Homelessness on the rise

Sleeper12 · 13-09-2018 3:26pm

Augeo wrote: »

Mmmmmm I'll spell it out for you......

December 2011 - 98.9
December 2012 - 100.9

that's not an 8.2% rise

And the graph I showed (nationwide) showed clearly falling rents across the nation in 2012)

One has to look beyond the headlines when talking about specifics

The 2012 average of 100 seems the be the starting point ......... that does indeed indicate that the 8.2% rise wasn't seen in 2012, if it was then they'd have taken 2011 as the starting point, but it wasn't so they couldn't. HTH.

2009 to 2012 (inclusive) was the bottom of the rental market. As per your screenshot.

It clearly states 8.2 percent year on year on average. These figures haven't been disputed since publication almost 6 years ago. Now a poster on boards disputes industry wide accepted figures, 6 years after the fact because it doesn't suit his argument.

13-09-2018 3:40pm

Nowhere does it claim an 8.2% rent rise in 2012.
Where do you see an 8.2% rent rise in 2012 considering the reports implicitly details (you can work this out yourself by adding 12 numbers and dividing the total by 12)

2011 average = 99.3
2012 average = 100

Year on year, 2012, 8% rise not observed compared to 2011. Do you not understand what year on year means?

Rents went up by 8% in 2013, so the year on year rise from 2012 to 2013 is 8%. the rise didn't occur in 2012, your interpretation of the report is incorrect.

Look at the graph I screenshotted, it shows the situation clearly

You can see falling rents in all but Dublin.

Augeo wrote: »

Not according to the report ...........

Sleeper12 wrote: »

It clearly states 8.2 percent year on year on average. These figures haven't been disputed since publication almost 6 years ago. Now a poster on boards disputes industry wide accepted figures, 6 years after the fact because it doesn't suit his argument.

The report is from 2015?

Sleeper12 · 13-09-2018 3:49pm

Augeo wrote: »

In 2012? Rents were falling back then, not rising.

No they wern't. Rents increased in 2012 as I said. How do I know that?

Augeo wrote: »

Mmmmmm I'll spell it out for you......

December 2011 - 98.9 (2011 average = 99.3)
December 2012 - 100.9, (2012 average = 100)

Yes, yes using your own figures rents did actually increase in 2012 year on year.

Thank you very much

13-09-2018 4:37pm

lol, you've dropped the 8% thing. Progress.
Next step you shall see the falling rents everywhere outside of Dublin

Sleeper12 wrote: »

........ using your own figures .............

they're not my figures but seems as you like them you'll notice there was no 8% rise

Sleeper12 · 13-09-2018 4:41pm

Government warned of housing shortage in 2012

https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/ronald-quinlan-government-told-in-2012-that-housing-shortage-imminent-34555842.html

Sleeper12 · 13-09-2018 4:45pm

Augeo wrote: »

lol, you've dropped the 8% thing. Progress.
Next step you shall see the falling rents everywhere outside of Dublin

they're not my figures but seems as you like them you'll notice there was no 8% rise

But increased in 2012 & not

In 2012? Rents were falling back then, not rising.

It's a good thread & it hasn't been derailed it two years So I'm happy to say we both didn't get either side quite right.

The_Conductor · 13-09-2018 7:02pm

The other issue is the DAFT report- is the asking rates for new tenancies.

1. It is asking prices for *new* tenancies
2. Its not guaranteed that those asking prices were achieved
3. The same report (collaborated by the RTB) shows the average tenancy lengthening to 34 months (a tad under 3 years)- which is a monumental change on even 3-4 years ago.

You can't say rents went up by 8.8% annually in 2017- you have to qualify that the asking price for new tenancies increased by 8.8% in 2017-- and that the average tenancy is now for almost 3 years- so while technically its accurate- its also hiding a multitude of sins- and is extremely misleading- unless you qualify what you are claiming..........

Supplyside issues- need to further ease- and drastically. Dublin is only moderating- because wages have not had a snowballs chance in hell of supporting the continued increases in rates for new tenancies- however given that most sectors don't pay a Dublin premium- its inevitable that the result is general misery for the workforce- who are now on average travelling for 42 minutes longer a day- than they were in 2013 (according to the Dublin Chamber of Commerce).

We critically need a massive rampup in affordable housing in the greater Dublin area- current policies- including those addressing the homeless issue- are myopic and are ignoring the elephant in the corner- which is the increasing misery being experienced by our workforce.

Jamsiek · 14-09-2018 4:05pm

Vanessa Billions Strapless wrote: »

Why should an owner be forced to rent long term.

They shouldn't be "forced" but in many places there are extra taxes for leaving your house empty and now licensing and extra taxes if you want to let your place for less than 30 days.

Vanessa Billions Strapless wrote: »

It’s not private house owners job to house people, their job is to make the most money they can with the least risk.

It's not the owners "job" but the government needs to make it more attractive to do so.

Vanessa Billions Strapless wrote: »

The government should not be interfering in LLs who want to let their properties on Airbnb.

Nonsense. In many places cities are forcing Airbnb owners to license their properties and coming down hard on them if they don't comply.
This needs to happen especially in places where there are housing shortages. Otherwise we would have ghost towns everywhere for much of the year.

A house should be primarily about living in, everything else should be secondary. The government's first responsibility should be to the citizens.

TSQ · 14-09-2018 9:55pm

Sleeper12 wrote: »

It clearly states 8.2 percent year on year on average. These figures haven't been disputed since publication almost 6 years ago. Now a poster on boards disputes industry wide accepted figures, 6 years after the fact because it doesn't suit his argument.

Well, lies, damn lies, and statistics.... I was looking to buy and viewed quite a few central Dublin properties in 2012-2013. If tenants were present I always asked then what rent they were paying. On a number of occasions tenants said they had been paying a higher rent but had negotiated a reduction in the past year. Not one person told me the rent had increased.

Sleeper12 · 15-09-2018 7:17am

TSQ wrote:

Well, lies, damn lies, and statistics.... I was looking to buy and viewed quite a few central Dublin properties in 2012-2013. If tenants were present I always asked then what rent they were paying. On a number of occasions tenants said they had been paying a higher rent but had negotiated a reduction in the past year. Not one person told me the rent had increased.

If you read back you will see that I read the daft report incorrectly. Rents did increase year on the but not 8.2 percent. Although the report didn't go in detail you could have had certain areas with a 5 or 10 percent increase & other with a 5 or 10 percent decrease to balance this out. Rents did increase in 2012. Not by 8.2 percent though

4ensic15 · 15-09-2018 9:53am

TSQ wrote: »

Well, lies, damn lies, and statistics.... I was looking to buy and viewed quite a few central Dublin properties in 2012-2013. If tenants were present I always asked then what rent they were paying. On a number of occasions tenants said they had been paying a higher rent but had negotiated a reduction in the past year. Not one person told me the rent had increased.

That wouldn't give any indication as to whether or not rents had increased. You were not looking at properties where anyone had recently moved in. A landlord intending to sell wouldn't be increasing the rent before going on the market. As for reductions they would have been agreed because the market had previously fallen and the landlord didn't want the hassle and expense of re-letting the property which they were going to sell any way.

GGTrek · 15-09-2018 11:27am

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

Sleeper12 wrote: »

Had they put the billion plus wasted on Irish water in 5 or 6 years ago we might not have any housing shortage at all by now.

Just for fun I googled news from 2012 and this came up first.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/more-than-50-000-irish-emigrated-during-2012-1.1509489

"The number of people emigrating from Ireland continues to rise as 89,000 people left the State in the year to April, an increase of 2.2 per cent on the previous 12 months.

Figures published today by the Central Statistics Office show 50,900 Irish people emigrated in the period, up from 46,500 last year.

This brings the total number of Irish people who have emigrated since 2008 to 200,600."

Nobody cared about housing back then, and nobody has a crystal ball to see the future.

I remember very well that time because I bought at that time. Landlords were going bust and the govvie was as usual screwing landlords with all extra taxes USC, Property tax, increased income tax, tax reliefs cuts on mortgage interest, high building standards, new tenant reg standards (that caused the shutting down of most bedsits), most landlords could not sustain it because they had high leverage and no capital. The tenants are now screaming, well I remember well they could not care less at the time, both tenants and the govvie had the childish belief that rent could stay low long term with a massive increase in costs to landlords caused by your very own Irish govvie which in addition through absurd building and rental regulations further restricted the building of residential property.

19-09-2018 11:53am

12,000 AirBnB hosts. Imagine if even 10% were houses/apartments suitable for families. That would go some way towards easing the housing situation. (I’m allowing 4 people per homeless family for ease) Almost half the “homeless” sorted.

19-09-2018 12:26pm

Deleted User wrote: »

12,000 AirBnB hosts. Imagine if even 10% were houses/apartments suitable for families. That would go some way towards easing the housing situation. (I’m allowing 4 people per homeless family for ease) Almost half the “homeless” sorted.

You can’t make a statement like that as it’s simply nonsense. For a start most of the Airbnb apartments will be high quality lets which would be unaffordable or wouldn’t be let to those on welfare.

Hitman3000 · 19-09-2018 12:29pm

Deleted User wrote:

12,000 AirBnB hosts. Imagine if even 10% were houses/apartments suitable for families. That would go some way towards easing the housing situation. (Iâ€™m allowing 4 people per homeless family for ease) Almost half the â€œhomelessâ€ sorted.

Why do you think owners of these properties prefer Air BnB? To say your post is delusional would be kind.

pwurple · 19-09-2018 1:45pm

Deleted User wrote: »

12,000 AirBnB hosts. Imagine if even 10% were houses/apartments suitable for families. That would go some way towards easing the housing situation. (I’m allowing 4 people per homeless family for ease) Almost half the “homeless” sorted.

O rlly?
I'm one of those thousands of air B&B hosts. I let a couple of bedrooms out in my place when we're away. You know, like on holiday.
How on earth would that ease any housing situation? It's tourism.
Air B&B isn't the new devil at all lads.

The Specialist · 19-09-2018 1:51pm

pwurple wrote: »

O rlly?
I'm one of those thousands of air B&B hosts. I let a couple of bedrooms out in my place when we're away. You know, like on holiday.
How on earth would that ease any housing situation? It's tourism.
Air B&B isn't the new devil at all lads.

Sure don't you know that even owning a property these days makes you satan incarnate? It's not trendy to get off your arse and work for anything in the current climate - everything must be given for free to everyone.

This "homeless" crisis is only a scam anyway, we don't have 10000 people living on the streets. We have a broken welfare system which pays far too much to complete and utter wasters, a "homeless" list which is essentially people gaming their way to a free house and the media & lefty TD's feeding this bull**** sense of entitlement to something for nothing.

Hitman3000 · 19-09-2018 2:01pm

pwurple wrote:

O rlly? I'm one of those thousands of air B&B hosts. I let a couple of bedrooms out in my place when we're away. You know, like on holiday. How on earth would that ease any housing situation? It's tourism. Air B&B isn't the new devil at all lads.

Ye guys are the scapegoats for the lack of housing don't you know.

19-09-2018 3:23pm

Vanessa Billions Strapless wrote: »

You can’t make a statement like that as it’s simply nonsense. For a start most of the Airbnb apartments will be high quality lets which would be unaffordable or wouldn’t be let to those on welfare.

There are plenty looking for somewhere to live other than welfare recipients! As I said even if 10% were freed up for rent, the knock on effect would reap huge rewards.

Eric Cartman · 19-09-2018 3:32pm

The Specialist wrote: »

Sure don't you know that even owning a property these days makes you satan incarnate? It's not trendy to get off your arse and work for anything in the current climate - everything must be given for free to everyone.

This "homeless" crisis is only a scam anyway, we don't have 10000 people living on the streets. We have a broken welfare system which pays far too much to complete and utter wasters, a "homeless" list which is essentially people gaming their way to a free house and the media & lefty TD's feeding this bull**** sense of entitlement to something for nothing.

bingo.

There are less than 200 rough sleepers out every night, and they are all there because they won't take dry beds, drink and drugs are more appealing than a matress.

The 'homeless' net has expanded so far because they define everyone who isnt in a mortgaged house with payments fully up to date as homeless or at severe risk of homelessness.

Homeless services are interested in making a big deal of this because it gets them more money.
unemployed people and college students are interested in making a big deal of this because they all think theres a free house on the cards.
banks / estate agents are all interested in making a big deal out of this in the hope the 3.5 times central bank rules vanish so we can bubble again.

the only people who are afraid of this is the people who work, because we know that no matter what the answer is , its going to hurt us in the pay packet.

Slydice · 27-09-2018 10:56pm

The August figures have been released:
https://www.housing.gov.ie/sites/default/files/publications/files/homeless_report_-_august_2018.pdf

The Department also released a note: Categorisation of Emergency Accommodation in Monthly Homeless Reports
https://www.housing.gov.ie/sites/default/files/publications/files/categorisation_of_emergency_accommodation.pdf

During the compilation of the February homeless report, the Department held discussions with a number of local authorities following higher than expected increases in the numbers of families accessing emergency accommodation.

Following discussions with a number of local authorities, these authorities amended the reports for the subsequent reports

The Homelessness numbers which now include these amendments have reduced. I've updated the two charts based on the totals they give.

Homelessness (Adults)

Family Homelessness

The latest report does not have commentary where previous reports did. They used to include:

The long term solution to the current homeless issue is to increase the supply of homes

or:

The root cause of increased homelessness is the supply shortage across the housing sector, which in turn is a result of the recent economic collapse and the associated damage to the construction sector. Accordingly the long-term solution to the current homeless issue is to increase the supply of homes.

Coverage of this report:
Over 1,600 removed from homeless figures in ‘recategorisation’ exercise
Department of Housing accused of manipulating figures to stay below 10,000 threshold
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/over-1-600-removed-from-homeless-figures-in-recategorisation-exercise-1.3643824

Charities hit out at 'disingenuous' re-categorisation of homeless figures
https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/charities-hit-out-at-disingenuous-re-categorisation-of-homeless-figures-871981.html

They were taken out of the statistics at the request of the Minister who blamed "categorisation errors".

According to the latest figures out today, 9,527 people, including almost 3,700 children, were temporarily living in hotels and B&Bs in August.

Mr Murphy has been accused of wanting to keep numbers listed as living in emergency accommodation below 10,000.

Without the re-categorisation, the number of people temporarily living in hotels and B&Bs last month would have stood at 11,133.

Homeless figures remain below 10,000 ... but government says more categorisation issues identified
https://www.thejournal.ie/homeless-figures-august-2-4257437-Sep2018/

Tweets:
https://twitter.com/Barnardos_IRL/status/1045348764653957120

However the charity wishes to highlight that the drop comes alongside the announcement by the Minister that there has been a significant re-categorisation of a number of families who were previously deemed as living in emergency accommodation.

https://twitter.com/MyNameCampaign/status/1045358703254401026
https://twitter.com/FocusIreland/status/1045334541236412417

The absence of details suggests that the reported drop of 364 from the number homeless in July appears to be largely due to yet another re-categorisation of who is homeless.

https://twitter.com/SimonCommunity/status/1045312876385382400
https://twitter.com/ICHHDUBLIN/status/1045419458104299520
https://twitter.com/MerchantsQuayIR/status/1045345541067026440

Other recent media on homelessness and supply shortage in Ireland:
ICCH: No. Of People Sleeping Rough In Dublin Hits 179.
https://kfmradio.com/news/19092018-1653/icch-no-people-sleeping-rough-dublin-hits-179

The number of people sleeping on the streets of Dublin has reached its highest level so far this year.

Teams from Inner City Helping Homeless are calling for more emergency beds to be made available, after they counted 179 rough sleepers last night.

Anthony Flynn from the group says homeless people will need more shelter offered to them as the weather worsens

ESRI: No end in sight to rent and house price spiral
https://www.independent.ie/business/esri-no-end-in-sight-to-rent-and-house-price-spiral-37355455.html

It warns housing costs currently pose a significant challenge to domestic competitiveness for Ireland.

Supply is still well below demand and falling unemployment, wage growth and inward migration are all set to drive prices higher, it said.

Latest figures show 7.6% increase in rents nationally
https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/0927/998335-rent_index/

The figures are contained in the latest rent index from the Residential Tenancies Board.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, rental price inflation increased 3.4% between April and June of this year.

That is up from 2.7% over the same period a year ago.

Students protest over price of apartments
https://www.eveningecho.ie/corknews/Students-protest-over-price-of-apartments-fd645bc0-01ba-4831-b71b-71ec1447e01b-ds

c montgomery · 27-09-2018 10:59pm

Eric Cartman wrote: »

bingo.

There are less than 200 rough sleepers out every night, and they are all there because they won't take dry beds, drink and drugs are more appealing than a matress.

The 'homeless' net has expanded so far because they define everyone who isnt in a mortgaged house with payments fully up to date as homeless or at severe risk of homelessness.

Homeless services are interested in making a big deal of this because it gets them more money.
unemployed people and college students are interested in making a big deal of this because they all think theres a free house on the cards.
banks / estate agents are all interested in making a big deal out of this in the hope the 3.5 times central bank rules vanish so we can bubble again.

the only people who are afraid of this is the people who work, because we know that no matter what the answer is , its going to hurt us in the pay packet.

Well said

doolox · 27-09-2018 11:21pm

There are people here who would "truly hammer" the landlords for not wanting to let their houses to people who may not be able to pay the rent in times to come.

People who are being denied the right to chose who they let their house to.

Any wonder most single house landlords are giving up and getting out of letting houses when the general public opinion is so skewed against them.

Good luck to Irish tenants when faced with the new reality of dealing with owners with many 100's if not 1000's of housing units. These companies will be able to afford top quality legal advice and procedures from which the average tenant will have little or no defence.

They will be able to rely on 90% of their tenants being compliant and paying on time to fund the legal actions taken against the non-compliant 10% who delay or hold back on paying their rents. Something a single house owner and renter cannot do.

Good luck with trying to battle for rights against an entity as big as Tesco, Ryanair or a pillar bank, they are simply too big to fight.

When all the so-called amateur landlords are gone from the market the tenants will face an expert and very well equipped coterie of big property owners who will hire a very focused and expert group of enforcers who will have any non-compliant tenants on the road in no time.

The only tiny glimmer of hope is if the tenants can form a union to represent their cases in court to act as a counterbalance to the expertise and legal muscle which the newly formed big property owners will be able to afford. This will cost a large percentage of their already high rents, many will not be able to afford this extra cost.

Sleeper12 · 28-09-2018 8:40am

Eric Cartman wrote: »

bingo.

There are less than 200 rough sleepers out every night, and they are all there because they won't take dry beds, drink and drugs are more appealing than a matress.

The 'homeless' net has expanded so far because they define everyone who isnt in a mortgaged house with payments fully up to date as homeless or at severe risk of homelessness.

Homeless services are interested in making a big deal of this because it gets them more money.
unemployed people and college students are interested in making a big deal of this because they all think theres a free house on the cards.
banks / estate agents are all interested in making a big deal out of this in the hope the 3.5 times central bank rules vanish so we can bubble again.

the only people who are afraid of this is the people who work, because we know that no matter what the answer is , its going to hurt us in the pay packet.

They haven't expanded the net in decades. Up until April they calculated homeless people in the same way as the 70s, 80s 90s 0s. The only thing that has changed is the numbers as more & more people became homeless under FGs rule.

Since April the government has been manipulating the figures in a ridiculous attempt to make the figures below 10K when they broke that number months ago.

You mightn't be happy with how we have ALWAYS calculated the homeless figures & you are entitled to feel that way but its totally false to claim The 'homeless' net has expanded.

28-09-2018 8:47am

It’s great to see a decline in the numbers. It shows that efforts to deal with the situation are working. Hundreds of people are only too glad of a place to call home. We don’t hear about them in the media. If their windows are draughty, they sort them themselves without taking to social media.

I’ve said before and I think it’s worth repeating. Homeless charities are business’. Without the homeless their well paid workers would have to seek employment elsewhere.

Old diesel · 28-09-2018 9:03am

Sleeper12 wrote: »

They haven't expanded the net in decades. Up until April they calculated homeless people in the same way as the 70s, 80s 90s 0s. The only thing that has changed is the numbers as more & more people became homeless under FGs rule.

Since April the government has been manipulating the figures in a ridiculous attempt to make the figures below 10K when they broke that number months ago.

You mightn't be happy with how we have ALWAYS calculated the homeless figures & you are entitled to feel that way but its totally false to claim The 'homeless' net has expanded.

Spot on re the manipulation of figures to stay under 10 k.

I've seen it reported that some of the reclassified families in Limerick from earlier in the year are in a family Hub.

The other thing that stands out for me is that the minister talks of people (who are reclassified) living in properties owned or leased by Local authorities funded by section 10.

I've only ever heard this idea mentioned when the figures are reclassified to stay under 10 k.

If all was above board then I'd expect to see a wider annuncement of a plan because using normal homes as emergency accommodation looks great and should be far superior and much cheaper then hotels etc.

Unless of course they are using Air bnb properties or really short leases.

Hitman3000 · 28-09-2018 9:09am

Deleted User wrote:

Itâ€™s great to see a decline in the numbers. It shows that efforts to deal with the situation are working. Hundreds of people are only too glad of a place to call home. We donâ€™t hear about them in the media. If their windows are draughty, they sort them themselves without taking to social media.

It's easy to see a decline when the Minister decides to use his own system without explaining to anyone how is arriving at his figures. Genuine question but do you believe everything from the mouth of a politician or is it just FG politicians. I listened to morning Ireland on the way to work . The head of advocacy in Focus Ireland along with others are confused at how Minister Murphy is getting his figures. Maybe you know ?

28-09-2018 9:11am

Hitman3000 wrote: »

It's easy to see a decline when the Minister decides to use his own system without explaining to anyone how is arriving at his figures. Genuine question but do you believe everything from the mouth of a politician or is it just FG politicians. I listened to morning Ireland on the way to work . The head of advocacy in Focus Ireland along with others are confused at how Minister Murphy is getting his figures. Maybe you know ?

dont you advocate for the 10k figure?

Hitman3000 · 28-09-2018 9:12am

Not that I'm aware of. There is vested interests on both sides. The homeless organisations are using agreed metrics to arrive at their figures, the Minister has seemed to diverted off to arrive at his own figures without explanation or as said on Morning Ireland without transparency.

28-09-2018 9:14am

Hitman3000 wrote: »

It's easy to see a decline when the Minister decides to use his own system without explaining to anyone how is arriving at his figures. Genuine question but do you believe everything from the mouth of a politician or is it just FG politicians. I listened to morning Ireland on the way to work . The head of advocacy in Focus Ireland along with others are confused at how Minister Murphy is getting his figures. Maybe you know ?

Focus Ireland and other homeless groups need the homeless to justify their existence. Imagine if all the millions given to them by the Government every year was used to build homes instead. Now, there’s an idea.

Homelessness on the rise

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