Severe Wind Storm late 26th-27th December

leahyl wrote: »

The last serious storm I remember was Christmas Eve 1997 (I think?) - it was unbelievable - remember going into the church in Wilton and the big stained glass window behind the altar was blown in and branches from trees sticking through it!!

That storm was a once in a lifetime event
I'll never forget being out driving and see trees fall like dominos

Maybe the 12Z GEM is overdoing it, but I'm seeing 40 and 45 knot wind barbs over land in the east here.

Would recommend extra club, anyway.

Seriously, yes, rethink anything that involves being outside after dark tomorrow to about sunset Friday.

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Would recommend extra club, anyway.

Seriously, yes, rethink anything that involves being outside after dark tomorrow to about sunset Friday.

Thats grand we'll all be in the pub.

thought last storm would give a gust of 75 knots and 70 in Sligo

It did 69 and 48 in Sligo so nothing major

This one I think will get the 75 or 78 in Mace

Sligo will get 45 or 50

May not be as strong as the wednesday storm of 2 storms ago but one to watch

Definite power outages, fallen branches and flooding so travellers after dark tomorrow are in serious danger

Do I read a slight downgrade on the Met Eireann forecast?

I could have sworn that earlier there were 80km/hr winds shown on the map. Perhaps I'm mistaken.

Not seeing any downgrades on GFS or GME or RGEM (GEM global not updated yet).

Sometimes a shift change can bring about a change in forecast philosophy in a static situation -- I think this looks very ominous and would personally go level 3 and red alert, certainly for west and south including inland locations not well shielded from a southwest wind. Dublin will be windy enough too. Going to hold off on estimates until I see certain model products that haven't updated yet. The actual location and intensity appear to be on track as earlier discussed.

I think the models would be starting to pick up on a northward correction by now, there simply isn't any sign of variation and the track seems to be just about worst case scenario for damaging winds across most exposed locations although not so much north Donegal as the low is heading almost directly for a landfall in the vicinity of Malin Head then on into southern central Scotland.

This past low with its extraordinary central pressure may be tilting expectations slightly, as in "this one is 15-20 mbs less intense" but in fact the gradient is considerably stronger looking on all models and there is a very tight 500 mb gradient.

I've seen the GEM at source which has not been displayed yet on other websites, and it is loaded. The UKMO has not changed. So unless the ECM does a complete reversal, I can't find any scientific evidence to go to any other conclusion than historic storm with very damaging winds. Possible gusts to 150-160 km/hr in most exposed locations, or 95-100 knots. This is partly derived from estimated 130 knot 500 mb speeds, and considerations of forward motion of storm (faster than most) and surface gradient plus development which is also exactly what one looks for in a severe windstorm, fast development of a wrap-around cutting under the warm sector which is also about as strong as we could expect to see in late December.

The storm lacks nothing but if a downgrade comes anyway and invalidates the model output, can't see how we can anticipate that given the situation. Nor should anyone base a forecast on that expectation. No harm in prayer but as a believer myself I happen to recall that various people were saying that would save them from the near-certain forecast of destruction with Haiyan in November and that of course proved illusory. I hope people take this one very seriously because it sure appears capable of doing serious damage, but in particular to anyone out on the roads so that part can be avoided. So can certain types of property damage. You can decide before mid-afternoon where to park vehicles, for example, with hurricane force SW to W gusts in mind. Where can they do damage around your property? What direction would that travel? That might assist you to park vehicles in safest possible locations and avoid having a tree branch or entire tree or roof material hitting your car or van. Any movable loose objects that a 100-mph wind gust could lift and move should be stored out of harm's way during daylight today.

Or you can wait and see, then go out into the storm and try to move stuff then. If I'm wrong, you're just going to get some valuable exercise anyway.

People in isolated and exposed locations in the west and south should probably think about finding a safer shelter with friends or relatives. This could be the strongest wind in many years for some parts of the southwest. I would also be very concerned about locations near Galway Bay which seems to be perfectly aligned to the strongest winds likely to develop in this storm.

Timing appears to be something like this: winds becoming noticeably strong mid-afternoon west and south, gale force 7-9 p.m., storm force towards midnight and most of the night, continuing on that way to about noon, then back down to gale force afternoon, less active by Friday evening.

Dublin (and most of central Leinster) may not be in the worst position but could still see minor damaging gusts in the 120 km/hr range and those would be most likely to develop late in the night and through the day.

I'll see what the other experienced guys think when they come in, but this is my take after reviewing the map guidance. The key element is the very strong jet stream. I can't recall a stronger phasing of deep low and jet stream over Ireland and it matches some very strong cases I have seen in North America in autumn, winter or spring storms. The 500-mb wind rarely exceeds 120 knots and seems likely to do so during this storm.

ECM folllows the others
No time for any significant downgrades now as its almost upon.
Its a borderline red alert

The GFS ops appears to be somewhat weaker than the average of 20 solutions and looking at all of those, I could only spot two or three that would qualify as downgrades even marginally speaking. The mean of the 20 is close to 5 mb lower than the ops. Track is very similar to 12-26-1998. As JS suggests, level 3 west and south, level 2 east, parts of north. Malin Head may be the least windy place in the country at times, other than very sheltered locations. The centre of the low may never make a landfall but it's no more than 20-30 miles off Belmullet then Malin Head on its way to Tiree.

I would give 90 kts for Mace Head and 75 kts Valentia, Sherkin and Roche Pt also Galway City, 67 kt Cork, 60 kt Shannon and Athenry, 64 kts Waterford, 62 kt Casement, 65 kt Dublin, 72 kt Belmullet (higher if any northward drift on track), 62 kt Finner and 58 kt Knock as max gusts for those locations. Gusts over 60 kts widely in central inland counties.

MAQ/Ian/MT I saw that you alluded to this storm being very similar to the 1998 Stephens day storm but MT also said it would be very mild..so there wont be any chance of snow with this one? I remember we had 2days of power outage with the 98 storm and 6inches if snow in Mayo.

Morning all.

Am I right in thinking that South Donegal is unlikely to experience anything out of the norm this evening?

Do hope all of you in the S and SW don't suffer any major damage or loss of electricity etc.