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Storm Jorge : February 29th

13567…34

Comments

  • #62
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,702 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    esposito wrote: »
    No mention of snow in the forecast for Saturday. Just sleet and hail...

    like most westerly events, the snow part will likely get downgraded a lot and reduced to northern areas before Saturday, Met Eireann won't mention it until they are certain there is the possibility of snow in certain areas on Saturday. There is enough to concern people with the wind and potential flooding.


  • #63
    uck51js9zml2yt
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,268 ✭✭✭✭uck51js9zml2yt


    ChristyM wrote: »
    I see the National Emergency Coordination Group is to meet tomorrow in advance of Storm Jorge

    https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0227/1117923-weather-warning/

    PS That's a nice photo of Fenit

    Ummmm.... Fenit or ballyheigue peir on Saturday with the camera???


  • #64
    redsteveireland
    Registered Users Posts: 3,033 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    endainoz wrote: »
    I'm fairly sure more rain is due later tonight, so I'd say there could be a good chance of more flooding. Todays break from the rain was badly wanted

    Flooding has not really gone down much in some places in particular, surprised to see a road I travelled last Thursday is pretty much the same tonight.


  • #65
    Snow Garden
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    The water levels are starting to decline now albeit slowly. The snow/ice on the mountains will also reduce the runoff.
    It will be interesting to see what happens after Jorge.


  • #66
    Kingswood Rover
    Registered Users Posts: 778 ✭✭✭Kingswood Rover


    weather is too bad here for Mr C


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  • #67
    glack
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭glack


    When is the worst of the weather forecast for on the west coast? Warning is for a 21 hour window which isn’t exactly specific.


  • #68
    watlantic
    Registered Users Posts: 155 ✭✭watlantic


    The latest OPC charts for Saturday 12:00 UTC (below) point to a very severe storm with hurricane force winds and extremely high seas. If these predictions materialise then Jorge (which I still call Ellen :p) could well turn out to be the worst storm this season.


  • #69
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Multiple models including the HIRLAM (the meaty bits are just out of range) seem to be suggesting this could well be a blizzard event - or at least rain to snow to rain.

    iconeu_uk1-1-48-0.png?27-16

    hirlamuk-1-47-0.png?27-17

    48-574UK.GIF?27-12

    nmmuk-1-48-0.png?27-17


  • #70
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Hi Res Swiss model, don't know much about it but have seen it to be quite accurate.Just runs to 12.00 Sat . Next run will be complete in a couple of hours.


    qmOu73X.png


    OJSgYP3.png


    eLLdiwq.png


  • #71
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    HIRLAM Hi Res just coming into range, mean speeds of 85 /90 km/h on the coasts of Kerry / Clare there , mean of 100 / 110 km/h just off or coming onto the coasts on that map. Similar track to the ECM, think ICON and ARPEGE are too far North.

    anim_bam3.gif

    anim_nzv6.gif


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  • #72
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭[Deleted User]


    Snow Garden wrote: »
    The water levels are starting to decline now albeit slowly. The snow/ice on the mountains will also reduce the runoff.
    It will be interesting to see what happens after Jorge.
    Dropped 3cm in Athlone, will be soon going up again though.


  • #73
    Mount Vesuvius
    Registered Users Posts: 269 ✭✭Mount Vesuvius


    Harmonie showing strong max gusts at 10metres over land . I can't see the west coast but I imagine gusts will be reaching 130+ kph in parts. South east coast looks hit hard too for a time.

    anim_upl6.gif


  • #74
    watlantic
    Registered Users Posts: 155 ✭✭watlantic


    Meteorite58 wrote: »
    Hi Res Swiss model, don't know much about it but have seen it to be quite accurate.Just runs to 12.00 Sat . Next run will be complete in a couple of hours.

    Swiss Meteologix is owned by disgraced Swiss meteorologist Joerg (not Jorge :D) Kachelmann, a commercial 'weather salesman and/or weather showman', but quite interesting.
    Anyway, ECMWF and GFS models are in close agreement and have the storm near or just off the NW coast, both at 954 hPa, by noon on Saturday. Both have it moving relatively slowly around peak time, so a prolonged spell of stormy conditions may be expected.


  • #75
    spookwoman
    Registered Users Posts: 9,922 ✭✭✭spookwoman


    nthclare wrote: »
    Magicseaweed is predicting 22ft waves in Lahinch on Saturday.
    Probably 16 would be more realistic.

    Although at high tide Black Head could be a spectacular show of a swell hitting hard.

    Need a spring tide for the proper waves. I see it here in Tramore need at least a 4m tide with 18ft+ waves for the truly big ones


  • #76
    Snow Garden
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    I am annoyed George Lee is reporting this storm. He'll ruin it.


  • #77
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Swiss Meteologix is owned by disgraced Swiss meteorologist Joerg (not Jorge ) Kachelmann, a commercial 'weather salesman and/or weather showman', but quite interesting.

    Must check it out more.

    GFS 18Z Strong mean speeds as the strong winds move up along the coast, probably 90 to 100 km/h mean along the coast, gusting 130 km/h, maybe higher on exposed parts. Very strong inland in most areas gusting 100 to 110 km/h. And they are steady strong winds, not just blowing over with a front, most places getting the strongest winds for 3 or 4 hrs on avg I think, along parts of the coasts maybe 5 or 6 hrs with the strongest winds , remaining strong on coasts into Sunday.



    anim_lbj6.gif

    anim_ctg2.gif

    anim_teb5.gif


  • #78
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,702 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    if anything tonights GFS is a slight upgrade for wind speeds compared to the afternoon run. Strongest wind speeds off the Galway and Mayo coasts and over land between Galway and Dublin. Irish sea between north Wicklow and Meath looks fairly rough as well.

    45-289UK.GIF?27-18

    Icon brings gusts between 150 and 180km/h into exposed and high ground parts of Donegal. Icon being as over the top as ever.

    iconeu_uk1-11-44-0.png?27-22


  • #79
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Gonzo wrote: »
    if anything tonights GFS is a slight upgrade for wind speeds compared to the afternoon run. Strongest wind speeds off the Galway and Mayo coasts and over land between Galway and Dublin. Irish sea between north Wicklow and Meath looks fairly rough as well.

    I think an upgrade all right and seems to be locking on to that track and strength more or less.

    Going to be a wild day with every type of precipitation thrown at us and savage cold , more so after the relatively mild day tomorrow.


    arpegeuk-43-50-0_ttc3.png


  • #80
    jobeenfitz
    Registered Users Posts: 2,443 ✭✭✭jobeenfitz


    Would it be probable/certain that flight from Shannon to Spain at 3pm Saturday afternoon will be very delayed?


  • #81
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,319 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    pad199207 wrote: »
    George Lee nailing it all “The Spanish noticed it first”

    Jorge wept. ;)


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  • #82
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,881 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    jobeenfitz wrote: »
    Would it be probable/certain that flight from Shannon to Spain at 3pm Saturday afternoon will be very delayed?

    It's likely that it will be delayed but not certain.
    The storm looks like peaking before noon in the West so I would plan as normal


  • #83
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,871 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Might blow the coronavirus back to China if ICON verifies


  • #84
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ARPEGE still further N but a bit closer to Ireland on this track , packs a nasty punch into the W on the this run. It might move the center further S bringing the stronger winds initially more towards Kerry and Clare before moving up along the coast.

    anim_wlj9.gif

    anim_adq2.gif


  • #85
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,319 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    18z RGEM shows 949 mb at 06z near 55N 15W, centre off their grid by 18z.

    This seems to be in line with GGEM guidance from 12z if perhaps a touch stronger yet.

    If there are no downgrades by 00z runs, we may be hearing talk of red alerts. This storm appears to be planning to bring the core winds to the coast, unlike the great majority of these 950 mb type lows that peak somewhere out around 57N 18W.

    There could be 90 knot or 150-160 km/hr gusts associated if this does max out.

    Most guidance quite similar for track and timing. The low following (now in Maine-Quebec) is a "kicker" in old school parlance (a good wavelength between simultaneously deepening storms).

    This could be the worst storm since Darwin the way things are developing (but with peak impacts somewhat further north than Darwin).


  • #86
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭[Deleted User]


    Looks like it's going to be a wild weather weekend. Can we get a separate thread so I can talk shiiite about it without getting a warning?


  • #87
    Monkeynut
    Registered Users Posts: 589 ✭✭✭Monkeynut


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Looks like it's going to be a wild weather weekend. Can we get a separate thread so I can talk shiiite about it without getting a warning?


    Yes, and do it the opposite way this time.

    Make sure the technical thread title isn't highlighted. So it helps to not lure chat into it. :cool:
    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    This could be the worst storm since Darwin the way things are developing (but with peak impacts somewhat further north than Darwin).

    Any predictions for Dublin? Or are we too south for the strongest!!


  • #88
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,319 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Angle of approach seems to suggest Dublin not in the line of fire on this occasion, not to say it won't become very windy at times but this looks like it might peak at 55-60 knot gusts for Dublin even if 80 plus verified on west coast (south coast between those ranges, 70'ish).

    Pointless to speculate more until we get a bit closer. This low by the way is currently showing up at about 51N 27W (from satellite and extrapolating CMC 18z with track) and in a few minutes I'll be seeing a map with an estimated central pressure at 00z but it's probably around 990 mbs dropping steadily but not yet rapidly. Not looking that well-organized yet, but here again, the majority of these storms seem to peak a bit too early to deliver strongest winds to Irish coast.

    Will edit in or perhaps repost with the updated centre co-ordinates and pressure.

    Here's a link to the satellite imagery, it should update automatically for later readers (check time stamp on map).

    https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_sigwx_1070_100.jpg

    The "kicker" is at its peak of development now, much more sharply defined over eastern Canada. But bear in mind that Jorge is going to be 20-25 mbs deeper by Saturday than the kicker is currently over Quebec and Maine (it has twin centres now).

    (added later 992 mb near 51N 29W on map although my estimate would fit the rest of the isobars a bit better so take yer pick.


  • #89
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,319 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    All guidance so far (00z models) showing upgrades to wind speeds on the order of 5-10 knots. Arpege for example has 140-150 km/hr hitting directly around Westport-Clifden. GEM and ICON also looking stronger, ICON may be closer to steady in comparison to earlier run.

    If this continues expect red alerts for at least western counties. There's a tendency to downplay the potential for gust strength on south coast that I would not necessarily accept as "settled science."

    Low centre appears to be rapidly developing now around 53N 25W.


  • #90
    Graces7
    Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Posts as always full of wisdom!

    Many thanks to all. Forewarned is good.

    Heavy rain on and off all night and deluging now; still more of a slow waltz than a frantic fandango as there is little wind.

    Bitterly cold. .

    All is permanently battened down out here....

    Take care!


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  • #91
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    All guidance so far (00z models) showing upgrades to wind speeds on the order of 5-10 knots. Arpege for example has 140-150 km/hr hitting directly around Westport-Clifden. GEM and ICON also looking stronger, ICON may be closer to steady in comparison to earlier run.

    If this continues expect red alerts for at least western counties. There's a tendency to downplay the potential for gust strength on south coast that I would not necessarily accept as "settled science."

    Low centre appears to be rapidly developing now around 53N 25W.

    So once it approaches the west coast its trajectory heads to a northern angle. Is this correct? Is this why Dubkin could be saved worst of the winds?


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