This Week's Storms - FORECAST, MODEL DISCUSSION ONLY

pauldry · 11-12-2011 12:28am

both storms will miss us or fill.

im drunk but when im drunk im honest.

no snow either except maybe a couple of days in january.

weather be damned.

10xguinness was the wrong choice blrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

up for anything · 11-12-2011 12:31am

pauldry wrote: »

both storms will miss us or fill.

im drunk but when im drunk im honest.

no snow either except maybe a couple of days in january.

weather be damned.

10xguinness was the wrong choice blrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

Are you always such a miserable drunk pissing on other people's parades? Somebody must have been slipping gin in your guinness.

:D

km79 · 11-12-2011 12:31am

pauldry wrote: »

both storms will miss us or fill.

im drunk but when im drunk im honest.

no snow either except maybe a couple of days in january.

weather be damned.

10xguinness was the wrong choice blrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

LOL I'm drunk too and we posting o weather forums

pauldry · 11-12-2011 12:31am

heres the honest drunkmans predicitions

monday/tuesday storm 1(name : storm hopskipandaleap)

Belmullet 65knots
Malin 64knots
Mace 60knots

friday

Belmullet 71knots
Malin 68knots
Mace 64knots

Damage but no cigar(any guinness?)

H2UMrsRobinson · 11-12-2011 12:32am

pauldry wrote: »

both storms will miss us or fill.

im drunk but when im drunk im honest.

no snow either except maybe a couple of days in january.

weather be damned.

10xguinness was the wrong choice blrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

ahh you're where I was last night...except i was convinced that the apocolypse was upon us and warned the entire pub, much to their hilarity !

pauldry · 11-12-2011 12:32am

up for anything wrote: »

Are you always such a miserable drunk pissing on other people's parades? Somebody must have been slipping gin in your guinness. :D

no bacardi - worse calms all storms

pauldry · 11-12-2011 12:32am

H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »

ahh you're where I was last night...except i was convinced that the apocolypse was upon us and warned the entire pub, much to their hilarity !

oh pub apolcalypses

i love those

pauldry · 11-12-2011 12:33am

km79 wrote: »

LOL I'm drunk too and we posting o weather forums

is there a guinness forum i need another can

ninebeanrows · 11-12-2011 12:36am

lads its 1130, this is the type of chat i would expect to see at 230! l:D

H2UMrsRobinson · 11-12-2011 12:39am

Weathercheck wrote: »

lads its 1130, this is the type of chat i would expect to see at 230! l:D

But theres weather afoot and I think Pauldry's been playing that well known weather forum drinking game where you have to take a swig every time you hit the F5 key

greysides · 11-12-2011 12:47am

Weathercheck wrote: »

lads its 1130, this is the type of chat i would expect to see at 230! l:D

Didn't you hear..............?

The end of the world is upon us....................

pauldry · 11-12-2011 12:53am

ok then seriously

the storm on tuesday will be nothing to write home about but the one on friday will be a bit stronger.

last week we had lots of hailstones in sligo and next week we will too by the looks of it.

pauldry · 11-12-2011 12:55am

also and this is my last post for a while in case i get thrown out for posting too much the period after the storms looks well boring. High pressure and meh like November

Wild Bill · 11-12-2011 1:00am

Well, I can't argue about those models and charts 'cos I'm an ignoramus.

But I judge the severity of storms by the amount of forest they destroy.

By this measure we had, in the past 50 years -
* Hurricane Debbie in 1963 (affecting the West, Galway/Mayo most)
* a storm in January 1973 (affecting the East most)
* one on Christmas Eve 1997 (especially severe in Munster and Leinster)
* St Stephen's Day 1998 (worst in the Northwest/Donegal)

I will measure next week's efforts by the number of trees flattened. :cool:

delw · 11-12-2011 1:14am

next Friday's storm while impressive to see coming at Ireland will be downgraded & or move northerly,thats just my untrained opinion
Really impressive too see thought :eek:

Wild Bill · 11-12-2011 1:17am

This is my measure of windiness :eek:

Vizual Pics · 11-12-2011 1:18am

Interesting to see this animation and how small we are in the overall global weather systems and weather prediction...Such a vast ocean in front of us that can change things in the space of hours...Tuesday and Thursday's strorms show up and especially Thursdays but again its only a fleeting glimpse of how small these things are in the scheme of things...http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=windbarb&level=10m&tz=UTC&area=G&model=G

The Westerner · 11-12-2011 1:20am

Weathercheck wrote: »

a 915mb storm

The "Braer Storm" of January 1993 being one such example. Estimated to have dipped to as low as 914mb on January 10th. Wiki article.

Image attached, 10 Jan 1993:

maquiladora · 11-12-2011 1:29am

The Westerner wrote: »

The "Braer Storm" of January 1993 being one such example. Estimated to have dipped to as low as 914mb on January 10th. Wiki article.

Image attached, 10 Jan 1993:

cherryghost · 11-12-2011 1:33am

Man its been almost a year since I've been this excited about a possibly historic weather system. Ensembles are all looking pretty solid at the mo. Some suggesting we'll get a few hours of heavy snow at the forefront of it too.

seanknowsall · 11-12-2011 1:40am

I have a favour to ask someone who may be in the know... how do I watch archived forecasts on rte? I have trawled the rte website but cannot find a link. I would really appreciate help.....

Redsunset · 11-12-2011 1:51am

The Extreme Forecast Index

The Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) was developed at ECMWF as a tool to provide forecasters with general guidance on potential extreme events. The EFI summarises the information in the EPS in a simple map that can be used by forecasters as an “alarm bell” for a potential severe weather event. The map highlights places where the current forecast is indicating a significantly increased risk of a severe weather event. The EFI does this by comparing the current EPS forecast with a large set of EPS forecasts run over previous years (the model climate).

If the current forecast shows a much larger probability than usual for a severe weather event to occur then the EFI will be high and awill be indicated on the map. If the EFI indicates a potential severe
weather event, the forecaster can then examine more detailed information from the forecast to make a more thorough assessment of the risk to their customers.

A very interesting read,

http://ecmwf.int/about/corporate_brochure/leaflets/Severe-weather-2011.pdf

thetonynator · 11-12-2011 1:57am

seanknowsall wrote: »

I have a favour to ask someone who may be in the know... how do I watch archived forecasts on rte? I have trawled the rte website but cannot find a link. I would really appreciate help.....

I'm not aware of anything further back than the 1 week available on the RTE player.

Sponge Bob · 11-12-2011 2:49am

Ye are such girls, Mon/Tue will be a Mehhhh! like I said days ago

Feckin thread is all OMG OMG OMG crap.

Pangea · 11-12-2011 3:11am

If tuesdays storm has been downgraded to an average event after looking so promising then I suspect the same might happen for Fridays Storm.
(OMG Im beginning to sound like nacho! :eek: :pac:)

Mullaghteelin · 11-12-2011 3:46am

maquiladora wrote: »

Storm 2 on the 18Z GFS is the most serious storm I've ever seen on the GFS for Ireland that hasnt been in FI in the last 6 years or so that I've been watching the models.

South, west, east, north. Nobody escapes.

Netweather Extra is showing 92+mph gusts on the east coast at 123 hours, thats as high as the scale goes.

The winds over Dublin at 9pm Thursday at the 850hpa level, an altitude of roughly 1000m, peak at 216km/h. (135mph)
The highest summits in Wicklow are not much below that height!
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample_C.shtml?text=EIDW/
Over 100mph sustained seems likely for the very highest ground for a time if that comes off, or the equivalent of a Cat2, even Cat3 hurricane!

I have never seen a non-tropical low pressure on any chart at any timeframe as intense and as compact as Thursday night's storm in tonight's 18z GFS... with the isobars so closely packed on the wetterzentrale charts as to merge into one big blob of white.... and I've an extra few years of obsessive model watching under my belt.

M.T. Cranium · 11-12-2011 4:32am

The 00z RGEM runs to 48h, looks like an upgrade rather than continuing the 18z GFS line. Showing a strong gradient at 15W on the edge of their grid and a 948 mb low at 57N 18W.

Back in a while.

M.T. Cranium · 11-12-2011 5:33am

From 00z GFS run, first storm increasingly front-loaded which means that for east and south coasts the strongest winds will occur Monday with the occlusion. A spell of lighter winds then follows overnight before very strong (and cold) westerlies arrive with the hang-back trough, which has now returned to about the same intensity as before the 18z run.

I continue to be concerned about the role of the very cold wrap-around in this circulation for possible last-minute intensification, plus the fact that you tend to get more value for gradient when the air mass is colder.

As to storm number two, it is still on track and more of a Thursday night event now, with plenty of potential. The central pressure on this run is a more realistic 950 mbs and the centre (as I speculated earlier) is now very close to Belmullet. It must be stressed, this storm is so far away in developmental terms that the actual outcome could be vastly different.

More later when I've seen the GEM, UKMO and ECM.

nacho libre · 11-12-2011 5:41am

Pangea wrote: »

If tuesdays storm has been downgraded to an average event after looking so promising then I suspect the same might happen for Fridays Storm.
(OMG Im beginning to sound like nacho! :eek: :pac:)

Are you saying i'm a pessimist

:pac:

Redsunset · 11-12-2011 5:42am

I keep waiting for the downgrades and it just is not happening.Are we really going to experience our own Night(s) of the big winds,tis looking somewhat likely for first one while second is still too far out to say BUT fairly consistent for many runs now.Perhaps a last min change will happen.
0Z GFS TUESDAY

0Z GFS THURSDAY

This Week's Storms - FORECAST, MODEL DISCUSSION ONLY

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