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Property Market 2019

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  • Moderators, Education Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 35,032 Mod ✭✭✭✭AlmightyCushion


    tobsey wrote: »
    That’s true but for most people trading up the equity in their current home is the deposit for the next. If you have a house worth 300k and a mortgage of 200k and want to trade up to a 400k house, you have 100k deposit which is 25% LTV against the new house. If the value drops to 270k you now have 70k equity. The new house has dropped to 360k but you’re limited to a 350k house because your 70k has to be at least 20% of the new purchase price due to the CBI limits on second time buyers.

    I know the figures will be different for everyone but the scenario above is basically my situation. I would prefer prices to rise slightly to give me more equity because I’m currently limited by the LTV restriction rather than the LTI.

    In that scenario, they only need a 290k mortgage. But I get what you're saying, the drop in value can affect their ability to afford the new house due to the loss of equity being used as a deposit.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15 Beheretomorrow


    Another international data point. We're in a global interconnected economy. I believe this stuff matters.

    65 million apartments—over 20% of all residences in Chinese cities—are unoccupied.

    Particularly not good when housing, construction, and related industries is 1/3 of economic growth.

    Source: Ian Bremmer Twitter


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    65 million apartments—over 20% of all residences in Chinese cities—are unoccupied.

    Interesting.

    What influence do you expect that to have on the Irish property market in the coming year?

    What parallels can you draw between the two property markets?


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,224 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    Graham wrote: »
    Interesting.

    What influence do you expect that to have on the Irish property market in the coming year?

    What parallels can you draw between the two property markets?


    I wonder is there much commonality between investor bases in both markets? IE is there likely to be a capital flight from Irish property to chinese property? I wouldn't have thought so to be honest.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,171 ✭✭✭dor843088


    Graham wrote: »
    Interesting.

    What influence do you expect that to have on the Irish property market in the coming year?

    What parallels can you draw between the two property markets?

    Same question may have been asked about the american market in 2006 2007. It's easy to answer that now. China being a huge economic powerhouse and deeply embedded with the US I think a large economic shock to China would be deeply felt around the world . And it sounds as if things are definitely not quite right in asian markets right now among many other seemingly uncorrelated markets.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 133 ✭✭CalRobert


    Zenify wrote: »
    Donegal is an extreme. Most parts of country is commutable to Dublin or even another another big city, Limerick, Cork etc. Not an example that would represent most cases IMO.


    There are some places that can just about commute to two job markets (but only just) Athlone to Dublin or Galway, for instance, or Carlow to Dublin or Waterford. I don't see anywhere practical for Dublin and Cork though, which would probably give you the most options.



    I think of an hour on a train one way as my max reasonable commute. Shorter is better, of course. I know others who have tolerated longer commutes out of necessity (Belfast to Dublin comes to mine) but dammit life is too short.



    Obviously it depends on a few things - annoyingly it's easiest to get to Heuston but the jobs are near Connolly, and Waterford probably has 1/20th as many jobs as Dublin, but it gives some resilience. I nearly moved to Waterford, actually - seems like a nice place and the Greenway is heavenly.




    commutes2.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,933 ✭✭✭smurgen


    German industrial figures down since the first time since 2008. 4,600 laid off at Jaguar/Rover in the U.K and new car demands in China down for the first time in 20 years. I think the signs of recession have arrived.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,224 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    smurgen wrote: »
    German industrial figures down since the first time since 2008. 4,600 laid off at Jaguar/Rover in the U.K and new car demands in China down for the first time in 20 years. I think the signs of recession have arrived.


    The JLR layoffs were attributable to Brexit.
    Not familiar enough to make a comment on China but if it's including imported new cars it may be reflecting tariff impacts

    This is not a recession.


  • Posts: 7,499 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]



    65 million apartments—over 20% of all residences in Chinese cities—are unoccupied.

    I wonder could I buy one and have it shipped over.
    Or commute might be cheaper


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    On cars and China, it is worth mentioning that increasing car ownership has been a plague for many large cities there (traffic jams and air pollution) and many local governments have gradually been introducing restrictive policies on car ownership/usage in their cities to tackle the issue. This can be as simple and drastic as introducing hard quotas for new cars sale/registration each year within the city, combined to fairly low limits on how many days per year cars registered elsewhere can be used within the city (and being China they have no problem monitoring cars usage and enforcing these rules with a dense network of video cameras on the streets plugged onto automated picture analysis technology to make full use of the footage).

    So specifically on cars demand in China, I wouldn’t read to much more into it than governement policies having their intended effect.

    (it probably wouldn’t make sense here, but to be clear on what it means: if Dublin, Cork and Galway were to introduce quotas for car sales/reg within their county equal to 80% of last year’s sales, and at the same time to enforce a policy saying that cars registered outside the county can’t be used within that county more that 50 days per year, car sales in Ireland would probably drop as well and not because of economic reasons)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Zenify


    ELM327 wrote: »

    The JLR layoffs were attributable to Brexit.
    Not familiar enough to make a comment on China but if it's including imported new cars it may be reflecting tariff impacts

    This is not a recession.

    New car sales are down in Ireland too due to brexit.

    I remember I was working for a company in 2010 and all our deliveries got delayed due to the "big freeze". It really did have a negative effect on the business but we sure got a lot of mileage from blaming that snow. Went on for months afterwards.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,224 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    Zenify wrote: »
    New car sales are down in Ireland too due to brexit.

    I remember I was working for a company in 2010 and all our deliveries got delayed due to the "big freeze". It really did have a negative effect on the business but we sure got a lot of mileage from blaming that snow. Went on for months afterwards.
    new car sales down in ireland?

    They are down due to imports of 6-18 month old cars from the UK!


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,979 ✭✭✭✭Cuddlesworth


    Zenify wrote: »
    New car sales are down in Ireland too due to brexit.

    I remember I was working for a company in 2010 and all our deliveries got delayed due to the "big freeze". It really did have a negative effect on the business but we sure got a lot of mileage from blaming that snow. Went on for months afterwards.

    Company I work for and companies I work with all initiated hire freezes in the uk and have actively not been replacing staff in country for well over a year. Those jobs have gone to Eastern Europe. Datacenter refresh projects moved to migrations out of the country instead. England is going to be hurting over this for a long time but its going to take a few years before the overall impact is really being felt.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,933 ✭✭✭smurgen


    ELM327 wrote: »
    smurgen wrote: »
    German industrial figures down since the first time since 2008. 4,600 laid off at Jaguar/Rover in the U.K and new car demands in China down for the first time in 20 years. I think the signs of recession have arrived.


    The JLR layoffs were attributable to Brexit.
    Not familiar enough to make a comment on China but if it's including imported new cars it may be reflecting tariff impacts

    This is not a recession.

    And the German industrial figures?


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Just me or is there an increasing number of companies going bankrupt?

    I think yesterday I saw the 9th small medium utilities company going bust this year?

    Car companies slashing jobs (due to reduction in car use really so not surprising), Apple figures slashed due to China, Macys down 18% due to poor holiday sales.

    I'm not surprised about bricks and mortar stores but if Q1 earnings for the tech companies has many missed targets or poor returns, that'll be a real sign.


  • Administrators Posts: 53,127 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    smurgen wrote: »
    German industrial figures down since the first time since 2008. 4,600 laid off at Jaguar/Rover in the U.K and new car demands in China down for the first time in 20 years. I think the signs of recession have arrived.
    Eventually you'll be right.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭coolshannagh28


    The Irish economy started to slow down around May 18


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,993 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    smurgen wrote: »
    German industrial figures down since the first time since 2008. 4,600 laid off at Jaguar/Rover in the U.K and new car demands in China down for the first time in 20 years. I think the signs of recession have arrived.

    The yield curve is suggesting a recession is coming to the US in late 2019 or 2020.

    http://econbrowser.com/archives/2018/12/yield-curve-inversions


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,933 ✭✭✭smurgen


    awec wrote: »
    smurgen wrote: »
    German industrial figures down since the first time since 2008. 4,600 laid off at Jaguar/Rover in the U.K and new car demands in China down for the first time in 20 years. I think the signs of recession have arrived.
    Eventually you'll be right.


    Fantastic contribution.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,042 ✭✭✭ Peter Muscular Quirk


    Since we're talking about financial indicators, I heard that around Christmas there was a very unusual indicator thrown up on the s and p curve. Apparently this has happened 16 times in the past, and every time the market has grown 25% in the following year. I know that's about as vague as it gets, I'll try dig out the actual name of the thing. But it could equally indicate a good year ahead.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 419 ✭✭mkdon


    The Irish economy started to slow down around May 18

    says who?


  • Registered Users Posts: 419 ✭✭mkdon


    Some predictions.
    Q1 will see the continuation of the slowdown in the upper edges of the market here.
    Q2 will see a slight slowdown in the market increases overall, supply will increase in Q3.
    I expect an international recession to hit end of 2019 to impact the market further.

    what's the basis for this predicition


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,171 ✭✭✭dor843088


    mkdon wrote: »
    what's the basis for this predicition

    I think I am right in saying that you have just bought or are buying a property currently. I assume this is why you are jumping on anyone who has anything negative to say about the property market. Property is at the upper limits of affordability . Either wages are going to start climbing significantly or property prices will go down. We're too much of an open economy to have long term stability especially at the upper limits of affordability. This is based on common sense .


  • Registered Users Posts: 419 ✭✭mkdon


    dor843088 wrote: »
    I think I am right in saying that you have just bought or are buying a property currently. I assume this is why you are jumping on anyone who has anything negative to say about the property market. Property is at the upper limits of affordability . Either wages are going to start climbing significantly or property prices will go down. We're too much of an open economy to have long term stability especially at the upper limits of affordability. This is based on common sense .

    think you are jumping to conclusions and

    was asking where your opinion was coming from

    nothing concrete it seems


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,171 ✭✭✭dor843088


    mkdon wrote: »
    think you are jumping to conclusions and

    was asking where your opinion was coming from

    nothing concrete it seems

    It wasn't me you asked .


  • Registered Users Posts: 419 ✭✭mkdon


    dor843088 wrote: »
    It wasn't me you asked .

    excellent contribution 😅


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Mod Note

    While we're critiquing contributions, it's only fair to point out that some of the most recent posts are way below the standard expected here in A & P.

    Yet more posts belong in the economics forum more than A & P.

    Please up the standards.

    So....

    Welcome to the accommodation & property thread discussing the Property Market 2019. :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,502 ✭✭✭ Rex Disgusting Tariff


    dor843088 wrote: »
    I think I am right in saying that you have just bought or are buying a property currently. I assume this is why you are jumping on anyone who has anything negative to say about the property market. Property is at the upper limits of affordability . Either wages are going to start climbing significantly or property prices will go down. We're too much of an open economy to have long term stability especially at the upper limits of affordability. This is based on common sense .

    Affordability is really only an issue in the capital though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,171 ✭✭✭dor843088


    Affordability is really only an issue in the capital though.

    To be honest I agree with you. But it seems many don't. Apparently we have a housing crisis and a homelessness crisis. I'd probably be homeless myself if I'd rather be on the streets or in emergency accommodation than live too far from my mammy.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,228 ✭✭✭BBFAN


    Affordability is really only an issue in the capital though.

    I disagree that affordability is only an issue in the capital. I live next to the Cork/Tipperary border and pay rent of 650, would love to move closer to Cork but the cheapest available is 850 and those cheapest ones are absolute kips.

    To get a decent place you're talking 1000, for a single person that's purely unaffordable.


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