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26-07-2020, 20:46   #61
Meteorite58
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Just what you need for a Bank Holiday Weekend !!


Long way off of course, with the way the models have been going lately would want to see this in a number of runs before giving it any notice.


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27-07-2020, 20:30   #62
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That deepening low that was on yesterdays run is much further South on Sun the last two runs and not shown as deep. Generally on the cooler side from +120 hrs with a warm day or so thrown in it would seem. Relatively cool over the Bank Holiday Weekend, around 15 to 18C range, looks showery at times. Most of the rain showing up in the Western half of the country with the old reliable Atlantic seaboard counties soaking up most of it.






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28-07-2020, 20:59   #63
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Bah!



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29-07-2020, 20:27   #64
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Whilst opening period of August looks somewhat changeable, I am thinking a bit more positively now about the end of the first week into the middle third of the month.

ECM 12z is an extreme example that would lead us down to heatwave conditions and possibly our warmest August period since 2003 if it were to verify. The below chart would be conducive to a more prolonged pattern than just anything transient. In fact, I'd say it would be very similar to spring but given the time of year, it'd be much warmer.

Other models not as keen as this but I must say, I am not seeing a washout at all or even the cool/dull signal that has plagued this summer since the end of the June warm period.



An ongoing theme has been that the teleconnections will be more in favour of a warmer, dry period during August compared to what we've seen this summer. I was somewhat skeptical at first due to bias in models but looks like a trend now to me.

I'll update another time on the matter. Don't get bogged down on individual runs at the moment, it's not looking bad
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29-07-2020, 20:56   #65
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We're expecting a breakdown to thunderstorms here in the Med on Monday, which would signal a flip in fortunes, the Azores high building northwards over Ireland. Rule of thumb: when the Mediterranean gets bad, Ireland gets good.
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29-07-2020, 21:13   #66
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Hopefully the charts build on this to something more summer like.







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30-07-2020, 23:26   #67
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The current run might produce warmer spells but rain never far away either. The unsettled theme continues, some short lived dry spells and warmer next Weds to around Saturday but possibly in a Southerly moist humid airflow drawing up air from the tropics, might produce thunderstorms. The Jet never far away either and fairly powered up, could spin in a few small Lows or short waves leading to a few drenching's, a bit windy at times also next week. Just my opinion , in general I think getting milder but probably staying unsettled.














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31-07-2020, 21:30   #68
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the models appear to be going for finally a warmer trend from the middle of next week. As always caution is advised as every attempt at bringing warmer weather to us so far this summer has resulted in either complete failure or a brief 24 hour rise to low level warmth across the east and south.

The GEM in particular really pushing heat across us by next weekend, no doubt southern and eastern parts of the UK will be locked in to this but for us here in Ireland this is very much on a knife-edge and will probably get downgraded as we progress towards mid week with an Atlantic influence always ready to just spoil things for us. We shall see. The GEM has warmth and eventually heat building from next Thursday and lasting past next weekend as far as the run goes on Monday the 10th of August.

GEM looks very tasty for next weekend but I have my doubts for us here in Ireland.



If this verifed we would widely get into the mid 20's, possibly high 20's in a few places.



ECM is similar to the GEM, just not as hot but has warmth brushing up against Ireland with the UK in a very warm or hot scene. It wouldn't take much adjustment for Ireland to be excluded and left with cool Atlantic air.



UKMO goes as far as Wednesday and has warmth building across the UK with Ireland on the very edge of it with cool Atlantic muck just off our western coasts.


GFS doesn't really get the warmth to Ireland with the heat concentrated over southern and eastern UK and Ireland in a moist Atlantic airflow with fairly wet conditions and relatively cool temperatures.



This looks very flimsy especially for us, we will be doing well if we get 2 dry sunny days and temperatures into the high teens to low twenties but we shall see.
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01-08-2020, 17:25   #69
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Models continuing to fiddle around the pattern change with the Scandi High showing its presence big time. The ECM seems to hold the Atlantic trough longer at bay compared to the GFS as the latter shows ridging over the Arctic which will inevitably make things a mess for us.

Latest GFS continues to make more of the Scandi High with a mini upper low giving some rain showers for Ireland but looks very warm and the wind is south of east in nature. Due to the geography of the island, we will always be vulnerable to situations like this but I feel we will have a few more goes of getting this pattern down. When I'm writing this, the GFS has gone out as far as t198 and it looks mainly dry and warm but reverting more to a westerly. It's starting to show some Arctic ridging again which other models just don't seem to show. I also must note that the new GFS parallel recently released - hopefully it's better than last year's questionable "upgrade".

Latest UKMO seems to inflate the Scandi High to extreme heights. I can't say I've seen a pattern like this in August since I started model watching..



The UKMO is very similar to what the GEM has been showing a lot of the time. Funny irony how the latest GEM backs off that idea completely and goes with a plume reverting to westerly!

Our lord, our saviour, the Scandi High.

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01-08-2020, 17:27   #70
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Syran,if u were a betting man how would u rate our chances of actually getting a few dry settled days?
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01-08-2020, 17:48   #71
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Quote:
Originally Posted by giveitholly View Post
Syran,if u were a betting man how would u rate our chances of actually getting a few dry settled days?
I see no reason why to think we won't. The trend has been the Scandi High to become more influential with models, most notably the GFS, underestimating its strength.

I know we have a huge pessimistic viewpoint about August given its modern reputation and the poor summer hasn't helped. I have that bias myself with the thoughts of this turning into another plume kind of warm period rather than an easterly which is required for Ireland to join in the warmth.

However, I'd stick my neck out there and say it's on if I was a betting man with further developments on this pattern to become more easterly. Thankfully I'm not
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01-08-2020, 20:46   #72
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ECM 12z shows less influence from the Scandi High so as a consequence, Ireland is more changeable. I know this is an Irish forum but it's mind boggling and flat out ridiculous that the ECM showed a 37C figure over Cambridgeshire for 9th August and the 20C isotherm is overhead England up to 72 hours! Christ on a bike really. Surely the August and all-time record (the latter sent only in July last year!) would go with risk of 40C too. One of the hottest runs apparently ever seen so likely to be an outlier but my God. What other year but 2020 eh after everything else that has happened?

GFS actually stayed relatively anticyclonic 'til near the end of its run which surprised me.

No models in agreement today with the pattern, similar but all different at the same time.

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02-08-2020, 08:08   #73
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Sryan.
The UK got its 37.8c from a plume that came from central Europe. How would a Scandi high give us good weather. Does it keep the lows away to our west.?
Met Eireann say a high is developing from midweek. Is this your Scandi.?
Like your analysis.
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02-08-2020, 11:24   #74
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eon1208 View Post
Sryan.
The UK got its 37.8c from a plume that came from central Europe. How would a Scandi high give us good weather. Does it keep the lows away to our west.?
Met Eireann say a high is developing from midweek. Is this your Scandi.?
Like your analysis.
Yes, the Scandi High can keep our lows at bay but not a guarantee and a lot of the time, Ireland still behaves as the "battleground" against westerlies from the Atlantic and easterlies from Europe which usually results in the UK's hottest plumes and snowiest days in winter.

Easterly winds, which are driven by the placement of high pressure over Scandinavia, filter in clearer and warmer air from the continent compared to moisture layered, humid southwesterlies if the high pressure is centred over central Europe. This pattern is situational to the time of year with easterlies in summer being very warm to hot although cooler on eastern coasts due to onshore sea breezes. whilst easterlies in winter being cold or at times, exceptionally cold. Our 2018 drought and heatwave was driven by easterly winds and the Scandi High. When the Scandi High left by mid-July, so did our dry, sunny and warm spell with the warmest conditions pushed to the southeast of England as per usual.

Latest forecast from Met Eireann is outlined below:

Quote:
Friday and next weekend: The outlook is uncertain, but early indications suggest that the weather will be unsettled overall, but quite warm.
Which is different again from yesterday and they mention how it is uncertain which refers to all these models playing different things with this Scandi High. The suggestion of the weather being unsettled overall is courtesy of weaker heights over Ireland which would give thundery showers. This morning it does look like that has become a clearer theme. One plume for the UK but staying warm into the second week of August with the risk of thundery showers which may be scattered in nature rather than widespread. Although I must note associated with the plume is one front to the NW.

I would advise against accumulated precipitation charts because they are nearly always over the top and especially in showery scenarios rather than frontal rain.

The charts this morning remind me of mid-June somewhat, rather warm but often unstable. Will keep us on our toes with something to talk about than just nothing for weeks (July ).

If people expect an August 1995, you're setting yourself up for disappointment. Keep those expectations in check please.
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02-08-2020, 12:29   #75
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Ok just going to throw the cat among the pigeons but has anyone any predictions for winter 2020-21. Cold and dry or mild and wet or something in between?
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