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09-07-2020, 10:28   #16
sparrowcar
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Farmer here also and what I do is very weather dependent and I'd rarely bother looking at met eireann, I find the information here much more accurate and detailed, so personally I'm very appreciative of the guys help here.
No doubt and I agree about the excellent accuracy in here.
Just the expectation needs to be kept in check, especially when the previous poster is asking to be kept up to date as if its his personal weather service. The regular experts here have full time jobs and Iives going on too.
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09-07-2020, 11:29   #17
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Yes definitely agree.

Im no farmer and though I forecast here I mainly just comment. Gonzo, MTC and those guys much much better than Met Eireann who dont even get tomorrow right in my location.

The only reason I use Met Eireann is for current temperatures, yesterdays weather and climate data. Any forecasts are too generalised.

e.g Mist and drizzle almost anywhere

On boards Gonzo gives you the rain measurement in mm in the charts for the next week!
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09-07-2020, 13:16   #18
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If I was you I would stick to Met Eireann forecasts for a decision on your hay. The guys on here are not full time and technically thry are amateur forecasters. Although some are brilliant forecasters (in my opinion) they also have other lives away from this forum. You can't expect them keep you posted as you put it, especially as its your livelihood.

Hopefully you get the window you're looking for to get the hay in.
I'm in a full time job with a very small hobby on the side that costs money as opposed to making money. I am interested in the technical aspects of the forecasts, hence the questions I sometimes ask. You shouldn't assume there is some money making agenda behind the expectation of updates as you put it. Everyone has their own reasons behind checking the weather. Be it a family birthday, a barbecue, a holiday or a field of hay for that matter. This is a superb thread for a multitude of reasons.. I prefer it to Met Eireann. So I base my judgements here as much as the Met.
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09-07-2020, 13:20   #19
eon1208
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No doubt and I agree about the excellent accuracy in here.
Just the expectation needs to be kept in check, especially when the previous poster is asking to be kept up to date as if its his personal weather service. The regular experts here have full time jobs and Iives going on too.
I apologise if it sounded like that. There is not even an iota of expectation on my part. I was surprised to see your comment after an intense mornings work. This site is nobody's personal weather service. How you can even think that, the mind boggles.
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09-07-2020, 14:31   #20
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I apologise if it sounded like that. There is not even an iota of expectation on my part. I was surprised to see your comment after an intense mornings work. This site is nobody's personal weather service. How you can even think that, the mind boggles.
How I came to that thought was when you post comments like "keep us posted Gonzo" as you have done a few times now it suggests you have an expectation of Gonzo. The rest of us are happy to wait for Gonzo to post in his own time.

Anyway waaay off topic now. Prob just a misunderstanding. Apologies for any assumptions on my behalf.
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09-07-2020, 17:59   #21
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Thanks guys, it's great to know that all our weather updates and posts are appreciated. The main reason we all put time into posting about the weather and looking into the crystal ball of fantasy island is because we love to talk about the weather, it is interesting and challenging to try and predict it at the best of times. We are not always right, and sometimes we are even guided by incorrect or poorly performing models but as ever the weather is always a learning process due to how unpredictable it can become.

Latest updates I have today are a little bit more promising than what we've seen over the past 2 to 3 weeks. We are now beginning to see a slowly improving situation with our weather, however it does not look like it will completely settle down any time soon, more of an improving signal from atrocious conditions to something approaching normal Irish summer weather. This improving scene may only last a week before we go back to a very unsettled scene once again.

For now we have seen an end to the daily 12+ hour rain events which have frequently brought very wet conditions, particularly to some northern, north-western and eastern areas since the last week of June and the first week of July.

This weekend will be much dryer than of late and temperatures will improve a bit too. A ridge from the Azores tries to get going over Ireland this weekend on Saturday and into Sunday.

Temperatures generally 16 to 21C away from the north-west where it will remain slightly cooler with showery bits of rain or drizzle at times over the weekend, temperatures there about 13 or 14C but rain shouldn't be anywhere nearly as heavy as recent times.



Monday could be quite warm in the east and south with temperatures up to 21 or 22C in places, particularly if there are decent spells of sunshine. It will be cooler and more cloudy towards the west and north with showery rain at times as low pressure from the north-west introduces much fresher conditions there.

midweek by Tuesday we may start to lose influence from that azores ridge and it begins to push back into the middle of the Atlantic and the flat westerly continues over us with a cool and possibly showery airflow. Over the next few days it will remain cool with showery outbreaks of rain particularly in western and northern areas with the south and east staying dryer and warmer generally, but showers can break out just about anywhere. Temperatures midweek generally in the 14 to 18C range with perhaps low 20's still possible in some eastern and southern areas if there are decent sunny breaks, otherwise high teens most likely there.



Next Weekend: By next weekend there is a trend towards things turning much more unsettled once again with proper northern blocking likely to get going over Greenland. This may start to send a series of low pressures or dartboard lows our way from the very Northern parts of the Atlantic introducing possibly cooler and wetter conditions.



Next week looks very unsettled and quite cool too with winds possibly going into the north and pulling down showery outbreaks of rain and temperatures back to the low to mid teens once again. The GFS looks particularly grim from next weekend with the jet stream heading back south again with plenty of unsettled and cool and autumnal conditions. However that is all a week away so fingers crossed the GFS is overplaying it.





Overall the next week is an improvement with some light showery rain possible in the west and north at times and dryer elsewhere. Temperatures should get to the high teens at times over the next week, maybe touching 20C or 21C in spells of sunshine. It won't be completely dry as showers or drizzly rain can happen anywhere, but gone are the day long deluges of recent weeks. The next week may be a good time to try and get some gardening done and the lawns cut to take advantage of any dry and sunny weather that gets going. This is not BBQ/garden beers weather, just average Irish summer weather.

We do appear to go back to a cool and unsettled theme with plenty of rain from next weekend and into the following week. Depending on how aggressive the northern blocking becomes, it could provide us with a very cool and unsettled end of July and beginning to August, but for now that remains to be seen.
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09-07-2020, 20:53   #22
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Mixed Irish summer weather indeed. From +120hrs now looking on the cooler than average side by the ECM 12Z, but could get some nice sunny bright days like today with low humidity. Good sleeping weather anyway

Warmest away from the NW, W and SW from +120hrs it would seem with a lot of NW'lys

FI very unpredictable and unreliable recently, any promising charts have played out very average if not poorly in the end, only the unsettled weather predictions seem to materialize.

End of this run looks better from the ECM but unsettled and cooler by the GFS.














Last edited by Meteorite58; 09-07-2020 at 20:56.
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09-07-2020, 21:32   #23
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even since I made this afternoon's post it's trending more unsettled and cooler. That recent ECM has now fallen in line with the very cool and unsettled GFS, not good at all.

I think the highest temperature we have seen this July is 20C. The way this July is heading we will be lucky to see anywhere in the country reach 22 or 23C.

The past 2 to 3 weeks have easily been the coldest temperature anomaly we've had since 1st of January 2020. Up to this month, the year has basically been warmer than average every month. July looks like it is already well on it's way to being a cooler or significantly cooler than average month. Temperatures in Dunsany are not far off 2C below the monthly average. If the outlook of the next 2 weeks verifies, we are going to need one hell of a scotching final week of July to turn that anomaly around.
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09-07-2020, 21:56   #24
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Why do we always have to see those beautiful yellows and oranges over Greenland in the middle of the feckin' Summer after getting nothing but PV sh!te all Winter, when they could have actually given us some epic winter spells?

(By always, I really just mean this year and last year. But still. Feck's sake.)
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09-07-2020, 22:50   #25
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And it's St Swithin's Day next Wednesday.... The summer is fvcked lads!
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10-07-2020, 07:23   #26
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Dont write it off yet.

July is just fvcked bar 24th which is my kids birthday and always seems hot
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10-07-2020, 07:59   #27
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Dont write it off yet.

July is just fvcked bar 24th which is my kids birthday and always seems hot
Yea. My comment is obviously tongue in cheek, but wondering it there is in the opinion of the experts here any relationship between the old wives tale and actual science. I've read before that the jat stream patterns in mud July tend to stay in place through August into September, and I'm wondering if this is generally accurate in the experts opinion.
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10-07-2020, 19:20   #28
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alot of doom and gloom recently with the models. Lots of weather fans here and in the UK really getting fed up with this summer already.

Just when we think we are now on track for a cold and wet continuation of July the GEM decides to have a laugh.

The GEM has performed very well over the past 2 months, but i'm not so sure they are right about this forecast as it is a total and utter flip. The GEM has had weeks of unsettled runs and now they have this all of a sudden.

Like all other models the GEM brings in a slight ridge this weekend and early next week with temperatures close enough to normal, but from Wednesday the GEM now continues to bring in that Azores and temperatures begin to lift up and take off.



by next weekend the GEM brings +14 to +17 uppers across Ireland. Not sure what to make of this as of right now we can't even get 17C on the ground!

Somehow if this GEM manages to verify temperatures could get close to 28C in places next weekend with close to 30C possible somewhere like Oak Park or Shannon.... I think i'll need to build an extension to hide the pinch of salt.





The GFS brings in some warmth as well for next weekend but kills it off by Monday.



Are the models laughing at us or are the weather Gods beginning to feel a bit sorry for us?

Let's see what the ECM has in store for us as it is beginning to roll out now....
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10-07-2020, 19:54   #29
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ECM in agreement with ICON and UKMO (GEM to some extent too although goes off with a push of warmth highlighted by Gonzo above) for quite an area of high pressure to ascend from Wednesday next. This seemed to be the trend for this exact timeframe around last weekend before ECM and GFS started to go more unsettled then.

I think this is again the result of tropical cyclones causing uncertainty as per usual with the risk of getting caught in the jet stream. Lot more positives this evening if it's warm and dry weather you seek but we're still talking at least 5 days away and with the uncertainty recently, we shall see how it goes.
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10-07-2020, 21:13   #30
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Big flip flop again. If we see this for two more runs then I will kinda believe it could happen.


Far dryer outlook with the latest charts, good enough temperatures and getting quite warm into the mid 20's at the end of the run but we have seen that before haven't we

Who knows, things might be about to change.










Last edited by Meteorite58; 10-07-2020 at 21:16.
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