Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

1188189191193194236

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 28 July, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 28 July to 3 August 2020

    -- Temperatures will average 1 deg above normal.
    -- Rainfall will average 25% above normal.
    -- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be bright and breezy in most places with isolated showers but quite a few locations should remain dry, trace to 2 mm rainfalls at a few others. Winds northwest 30 to 50 km/hr will ease to light and variable by later afternoon. Highs around 19 or 20 C.

    TONIGHT will see increasing cloud with lows 8 to 11 C.

    WEDNESDAY will become overcast with rain gradually spreading into the south and west, perhaps not reaching some parts of the east until late afternoon. Moderate southeast winds will feel rather cool without much sunshine, and highs only reaching 17 C or thereabouts. Overnight the rain will tend to push further north with isolated thundery showers possible, rather muggy with lows only falling to about 14 C. About 5-10 mm rain in general, 10-15 mm in some parts of west Munster and Connemara, west Ulster.

    THURSDAY will become quite warm and humid with a few sunny breaks, lows of 14 C and highs of 22 to 24 C. There may be occasional light rain in some parts of the west and north, and moderate to strong southerly breezes.

    FRIDAY will see variable cloud and isolated showers, possibly a thunderstorm in one or two spots (north central is favoured), with lows near 14 C and highs near 21 C.

    SATURDAY and SUNDAY will be rather average for time of year with passing showers and some brighter intervals, temperatures near 18 or 19 C. Rain will develop later Sunday and extend into the holiday Monday with 10-20 mm falls possible. Another disturbance will be along by Tuesday to cause further rainfalls then.

    My local weather was sunny and intensely hot, reaching 35 degrees locally and almost 40 in some of the nearby valley locations. Luckily the nights cool off reasonably fast at our elevation (which is over 1,000 metres) so we can already feel a cool breeze coming in.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 29 July, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland


    TRENDS for the week of 29 July to 4 August are expected to be near normal values for temperatures, somewhat above normal for rainfall and only 50 to 75 per cent of normal for sunshine.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be overcast with rain spreading from the south and west to other parts of the country by late morning or mid-day. Eventually some heavier showers will develop over western counties. Highs 15 to 18 C.

    TONIGHT the rain will continue to push further north, with 10-20 mm total falls in most locations by morning. Mild and humid with lows near 14 C.

    THURSDAY will become partly cloudy, warm and humid with isolated outbreaks of rain in western counties. Moderate southerly winds and highs 19 to 23 C.

    FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with showers and isolated thunderstorms, most likely to be found in north central counties. Lows near 14 C and highs near 21 C.

    SATURDAY will become partly cloudy with showers and somewhat fresher, lows near 12 C and highs near 19 C.

    SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with scattered outbreaks of light rain, lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C.

    MONDAY will start out dry with variable amounts of cloud. Rain is likely to push into western counties by mid-day and into other regions during the afternoon and evening. Some heavier rainfalls may develop in western counties late in the day. Highs near 18 C.

    The further outlook is for rather unsettled but warm conditions during the following week, highs into the low 20s at times.

    My local weather remained sunny and very hot with highs again near 35 C locally and 40 C at lower elevations. This is predicted to last until the end of the week here.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 30 July, 2020 __ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS for the coming week will be somewhat warmer than both recent days and normal values, by 1-2 degrees. Rainfall may reach average amounts eventually (now that we're past the rather wet period of the past day). Sunshine will be challenged to meet even two thirds of normal early August values but there will be some brighter days in the mix.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY ... The remnants of the rainfall (which was rather heavy in the southwest overnight) will continue to push north and it will turn more partly cloudy than overcast later with quite a warm feel as temperatures push up into the 20-23 C range and humidity stays high. Moderate southerly winds will provide some relief.

    TONIGHT will be very mild and humid with a slight chance of rain in the west, otherwise likely to stay mostly dry with lows only falling to 14-16 C.

    FRIDAY will have intervals of cloud and sun, as slightly cooler air tries to push in but it won't feel much different from today with highs 19 to 22 C, scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm developing.

    SATURDAY will definitely feel cooler with a moderate westerly breeze and cloudy skies with a few breaks, passing showers, lows of 12 C and highs of 18 C.

    SUNDAY will also be rather cool with variable amounts of cloud, isolated showers, and lows near 10 C, highs near 17 C.

    After some rain Sunday night, MONDAY is now looking improved with a dry slot developing between that overnight rainfall and the approaching disturbance timed for Tuesday. So by Monday afternoon it may be sunny and breezy with highs near 18 C.

    TUESDAY looks rather wet again with highs near 18 C.

    The longer term outlook is starting to look rather warm, will say that August is likely to average 1 to 2 deg above normal which will be 2 to 3 above July's sub-normal outcome. Rainfall in the month will likely be at least average if not slightly above.

    My local weather has stayed broiling hot with another day of sunshine and 35 degrees. We expect slight relief by Sunday here but it's only falling back to the high 20s then drifting back up towards low 30s later next week, so while no new fires yet, the wildfire hazard is increasing, fortunately no dry lightning reported in this heat wave so far.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 31 July, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for week of 31 July to 6 August 2020

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values.
    -- Rainfall will average about 75 per cent of normal (near normal in some parts of north central Ireland).
    -- Sunshine will average near normal amounts (currently about 4 to 5 hours a day).


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be warm and humid with outbreaks of rain, possibly thundery in some places, already underway in most west-central counties in a zone running from about Cork to central Ulster. This band of sometimes heavy rain will make slow eastward progress reaching the east coast before mid-day, although most of the heavier cells will likely track into north central Leinster and east Ulster. The air mass following in from the west is only slightly cooler and somewhat unstable too, which may lead to further outbreaks of thundery showers in western counties after some limited sunshine. Highs about 21 or 22 C (could go to 24 C in any longer sunny intervals). Rainfalls of 10 to 20 mm will be fairly widespread, potential for localized 20 to 30 mm downpours most likely in central Munster, west-central Leinster to inland east Ulster.

    TONIGHT will see partly cloudy skies with isolated showers, and you might catch a view of the nearly full moon closing in on very bright Jupiter, Saturn off to their left. (Saturday night the moon will be closer to Saturn moving by the two planets). Lows around 12 C.

    SATURDAY will bring variable amounts of cloud and outbreaks of rain, slight chance of isolated thunder again, and highs near 18 C with sometimes moderate westerly breezes.

    SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows near 10 C and highs near 19 C. Some outbreaks of light rain are likely by the overnight hours in Munster and south Leinster.

    MONDAY will become partly cloudy again after any morning showers depart, then overcast by afternoon, lows near 12 C and highs near 20 C.

    TUESDAY will bring some intervals of heavier rain, 10 to 20 mm potential in central counties, lows near 11 C and highs near 17 C.

    The OUTLOOK for later next week is for a more settled and quite warm interval with highs possibly into the mid 20s.

    My local weather on Thursday remained sunny and very hot with highs near 35 C. It was still around 24 C outside around midnight local time but somewhat less oppressive than it sounds due to very low humidity values.

    Hurricane Isaias is moving into the central Bahamas, while no match for Dorian it is following a rather similar track and will run up the eastern coast of the U.S. by Monday and could make landfalls in North Carolina and again on Long Island after crossing parts of eastern Virginia and the Delmarva peninsula; however, guidance is not totally united on this scenario and some models show a weaker storm trying to cross Florida into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. There are no intensity forecasts going past about the category 2 limit so far, but even that would be a significant event for Long Island and New England.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 1 August, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 1 to 7 Aug 2020 will be slightly warmer than average, near normal for rainfall and sunshine.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will start out reasonably dry in most places with showers becoming longer intervals of light to moderate rain in some cases by afternoon and evening. Highs near 18 C, rainfalls 5-10 mm.

    TONIGHT will see an end to the rain with partial clearing later, just a few isolated showers by morning, lows near 10 or 11 C.

    SUNDAY will become partly cloudy with passing showers although not every location will see them, amounts trace to about 5 mm in some parts of west and north. Moderate southwest winds at times, highs 16 to 18 C.

    MONDAY will be partly cloudy with rain arriving later or overnight, highs near 20 C.

    TUESDAY will see frequent showers, 10-20 mm rain and highs near 17 C.

    WEDNESDAY could also see a few showers with highs near 18 C.

    THURSDAY is likely to be a dry day between systems with some sunshine and highs close to 20 C.

    FRIDAY will become rather warm and humid with showers and a few isolated thunderstorms, highs near 22 C.

    Although next weekend will somewhat resemble this weekend, there won't be as much cloud or rain involved then a stronger high will develop by around Monday 10th, lasting for a few days, so there could be a decent summery interval then with highs reaching low 20s. This is expected to transition to cloudy and eventually wet weather as the high builds to the northeast and allows east winds to take over.

    My local weather has remained sunny and hot again with the high near 36 C on Friday. Some brutal heat developed to our south and places in WA, OR and ID reached the low 40s or near 110 F. With a south wind bringing that air in here tonight, it is not cooling down very much (27 C at midnight here). We are going to get some minor relief with scattered thunderstorms developing and a cooler although still quite warm air mass building in from the northwest by Sunday, highs should be back to a more normal (for here) 25-30 C range. Hurricane Isaias is causing havoc in the weather models as its likely track is close to the coast but possibly inland at times, always a difficult forecasting scenario when tropical systems have one foot on land and one on sea. It is still expected to reach various parts of the U.S. east coast by Monday-Tuesday, currently near Andros Island in the Bahamas (category one).


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 2 August, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 2 to 8 August 2020

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values.
    -- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.
    -- Sunshine will average 75 to 100 per cent of normal.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will start out with some brighter intervals and isolated showers developing gradually along weak troughs in central counties, then more substantial showers or intervals of light rain will begin to work in from the west and make some progress before fragmenting to isolated showers further east. Somewhat cooler than recent days with highs 16 to 18 C.

    TONIGHT will become partly cloudy to clear at times with lows 7 to 10 C, some isolated showers possible in coastal areas of north and also south.

    MONDAY will see increasing cloud with rain developing late afternoon or evening, highs 18 to 20 C.

    TUESDAY will bring a few intervals of moderate rainfall, 10 to 15 mm potential, then partial clearing, lows near 14 C and highs near 18 C.

    WEDNESDAY will become partly cloudy to overcast with isolated showers, lows near 13 C and highs 19 or 20 C.

    THURSDAY will have some sunny breaks and warmer southerly breezes, highs 20 to 23 C.

    FRIDAY will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms, highs 19 to 22 C.

    The weekend of 8th-9th will have a few cloudy intervals and isolated showers but also some decent dry spells, with temperatures perhaps falling back slightly on Saturday to 18 C then back around 20 C by Sunday.

    Next week could turn a bit warmer again for several days with southeasterly to easterly breezes and highs 21 to 24, but this will trend towards overcast and unsettled as disturbances push up against the remnants of high pressure and the easterly flow turns more rainy.

    My local weather stayed hot although mostly cloudy on Saturday with remnants of past night's thunderstorms over distant mountain ranges drifting over our region and trying to redevelop, nothing much came of that except for a one-minute shower. Highs still reached 30 C despite little sunshine, and now it's overcast and about 22 C at midnight.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 3 August, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 3 to 9 August will be warmer than average by 1-2 deg, somewhat less rain than normal although parts of the north may reach normal, and sunshine not too far from seasonal averages, improving during the week.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with a few isolated showers but staying mostly dry until late in the day when rain is expected. Highs 17 to 20 C.

    TONIGHT will be overcast with occasional rain, 5 to 10 mm possibly in west, central and northern counties. Lows will be mild, 13 to 15 C.

    TUESDAY will be breezy, sometimes quite windy on Atlantic coasts, with rain largely confined to west and north, a few showers elsewhere. Highs 18 to 20 C.

    WEDNESDAY will see further showers, some becoming heavy and thundery by mid-day in the south and east. Warm and humid with highs near 20 C.

    THURSDAY will be more settled with some sunny intervals and highs 21 to 24 C.

    FRIDAY will be overcast at times with passing showers and risk of a thunderstorm, highs 20 to 23 C.

    The weekend will be largely settled with near normal temperatures. It may warm up again by about Monday and Tuesday of the following week, then seems likely to become more unsettled towards mid-month.

    My local weather on Sunday was sunny but hazy with high cloud dimming the sunshine, still quite hot with highs reaching 32 C. It has cleared up since sunset and feels refreshingly cooler although I don't think the heat will be much less intense in coming days, 27 to 30 C still quite warm for here.

    Isaias, borderline intensity between strong tropical storm and weak cat-1 hurricane, will move rapidly into the Carolinas, bringing downpours to most of the eastern U.S. over the next day or two. The centre will be close to New York City by Tuesday morning and well off into Quebec and Labrador by Tuesday night. The main impact will probably be locally flooding rainfalls of 75 to 150 mm in parts of the Carolinas, Virginia, Maryland, NJ and e PA, metro NYC, and then less rain further along its track as it weakens and accelerates.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 4 August, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 August will continue as previous few days have indicated, warmer than average by about 2 deg, not overly wet although rather frequent unsettled spells, and a bit on the cloudy side until later in the period when sunshine may finally return to a more prominent role.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals, some passing light showers with drizzle in some western and northern counties, rather frequent low scudding cloud but also some intervals of better visibility too, and a muggy feel as a bit of subtropical influence is showing up in this blustery southwest flow, highs 19 to 22 C.

    TONIGHT will see a few showers and mild southwest winds, lows 13 to 15 C.

    WEDNESDAY will have a frontal passage that could bring isolated heavy showers or even a thunderstorm in some places, but it looks rather hit or miss with rainfalls anywhere between 2 and 15 mm likely at different locations. Southwest to west winds 50 to 70 km/hr at times, highs near 20 C.

    THURSDAY will become partly cloudy with just isolated showers and rather warm, lows near 10 C and highs 21 to 23 C.

    FRIDAY will bring on some showers and thunderstorms with another weak front passing, lows near 14 C and highs near 22 C.

    SATURDAY will become mostly sunny with highs near 20 C.

    SUNDAY may also be sunny at times with warmer temperatures developing, 22 to 25 C.

    The warmer spell could last a few days before turning more overcast and unsettled.

    My local weather returned to full sunshine and while quite hot, a little reduction in the blistering heat to around 30 degrees and it has cooled down nicely after sunset again. Great views of the full moon and various planets depending on time you are out, make a note that Jupiter and Saturn dominate the early to midnight period, then Mars rises and is quite prominent after about 0100h, Venus after 0300h when it appears. This is a rare occasion when all four of the brightest planets can easily be seen, and I believe Mercury is also visible in the early morning skies, haven't gotten my act together to view that yet.

    Hurricane Isaias moved inland near Wilmington NC and is back to tropical storm intensity now approaching Richmond VA on its way to Chesapeake Bay and New Jersey. It will be near or just west of NYC by this evening. A band of very heavy rain is likely to set up near its track, with 200-300 mm potential and local flooding potential on "fast response" rivers. Its remnant low will weaken rapidly late today and overnight moving towards Vermont and Quebec.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 5 August, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS -- Once we get through today's unsettled and briefly stormy conditions, most of the coming week (to the 11th) will be very warm and dry much of the time, although scattered showers and thunderstorms may interrupt that on Friday. Temperatures may average as much as 3 deg above normal. Sunshine will improve after today, even perhaps by later today.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will start out cloudy and damp, with heavy showers developing and the risk of a heavy thunderstorm in some places. This cluster will form over west Munster within the next two hours and will move briskly east and northeast to reach the east coast by about 11:00 a.m. to noon. Some gusty winds, hail and locally intense downpours could occur during this time frame. The weather will improve steadily after mid-day with clearing spreading from west coast into central and then eastern counties during the afternoon. Winds may be blustery at times with the clearance, southwest to west 50 to 70 km/hr. Even higher gusts could occur during any storms or heavy showers. Highs will reach about 20 C. Rainfalls will be rather variable, 5 to 15 mm will be the range for most places but 25 mm could fall in a few locations (at a guess, Limerick to Athlone to Dundalk would be the zone most likely to see locally heavy amounts).

    TONIGHT will feature partly cloudy to clear skies and lows around 10 to 12 C.

    THURSDAY will start out sunny then clouds may increase, but it will be quite warm and rather humid with south to southwest breezes and highs 21 to 24 C (possibly a bit higher inland southeast).

    FRIDAY will have another active frontal passage with showers and thunderstorms, possibly more widespread and intense further north this time, then skies will begin to clear during the afternoon. Lows near 15 C and highs 21 to 23 C.

    SATURDAY will bring sunny intervals and highs near 21 C.

    SUNDAY will be hazy, sunny and quite warm with highs near 24 C.

    The warm spell will last for a few days then more cloud and showers can be expected later next week, timing quite uncertain this far out.

    My local weather remained sunny and very warm on Tuesday, the high reaching 32 C with low humidity, pleasant clear conditions at midnight. Isaias rumbled through the eastern United States with some locally heavy rainfalls and isolated tornado outbreaks adding to the wind damage that the tropical storm produced more generally (except for the tornado streaks, maximum gusts were around 50-55 knots). The storm is now much weaker and crossing into southern Quebec.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 6 August, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the coming week will be generally warm, fairly dry and partly cloudy with normal amounts of sunshine overall. Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg above normal. Rainfall will average 50 per cent of normal amounts.

    My apologies for a late start here today, partly my schedule but a long process logging into boards and a slow connection at the same time.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will start out hazy with some sunshine at times, and it will quickly become rather warm and muggy. Clouds will increase generally from the south and west. Highs 19 to 23 C, warmest in midlands, central Leinster and further north into Ulster.

    TONIGHT will see outbreaks of light rain developing from the west, quite warm and muggy, lows 13 to 17 C.

    FRIDAY will bring a few showers and isolated thunderstorms with a weak cold front pushing through, more active inland northern counties. Highs 19 to 23 C.

    SATURDAY will be hazy, mostly sunny and quite warm again with lows near 12 C and highs near 22 C.

    SUNDAY will be cloudy with sunny intervals, and isolated showers with risk of a thunderstorm, in an east to northeast flow that will be tapping into very warm air from Britain and nearby Europe. Lows near 14 C and highs near 22 C.

    MONDAY will also be partly cloudy, humid with scattered showers and risk of a thunderstorm, lows near 16 C and highs near 23 C.

    Most of next week will continue rather warm and sometimes slightly unsettled, although in general rainfall totals will likely be low for most locations, and significant in a few places that happen to get under a localized heavier shower cell. That pattern looks like it might last for a week to ten days before possibly breaking down to a cooler more Atlantic dominated flow after mid-month.

    My local weather was sunny and hot again, the high reaching 35 C. This hot spell that has lasted about a week is about to end with an outbreak of thunderstorms here later Thursday.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 7 August, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 August 2020

    -- Temperatures will average 3 deg above normal values (which would be near 20 C daytime highs, near 12 for overnight lows).
    -- Rainfall is rather uncertain with guidance split on how much might affect Ireland, see forecast for discussion.
    -- Sunshine is likely to average about the normal amount which is 4.5 hours a day with regional variations.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will feature some lines of showers and thunderstorms pushing into the northern half of the country from the Atlantic, and with some isolated showers further south at times. One or two of these could be heavy with gusty winds, hail and briefly torrential rainfalls. Warm sunshine will occur between these fronts, so the weather will be quite changeable especially across Connacht, Ulster and north Leinster. Highs near 23 C away from somewhat cooler Atlantic coasts. A sharp wind shift may occur with the front now located in central Connacht, winds are strong south to southeast ahead of it, and moderate westerly after it passes.

    TONIGHT will see any remnants of these showers dying out by midnight, with clear and calm conditions towards morning, fog patches likely and lows 8 to 12 C.

    SATURDAY will bring warm, hazy sunshine and local sea breezes in an otherwise quite light wind pattern, highs 21 to 24 C.

    SUNDAY will be similar with increasing higher cloud layers and the risk of isolated showers and thunderstorms over the south and east by evening, in a light east to northeast flow. Lows near 11 C and highs near 22 C.

    MONDAY and TUESDAY pose a forecasting challenge as some guidance shows heavy thundery showers forming and becoming rather widespread especially in the south and east. Other guidance seems to be leaning more towards that development being confined to Britain with outbreaks in Ireland rather limited. We'll split the difference for now and say partly to mostly cloudy skies both days, rather warm and humid, with a moderate chance of heavy showers and thunderstorms forming each day, locally heavy amounts 20 to 40 mm possible with those. Highs both days 20 to 24 C and rather warm, muggy nights with lows 12 to 16 C.

    This warm and rather unsettled spell will likely continue with less prolific amounts of rain later in the week and similar temperatures in the mid 20s. In general, it will be quite warm for about a week to ten days then a rather unsettled and cooler interval is likely with temperatures dropping to the 16-19 C range by about the 20th of August.

    My local weather changed considerably on Thursday with several passing showers and a very heavy thunderstorm around 7 p.m. with strong wind gusts and a quick 15 mm of rain making a daily total near 25 mm. There were a few brighter intervals between the showers but the highest temperature was only about 22 C. This has all pushed off to our east now and skies are overcast with fog over the hills.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 8 August, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 August, 2020

    -- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal.
    -- Rainfall will be highly variable and could exceed normal values in some parts of Leinster.
    -- Sunshine will be 75 to 100 per cent of normal values.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be sunny with light winds and local sea breezes. Warm, highs 19 to 23 C.

    TONIGHT will be hazy but essentially clear, lows 10 to 13 C.

    SUNDAY will bring increasing higher cloud with a slight risk of localized showers in the southeast by late afternoon, otherwise largely dry with highs 20 to 25 C, warmest in Connacht and inland Munster.

    MONDAY and TUESDAY continue to pose a challenge as to amounts of rainfall, but generally speaking the weather pattern will be partly to mostly cloudy, rather warm, with light to moderate east winds, and the threat of heavy localized showers and possibly thunderstorms both days, over parts of Leinster and east Munster. Further west and north it may be more settled but all locations will have some risk of showers. Highs both days 21 to 24 C, nights rather mild and muggy with lows 12 to 15 C.

    The OUTLOOK from WEDNESDAY to about the weekend of 15th-16th is for a similar pattern to continue although possibly with fewer showers in general mid-week, returning back to more widespread thundery showers later and into the weekend. Highs will be generally around 21 to 25 C.

    My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy and the high was around 23 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 9 August, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 9 to 15 August, 2020

    -- Temperatures will average about 2 to 3 deg above normal, although falling closer to average near the end.
    -- Rainfall will average 50 per cent of normal but locally could exceed normal in isolated heavy showers.
    -- Sunshine will average near normal values.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will feature long intervals of hazy sunshine but clouds will begin to increase during the afternoon and there could be one or two isolated showers over parts of the inland north. Warm with highs 22 to 26 C.

    TONIGHT will be rather cloudy with showers or thunderstorms possible by morning. Warm and muggy with lows around 15 C.

    MONDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with outbreaks of showers or thunderstorms in parts of the southeast, east and some central counties. Warm and humid with highs 21 to 24 C.

    TUESDAY will also be rather cloudy although longer intervals of sunshine possible in the west, with more outbreaks of thundery showers possible in the east. Lows near 16 C and highs near 23 C.

    WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy and warm with isolated showers, lows near 14 C and highs near 24 C.

    THURSDAY will see increasing cloud, isolated showers, and somewhat cooler temperatures, highs near 21 C.

    FRIDAY and SATURDAY are currently looking cooler and rather unsettled with showers moving from northwest to southeast across the country, a few may be heavy. Highs near 18 C.

    My local weather on Saturday was partly cloudy and pleasant but rather cool at 22 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 10 August, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for 10 to 16 Aug 2020 --

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg above normal, probably the higher values will be further west.
    -- Rainfall looks quite variable, eventually some parts of the inland south may exceed normal values by 25 or even 50 per cent, but other regions may not pass 75 per cent of normal.
    -- Sunshine will average only 50 to 75 per cent of normal, except for a few parts of the far northwest which may reach normal amounts.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY ... Rather cloudy with a few brighter intervals mainly in west and north, some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible, still some guidance showing nearly dry conditions in Ireland compared to widespread heavy showers in Wales and western England, so the outcome rather uncertain, if any heavier showers develop they would likely be along a sea breeze boundary in Leinster or east Munster. Highs 18 to 21 C east, to 21-23 C west and north.

    TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, a few remnant showers dying out over south and east, muggy, lows 11 to 14 C.

    TUESDAY ... Again, some uncertainty remains, but a few showers and isolated thunderstorms likely in parts of Leinster and east Munster, only a few isolated showers elsewhere, highs 20 to 23 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... A rising chance of heavier showers and thunderstorms developing across parts of the inland south, remaining dry in some parts of the west and north, under variable amounts of cloud. Rather warm still with lows around 14 C and highs around 23 C although any prolonged rainfall would be accompanied by temperatures closer to 17 or 18 C.

    THURSDAY ... Showers and thunderstorms across parts of the south, variable cloud further north with isolated showers, lows near 14 C and highs 21 to 23 C.

    FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers, lows near 13 C and highs near 22 C.

    OUTLOOK for weekend of 15th-16th is for this unsettled and slightly warmer trend to continue with temperatures edging closer to normal each day, around 19 or 20 C likely but in any longer intervals of sunshine could reach 22 or 23 C.

    A more unsettled and cooler regime is likely to become established in the following week.

    My local weather was very good with sunshine and a few clouds, refreshing northwest breezes and highs near 24 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 10 August, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for 10 to 16 Aug 2020 --

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg above normal, probably the higher values will be further west.
    -- Rainfall looks quite variable, eventually some parts of the inland south may exceed normal values by 25 or even 50 per cent, but other regions may not pass 75 per cent of normal.
    -- Sunshine will average only 50 to 75 per cent of normal, except for a few parts of the far northwest which may reach normal amounts.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY ... Rather cloudy with a few brighter intervals mainly in west and north, some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible, still some guidance showing nearly dry conditions in Ireland compared to widespread heavy showers in Wales and western England, so the outcome rather uncertain, if any heavier showers develop they would likely be along a sea breeze boundary in Leinster or east Munster. Highs 18 to 21 C east, to 21-23 C west and north.

    TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, a few remnant showers dying out over south and east, muggy, lows 11 to 14 C.

    TUESDAY ... Again, some uncertainty remains, but a few showers and isolated thunderstorms likely in parts of Leinster and east Munster, only a few isolated showers elsewhere, highs 20 to 23 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... A rising chance of heavier showers and thunderstorms developing across parts of the inland south, remaining dry in some parts of the west and north, under variable amounts of cloud. Rather warm still with lows around 14 C and highs around 23 C although any prolonged rainfall would be accompanied by temperatures closer to 17 or 18 C.

    THURSDAY ... Showers and thunderstorms across parts of the south, variable cloud further north with isolated showers, lows near 14 C and highs 21 to 23 C.

    FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers, lows near 13 C and highs near 22 C.

    OUTLOOK for weekend of 15th-16th is for this unsettled and slightly warmer trend to continue with temperatures edging closer to normal each day, around 19 or 20 C likely but in any longer intervals of sunshine could reach 22 or 23 C.

    A more unsettled and cooler regime is likely to become established in the following week.

    My local weather was very good with sunshine and a few clouds, refreshing northwest breezes and highs near 24 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 10 August, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for 10 to 16 Aug 2020 --

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg above normal, probably the higher values will be further west.
    -- Rainfall looks quite variable, eventually some parts of the inland south may exceed normal values by 25 or even 50 per cent, but other regions may not pass 75 per cent of normal.
    -- Sunshine will average only 50 to 75 per cent of normal, except for a few parts of the far northwest which may reach normal amounts.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY ... Rather cloudy with a few brighter intervals mainly in west and north, some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible, still some guidance showing nearly dry conditions in Ireland compared to widespread heavy showers in Wales and western England, so the outcome rather uncertain, if any heavier showers develop they would likely be along a sea breeze boundary in Leinster or east Munster. Highs 18 to 21 C east, to 21-23 C west and north.

    TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, a few remnant showers dying out over south and east, muggy, lows 11 to 14 C.

    TUESDAY ... Again, some uncertainty remains, but a few showers and isolated thunderstorms likely in parts of Leinster and east Munster, only a few isolated showers elsewhere, highs 20 to 23 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... A rising chance of heavier showers and thunderstorms developing across parts of the inland south, remaining dry in some parts of the west and north, under variable amounts of cloud. Rather warm still with lows around 14 C and highs around 23 C although any prolonged rainfall would be accompanied by temperatures closer to 17 or 18 C.

    THURSDAY ... Showers and thunderstorms across parts of the south, variable cloud further north with isolated showers, lows near 14 C and highs 21 to 23 C.

    FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers, lows near 13 C and highs near 22 C.

    OUTLOOK for weekend of 15th-16th is for this unsettled and slightly warmer trend to continue with temperatures edging closer to normal each day, around 19 or 20 C likely but in any longer intervals of sunshine could reach 22 or 23 C.

    A more unsettled and cooler regime is likely to become established in the following week.

    My local weather was very good with sunshine and a few clouds, refreshing northwest breezes and highs near 24 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 11 August, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for 11 to 17 August 2020

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal.
    -- Rainfall will be highly variable from place to place, but could exceed normal eventually in parts of the inland south.
    -- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal values.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be hazy with some sunny intervals, especially further west, with a gradual increase in cloud. There will likely be outbreaks of thundery showers by afternoon and evening, most likely in east, inland south and midlands, but not ruled out elsewhere either. Amounts will be generally small but could be locally a lot higher in small-scale but intense cells. Highs 21 to 24 C.

    TONIGHT will be partly cloudy, muggy and warm with lows 12 to 16 C.

    WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy, humid with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, again generally small rainfall amounts but with the potential for heavier showers in a few locations. Highs 21 to 24 C.

    THURSDAY is likely to produce more widespread showers and thunderstorms and more of these could become heavy, rainfall amounts generally 5 to 15 mm but locally as high as 30 mm possibly. Lows near 15 C and highs 20 to 23 C.

    FRIDAY will continue the partly cloudy, unsettled theme with a few more showers likely, lows near 14 C and highs near 22 C.

    SATURDAY also looks quite unsettled with more widespread showers again, and slightly cooler, lows near 12 C and highs near 20 C.

    SUNDAY will bring variable amounts of cloud with showers and highs near 19 C.

    The outlook for the following week is very unsettled with frequent rain and rather cool temperatures at times, as the regime shifts more to a northwesterly flow around low pressure over Britain, and temperatures therefore may be only in the mid-teens especially during rainfall.

    My local weather on Monday was sunny with cloudy intervals, breezy and warmer again with highs back up around 28 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 12 August, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 12 to 18 August 2020

    -- Temperatures will continue somewhat above normal values by 1 or 2 degrees.
    -- Rainfall will probably start to add up in the coming days to near normal amounts in parts of the south at least. It could stay rather dry in some central and northern regions for almost the whole week. A different regime will develop towards the end of this interval and that could change the rainfall distribution to above normal in the west and north.
    -- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal values as it stays rather cloudy much of the time, however, a few places could break into longer spells of sunshine and exceed normal values (central counties most likely).

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will become hazy with some sunshine at times, and quite warm. Although there is a risk of showers or thunderstorms developing especially in the south coastal counties, it may remain dry for many locations. Highs will reach 21 to 24 C.

    TONIGHT will be partly to mostly cloudy, muggy and quite warm with lows 13 to 17 C.

    THURSDAY will likely see more significant shower and thunderstorm development near the south coast but again there may be some places remaining dry in partly cloudy and very warm conditions, highs 21 to 25 C.

    FRIDAY will continue this slightly unsettled, humid and rather warm trend with lows near 15 C and highs 21 to 25 C.

    SATURDAY is looking somewhat cooler with more cloud than sunshine and scattered thundery showers. Lows about 13 C and highs 18 to 21 C.

    SUNDAY will break back into partly cloudy and warm conditions with isolated showers and highs near 23 C.

    The OUTLOOK for next week involves a gradual change to more unsettled and cooler conditions with the westerly flow resuming and then becoming quite cool at times towards the end of August; some guidance for about two weeks from now suggests daytime highs only 14 to 17 C. We'll track that possibility but it seems safe to say that the month will turn cooler and wetter than it has been (in Ireland).

    My local weather started out sunny in the morning, then saw increasing high cloud to a more general overcast which is preventing any chance of watching for Perseid meteors tonight. You might want to see if your skies have any clear patches tonight, and look to the north or northeast around or just after midnight for best chances of seeing the meteor shower. There won't be much interference from moonlight as the Moon will be rising after 0100h.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 13 August, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    Some parts of the south and west have seen heavy rainfalls overnight, with counties Cork, Limerick, Clare and Galway receiving 15 to 30 mm of rain. There may be some localized flooding underway in some of these counties this morning.

    The weather pattern is fairly static and trends will generally continue to resemble what has been happening for the past few days, warm and dry in parts of the north, much wetter to the south. Sunshine will also be more likely most days further north too.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will continue unsettled, warm and humid with more outbreaks of thundery showers expected in parts of the south and west. Isolated showers or thunderstorms cannot be ruled out elsewhere, but the probability increases to nearly 100% for parts of Munster and southwest Connacht, where further rainfalls of 10 to 30 mm are possible. Highs will range from near 20 C in the south and west, to 24 C in the midlands, inland parts of Leinster and Ulster.

    TONIGHT will see little change in this pattern with further outbreaks of thunderstorms possible in the south, more likely partly cloudy to overcast, but quite warm and humid further north. Lows 13 to 17 C.

    FRIDAY will probably see more outbreaks of thundery showers across the southern counties but spreading at times further north, highs near 23 C.

    SATURDAY the showers and thunderstorms could become even more widespread in southern and central counties with some northern counties remaining dry, lows near 14 C and highs 20 to 23 C.

    SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with more isolated thundery showers, lows near 13 C and highs near 23 C.

    MONDAY may begin to dry out somewhat in general but with isolated showers still likely, lows near 12 C and highs around 22 C.

    For several days around Tuesday to Thursday (timing somewhat uncertain in this slow-moving situation) a dry ridge of higher pressure will form and skies may be less overcast in all areas, with temperatures continued rather warm, highs 22 to 26 C.

    Towards the end of next week Atlantic weather systems will begin to push back from the west and it will gradually turn cooler in stages, with highs falling into the 15 to 19 C range by the second week of the outlook period.

    My local weather on Wednesday was mostly sunny and hazy with some smoke from distant fires south of the border, highs around 22 C. We are heading back into heat wave conditions over the next few days. My forecasts may not appear every day during the next five day interval as we are heading out on a short road trip but I will have internet access and hope to keep the file updated.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 14 August, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland


    TRENDS for the coming week will continue rather warm, humid, and with increasing amounts of rain from south to north but possibly not reaching all parts of the north in any large quantities; rainfalls could be as much as 50% above normal in the south and near normal in central counties. Sunshine will not be abundant but might approach the low end of the normal range.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, best chances for longer sunny intervals in the north. Showers and thunderstorms will develop across parts of the south and may spread into south-central counties at times. 10 to 30 mm amounts are possible but will not occur in all locations. Highs near 21 C south and east, to near 25 C north and west.

    TONIGHT will be muggy with lows 13 to 17 C.

    SATURDAY will see more widespread outbreaks of thundery showers and these could begin to spread quite widely throughout central counties by afternoon, and isolated showers may reach the north too. Highs near 19 or 20 C during rainy intervals and 23 C in more settled conditions further north.

    SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with scattered showers and risk of thunderstorms, lows near 15 C and highs 21 to 24 C.

    MONDAY will also produce showers and thunderstorms, lows near 16 C and highs near 22 C.

    TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY look a bit more settled as a weak ridge of higher pressure forms, but the threat of showers will not be absent altogether. Highs will be around 22 to 24 C.

    By about THURSDAY a much different regime will set in, as this easterly blocking feeding on very warm air over Britain will give way to an almost autumnal Atlantic pattern and some of the days further along into that period look unusually chilly for August, in contrast to the recent trends. At this point would say that it seems quite likely to be cooler and often windier than recently, with the source of rainfall passing fronts from the west rather than clusters of showers from the east. The one caveat would be that models sometimes do not handle these transitions well and it may be a case of overdoing this particular change, time will tell.

    My local weather (while travelling to the coast) was sunny all day with highs near 30 C in lower elevations and 20-25 C through mountain passes. We are thankful not to have the widespread smoke that has plagued us for several summers recently, although sometimes there's a hint of it, but nothing to compare to the problems of other years, which is good because in this pandemic situation the last thing we would want is poor air quality.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 15 August, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 15 to 21 August 2020 --

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal, however the last few days of this interval will likely be somewhat below average, so the trend is downward most of the way.
    -- Rainfalls will average around 25 to 50 per cent above normal and could be as much as twice normal in parts of the south.
    -- Sunshine will average near normal in the north but only 50 per cent of normal in the south.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be mostly cloudy in the south with further outbreaks of showery or thundery rain, 10 to 20 mm local accumulations likely. These showers will begin to spread into some central counties later on. Parts of the north will remain dry with longer sunny intervals. Highs near 20 C in the south to near 24 C in the north.

    TONIGHT will bring further rain at times and muggy conditions with some fog or mist developing, lows near 15 C.

    SUNDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms, this time somewhat more widespread and less confined to the south. Highs 20 to 23 C.

    MONDAY will bring heavy showers and thunderstorms with lows near 15 C and highs near 23 C.

    TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms, lows near 15 C and highs near 23 C.

    WEDNESDAY now appears to be the day that the Atlantic pushes back with rain spreading in from the west and becoming quite heavy in many areas of the country, with temperatures likely to stall out around 18 C. Winds will become moderate to strong southeast 50 to 70 km/hr.

    THURSDAY will be breezy and cool with passing showers, highs 15 to 19 C.

    The trend will then be towards considerably cooler weather and sometimes rather windy with intervals of rain separated by partly cloudy spells, through the weekend of the 22nd-23rd. Temperatures may only be in the 15 to 17 C range by then, lasting into part of the following week before a slight warming trend returns.

    My local weather (now on the coast near Vancouver BC) was sunny with a high of about 25 C. Expecting hot and sunny weather all weekend here and during any return travel we might undertake.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 16 August, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    The trends for the coming week will be essentially cloudy, rather wet and with slowly falling temperatures that will average perhaps 1 deg above normal, but by the end of the weekly interval will reach values that are 1-2 deg below.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and widespread showers and thunderstorms, finally beginning to spread further north at times. Local rainfalls of 10-15 mm possible. Highs 19 to 23 C dependent mostly on any sunshine and duration of rainfall.

    TONIGHT will be overcast and rather misty to foggy at times with more showers possible, lows 14 to 17 C.

    MONDAY will be cloudy with sunny breaks, and scattered showers and thunderstorms, some rather heavy. Highs will range from 20 to 24 C.

    TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms, lows near 16 C and highs near 22 C.

    WEDNESDAY will be overcast with periods of rain and southeast winds increasing to 50-70 km/hr later in the day, lows near 14 C and highs 18 or 19 C.

    THURSDAY will be partly cloudy with passing showers, breezy (south to southwest 40 to 60 km/hr), lows near 12 C and highs near 19 C.

    The trend after that will be unsettled with frequent outbreaks of rain and winds turning gradually more to a northwest direction, promoting a slow fall in temperatures until daytime highs are only in the 15 to 18 C range.

    My local weather still in the Vancouver BC area was sunny and very warm, highs reached about 28 C and probably into the low 30s further inland. We plan to travel home on Sunday and expect hot, sunny conditions but a lot of our trip is through mountain passes so we might find some pleasant places to stop despite that.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 17 August, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 17 to 23 August 2020

    -- Temperatures will average near normal values with a downward trend through the period.
    -- Rainfall will average as much as twice normal in parts of Munster, south Connacht and south Leinster, to near normal further north. It should be noted that this trend appears likely to amplify towards the end of the period and continue with even larger departures possible in the second week.
    -- Sunshine will be fortunate to reach even half of normal values.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain and thunderstorms, heavy at times, especially in the southern counties where 15-30 mm amounts are possible. Highs 17 to 21 C.

    TONIGHT will be misty or foggy with further showers likely, lows 13 to 16 C.

    TUESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with more heavy showers and thunderstorms at times, briefly clearing the south later and moving into northern counties. Highs 17 to 21 C.

    WEDNESDAY will see a band of heavy rain forming during the early morning hours and moving gradually north, with 15-30 mm amounts possible. Winds strong east to southeast at times with this rain (50-80 km/hr) will veer more to southerly and ease later in the day. Temperatures steady near 17 or 18 C.

    THURSDAY will bring another interval of heavy rain (possibly 20-40 mm) moving up from the south into Munster and then Connacht, with somewhat lesser amounts further east. Lows near 14 C and highs near 18 C. By the time this rain event is underway, some moderate or even severe flooding is possible especially in parts of west Munster generally to the east and southeast of Limerick across southern Tipps, eastern Cork and north Waterford. This situation needs to be closely watched.

    FRIDAY will continue unsettled and rather cool with passing showers, gusty southwest to west winds, lows near 12 C and highs near 17 C.

    The outlook for the weekend is cool, breezy and showery although it may be somewhat less inclement than the days to follow when heavy rainfalls could resume. Some models are showing two months' worth of rain falling in parts of west Munster in the next ten days.

    My local weather is about the exact opposite of that with generally sunny and hot conditions encountered on our return trip earlier on Sunday, highest car temperature reading matching the official weather station report in the same area was 39 C (we got out of the a/c to feel that briefly and went on our way). Luckily at home cloud had spread in from the south during the afternoon and it never got much higher than 28 C here although it hasn't dropped much from that yet at 0045h local time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 18 August, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    Forecast models are starting to indicate potential for unusually strong low pressure areas forming over the Biscay region in about 24-36 hours and affecting various parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours. As there is considerable spread in the tracking and evolution of these lows, at this early stage all we can do is to issue a general alert for the possibility of very heavy rainfalls and unusually strong winds somewhere in the south most likely but with about equal chances of this favouring the southwest or southeast, complicated by the fact that there could be two separate lows forming and moving along different trajectories in the time frame Thursday-Saturday.

    Obviously the trends for the week will be dominated by this potential and could be considerably above normal for rainfalls in parts of the south and west. It's not likely to be too far from normal temperatures although with a reduced night to day variation, and cloud will be November-like to say the least.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY heavy rain will continue to push further north and will take its time tapering off to drizzle over most of Ulster, north Leinster and northeast Connacht. Other regions could get some breaks in the cloud and rather warm, muggy conditions that could lead to showers and thunderstorms. Of note, the east to west drift of weather systems has finally ended and now the flow is predominantly from south to north. Highs today will reach 17 C north to 22 C south.

    TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy and some rain will approach the south coast although it may not make much progress inland. Lows near 12 to 14 C.

    WEDNESDAY the rain is likely to move slowly north and some areas may get some fairly heavy downpours of 15 to 30 mm while others see only 2-5 mm. Strong east winds are likely, slowly turning more southeasterly (50 to 80 km/hr). Highs only 16 or 17 C for most, could reach 20 C in parts of west Munster. Around this time, if some model guidance is correct, strong low pressure systems will form further south over Biscay and once that happens we should be able to give more precise warnings about where and when they will impact Ireland, most likely to be late Wednesday night into Thursday.

    THURSDAY and FRIDAY are going to be "big weather days" if some guidance is correct, with impacts from strong low pressure areas along some coastal areas in particular. At this early stage, hard to say if the southwest, south central or southeast regions are most at risk, or possibly two separate events may develop. Some parts of the country are very likely to see torrential rainfalls and strong, possibly damaging winds although none of this can be considered certain yet. Temperatures will be steady in the 17 to 19 C range. Although tropical storms normally do not form in the Biscay region, there have been near-tropical-storm hybrid lows in past years (around August) and that may be the sort of system we will be following. These can have highly localized impacts that vary considerably from county to county. Be aware that rainfalls in these situations can easily reach 50 mm locally and could be heading towards 100 mm in a few places.

    The outlook beyond this volatile period is for continued breezy to windy conditions, and a slow cooling trend as the winds turn more westerly then northwesterly over the 3-5 days starting this weekend. Eventually by mid-week it seems likely to be quite chilly for late August with highs only 13 to 16 C. Although rain will continue at times, it won't be as heavy as what we're expecting to see later this week.

    Meanwhile, my local weather was sunny and hot although a heavy thunderstorm appeared on radar; once we determined it was going to miss the town by 5-10 miles to the north, we set out on a storm chase and got some nice pictures and videos which I am processing. It was more of a well-developed ordinary thunderstorm than a severe storm although I took the precaution of watching it from the safer north side and it looked as though hail and heavy rain fell from it in some places. The temperature was 37 C when we left town at 2 p.m. and 17 C at the end of the storm but in town it only fell a few degrees and no rain fell any closer than about 3 miles northwest. A second thunderstorm passed by on a similar track during the evening, with similar results. Still quite warm and muggy here at midnight local time. (25 C with dew point 19 C).


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 19 August, 2020 __ Forecasts for Ireland

    ALERT in place for strong winds and heavy rainfalls ... see forecasts for details as there will be several periods when severe weather may develop Wed to Sat.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will bring intervals of rain and increasingly strong east to southeast winds 40 to 70 km/hr at times. The rain will be somewhat variable in amounts (5-25 mm range) as a ragged band moves north rather gradually all day. The southeast may get the heavier amounts. Temperatures steady 16 to 18 C.

    TONIGHT may become quite stormy -- the details are still not totally clear as model guidance ranges from west coast to Irish Sea in terms of where this developing storm will track. The most reliable guidance suggests a direct hit on the south coast with the centre moving north through the midlands into Ulster. This means that all regions have some chance of seeing strong winds of 70 to 120 km/hr (with a slight risk of even higher gusts along some coasts). The eastern half of the country is more likely to get southeast to southwest winds, while the western half is more likely to see west to northwest winds as storm "Ellen" (which is actually a remnant of T.S. Kyle's former energy) hits some part of the country around late evening. Rainfalls of 15-45 mm are possible with areas near and just west of the track most likely to see the heaviest amounts. Temperatures will be steady near 16 C east to 13 C west. Some thunderstorms may be embedded in the rainfall from "Ellen." A storm surge may develop somewhere on the south coast between Cork and Wexford with coastal flooding possible in that zone.

    THURSDAY will continue quite windy for a time, depending on the actual track Ellen takes, then will be more moderate later but a second low could form to the southwest of Ireland and hit late in the day with a second round of strong winds. Heavy and possibly thundery rainfall will become showery, some partial clearing may follow between the two lows. High temperatures will be 17 to 21 C. Total rainfalls by end of the day could approach 50-60 mm in some places and flooding cannot be ruled out.

    FRIDAY we are not out of the woods as yet another significant low is quite possible tracking near the west coast, but a frontal system may extend from this to the east coast with locally heavy and thundery downpours there. Lows near 14 C and highs near 17 C.

    SATURDAY should see the start of a gradual improvement to less stormy weather although continued unsettled and turning a bit cooler, moderate southwest to west winds, lows near 12 C and highs near 16 C.

    SUNDAY and MONDAY are looking rather cool and showery in a west to northwest flow, highs around 15 to 17 C.

    The further outlook continues quite unsettled with more chances for significant rain and wind at times.

    My local weather on Tuesday was mostly sunny with a few cloudy intervals, and hot, with highs reaching 34 C. Clear and pleasant outside now however.

    There will likely be an update to this forecast around mid-afternoon to 6 p.m. depending on how storm Ellen evolves. The nucleus for this storm is currently off the northwest coast of Spain around 43N 15W and heading northeast. It has not yet developed much intensity so this is part of the uncertainty, as some models show rapid development around 1800h to midnight, others show a more gradual development and usually those options are further east too.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Update -- Wed 19 Aug 2020 -- 6 p.m.

    The core of storm Ellen is rapidly developing around 50N 10W and heading for a landfall near or just east of Cork/Cobh in east-central county Cork or at the very furthest east, western border area of county Waterford.

    A red alert has been issued by Met E for county Cork and I believe that red alert conditions could verify locally in an area including parts of Cork, Limerick, Waterford, Tipps, Kilkenny, Carlow, Wexford and higher inland parts of Kerry as well as southeast Clare.

    The red alert conditions would be for wind damage (130-160 km/hr) in eastern portions of that zone and for rainfall and flooding potential in the western half (rainfall will be highest about 10-30 miles west of the track of the northward moving centre). Rainfalls of 30-50 mm in twelve hour periods can produce moderate to severe flash flooding of short-cycle watersheds (the impact on larger rivers would be felt somewhat later and would include rain that might fall after Ellen). Storm surge may become an issue in east Cork and Waterford, and possibly some parts of Wexford. I don't think this would be catastrophic but could do some damage to shoreline properties.

    By the time the centre reaches east Galway and Roscommon around midnight to 0300h, conditions will have moderated slightly to orange alert, winds gusting to 120 km/hr and rainfalls of 20-40 mm. This could still cause some localized damage and flooding.

    Most parts of Leinster away from the southern counties, and some central and eastern parts of Ulster, will have relatively moderate impacts from winds gusting to about 110-120 km/hr and rainfalls of 10-20 mm.

    For Mayo, expect some locally heavy rainfalls mainly over higher terrain and in the east, and an interval of strong wind gusts along the coast. For Sligo, Leitrim and Donegal, the effects will be most pronounced around 0300-0600h and an orange alert may be justified there also. For most of Ulster otherwise the impacts will diminish further east except in a few exposed coastal locations.

    The worst of the storm should last about 3-6 hours and conditions will slowly improve after it has passed to the north by 50-100 miles of any given point.

    An update around 9 p.m. on landfall parameters will be issued.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Update (2) _ Landfall predictions (Wed 19 Aug 2020 _ 8:45 p.m.)
    _________________________________________

    The eye of "Ellen" (Kyle in drag?) has come into view on Shannon radar and is located about 70 miles south of Baltimore heading north-northeast. This makes landfall more likely to be close to Kinsale and a track across the Cork-Cobh region towards Limerick. Severe wind impacts are more likely to the east of this track as far east as Waterford and possibly Wexford. Landfall is estimated for 10 p.m. with the onset of strongest winds around then to 11 p.m.

    With the rapid development, would anticipate some gusts above 140 km/hr and substantial wind damage potential. Storm surge possible east Cork and Waterford coasts.

    Move to safer shelter if possible, if currently located in a caravan park or very exposed coastal building. Wind speeds will gradually reduce along the track as the storm moves inland but higher south-facing slopes could see damaging gusts inland too.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 20 August, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 20 to 26 August 2020

    -- Temperatures will average near normal although nights 1-2 deg above normal, days 1-2 deg below.
    -- Rainfall will continue to average 50 to 75 per cent above normal.
    -- Sunshine will struggle to reach 50 per cent of average values.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be rather windy and unsettled with passing showers and some lines of thunderstorms affecting west Munster, midlands, and later on east and southeast regions. Rainfalls rather variable in the 5-15 mm range for most. Added to copious amounts that fell in some western counties from Ellen, this could either produce or continue ongoing flooding in a few spots. Some brief sunny breaks will be in the mix too however, and highs 16 to 19 C, with winds generally southwest 50 to 80 km/hr, some higher gusts especially near Atlantic and south coasts.

    TONIGHT will be unsettled with further showers and thunderstorms at times, moderate gusty south to southwest winds, and 5-10 mm rainfall potential for most areas, lows near 13 C.

    FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with occasional showers and moderate south to southwest winds. Some outbreaks of heavy rain are possible, will monitor this and get more specific when details come into clearer focus. Highs will be around 17 C.

    SATURDAY will be breezy, rather cool, with passing showers, lows near 11 C and highs near 17 C.

    SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with intervals of rain developing, possibly heavy overnight into Monday, lows near 11 C and highs near 17 C.

    MONDAY will start out wet and then see some improvements later, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

    TUESDAY will be mostly cloudy with occasional rain, possibly heavy at times, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

    The further outlook calls for somewhat improved weather conditions by mid-week with longer dry intervals and some sunshine possible at times, highs near 20 C, but that won't last too long before more Atlantic frontal systems come calling.

    My local weather was sunny with increasing higher cloud, very warm with highs near 30 C. Fully overcast now at about 11 p.m. local time. During the arrival of "Ellen" we passed the new moon which occurred around 0300h 19th, which means a crescent new moon should be visible in the evening skies this weekend.

    Thanks for all the reports sent in on the dedicated storm thread, it was very interesting comparing reports from different sectors of the storm (while some counties were more or less out of the action).


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 21 August, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 August 2020

    -- Temperatures will average near normal values.
    -- Rainfall will average about 25 to 50 per cent above normal, higher values in the north.
    -- Sunshine will average 50 per cent of normal.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with outbreaks of showery rain more frequent in west and north. Winds moderate southwest 50 to 70 km/hr will sometimes increase to near 90 km/hr in some coastal and exposed higher locations. Highs 16 to 19 C. Rainfall accumulations 5-10 mm.

    TONIGHT will remain cloudy with further showers, lows around 9 to 11 C.

    SATURDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, breezy, and somewhat cooler again with highs 15 to 18 C, winds westerly 40 to 70 km/hr.

    SUNDAY will have less windy conditions and variable amounts of cloud with a few showers, then an interval of rain setting in by evening west, overnight further east. Lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C.

    MONDAY will bring some intervals of rain followed by partly cloudy conditions, lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C.

    TUESDAY looks very wet and windy now, an Atlantic low not quite a match for Ellen but rather autumnal looking, will produce 20-40 mm rainfalls and gusty southwest winds at times with temperatures held down to the 13-16 C range for most, possibly closer to 19 C in parts of Munster.

    Some slight improvements should follow (it could hardly be otherwise) but then more wind and rain is likely to follow any breaks, and temperatures will stay in the near normal range overall, with little variation night to daytime.

    My local weather on Thursday was partly cloudy to overcast, rather warm and humid, with a few spotty showers giving just trace amounts of rain. Highs here were near 26 C.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 22 August, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 Aug 2020

    -- Temperatures will average about 1 deg below normal values.
    -- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal.
    -- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers, a few thunderstorms possible, and moderate southwest winds 40 to 70 km/hr. Highs 16 to 19 C, rainfalls about 5 mm.

    TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, lows near 8 C.

    SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with isolated showers, somewhat more widespread by evening. Rather cool for late August with highs only 14 to 17 C.

    MONDAY will see increasing cloud and the arrival of what I'm calling "almost Ellen" from the southwest, bringing heavy rainfalls and strong south to southwest winds by the overnight hours into early Tuesday. Monday's morning low around 7 C and afternoon high around 19 C. Peak wind gusts could be 110 km/hr or higher, stay tuned.

    TUESDAY the storm as yet un-named (but it could be) will begin to pull away, winds will remain strong westerly for most of the day with lines of squally showers separated by partly cloudy dry intervals. Winds westerly 60 to 100 km/hr will ease later in the day. Total rainfalls of 20-40 mm possible from this fast-moving weather system could produce further flooding. Track options at the moment range from just north of Connacht and Ulster, to a direct hit on Munster into Leinster. Either way there would be very strong winds and heavy rainfalls in much of the country.

    The further outlook is quite cool and not particularly wet although a few showers are likely from time to time, in a northerly airstream, with daytime highs only 13 to 16 C, nights possibly as cold as 3 to 7 C. This will persist for several days before another unsettled interval begins, near the end of August.

    My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy, warm and humid with highs near 27 C. It's a clear night now with comfortable temperatures around 17 C.


Advertisement