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Hurricane Michael

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  • Registered Users Posts: 23,371 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Current status - Mission 12

    recon_AF301-1114A-MICHAEL_timeseries.png

    Notable intensification here. It's kicking off fast.


    goes16_ir_14L_201810092243.jpg?25.5273.6

    Really impressive infrared.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,371 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Three planes currently in the storm, all consistently reporting max 90-kt SFMR winds, yet the NHC raise it to 105 kts! They quote the highest flight level wind was only 109 kts, which would normally yield a surface wind of 90-95 kts, yet this time they're not applying that reduction factor at all. I knew they'd overdo it as always, but not by that much. I'm baffled at why they do this.

    They told us. They want to be "generous".


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,371 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    124 kt flight level wind just recorded on mission 12

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/


    Currently this is evolving in to a potential Category 4 strength hurricane and it's happening fast.


    The eye is now surrounded by deep convection.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    Massive rapid intensification going on in the latest satellite loops. Check out that burst of activity to the North of the eye:

    https://i.imgur.com/L8D0jiQ.gifv


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,371 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    DVORAK has it now at 115 kts. Which would make it a Category 4 hurricane.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 39,366 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    124 kt flight level wind just recorded on mission 12

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/


    Currently this is evolving in to a potential Category 4 strength hurricane and it's happening fast.


    The eye is now surrounded by deep convection.

    So is this looking bad or is as you said above Kermit "being generous" ?

    I spoke to my friend in florida and they have got food and water and animals sorted and the "important stuff saved" which I'm taking to mean documents and important stuff they don't want damaged by water as they aren't right on the coast of the panhandle but they aren't that far away and are near a waterway.


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,323 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Kdf vs gl is the highlight of this thread for me so far


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,371 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    So is this looking bad or is as you said above Kermit "being generous" ?

    No not being generous, these are actual obs from the aerial recon.

    You can view the data as it comes in here. There are two flights currently in progress - Missions 12 and 11

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

    It's probably a Category 4 hurricane now.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 10,946 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh




  • Registered Users Posts: 23,371 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    goes16_ir_14L_201810100003.jpg?25.5273.6


    Eye clearing out. Deep convection surrounding the eye wall. Almost certainly Category 4 now based on obs as well. That's "Anderson Cooper" on the CNN hurricane scale, Wolf Blitzer doesn't get out of bed for any less than a Cat 5.


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  • Posts: 0 Noel Round Grocer


    Mission 11's latest pass (just after 2330Z) through the core had SFMR winds of 90 kts.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,371 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Mission 11's latest pass (just after 2330Z) through the core had SFMR winds of 90 kts.

    Data missing from the flight just as they were approaching the eye. They had to divert before hand too as they could not go through the tower cloud tops.


    Latest from mission 12 is a flight level speed now of 127 kts.

    recon_NOAA2-1214A-MICHAEL_timeseries.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,371 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Latest mission aerial pass just now shows surface pressure @ 948.5 mb and indicative surface wind speed of 127 mph.

    Flight level speed recorded @ 131 kts.

    It's near a Category 4 on that surface speed but in reality probably already is.


  • Posts: 0 Noel Round Grocer


    00Z SHIPS forecast

    463410.png

    The +18 hrs column are the predicted conditions 18km from landfall.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    I have to say it's deepened a lot more than I expected. I was originally thinking 85-ish. The highest SFMR wind so far has been 105 kts (the 110 kts at 03:55Z was unreliable). Mission 13 has just found another 105 kts in the NW eyewall 15 mins ago below a flight level wind of 135 kts. Will it reach CAT 4 (>113 kts)? Need to see the eastern and northeastern eyewall values, but hopefully it won't strengthen any more.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    They just indicated it has reached 130 mph cat-4 status, but I think the analysis you showed can be taken as the reason why it didn't go to a full-on cat-5 given some of the other factors in play. Whether it stays at cat-4 to landfall remains to be seen but in terms of wind impacts, it would be a lot less disruptive if it chose south rather than directly over Panama City, as population is rather sparse in comparison to the south (although a few smaller towns in harm's way). The surge will definitely be a big problem a lot further afield as most of the raised water levels will have to go east rather than west of Cape San Blas.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    123-knot surface winds found at 07:23Z. Shít's got real.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,096 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Winds up to 140mph now


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,163 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    123-knot surface winds found at 07:23Z. Shít's got real.

    GL is onboard the hype train! #pray4panhandle


  • Registered Users Posts: 22,124 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Seriously dangerous situation developing now. Governor Rick Scott and President Trump have said they're fully prepared. I hope they're right


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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220km/h) with higher gusts!

    That is going to cause some real destruction!


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Mission 13 has just measured 108-kt surface winds in the eastern eyewall and 105-kt in the northern eyewall at in the past 15 minutes. Any higher winds are likely very localised in a small part of the northeast eyewall. EDIT: Surface pressure 937.8 hPa on that pass.


  • Posts: 0 Noel Round Grocer


    123-knot surface winds found at 07:23Z. Shít's got real.

    SHIPS doesn't want to increase it to that level.

    463425.png


  • Posts: 0 Noel Round Grocer


    Image at 0927 UTC.

    463426.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    118 kts SFMR surface wind found in the northern eyewall a few mins ago. Nothing higher than the earlier 123 kts so far.

    It's withing radar range now. A nice site for watching high-density surface observations is this. No land gusts above 30 mph so far but Tyndall Tower offshore reporting 59 mph gust now.

    https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?&zoom=7&scroll_zoom=true&center=27.8000,-86.6000&basemap=OpenStreetMap&boundaries=true,false,false&hazard=true&hazard_type=hi-all&hazard_opacity=60&obs=true&obs_type=weather&elements=temp,dew,wind,rh,gust,slp&obs_popup=true&obs_density=1


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Mission 13 found 125 knots in the northeast eyewall at 10:53Z. Mission 14 is just in the eastern eyewall now and has found max 102 knots. It seems to have peaked in intensity, with the highest winds stabilising 120-125 kts in a narrow area of the northeast eyewall.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,096 ✭✭✭pad199207


    More strengthening to 145mph now. Will take a big push to reach Cat 5 Status


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Will this be one of the strongest late season hurricanes?


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,096 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Will this be one of the strongest late season hurricanes?

    Could be in the top ten strongest landfalls ever to hit the US


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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,460 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    I don't believe so, there's Wilma as a Cat 5 which peaked October 19 2005, and there's an unnamed hurricane from November 1932 that was also Cat 5 (though I don't know about the accuracy of older readings like that).

    Edit: I didn't see you said "one of the strongest" and not *the* strongest, so yes, that's definitely true.

    It could be the first Cat 4 hurricane to 'strike' (whatever that specifically means) the Florida Panhandle:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/10/10/hurricane-michael-could-become-strongest-record-strike-florida-panhandle-wednesday/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.aa0205fb77eb


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