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Stratosphere watch 2018/19

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,976 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    The warming starts at day 12, this chart is from day 16 though.

    ygUQe3k.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen




  • Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    This is the first time the FV3 has shown a stratosphere warming anywhere close to what the operational has shown. It's always been intense heating on the operational and a huge downgrade on the FV3. I'd say this is a massive development, FI or not.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Both the operational and parallel GFS 0z and 06z continue to show this significant strat warming just before Christmas (it has not backtracked to Christmas Eve, it remains on December 22nd/23rd), whether it's a SSW is yet to be revealed. Nevertheless, a significant warming as such will put a ton of pressure on the Polar Vortex and a big increase in the chance of northern blocking sometime towards the New Year.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen




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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    So the operational GFS is showing the warming event receding fairly quickly after it peaks, but the FV3..... Ooooh laa laaaaaa :D

    gfsnh-10-384.png?0

    bis3x9C.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,976 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    This is when the warming peaks on the GFS 6z. It cools down at the end to -20c though (still pretty warm).

    OPCKw4s.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    This is when the warming peaks on the GFS 6z. It cools down at the end to -20c though (still pretty warm).

    Pretty warm is quite an understatement (remember the strat temps at 10hPa at this time of year should be around -70 to -75c) especially as the warm strat temps are infiltrating into the pole - this is what we want to see. 3-4 more days until the warming period comes into view on the ECM then we can start to see if the model agrees with the GFS and if the zonal winds will reverse on the model too.

    kqOAfDu.png

    No reversal signal on the GEFS..... yet.

    cREQ2pw.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    00z GFS(P) has it getting very toasty in the Strat, up to +8c.

    gfsnh-10-324.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    What did I say yesterday? :)

    v0Dn8Kc.jpg


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    That's more like it! :cool:

    Is this the trend setter? I do hope so...

    467855.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen




  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Here's a GIF of the zonal wind speeds of previous Winters in the satellite era which contained either at least one notably cold month, a notably cold spell or a notably snowy spell.

    See how some of them do not have a SSW event at all or even get the zonal winds to very weak levels, most notably Winter 1985-86.

    j8REMxF.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,780 ✭✭✭jamo2oo9


    ELI5 - what does it mean when the zonal winds go down below 0?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    That's more like it! :cool:

    Is this the trend setter? I do hope so...

    467855.jpg


    We have more members heading down now -

    u_65N_10hpa_gefs.png

    60N

    epsmean10hPa60N.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    jamo2oo9 wrote: »
    ELI5 - what does it mean when the zonal winds go down below 0?

    In short - It means that the normal direction the winds travel in at the stated height in the stratosphere essentially 'reverse' - the warming itself is normally caused by rossby wave events propogating up from the troposphere, these then reverse the polar strat jet (in the case of Major warmings) and then we see a reversal of our normal wind direction on the ground as the effect essentialy returns back down into the trop weather patterns, i.e everything flows from east to west rather than west to east- Greatly increasing the chances of colder weather arriving to Ireland.

    There are many levels of warmings and potential affects (i.e displaced or split vortex) - what we ideally want to give us the best shot at a cold pattern is a split vortex due to a major warming. A split isn't currently forcast yet but a major warming is- wave 2 is looking more and more likely to deliver the hammer blow in the coming weeks.

    Roughly 2/3 Split vortex events lead to a cold pattern over NW europe. Its a lot more of a roll of the dice if we only manage a displaced vortex, it then entirely depends on where it displaces to.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen




  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen




  • Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    Major upgrade by the FV3 0z tonight, still showing the warming beginning on the 21st / 22nd and for the first time, staying in the red (and even sometimes the dark red!) throughout the entire rest of the run.

    0G6yXBT.gif

    Meanwhile, FI pressure charts for the same period show a serious block appearing in the Atlantic and a potential Easterly for Ireland and the UK - presumably this is too soon to be a direct consequence of the forecasted strat warming, but if it were to verify, with the effects of the strat disruption filtering down as we move towards New Years, we could get very lucky with this:

    pFQyYnz.gif

    As an aside, now that the beginnings of the warming have moved into the purview of the ECM, does anyone know of anywhere one can look at 10 hpa temperature charts from the ECM? Meteociel doesn't have them and every link I've found only shows current analysis of the start at that level, not a forecast out to 240h as with other ECM charts. Does this exist?


  • Registered Users Posts: 200 ✭✭jimmy.d


    Major upgrade by the FV3 0z tonight, still showing the warming beginning on the 21st / 22nd and for the first time, staying in the red (and even sometimes the dark red!) throughout the entire rest of the run.

    0G6yXBT.gif

    Meanwhile, FI pressure charts for the same period show a serious block appearing in the Atlantic and a potential Easterly for Ireland and the UK - presumably this is too soon to be a direct consequence of the forecasted strat warming, but if it were to verify, with the effects of the strat disruption filtering down as we move towards New Years, we could get very lucky with this:

    pFQyYnz.gif

    As an aside, now that the beginnings of the warming have moved into the purview of the ECM, does anyone know of anywhere one can look at 10 hpa temperature charts from the ECM? Meteociel doesn't have them and every link I've found only shows current analysis of the start at that level, not a forecast out to 240h as with other ECM charts. Does this exist?

    Try www.weathercarts.org


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    GEFS now has the zonal wind (@65N, 10hpa) dropping below 0 m/s before the end of the month - thats a reversal

    u_65N_10hpa.png


    Just a comment on the ECM run mentioned above, the GFS para and ECM day 10 charts are not all that far apart...


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Major upgrade by the FV3 0z tonight, still showing the warming beginning on the 21st / 22nd and for the first time, staying in the red (and even sometimes the dark red!) throughout the entire rest of the run.

    Meanwhile, FI pressure charts for the same period show a serious block appearing in the Atlantic and a potential Easterly for Ireland and the UK - presumably this is too soon to be a direct consequence of the forecasted strat warming, but if it were to verify, with the effects of the strat disruption filtering down as we move towards New Years, we could get very lucky with this:

    As an aside, now that the beginnings of the warming have moved into the purview of the ECM, does anyone know of anywhere one can look at 10 hpa temperature charts from the ECM? Meteociel doesn't have them and every link I've found only shows current analysis of the start at that level, not a forecast out to 240h as with other ECM charts. Does this exist?

    University of Berlin. Simply search up University of Berlin ECM strat and you’ll find each of the forecast charts - also the wind/fluxes chart that I posted in a tweet here.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1072883878300475393

    DuOmJ5kXQAARV_t?format=jpg&name=900x900

    The red colours on far right of the this representing the warming propagating down towards the Troposphere


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Good agreement here still today, mean doesn't show quite as sharp a drop but thats normal variation, a few more extreme gefs members appearing also - as you were all things considered.

    u_65N_10hpa.png

    u_65N_10hpa_gefs.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,976 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    GFS Para is really going for an extreme stratospheric warming, up to 12c in the stratosphere!! And it's "only" 11 days away ie. not stuck at the perpetual 16 days.

    WJM5u1f.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    In further response from the above tweet I posted which is of the UKMO Glosea5 showing this SSW event being similar to that of 2012-13 (which culminated in the coldest March since at least 1962), it goes onto show this stratospheric warming becoming a split at latter dates similar to 2012-13. Here's a GIF of reanalysed charts of how the 2012-13 warming evolved. Note at first it was a displacement before becoming a split and an obliteration of the Polar Vortex.

    n64UT40.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    GFS 18z really going IN on the second warming displacing the Polar Vortex further to North America. Still no sign of a split on the model.

    DL0eZz4.gif


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    GFS 18z really going IN on the second warming displacing the Polar Vortex further to North America. Still no sign of a split on the model.

    DL0eZz4.gif

    If this were to happen would it power up the Jet stream and continue to throw low pressure systems in our general direction?


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