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Strong Winds for Munster, Connacht and Leinster : PM 17th/AM 18th, Jan 2018

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  • Options
    #62
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Meteorite58 wrote: »
    18Z GFS continues to show a fast moving system and not as strong as previous runs .

    Yes, not as strong for us, but look how it seemingly intensifies as it's leaves the east coast of England.


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    #63
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,817 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Yea not as strong on latest runs including the ARPEGE but still packing a punch, at the moment anyway. Latest run showing gusts 100 - 110km/h overland, maybe touching 120km//h in places but the trend has been correcting to less severe winds over us before strengthening over the UK and into Holland.

    tempresult_jpl1.gif

    tempresult_xov4.gif


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    #64
    piplip87
    Registered Users Posts: 2,102 ✭✭✭piplip87


    Total newbie here, what are the chance this brings snow with it


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    #65
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    piplip87 wrote: »
    Total newbie here, what are the chance this brings snow with it


    Snow potential in Ulster as it remains in colder air, rain for the rest of the country, the storm is trending towards an non event currently but could change,if the storm tracks further south,places further south of Ulster could experience snow.


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    #66
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,817 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    piplip87 wrote: »
    Total newbie here, what are the chance this brings snow with it


    No chance south of the center I would think as the lower and upper temps rise as the system passes. Better chance of snow in Northern counties for a time where the moisture runs into cold air.


    tempresult_lxb7.gif


    tempresult_jym8.gif

    tempresult_ykn1.gif


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    #67
    piplip87
    Registered Users Posts: 2,102 ✭✭✭piplip87


    Thank you,

    A shift of 50 miles south should see me in the white stuff then


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    #68
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    18z RGEM shows the low 983 mbs at 54N 15W at 18z Wed, this is as far as the model goes and on its grid boundary. But it does deepen from 1002 mbs at 06z (30W), which is a fairly sharp pressure drop, so I think we need to be careful to distinguish central pressure from the more significant pressure tendency.

    At the rate this is dropping south each model run, we may get some more surprises before event time.


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    #69
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,878 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Didnt that Elanor deepen fast before wrecking havoc


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    #70
    gozunda
    Registered Users Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    Winds starting to increase here now - just woken by strong and very noisy gusts ....

    130 m asl
    North Cork / Limerick Tipperary border


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    #71
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Yes there's going to be some very strong gusts today unassociated with the storm we're tracking for late Wednesday, it's not even past the eastern end of Nova Scotia yet.

    But as far as the 00z guidance is concerned, almost every model looks virtually the same, 980 mb low around Donegal Bay deepening across Ireland and Britain to the 970s, some depictions make it appear as though Dublin could get a brief blast of strong winds from the west with the cold front of this fast-moving system.

    Right now I would describe it as a mid-range level 2 sort of event but the fast jet stream and forward motion on this are keeping us very vigilant for any last minute ramping up, have the feeling that like Pauldry was saying, some place could feel the sting of this one. I am not as confident as the models right now about this track, it could change, in part because this system has no real organization to it yet, but it looks like a lot of energy is available to it, once it decides where to organize it.

    Really, not trying to dodge the question but this is more of a nowcast than many events, I wouldn't want anyone to write it off based on any model they see before Wednesday morning really.


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    #72
    _Whimsical_
    Registered Users Posts: 7,955 ✭✭✭_Whimsical_


    There are some heavy gusts in galway city right now.


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    #73
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,817 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Looks to be holding it's track and intesity more or less for now , the last few runs quite similar. Looks quite windy and stormy on coastal counties perhaps.


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    #74
    galwaybabe
    Registered Users Posts: 1,062 ✭✭✭galwaybabe


    Should folk in Galway and Kinvara be worried about similar levels of flooding as the last storm? We got absolutely inundated with water!


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    #75
    km79
    Registered Users Posts: 48,132 ✭✭✭✭km79


    galwaybabe wrote: »
    Should folk in Galway and Kinvara be worried about similar levels of flooding as the last storm? We got absolutely inundated with water!

    http://m.met.ie/weather-warnings.aspx?t=National

    Yellow warning for high sea waters and coastal flooding


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    #76
    Soccarboy11
    Registered Users Posts: 579 ✭✭✭Soccarboy11


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Yes but it's for tonight, not Wednesday night, I just noticed.

    It's in the same time.period as the other yellow wind alert it seems, so are they expecting this to be the storm via their own models possibly? I doubt it's something else


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    #77
    Treepole
    Registered Users Posts: 486 ✭✭Treepole


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    STATUS ORANGE

    Wind Warning for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork and Kerry
    This evening and for a time tonight, storm Fionn will bring very strong westerly winds to Atlantic coastal counties with mean wind speeds of 65 to 80 km/h and gusts of up to 120 km/hr, strongest near coasts with a risk of flooding.

    Issued:Tuesday 16 January 2018 10:00
    Valid:Tuesday 16 January 2018 15:00 to Wednesday 17 January 2018 03:00

    This is a different event to the one that has been tracked on this thread is it not?
    That warning expires at 3am tonight.


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    #78
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Treepole wrote: »
    This is a different event to the one that has been tracked on this thread is it not?
    That warning expires at 3am tonight.

    Read the above comments and the mods just edited the thread to Storm Fionn.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #79
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Is the time line in that Orange warning wrong?


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    #80
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Villain wrote: »
    Is the time line in that Orange warning wrong?

    That's what Met Éireann put it down as, I was confused myself once I read the valid timeline:

    http://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/default.asp

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #81
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Villain wrote: »
    Is the time line in that Orange warning wrong?

    I don't think so looking at ventusky and predicted wind gusts. Looks like a coastal wind event for the most part.


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    #82
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭typhoony


    lol, so this thread has been up for 5 days signalling an event a day later and then out of the blue we get a warning for this evening that no-one seems to have noticed.


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    #83
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    So we are looking at Georgina then for tomorrow night, seems odd warning to me.


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    #84
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,701 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    I did the thread edit....

    I was expecting a storm tomorrow evening/night?

    I'm confused....:confused:

    Are we now expecting a storm this evening/tonight and another one tomorrow evening/night???


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    #85
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    I did the thread edit....

    I was expecting a storm tomorrow evening/night?

    I'm confused....:confused:

    Are we now expecting a storm this evening/tonight and another one tomorrow evening/night???

    Met Eireann are seeing it that way.


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    #86
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,701 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Villain wrote: »
    Met Eireann are seeing it that way.

    Would appear so?

    I will re-edit thread title so.


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    #87
    Soccarboy11
    Registered Users Posts: 579 ✭✭✭Soccarboy11


    Looking at the Windy app, it still shows a storm hitting tomorrow going across galway / mayo and out the Dublin side which is what we were tracking.

    There looks to be wind and gusts today off the Atlantic but I didn't expect it to be named as a storm. So it's possible we could have georgina tomorrow


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    #88
    Treepole
    Registered Users Posts: 486 ✭✭Treepole


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    I did the thread edit....

    I was expecting a storm tomorrow evening/night?

    I'm confused....:confused:

    Are we now expecting a storm this evening/tonight and another one tomorrow evening/night???

    The event that was being discussed and tracked here doesn't ramp up until tomorrow evening.

    The warning issued just now relates to some strong gusts this evening.


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    #89
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    I did the thread edit....

    I was expecting a storm tomorrow evening/night?

    I'm confused....:confused:

    Are we now expecting a storm this evening/tonight and another one tomorrow evening/night???

    Yes there are two wind events. One tonight and one tomorrow(which is still up for debate as to who will be worst affected). Tonight though seems orange for coastal areas only.


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    #90
    Elmer Blooker
    Registered Users Posts: 6,035 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    Soccarboy11 wrote: »
    Storm fionn, so we have a name then!
    Its looking like northern Europe will bear the brunt of this storm.
    I think our Euro friends might have difficulties trying to pronounce "Fionn"

    62943009


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    #91
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Elmer Blooker wrote: »
    Its looking like northern Europe will bear the brunt of this storm.
    I think our Euro friends might have difficulties trying to pronounce "Fionn"

    62943009

    That's not Fionn though, according to Met Éireann.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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