Thanks guys, it's great to know that all our weather updates and posts are appreciated. The main reason we all put time into posting about the weather and looking into the crystal ball of fantasy island is because we love to talk about the weather, it is interesting and challenging to try and predict it at the best of times. We are not always right, and sometimes we are even guided by incorrect or poorly performing models but as ever the weather is always a learning process due to how unpredictable it can become.
Latest updates I have today are a little bit more promising than what we've seen over the past 2 to 3 weeks. We are now beginning to see a slowly improving situation with our weather, however it does not look like it will completely settle down any time soon, more of an improving signal from atrocious conditions to something approaching normal Irish summer weather. This improving scene may only last a week before we go back to a very unsettled scene once again.
For now we have seen an end to the daily 12+ hour rain events which have frequently brought very wet conditions, particularly to some northern, north-western and eastern areas since the last week of June and the first week of July.
will be much dryer than of late and temperatures will improve a bit too. A ridge from the Azores tries to get going over Ireland this weekend on Saturday and into Sunday.
Temperatures generally 16 to 21C away from the north-west where it will remain slightly cooler with showery bits of rain or drizzle at times over the weekend, temperatures there about 13 or 14C but rain shouldn't be anywhere nearly as heavy as recent times.
could be quite warm in the east and south with temperatures up to 21 or 22C in places, particularly if there are decent spells of sunshine. It will be cooler and more cloudy towards the west and north with showery rain at times as low pressure from the north-west introduces much fresher conditions there.
by Tuesday we may start to lose influence from that azores ridge and it begins to push back into the middle of the Atlantic and the flat westerly continues over us with a cool and possibly showery airflow. Over the next few days it will remain cool with showery outbreaks of rain particularly in western and northern areas with the south and east staying dryer and warmer generally, but showers can break out just about anywhere. Temperatures midweek generally in the 14 to 18C range with perhaps low 20's still possible in some eastern and southern areas if there are decent sunny breaks, otherwise high teens most likely there.
By next weekend there is a trend towards things turning much more unsettled once again with proper northern blocking likely to get going over Greenland. This may start to send a series of low pressures or dartboard lows our way from the very Northern parts of the Atlantic introducing possibly cooler and wetter conditions.
Next week looks very unsettled and quite cool too with winds possibly going into the north and pulling down showery outbreaks of rain and temperatures back to the low to mid teens once again. The GFS looks particularly grim from next weekend with the jet stream heading back south again with plenty of unsettled and cool and autumnal conditions. However that is all a week away so fingers crossed the GFS is overplaying it.
Overall the next week is an improvement with some light showery rain possible in the west and north at times and dryer elsewhere. Temperatures should get to the high teens at times over the next week, maybe touching 20C or 21C in spells of sunshine. It won't be completely dry as showers or drizzly rain can happen anywhere, but gone are the day long deluges of recent weeks. The next week may be a good time to try and get some gardening done and the lawns cut to take advantage of any dry and sunny weather that gets going. This is not BBQ/garden beers weather, just average Irish summer weather.
We do appear to go back to a cool and unsettled theme with plenty of rain from next weekend and into the following week. Depending on how aggressive the northern blocking becomes, it could provide us with a very cool and unsettled end of July and beginning to August, but for now that remains to be seen.