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03-11-2020, 13:05   #3046
opinionated3
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What do you mean by get their house in order? Is it just cave to the demands of the travel sector?

Yes we've all had a **** year, but one sure way of making 2021 starts **** as well is to ignore the public health advice at Christmas.
But what's the solution? They've already more or less admitted we'll probably be back in full lockdown again by February...... Which means more catastrophic job losses in aviation as well as other industries. It's easy for holohan to pontificate.... His job is well paid and safe. What happened to the living with covid plan? Cos what's going on at the moment is just existing with restrictions.....I certainly wouldn't call it living.
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03-11-2020, 13:11   #3047
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And this is exactly why the government need to get their aviation, and travel generally, house in order. People are going to come home for Christmas by any way they can. Tony can sit there and say what he wants but there is nothing stopping people from coming into the country once they say that they are going to isolate for 2 weeks and we all know that's not going to happen. I think they are being a bit naive if they think anyone is going to listen to travel advise for Christmas day. We have all had a $h1t year between isolation, losing jobs and everything else. Everyone will want to be around family and friends on Dec 25th so the sooner they realise that and plan for it the better.
Flights should ramp up from 14th December to get people home for Christmas and allow people to come back to see family they haven't seen all year.

Holohan definitely won't be easing restrictions for Travel anytime soon, will be lucky if the current Level 5 will be eased by then..
While NPHETs policy won't change people will still come home to Ireland for the holidays and others will leave, probably not to return...
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03-11-2020, 13:20   #3048
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What do you mean by get their house in order? Is it just cave to the demands of the travel sector?

Yes we've all had a **** year, but one sure way of making 2021 starts **** as well is to ignore the public health advice at Christmas.
I mean that they ned to come up with a clear plan and actually stick with it, the living with covid plan is a prime example of the confusion they are causing. A really good 5 level plan was devised, in fairness it was really clear and gave people an idea of where we were going and a stepped approach for living with this. The idea being as things got better or worse we move up or down a level. Literally the day after it comes out they start mixing up parts of the 5 stages and caused mass confusion. It's the same for aviation, one of the biggest concerns everyone has is the lack of any idea where this is moving and they might end up with a cancelled flight of having to isolate for 2 weeks.

As for ignoring the advise, I think people have had enough and are tired of it. You are right in that we will set ourselves up for failure in the new year but it's going to happen anyway. It does not help when you have a certain cohort of people protesting and almost assaulting people for wearing masks on the Luas and getting away with it. Let's enforce the rules, the general public would support that but it's not happening right now.
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03-11-2020, 13:26   #3049
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But what's the solution? They've already more or less admitted we'll probably be back in full lockdown again by February...... Which means more catastrophic job losses in aviation as well as other industries. It's easy for holohan to pontificate.... His job is well paid and safe. What happened to the living with covid plan? Cos what's going on at the moment is just existing with restrictions.....I certainly wouldn't call it living.
Those that are calling for an alternative way need to propose the solution. And before it's mentioned, rapid antigen tests are not a solution at the moment because they fall to detect asymptomatic and presymptomatic cases.
Instead of pulling against the measures, everyone impacted should be pulling with, pulling to get us back to orange and green so travel can resume.
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03-11-2020, 14:08   #3050
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But what are nphets parameters for allowing travel? What are the exact numbers/stats required so that, for example, my wife and I could go to, say, Portugal on a two week holiday, and return home and go to work as normal? They aren't able to define that and therein lies the essential problem for aviation. I won't book any flights anywhere whilst believing I may have to complete a 14 day quarantine when I come home. That's just not realistic or doable for most working people.
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03-11-2020, 14:25   #3051
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But what are nphets parameters for allowing travel? What are the exact numbers/stats required so that, for example, my wife and I could go to, say, Portugal on a two week holiday, and return home and go to work as normal? They aren't able to define that and therein lies the essential problem for aviation. I won't book any flights anywhere whilst believing I may have to complete a 14 day quarantine when I come home. That's just not realistic or doable for most working people.
NPHET don't set policy, they only advise Government. The numbers that permit travel are the incidence/1000 in the country you are coming from and the country you are travelling to. With green and orange levels, as per the traffic light system, travel can reopen.

Government cannot give the certainty you require because it is not possible. They do not know what the situation is going to be like with any certainty in this country at any point in the future, let alone the kind of horizons needed to plan and book a holiday. The same goes for any country you might travel to.

Some on the forum think seen to think these issues are unique to Ireland, that it's our governments incompetence that's the cause of this. This is rather strange in an aviation forum, which should have a more global perspective than most. These are the challenges that every country faces. Every country is trying to square public health needs with what are largely public travel desires.

Just because this is unpalatable doesn't make it any less true.
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03-11-2020, 14:51   #3052
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Those that are calling for an alternative way need to propose the solution. And before it's mentioned, rapid antigen tests are not a solution at the moment because they fall to detect asymptomatic and presymptomatic cases.
antigen tests are a very legitimate solution when there is slack w.r.t. ICU spaces in Hospitals.
You seem to be intent on deflecting from the Health Service's adject inability to deliver sufficient ICU spaces.
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03-11-2020, 14:54   #3053
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I wish Tony 'd just ...uck off... He' should be held to accounts for his dramatic failure with cervical cancer and attempts to cover it up...
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03-11-2020, 16:26   #3054
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antigen tests are a very legitimate solution when there is slack w.r.t. ICU spaces in Hospitals.
You seem to be intent on deflecting from the Health Service's adject inability to deliver sufficient ICU spaces.
In living memory, the health service has never had sufficient ICU beds. WRT this pandemic, that ship has long sailed, there is very little practical use in lamenting it.
The cold hard reality is that there is never ‘slack’ in ICU capacity in this country - it runs at high 90’s % year round. The only way to increase that capacity (over and above the surge capacity that the HSE have prepared for) is to cancel all major elective surgery. So the choice is now to allow discretionary travel will sub optimal rapid testing (which I don’t think stands up to scrutiny tbh, but that’s another topic) at the cost of normal health service provision, or to have a more functional health service with stricter travel protocols.
Now while many (maybe most) people in this forum might go for option A, the rest of the country won’t be having it.
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03-11-2020, 16:39   #3055
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That's a very weak response.
In March the underlying lack of sufficient ICU spaces became obvious and it wasn't addressed. The signs were obvious.
Germany has enough ICU spaces, Ireland doesn't.
You've decided to excuse the Irish Health Service's inability to provide enough baseline ICU spaces. The answer is obvious but you don't like it and discount it. There are simply not enough ICU beds.
If a Manager was giving those sort answers to critical business issues like that in my Company they'd be(and have been) re-org'd out of their position.

Last edited by haphaphap; 03-11-2020 at 16:46.
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03-11-2020, 16:56   #3056
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.......wanders in looking for aviation stuff.......nothing here........
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03-11-2020, 17:09   #3057
MrMusician18
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Originally Posted by haphaphap View Post
antigen tests are a very legitimate solution when there is slack w.r.t. ICU spaces in Hospitals.
You seem to be intent on deflecting from the Health Service's adject inability to deliver sufficient ICU spaces.
I'm not deflecting from the lack of capacity in the health service, it happens every year and this time the health service has been found out with it's pants down. But being unhappy with that changes nothing, we have the capacity we have and that's what we have to work with.

It takes years to build up ICU capacity, not six months. The most that could've been fine was to add a handful of extra beds - which was done. You simply cannot magic the equipment and more importantly the trained staff to man them out of thin air - anyone involved in a highly specialized sector such as aviation should be able to grasp that.

There is no slack with the hospitals ICU. The only spare capacity is surge capacity and then you are into postponing and cancelling non-covid treatments.
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03-11-2020, 17:34   #3058
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Originally Posted by haphaphap View Post
That's a very weak response.
In March the underlying lack of sufficient ICU spaces became obvious and it wasn't addressed. The signs were obvious.
Germany has enough ICU spaces, Ireland doesn't.
You've decided to excuse the Irish Health Service's inability to provide enough baseline ICU spaces. The answer is obvious but you don't like it and discount it. There are simply not enough ICU beds.
If a Manager was giving those sort answers to critical business issues like that in my Company they'd be(and have been) re-org'd out of their position.
It’s not a weak response. It’s reality. Germany has had enough ICU spaces for 30+ years. They have 29 per 100,000, we have 5. I’m not excusing the health service - I’m just stating fact.
How long do you think it takes to open up a new ICU bed? It’s a bit like an airline wanting to ramp up capacity in response to unprecedented demand. Finding new airframes and pilots in an environment where everyone else is looking for the same thing is difficult to impossible. The HSE have done what they can wrt the surge capacity. There is nothing else available.
You’re not dealing in what’s possible. That’s a very bad place to begin.

I’m guessing your company knows diddly squat about health services.
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03-11-2020, 17:48   #3059
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.......wanders in looking for aviation stuff.......nothing here........
So, Emirates flying 4 x A380's and a triple 7 into London on Wednesday... maybe a lot of people coming and going before the lockdown?
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03-11-2020, 17:59   #3060
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It’s not a weak response. It’s reality. Germany has had enough ICU spaces for 30+ years. They have 29 per 100,000, we have 5. I’m not excusing the health service - I’m just stating fact.
How long do you think it takes to open up a new ICU bed? It’s a bit like an airline wanting to ramp up capacity in response to unprecedented demand. Finding new airframes and pilots in an environment where everyone else is looking for the same thing is difficult to impossible. The HSE have done what they can wrt the surge capacity. There is nothing else available.
You’re not dealing in what’s possible. That’s a very bad place to begin.

I’m guessing your company knows diddly squat about health services.

You are excusing the Health Services if you not able to reconcile roughly 30 beds as opposed to 5 beds per 100,000 population. Ireland is spending similar amounts or more on Health in purchasing power parity terms as Germany and France for many, many years. This did not happen overnight.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.XPD.CHEX.PP.CD

You are happy to see them close down the country indefinitely because the Health Services are not fit for purpose and to hell with the cost to others.

I'm especially cranky today as my flights for a few weeks from now have been cancelled and Holohan is telling the press that visiting family is not a legitimate reason to visit Ireland at Christmas.
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