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27-02-2020, 12:23   #1
d51984
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Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

The current Coronavirus epidemic seems to be getting worse by the day, just wondering what complications if any may happen in the not to distant future.

Can we start taking peoples temperatures on arrival in to the country? Open up isolation centers in major cities? Will Aer Lingus and Ryanair start suspending flights, mainly to Italy so far?

This thing is going to get worse,and now its not a question of weather it arrives in Ireland but a matter of how long until it arrives.

Thoughts?
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27-02-2020, 13:32   #2
Tenger
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It’s actually “getting” better in the initial origin zone. Daily increases in new cases are falling in China. There are over 20k patients recovered. (Out of 78K confirmed cases in China)

The problem is with people who may have been exposed but aren't taking precautions. This is the most probable cause of the Italian outbreak.
The Sth Korean epicentre revolves around a large church community, think side by side in mass, shaking hands, eating together.

Airlines had procedures in place for SARS, Swineflu and Foot and Mouth. I’m guessing they will have procedures in place now.
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27-02-2020, 14:06   #3
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I'm in Luxembourg next week but after that Shell has banned our travel. Only domestic travel or car driving in europe. No Flights or trains.
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27-02-2020, 14:47   #4
martinsvi
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banning a flight to a specific region is not effective - people still need to travel and they will find a way to get going. Globally speaking, you are better off getting people from A to B as quickly as possible, rather making them jump hoops and loops just to get to their destination - less exposure to other people.

Same thing with taking temperature - costs a lot, return for value quite small due to nature of the virus and people taking drugs to push the temperature down. People who care about their health and those around them will self report to medics. People who don't care of either will find a way to sneak by.

it is likely that virus is already in Ireland, it's just that symptoms might be mild enough for people carrying on with their lives without realizing they are sick. Another problem is the hysteria in Teneriffe - with all the lock downs and everything, I honestly believe people are more likely to hide the issue out of fear of overreaction
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27-02-2020, 16:38   #5
smurfjed
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Saudi Arabia has banned all Umrah religious travel, and issued severe restrictions on a lot of countries. As their holy cities are a gathering place for multiple nationalities, this a serious attempt to stop the spread.

Now will the vatican do the same.
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27-02-2020, 16:54   #6
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I think it will pass in a few months and be forgotten about by mid summer
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27-02-2020, 16:56   #7
d51984
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I hope your right, and hopefully Chinese airlines mostly affected by this can survive, however I still feel things will get worse before they get better. St Patricks day festival will be the one to watch now.
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27-02-2020, 16:59   #8
Locker10a
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Quote:
Originally Posted by d51984 View Post
I hope your right, and hopefully Chinese airlines mostly affected by this can survive, however I still feel things will get worse before they get better. St Patricks day festival will be the one to watch now.
Possibly but I feel it’s mostly hysteria by the media (what’s new)
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27-02-2020, 17:07   #9
Tenger
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It certainly has the potential to be extremely serious.
I dont think it’s hysteria by the media, but I do feel the media should be doing more to highlight the precautions needed to lower transmission (hand washing, cough/sneeze etiquette, personal contact)

I honestly think scaling back St.Patricks events in cities is needed.
The Haji is already a source of mass transfer/infection (as are concerts and conferences) For the Saudis to be considering halting it is a sign of how serious it is.

The biggest issue is not the virus itself (as it has a 2% CFR) but the strain on health infrastructure. The need for testing suspected cases, isolating patients, protecting medics, preventing spread is a harder task than actually treating the virus.
The first human tests on a possible vaccine are happening in April.
Realistically you aren’t going to see a viable vaccine available before Xmas.

I don’t go so far as to think that air travel should be stopped but the airports and airlines will need to be on top of their procedures. And Govt should be advising no travel unless necessary (granted that has a wide catchment!)
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27-02-2020, 17:30   #10
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Has there been any reported cases where the person picked up the virus on a plane. We have heard a lot about cruise ships but I don't remember hearing anything about in flight infection, which is fascinating given the confined space on an aircraft, even an A380.
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27-02-2020, 17:31   #11
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I hope your right, and hopefully Chinese airlines mostly affected by this can survive.....
There was an article in the Indo last week about the Hainan Airlines group possibly being nationalised and broken up - they were already in bad financial shape before all this - which would make all the large mainland Chinese airlines state-controlled, so they will all be fine.

Over there, I would be more worried about Hong Kong-based airlines. Over this side of the world, it will be interesting to see how much money the European long-haul carriers are losing over this - I seem to remember reading that AF/KLM made 14% of their revenue on flights to mainland China but all their flights to there are grounded from early February until the end of March at the earliest. Hopefully they all survive if it continues much longer.
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27-02-2020, 17:46   #12
martinsvi
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Lufthansa is also being very pessimistic:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/lu...rus-2020-02-26
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27-02-2020, 17:58   #13
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Has there been any reported cases where the person picked up the virus on a plane
One Korean FA caught the virus on a Tel Aviv flight and then flew on at least 4 long haul flights,
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28-02-2020, 09:28   #14
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How are Norwegian looking ?
They have been on the edge for years now, but haven't they got some bond deal to kick the problem down the road for a year or so more - but this virus could break them .... hope not ..
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28-02-2020, 11:30   #15
d51984
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Person in the North that has it traveled through Dublin airport. Only a matter of time now.
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