Winter 2019/2020 - General Discussion

US2 wrote: »

The stretch is back , sunsets after 5pm now. 15 more days and itll be bright till after 6pm. February is one of my favourite months, your just coming out of winter, seeing things come back to life and daydreaming of beautiful summer days .

you could be in luck again this February. The middle 2 weeks of February do look quite unsettled but mild, however there are signals that the final week of February could develop high pressure from the south, if that was to happen and if winds were light up from Spain or Canarys we could potentially see temperatures reaching 15 or 16C in spells of sunshine and feeling very spring like. The more easterly that southerly wind becomes, would lower the temperatures more and more.

The final week of February is well off beyond FI, there is every possibility we could see the closing days of February in a similar settled spell as last year, just perhaps not as overly warm as last February, that would take some serious beating.

nacho libre wrote: »

If an active jet is algined in a north west south east axis, we could get spells of colder weather in between passing systems. Is that what Typhoony meant?
Anyway i'm not ready for Summer. If we do get very mild temperatures to end February, it's almost a guarantee that we will pay for it later on into Spring.

I think we will get some cold in Spring too, but hopefully it doesn't stick around and ruin the early part of summer either. The depth of cold that's been locked across the pole, Iceland and the northern fringes of Scandinavia all winter has to go somewhere. The PV will weaken eventually, although no signs of that as of yet. I think February will deliver very little if any snow away from high ground in the west and north-west but snow could still happen in March of even April, even if it's very short lived or transitional. With the exception of 2009 and 2010, most years we seem to see more snow in Spring than in Winter.

We had a very mild January overall, perhaps one of the mildest January's of the past decade. Dunsany finished January with 55.1mm of rain, making it the dryest month since July 2019 and an indicator that the prolonged deluge spell of August-early December is behind us.

What is not behind us is the mild and extremely zonal winter. Dunsany finished with a mean temperature of 5.8C which is 1.2C above the average. During the incredibly mild winter of 2018/2019, Dunsany finished with a 5.0C January, so this January has well beaten last winters January in terms of warmth.

I don't think this winter will beat last winter for overall mild as December this year finished with 5.6C which is 0.5C above average, but that pales in comparison to December 2018 which finished with a balmy 7.6C. February 2018 finished with a 7.0C, more than 2C above average.

We would need this February to be even warmer to stand any chance of beating last winter for overall warmth and I don't think we will do it. However I still think this February will be a milder than average month, making this winter another very mild but not record breaking mild winter.

esposito wrote: »

New York has seen very little snow and is unusually mild this winter. So it’s not just Europe that’s been very mild. Wouldn’t be surprised if the east coast of US gets a major arctic outbreak in the next few weeks though.

most places in the typical northern hemisphere winter zone have been much milder than usual, that includes most of Europe, Russia from the European side to the far east near Alaska and eastern half of north America. Western Canada and probably parts of western US have been below average a fair bit. Very little has changed since over the past 2 months with the mild just going on and on.