan
    Registered Users Posts: 5,535 ✭✭✭JTMan


    IRE60 wrote: »
    It's interesting that News UK have decided to all but abandon the bulks as of March. Sunday Times is the only one to carry a decent amount About 5%.

    It is and it was an Ireland only decision. News UK are still carrying on with bulks in the UK. The Times UK Ireland Edition now only has circulation of aprox. 3,500 per edition, difficult to see why News UK bother to produce a surely-loss-making Irish edition with such low circulation number.


  • #417
    dulpit
    Registered Users Posts: 10,226 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    JTMan wrote: »
    It is and it was an Ireland only decision. News UK are still carrying on with bulks in the UK. The Times UK Ireland Edition now only has circulation of aprox. 3,500 per edition, difficult to see why News UK bother to produce a surely-loss-making Irish edition with such low circulation number.

    Does that figure exclude online subscriptions?


  • #418
    JTMan
    Registered Users Posts: 5,535 ✭✭✭JTMan


    Yes


  • #419
    JTMan
    Registered Users Posts: 5,535 ✭✭✭JTMan


    Iconic Newspapers have acquired 2 titles from Alpha Newspapers. Iconic Newspapers now 21 regional titles in Ireland from 3 sets of acquisitions. Iconic Newspaper are the biggest regional publisher by some distance. INM, IT and Celtic Media are the only other 3 regional publishers with any real scale.

    Another example of consolidation in the newspaper industry which will help reduce costs further and help milk a little more time out of the legacy old media business line.


  • #420
    jmcc
    Registered Users Posts: 7,278 ✭✭✭jmcc


    JTMan wrote: »
    ABCs for March 2019 are out. UK numbers here. UK newspapers in Ireland numbers here. The decline continues.
    Hard reading for newspaper owners but there may be a long term shift away from the daily newspapers to the weekend/Sundays. Even the FT has a large Saturday edition and the Irish Times introduced a Saturday edition to stem the growth of the Sunday Times and the Sunday Tribune (the IT was fishing in the same puddle of readers).

    Digital subscriptions are no replacement for paper sales. Unless some newspapers can do deals with local cable TV providers allowing a kind of TV/web combination channel, they are screwed. And even then the situation would be dire.

    Regards...jmcc


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  • #421
    IRE60
    Registered Users Posts: 1,880 ✭✭✭IRE60


    jmcc wrote: »
    Hard reading for newspaper owners but there may be a long term shift away from the daily newspapers to the weekend/Sundays. Even the FT has a large Saturday edition and the Irish Times introduced a Saturday edition to stem the growth of the Sunday Times and the Sunday Tribune (the IT was fishing in the same puddle of readers).

    Interesting! I'm reliably informed that the M-F edition of the IT is seeing decline like the rest of the market. However the Saturday edition is not seeing anything like that decline, even with a price increase.

    Many publishers get a real lift from Saturday sales and, on average, there's a 50% increase in sales of the Saturday edition on the average M-F sales*.

    So maybe there is a shift towards the Saturday edition

    The Guardian charges a premium for the cover price on saturday and gets a huge lift in sales. The Saturday edition of the Guardian delivers 52% of the total revenue the Guardian takes in the Republic.

    *for the papers that split their abc certs to show M-F and Sat sales


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