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01-06-2020, 11:51   #1
Gonzo
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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward.

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

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Summer 2020 is finally here and this is where we like a look a bit further ahead and tease out what is in store for us over the course of 14 days. As always these charts become more unreliable the closer we get to +360 hours. Will the warm and sunny conditions always be 10 days away as we chase the heat throughout the summer? only time will tell.

The following week will be largely dominated by a cool plunge of northerlies, these will affect the majority of Ireland, UK and many parts of western Europe.

This upcoming spell of cool weather looks like it's going to be a stubborn one to shift as it lasts well into the first two weeks of June and could potentially also be at play beyond the extended range of FI.

Monday the 8th of June, temperatures begin to slowly recover slightly as we lose the northerly influence as least for now. Temperatures getting back into the mid to high teens and may reach 20C in a few midland areas.



The Azores high is still anchored out in the Atlantic with cooler air still digging at our heels, the warmer and dryer conditions out to our west doesn't really get here. There may still be some light showers or spells of rain around this time as we struggle to gain influence from the Azores high.

Wednesday 10th of June continues with a cool theme and it may become more unsettled with bands of rain or showers crossing the country from the north.





Still showery as we head towards Friday 12th of June with average temperatures. None of the showers or bands of rain look heavy at this stage. They are nowhere nearly as heavy as the usual low pressures that we frequently get from the Atlantic, but they may enough to spoil the idea of us having any settled weather.

The GFS update seems to be stuck at +252 hours so will update again later.
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01-06-2020, 12:13   #2
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Saturday 13th of June see's a change as we begin to extend the ridge back over us, allowing warmer and more settled conditions to resume.



We finish on Wednesday 17th of June and Summer is back in control as we draw in warm easterlies from a very warm continent.





It looks a bit unstable just to our south, potential for some thundery showers perhaps in southern areas. Over the next week we will see if this return to warm and dry conditions by mid June is something more prolonged or just a brief flirt with warmth. The one thing we don't want to see is the Atlantic getting charged up for another season!
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01-06-2020, 21:06   #3
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Atlantic Strikes Back with the ECM

There are more signs that this very prolonged dry spell is coming to an end in about a week's time. Over the next week we will have some rain in the form of showers, nothing too heavy.

The ECM brings the cold northerly same as the GFS but then starts moving the jetstream north-west to south-east and is opening up the gates to some rather heavy rainfall. The ECM becomes more unsettled and is generally very cool from Wednesday to the end of it's run.

A cold weekend to come with -5C uppers just off the north coast knocking on our door. Those cold northerly winds are really going to bite on Sunday.





From Monday the 8th we get slightly milder but we bring back the westerlies with showers.



We finish on the 11th of June with a big area of low pressure ready to topple in over us with very chilly north-west winds originating from Greenland.





If the ECM verifies we really are heading into a chilly first half of June, this could give last year's cold June a run for it's money.

ECM brings rain everyday from the 7th of June:





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01-06-2020, 21:47   #4
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Those 3 rainfall charts that I posted at the bottom of the above post have already updated and are showing much less rainfall then when I posted them....
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02-06-2020, 00:34   #5
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tonight's GFS still continuing with the warming trend from next week, it will take a while to get back to average temperatures but then the warming just keeps on going right to the end of FI. A few of the runs are really switching on the heat towards the end of the run. This run is also a downgrade overall in terms of rainfall. Much of Europe becoming very warm or hot too.



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07-07-2020, 12:38   #6
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We've had a fairly poor summer so far, it's been cool and unsettled much of the time since June 3rd with only a few days here and there of summer like conditions. The past 2 weeks have been particularly unseasonal and unsettled.

It does appear we are seeing signs of an improving situation into next week and possibly beyond. Nothing all that warm on the horizon but at this stage any settled conditions we get will be most welcome regardless of the temperature.

The ECM warms up a bit and settles down from this weekend. By next Thursday we are dragging in some fairly warm temperatures:





In the middle of July uppers of +10C to +12C should be enough to get some places of mid 20's or possibly slightly higher in decent spells of sunshine.

The models are in a bit of a disagreement about next week, while the ECM looks like bringing back summer from Sunday, the GEM isn't so keen on this, it does get the high pressure going this weekend, but it breaks down very quickly.

The GEM breaks things down as early as Tuesday, only going with 1 to 2 settled days.



GEM finishes with a very cool run by next Friday:


Hopefully the GEM is not right about this, however they have been a decent model this summer and have been proven right more often than the GFS over the past few weeks.

The GFS keeps us mostly settled next week with high pressure near usl but there still may be a chance of some showers at times. GFS also a cooler run than the ECM with temperatures generally high teens to maybe low 20's in a few places.

GFS holds the high pressure till about next Thursday:



By next weekend the GFS has us back into a mixed scene with a flat westerly and the azores ridge just to our south.



Out of the above the ECM would be my preferred choice with higher temperatures and generally more settled. The GEM is the coolest and most unsettled option where the settled conditions never really get a chance. The GFS shows an improving scene with some dry and settled days next week but not exciting either for those who want a prolonged and uninterrupted warm and dry spell.
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08-07-2020, 11:35   #7
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Gonzo.. Monday could be the day that breaks my plans. Met Eireann are giving rain in the Midlands and also MT is giving rain.. Is this rain a cast iron certainty.. Appreciate your follow up..
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08-07-2020, 12:22   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eon1208 View Post
Gonzo.. Monday could be the day that breaks my plans. Met Eireann are giving rain in the Midlands and also MT is giving rain.. Is this rain a cast iron certainty.. Appreciate your follow up..
high pressure is trying to get going from Saturday but there is the possibility that rain or showers could happen on Monday and into Tuesday from a low that could move down through the country before high pressure tries to resume again. Should know over the weekend if this will happen or not.



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08-07-2020, 12:44   #9
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Gonzo... Is that chart saying 0.5mm per hour over 6 hours.. 3mm total aporox
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08-07-2020, 14:18   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eon1208 View Post
Gonzo... Is that chart saying 0.5mm per hour over 6 hours.. 3mm total aporox
that chart is only a basic guide, rain fall looks light enough for Monday and not a deluge. Those charts are often well off the mark to what happens in reality, Monday is still 5 days away so it remains to be seen if we will even have rain on Monday.
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08-07-2020, 22:13   #11
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next week's return to high pressure is pretty much a bust at this stage. We try to get a ridge this weekend but it appears as if it's not going to last more than a couple of hours to maybe 1 day. The Azores is really trying to get going in our direction but the jet stream with it's conveyor belt of lows is constantly spoiling things for us and getting in the way.

As is the way all summer we are so close to drawing in warmer and dryer conditions but the jet-stream is just refusing to get out of the way or move northwards. At this stage a return to a dryer and warmer period could be a bit like the carrot on a stick affect we get in the winter where the cold and snow is always 10 days away and eventually we run out of winter.

ECM is unsettled right to the end of it's run:



UKMO keeps us with the flat westerly for next week:



GEM is generally unsettled next week too.



GFS is now very unsettled for next week with only hints of high pressure returning around the 21st of July but even that looks flimsy.

GFS estimating 30 to 70mm of rain to fall over the coming week to 10 days. Depending on tracking of low pressures this could either upgrade or downgrade.



The wait for dry and settled weather goes on.
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09-07-2020, 07:55   #12
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Thats literally not good. Keep us posted later today for updates Gonzo.
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09-07-2020, 09:06   #13
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The Jet Stream cannot go North as there is a big wedge of High Pressure blocking up there. So we will be in this pattern until that changes which seems likely after about July 20th
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09-07-2020, 09:19   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eon1208 View Post
Thats literally not good. Keep us posted later today for updates Gonzo.
If I was you I would stick to Met Eireann forecasts for a decision on your hay. The guys on here are not full time and technically thry are amateur forecasters. Although some are brilliant forecasters (in my opinion) they also have other lives away from this forum. You can't expect them keep you posted as you put it, especially as its your livelihood.

Hopefully you get the window you're looking for to get the hay in.
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09-07-2020, 10:12   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sparrowcar View Post
If I was you I would stick to Met Eireann forecasts for a decision on your hay. The guys on here are not full time and technically thry are amateur forecasters. Although some are brilliant forecasters (in my opinion) they also have other lives away from this forum. You can't expect them keep you posted as you put it, especially as its your livelihood.

Hopefully you get the window you're looking for to get the hay in.
Farmer here also and what I do is very weather dependent and I'd rarely bother looking at met eireann, I find the information here much more accurate and detailed, so personally I'm very appreciative of the guys help here.
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