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18-07-2020, 01:53   #46
John O.Groats
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Going on previous year`s weather patterns August will likely be another write off as far as any prolonged settled spell of weather is concerned. September may possibly bring something better.
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18-07-2020, 10:35   #47
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What's the weather currently looking like for th4 August Bank holiday weekend. We have our staycation planned for then and would like to know if is it looking wet at the moment? Cool and dry suits me fine but constant rain will make me rethink.
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18-07-2020, 13:22   #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sammy2012 View Post
What's the weather currently looking like for th4 August Bank holiday weekend. We have our staycation planned for then and would like to know if is it looking wet at the moment? Cool and dry suits me fine but constant rain will make me rethink.
The August bank holiday weekend is looking more of the same, rain or showers with unsettled conditions, but that's a long way off at the very extended range of FI and may change before then.
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21-07-2020, 13:08   #49
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After a few dry and bright days big changes are on the way to something much more unsettled. It is looking particularly wet and cool next week and we may end July on a very wet note.

Start of August looks more of the same, staying on the wet and cool side with no real sign of any warmth or dry spells for the foreseeable future. Temperatures between 1 and 2 degree's below average for the next 7 to 10 days. We may see things drying out a bit as we head into the 1st week of August, but still looks remaining mixed with temperatures remaining below average into the 1st and possibly second week of August.

Latest GFS ensembles look generally cool and wet with no shortage of rainfall.



Charts generally look unsettled most days including the bank holiday weekend.



Plenty of rain over the next 7 days with up to 60mm in places with all areas of the country seeing bands of rain at times and frequent showers, looks a bit dryer towards the south with less in the way of rainfall compared to the northern half of the country.



Temperatures generally between 12 and 20C over the next 14 days with best chance of high teens across the south and east during dry and sunny interludes.

ECM keeps it cool and unsettled too particularly the final week of July into the first few days of August.





It's not just Ireland that will have cool and unsettled weather, this cool and unsettled remains for the UK, northern Germany and much of Scandinavia as well.
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21-07-2020, 20:25   #50
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The mixed bag and cooler than average theme continues from the 12Z ECM, possibly a few decent enough days in there but rain never far away. The Low pressure at the end of the run if it tracked like that could produce heavy thundery rain coming in from the SW , but of course that is an age away or may never happen being so far out .

Temperatures look like being in the mid to high teens maybe touching 20 ish range past +120hrs, best in the S, SE and E it would seem at this stage.

Seems like a long time since we had some notable weather event to follow.








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21-07-2020, 23:53   #51
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Looking at the charts we have an unsettled weekend in store before a possible improvement during next week, jet stream forecast showing a weak 2-3 day ridge allowing high pressure across the south of the country before a low system moves in towards the bank holiday weekend
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22-07-2020, 10:14   #52
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Yeah nothing great but even though its mixed the good thing about mixed is there are also days that are nice. Like last Sunday was lovely and sunny and there will probably some of those days where they forecast isolated showers that will be dry throughout. I can live with that. What I cant live with is what the first 15 days of July gave us. Mist rain darkness wind and 12 to 14c.

At least temperatures these days are 17 or 18c even in the mucky Northwest.
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22-07-2020, 21:37   #53
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ECM 12Z on Steroids this evening. Showing some active weather systems and very high rainfall totals coming in from the SW dragging up warm and very moist air from the Tropics and running into colder air mass over Ireland. Showing big fluctuations in colder and warmer air mass with some fairly high potential of Thunderstorms and heavy rain at times I reckon. Bit windy also at times but nothing severe showing up . Some of the systems look slow moving so could drop large amounts of rainfall especially over higher terrain. The Jet staying on the wrong side of us. GFS not as severe as the ECM. Gonzo has mentioned the GEM model as being quite accurate over the last few months, it is quite similar to the ECM Thurs / Fri next week with a big slow moving LP system moving up over us.







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23-07-2020, 20:33   #54
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Perhaps of interest... it is now confirmed, thanks to a recent study, that the pandemic had a major impact on NWP and forecasting.

https://twitter.com/DrPaulDWilliams/...791630337?s=20
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23-07-2020, 23:29   #55
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ECM 0Z went on to show a stronger Hp over Ireland around next Thurs / Fri keeping out some of the Atlantic weather and giving less rainfall but this evenings run shows the previous modeled Lp system making more inroads again later Thurs / Fri but with a lot less rainfall those days. Not showing as high rainfall totals as yesterdays run but still quite wet at times more so up until midweek .

Interesting tweet above, been a frustrating time these last few months trying to get a handle on forecasts , even trying to get a trend at times is difficult, there has been some very big swings in forecasts even in the short term but the observing will go on !

On a personal level will be watching out for the August Bank Holiday week.

Currently nothing inspiring from the GFS . ECM just might let the Azores Hp ridge up over us ???




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24-07-2020, 20:17   #56
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ECM holding the weather pattern for next week into the weekend with little deviation the last couple of runs, on the cooler side in general with one or two warm days in there maybe. Not looking great at the moment for the Long weekend especially for the Western side of the country. Looks fairly dry mid week






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25-07-2020, 14:28   #57
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Serious disagreement between the GFS and ECM for the long weekend now, with the GFS building a lovely ridge over us towards the end of this week and blocking the Atlantic low:



The ECM, on the other hand, allows the jet to push the ridge away and the low then dominates the weekend:



Normally I'd resignedly defer to the ECM, but with all the forecasting uncertainty so far this year I'm still holding out hope for a warm and dry bank holiday
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25-07-2020, 15:41   #58
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I'm a GFS guy myself. Seriously it's the hope that kills.
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25-07-2020, 17:51   #59
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12z GFS doesn't bring as much of a ridge but still has the jet further north over next weekend, making settled and warm conditions a lot more likely than this morning's ECM. Will be interesting to see, if the two models remain in disagreement for the next day or two, which one eventually comes out on top.
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26-07-2020, 13:09   #60
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July has been another poor summer month, aside from the 4 day dry spell last week it has mostly been unsettled and often on the cool side. How does the final week of July and first week of August look?

Everything still looks fairly unsettled, however we are starting to see a trend towards warmer and cooler interludes rather than remaining in the mid to upper teens most of the time. Rainfall is beginning to look slightly less than it did, but still mixed. The opening 10 days of July have in my opinion been the worst part of summer so far and it doesn't look like the next 2 weeks will be as bad as that.

Tomorrow looks like a poor day with an area of low pressure and plenty of heavy rain or showers across the country with some spot flooding likely in places. 20 to 35mm of rain is likely, especially across the west and north but heavy rain in all areas. Heaviest of the rain will be overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning but it should clear off as the day goes on. Temperatures tomorrow only 10 or 11C in the very far north to 17 or 18C across the south and south-east.

Once we get tomorrow out of the way, the rest of the week is looking much drier particularly for eastern and southern areas. Showers still likely across the west and north at times throughout the week.

Tuesday and Wednesday see's things drying out however showers still possible in the north-west at times. Temperatures around average or a little below ranging 12 to 19C, warmest across the south. A fair deal of cloud but should be some sunny breaks at times. Wednesday will be the dryer of the two days with most places staying dry throughout Wednesday. However a spell of rain is likely to cross the country Wednesday night.

Thursday see's a mostly dry and at times sunny day across the eastern and southern areas. Temperatures will begin to lift up between 18 and 21C in many places, especially across the east, south and midlands. Thursday should remain mostly dry but there is the threat of a rain band edging into western areas, how far inland that get's remains to be seen and temperatures will lower in areas affected by the rainfall.

Friday is likely to be wet across western and northern areas although this could turn rather patchy as it makes it's way eastwards. Staying dry for much of Friday across the east and south and if sunny spells occur it could turn fairly warm with temperatures reaching possibly 23C or 24C across parts of Leinster and the south-east if decent spells of sunshine occur. Temperatures elsewhere mid to high teens with the lower values in the more cloudy and wet areas.

Outlook:
Cooler from the weekend but remaining mostly mild and staying rather mixed. Temperatures generally 16 to 21C. There is the possibility that the air may become more unstable with some warm uppers mixing in with unsettled conditions as warmth will try to move in from the south at times during the first 2 weeks of August. This could lead to thunderstorm activity if the right conditions are meet. The beginning of August does look mixed with fairly average temperatures and regular rainfall, however some warm or very warm days are possible but these would be very brief and potentially unstable if they happen.
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