Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Winter 2011/2012

11314161819118

Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    oh okay thanks for clearing that up, how do i find charts that show temps?

    There's also a temperature at 2m option now as well, not sure how accurate it is but it'll give a general idea anyway

    The links are along the top, [Temp. 850hPa] for the upper air temps and [Temp. 2m] for the ground level temps.

    The chart you posted above is used mainly to get an idea of wind direction and strength, air flows clockwise around high pressure and anti-clockwise around low pressure, the closer the lines are together the stronger the wind. So the wind on the chart above will be coming from the north-west but the colours aren't really that relevant to conditions on the ground so its not as cold as it looks!

    Probably a bit overwhelming at first but its not too hard to get a hang of it, this time last year I didn't really know anything about them but after a year I have a decent idea of what to expect without reading any forecasts


  • Registered Users Posts: 30 Scorpdoc


    I have reason to believe ( not psychic and probably not scientific, not a gut instinct, just by observation) that this winter is going to be typical damp blustery, atlantic temp ( 5-12 c) winter, like last January. My reasoning is:

    1. Sun is spitting out CME otherwise the UV level is higher: Scientist believe the cold winter is due to the unusual quiteness of the Sun. The sun has a eleven year cycle, the start is quite and towards the end it creates sunspots that shoot out cmes The sun recently woke up and is active, but its slumber this time was a little longer than expected, hence the low UV IN 09/10. Its up and going again.

    2. September this year is the wettest in some years, we had a wet September last year though, however this never carried into October. This is due to the end of th anti cyclonic weather over the Atlantic. If you remember are snow cam from the east and it cleared once the prevailing wind from the Atlantic came back. A week Atlantic pressure and you will see the eastern winds back.

    3.Cloud cover: September was a record for dullness, the more cloud cover, the less frost. October is still dark.

    4. Ireland is prepared for a long winter, we bought tons of rock salt via the states coffers, its traditional we get this wrong

    5. Its unusually warm: We had a cold summer, but its October now and many have not turned their central heatings.I actually read an article that flowers are reblooming, unnatural;y. Sorry I dont have proof.


  • Registered Users Posts: 245 ✭✭Blizzard 2010


    vibe666 wrote: »
    then what is it, or are you just going to tease us? :(
    Weatheronline are predicting a chilly November and a Very cold early December. I am predicting that any mild incursions will be to a short lived. We will have mild incursions during middle part of December. I am also predicting heavy snowfalls during the Christmas period. dont be fooled by this present warm weather. this will be gone in the next forthnight.


  • Subscribers Posts: 8,322 ✭✭✭Scubadevils


    Scorpdoc wrote: »
    I have reason to believe ( not psychic and probably not scientific, not a gut instinct, just by observation) that this winter is going to be typical damp blustery, atlantic temp ( 5-12 c) winter, like last January. My reasoning is:

    1. Sun is spitting out CME otherwise the UV level is higher: Scientist believe the cold winter is due to the unusual quiteness of the Sun. The sun has a eleven year cycle, the start is quite and towards the end it creates sunspots that shoot out cmes The sun recently woke up and is active, but its slumber this time was a little longer than expected, hence the low UV IN 09/10. Its up and going again.

    2. September this year is the wettest in some years, we had a wet September last year though, however this never carried into October. This is due to the end of th anti cyclonic weather over the Atlantic. If you remember are snow cam from the east and it cleared once the prevailing wind from the Atlantic came back. A week Atlantic pressure and you will see the eastern winds back.

    3.Cloud cover: September was a record for dullness, the more cloud cover, the less frost. October is still dark.

    4. Ireland is prepared for a long winter, we bought tons of rock salt via the states coffers, its traditional we get this wrong

    5. Its unusually warm: We had a cold summer, but its October now and many have not turned their central heatings.I actually read an article that flowers are reblooming, unnatural;y. Sorry I dont have proof.

    I am certainly no weather expert, hardly an amateur either :pac: but I was interested in your last point regarding October and the current temps so I had a look at the stats on met.ie for October 2010, 2009 and 2008 - from what I can see there is a trend for progressively warmer Octobers over the last 3 with the colder temps arriving later each year... you need to download a PDF for each months data, prob an easier way that I'm not aware of however!

    http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly-summary.asp


  • Registered Users Posts: 30 Scorpdoc


    I am certainly no weather expert, hardly an amateur either :pac: but I was interested in your last point regarding October and the current temps so I had a look at the stats on met.ie for October 2010, 2009 and 2008 - from what I can see there is a trend for progressively warmer Octobers over the last 3 with the colder temps arriving later each year... you need to download a PDF for each months data, prob an easier way that I'm not aware of however!

    http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly-summary.asp

    Yes, that is quite conclusive. But I feel, in my honest opinion that it will be a wet winter. I just think the weather is again acting differently as per the last few years. But it wouldnt surprise me if there is a blizzard next week :confused:

    Medium term prediction doesnt seem to be an exact science (IMHO), more of a pseudoscience, even from the experts.:mad:

    Excellent thread by the way.:cool:


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 5,491 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Scorpdoc wrote: »
    I have reason to believe ( not psychic and probably not scientific, not a gut instinct, just by observation) that this winter is going to be typical damp blustery, atlantic temp ( 5-12 c) winter, like last January. My reasoning is:

    1. Sun is spitting out CME otherwise the UV level is higher: Scientist believe the cold winter is due to the unusual quiteness of the Sun. The sun has a eleven year cycle, the start is quite and towards the end it creates sunspots that shoot out cmes The sun recently woke up and is active, but its slumber this time was a little longer than expected, hence the low UV IN 09/10. Its up and going again.

    2. September this year is the wettest in some years, we had a wet September last year though, however this never carried into October. This is due to the end of th anti cyclonic weather over the Atlantic. If you remember are snow cam from the east and it cleared once the prevailing wind from the Atlantic came back. A week Atlantic pressure and you will see the eastern winds back.

    3.Cloud cover: September was a record for dullness, the more cloud cover, the less frost. October is still dark.

    4. Ireland is prepared for a long winter, we bought tons of rock salt via the states coffers, its traditional we get this wrong

    5. Its unusually warm: We had a cold summer, but its October now and many have not turned their central heatings.I actually read an article that flowers are reblooming, unnatural;y. Sorry I dont have proof.
    em october weather doesnt really have any bearing on the weather of the next 3 months(well no scientific proof). but going by your logic we should expect a cold winter then,your saying this october is very warm well usually hotter than average octobers are followed by cold winters, all the last 3 octobers were above average temps and look what followed those 3 years;) nd it wasnt just those 3 years a lot of very cold winters were preceeded by a warm october. i think its a bit early to be hammering the nail in the coffin right now, i think theres a very severe winter a coming:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 30 ShawB


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    em october weather doesnt really have any bearing on the weather of the next 3 months(well no scientific proof). but going by your logic we should expect a cold winter then,your saying this october is very warm well usually hotter than average octobers are followed by cold winters, all the last 3 octobers were above average temps and look what followed those 3 years;) nd it wasnt just those 3 years a lot of very cold winters were preceeded by a warm october. i think its a bit early to be hammering the nail in the coffin right now, i think theres a very severe winter a coming:D

    Think we have found a right young weather enthusiast in you bb ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,491 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Scorpdoc wrote: »
    I have reason to believe ( not psychic and probably not scientific, not a gut instinct, just by observation) that this winter is going to be typical damp blustery, atlantic temp ( 5-12 c) winter, like last January. My reasoning is:

    1. Sun is spitting out CME otherwise the UV level is higher: Scientist believe the cold winter is due to the unusual quiteness of the Sun. The sun has a eleven year cycle, the start is quite and towards the end it creates sunspots that shoot out cmes The sun recently woke up and is active, but its slumber this time was a little longer than expected, hence the low UV IN 09/10. Its up and going again.

    2. September this year is the wettest in some years, we had a wet September last year though, however this never carried into October. This is due to the end of th anti cyclonic weather over the Atlantic. If you remember are snow cam from the east and it cleared once the prevailing wind from the Atlantic came back. A week Atlantic pressure and you will see the eastern winds back.

    3.Cloud cover: September was a record for dullness, the more cloud cover, the less frost. October is still dark.

    4. Ireland is prepared for a long winter, we bought tons of rock salt via the states coffers, its traditional we get this wrong

    5. Its unusually warm: We had a cold summer, but its October now and many have not turned their central heatings.I actually read an article that flowers are reblooming, unnatural;y. Sorry I dont have proof.

    re to point 1- sunspot activity is still way below what it should be and bear in mind there could be a lag effect, and the increase in activity may not take effect until next winter or later.

    re point 2- that doesnt really make much sense, september wether isnt a very good indicator of how cold our winter will be!ireland obviously will not be dominated by easterly winds for 12 months a year this sint siberia! ireland will always be dominated by both atlantic depressions and easterlies (and other wind directions too of course) the easterly winds are caused by northern blocking and obviously the northern blocking has to give in at some point and rebuild again later. much of our summer was dominated by northern blocking giving us the cold summer weather, northern blocking it just so happens has stopped now since start of september but is forecast to begin again end of october!!

    3- again doesnt really mean we wont have a cold winter.could all change very quickly.
    4- haha true now you got me there:p
    5- as i said in my last post.

    so i think you shoudnt jump the shark too quickly, this winter could well turn out to be a very cold one,fingers crossed anyway:D are you hoping for a cold or mild one?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,491 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    ShawB wrote: »
    Think we have found a right young weather enthusiast in you bb ;)

    ha thanks but i really dont know much:p i just try to act smart and look like i know loads:p


  • Registered Users Posts: 30 Scorpdoc


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    em october weather doesnt really have any bearing on the weather of the next 3 months(well no scientific proof). but going by your logic we should expect a cold winter then,your saying this october is very warm well usually hotter than average octobers are followed by cold winters, all the last 3 octobers were above average temps and look what followed those 3 years;) nd it wasnt just those 3 years a lot of very cold winters were preceeded by a warm october. i think its a bit early to be hammering the nail in the coffin right now, i think theres a very severe winter a coming:D

    You are probably right, but the my point of the increased activity over the Atlantic is a different event from the last few years. Then again, you could be spot on as the experts are saying the same.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 30 Scorpdoc


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    re to point 1- sunspot activity is still way below what it should be and bear in mind there could be a lag effect, and the increase in activity may not take effect until next winter or later.

    re point 2- that doesnt really make much sense, september wether isnt a very good indicator of how cold our winter will be!ireland obviously will not be dominated by easterly winds for 12 months a year this sint siberia! ireland will always be dominated by both atlantic depressions and easterlies (and other wind directions too of course) the easterly winds are caused by northern blocking and obviously the northern blocking has to give in at some point and rebuild again later. much of our summer was dominated by northern blocking giving us the cold summer weather, northern blocking it just so happens has stopped now since start of september but is forecast to begin again end of october!!

    3- again doesnt really mean we wont have a cold winter.could all change very quickly.
    4- haha true now you got me there:p
    5- as i said in my last post.

    so i think you shoudnt jump the shark too quickly, this winter could well turn out to be a very cold one,fingers crossed anyway:D are you hoping for a cold or mild one?

    Hoping for a cold one, love the snow :D . But cant see it happening.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    ha thanks but i really dont know much:p i just try to act smart and look like i know loads:p

    Posting this after your knowledgeable posts kind of undoes the effect of the good posts!!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,499 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Scorpdoc wrote: »
    I have reason to believe ( not psychic and probably not scientific, not a gut instinct, just by observation) that this winter is going to be typical damp blustery, atlantic temp ( 5-12 c) winter, like last January. My reasoning is:

    Last January wasn't Atlantic weather if i recall correctly, im sure it was colder and dryier than normal. prehaps you mean February.


  • Registered Users Posts: 30 Scorpdoc


    Last January wasn't Atlantic weather if i recall correctly, im sure it was colder and dryier than normal. prehaps you mean February.

    From Memory, it was a month dominated by prevailing winds. Therefore warmer thawing weather, warmer than early December.


  • Registered Users Posts: 30 Scorpdoc


    Last January wasn't Atlantic weather if i recall correctly, im sure it was colder and dryier than normal. prehaps you mean February.

    But you are correct, drier than normal.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,499 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Scorpdoc wrote: »
    From Memory, it was a month dominated by prevailing winds. Therefore warmer thawing weather, warmer than early December.

    Ah come on warmer than early december, the spell that broke all records :pac:
    I remember january as being high pressure dominated with plenty of frost despite no snow events.

    I'm sure some of the experts might recall the month better but im fairly certain that it wasn't your standard atlantic driven winter month.


  • Registered Users Posts: 30 Scorpdoc


    Ah come on warmer than early december, the spell that broke all records :pac:
    I remember january as being high pressure dominated with plenty of frost despite no snow events.

    I'm sure some of the experts might recall the month better but im fairly certain that it wasn't your standard atlantic driven winter month.

    It not was sub Artic temperature like November/December


  • Registered Users Posts: 30 Scorpdoc


    Ah come on warmer than early december, the spell that broke all records :pac:
    I remember january as being high pressure dominated with plenty of frost despite no snow events.

    I'm sure some of the experts might recall the month better but im fairly certain that it wasn't your standard atlantic driven winter month.

    http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly_summarys/jan11sum.pdf

    There is the experts results, please see link.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Scorpdoc wrote: »
    http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly_summarys/jan11sum.pdf

    There is the experts results, please see link.
    . Mean air
    temperatures of between 3°C and 5.5°C were around a degree below normal everywhere,

    Reading that, the month started with northerlies, switched briefly to atlantic weather before high pressure dominated bringing cold clear weather.

    Certainly not dominated by the atlantic, and I remember having 2 ice days here when the freezing fog failed to lift.


  • Registered Users Posts: 30 Scorpdoc


    Scorpdoc wrote: »
    From Memory, it was a month dominated by prevailing winds. Therefore warmer thawing weather, warmer than early December.

    My point I was trying to make that it was milder from November December, with regards Atlantic domination, I was referring to more the wind direction.

    It was all from memory, all I know it wasn't as bad as pre-Christmas.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 209 ✭✭FootShooter


    First real snow fell today in the mountains of Southern-Norway.

    This is what happened:
    http://www.nrk.no/nyheter/distrikt/ostafjells/buskerud/1.7825971
    http://www.tv2.no/nyheter/innenriks/flere-trafikkulykker-i-snoevaeret-det-er-livsfarlig-aa-kjoere-med-sommerdekk-naa-3605887.html
    http://www.dagbladet.no/2011/10/09/nyheter/innenriks/ver/18515569/
    http://www.nettavisen.no/vaer/article3247488.ece

    Use Google translate if you want to read what the articles say.

    People going to the mountains for the weekend with summertyres on, without checking the forecast. Going back down the mountains on snow covered roads with summertyres equals disaster. I bet most of you didn't think anything like this could happen in Norway? Happens every single year, and it's going to happen again when the first snow falls in the cities in a few weeks or so.

    Also, I would deeply recommend investing in a set of wintertyres if the prediction of the cold winter lasting for 50 years is correct. Non-spiked are the best for snow, and spiked tyres are best for ice.


  • Registered Users Posts: 767 ✭✭✭davidsr20


    Scorpdoc wrote: »
    My point I was trying to make that it was milder from November December, with regards Atlantic domination, I was referring to more the wind direction.

    It was all from memory, all I know it wasn't as bad as pre-Christmas.

    U really are trying to rain on our parrade h ha it's going to be coldest ever I hope ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,499 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Scorpdoc wrote: »
    My point I was trying to make that it was milder from November December, with regards Atlantic domination, I was referring to more the wind direction.

    It was all from memory, all I know it wasn't as bad as pre-Christmas.

    But that wasn't your point, what you said was that this winter was going is going to be typical damp blustery, atlantic temp winter like last January.

    Last December was coldest month in 100 odd years, January was obviously nowhere near as cold but it still wasn't zonality as you had suggested.

    You may however be correct in your prediction for this winter.....


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,257 ✭✭✭Tindie


    Papers are yet again talking about snow
    (The BIG HEAD LINES ARE)

    Daily Express - BRITAIN FACES A MINI 'ICE AGE' LOL
    http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/276516

    Mail - Winter's first icy blast is on the way: Frost and temperatures of -3C by the weekend

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2047245/UK-weather-First-frost-temperatures-3C-weekend.html

    The Sun -Grit ready for a chilly -20°C'
    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/3861224/Grit-ready-for-a-chilly-20C.html

    Daily Star - UK WEATHER: RIVIERA AND THEN ARCTIC!
    http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/view/215050/UK-weather-Riviera-and-then-Arctic-/

    The Mirror as no news about snow!


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,153 ✭✭✭jimbobaloobob


    Sure if they keep guessing eventually they will be right

    Take what comes i say.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,016 ✭✭✭✭vibe666


    maybe it's just a slow news week and they've nothing better to do? :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 5 m.kelly




  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Tindie wrote: »
    Papers are yet again talking about snow
    (The BIG HEAD LINES ARE)

    Daily Express - BRITAIN FACES A MINI 'ICE AGE' LOL
    http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/276516

    Mail - Winter's first icy blast is on the way: Frost and temperatures of -3C by the weekend

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2047245/UK-weather-First-frost-temperatures-3C-weekend.html

    The Sun -Grit ready for a chilly -20°C'
    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/3861224/Grit-ready-for-a-chilly-20C.html

    Daily Star - UK WEATHER: RIVIERA AND THEN ARCTIC!
    http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/view/215050/UK-weather-Riviera-and-then-Arctic-/

    The Mirror as no news about snow!
    Il take your links and raise you :D

    REVEALED: WORST WINTER EVER ON WAY TO DONEGAL AS -20C TO HIT COUNTY


    http://www.donegaldaily.com/2011/10/10/revealed-worst-winter-ever-on-way-to-donegal-as-20c-to-hit-county/


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,499 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    m.kelly wrote: »

    Fair miserly odds there by Mr. Power.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    How come Exacta weather are getting so much news coverage?
    Have they a good record for forecasting cold winters?


This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement