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squarecircles · 22-01-2020, 12:32

squarecircles · 22-01-2020, 12:32

typhoony · 22-01-2020, 15:20

Not sure this low is being handled correctly by the models, I suggest it might take a more southerly track into the UK

Kermit.de.frog · 22-01-2020, 19:18

Ok so we are up a notch now on the ECM for snow potential between Sunday and Tuesday.

Be interesting to see if the other models coalesce around this over the next 24 hours (it will also dispence with stormy potential mentioned above)

If they do there is a snow thread coming...

Snow Garden · 22-01-2020, 19:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kermit.de.frog

Ok so we are up a notch now on the ECM for snow potential between Sunday and Tuesday.

Be interesting to see if the other models coalesce around this over the next 24 hours (it will also dispence with stormy potential mentioned above)

If they do there is a snow thread coming...

Please make it so Kermit!

Donegal Storm · 22-01-2020, 21:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kermit.de.frog

Ok so we are up a notch now on the ECM for snow potential between Sunday and Tuesday.

Be interesting to see if the other models coalesce around this over the next 24 hours (it will also dispence with stormy potential mentioned above)

If they do there is a snow thread coming...

Looks like nothing more than slushy muck that melts between showers to me at the moment, westerlies rarely amount to anything enjoyable. Better than nothing though I guess

nacho libre · 22-01-2020, 23:17

The snow could settle nicely at night, but its unlikely to stick around during the day. I will be happy with that considering how the winter has gone so far. However if you are after a foot of snow and ice days you will not be happy!

Naggdefy · 23-01-2020, 11:23

Please Mr. Scandi High. Move a bit north and west and get much stronger, Valentine's might be lovely yet

odyboody · 23-01-2020, 12:24

Quote:

Originally Posted by Naggdefy

Please Mr. Scandi High. Move a bit north and west and get much stronger, Valentine's might be lovely yet

Looks good, however don't think there is much cold air to our east to get dragged over us even if we get an easterly

Naggdefy · 23-01-2020, 13:12

Quote:

Originally Posted by odyboody

Looks good, however don't think there is much cold air to our east to get dragged over us even if we get an easterly

It's pie in the sky FI alright. Though I think the GFS FI shows some cold sinking into eastern Europe by that stage. But -10 uppers on the Polish/Russian border isn't too impressive. And an awful lot would have to go right to get to at least -6 uppers from the east here by mid February.

Naggdefy · 23-01-2020, 13:20

Strangely enough Greenland is really where it's at this winter. Seriously impressive cold. Synoptics that would bring a flow from there (hard to sustain like an easterly for any period of time though) might be our best shot for February and early next week also.

I've never seen so many 'white' areas of uppers -32 to -40 over Greenland as there has been this January and predicted into FI. The cold is seriously bottled up.

Jin luk · 23-01-2020, 13:32

No low lying snow we never get it off a northwesterly hopeful thinking from everyone in this and its not cold enough in the east to get excited about a strong easterly, plenty of sleet and thats all

sryanbruen · 23-01-2020, 13:41

The coldest I've seen up there on Meteociel reanalysed charts is this from January 1984 (which was a notably cold month for being so unsettled and dominated by northwesterly winds) although the scale doesn't go nearly as far and I have not looked at too many of these.

There is a lack of cold air to be had in the continent this winter as has been said many times but it's also important to keep in mind that continental landmasses can cool down very quickly especially during January to March timeframe. That Scandi High (in the extended frames of the GFS

) is not quite set up right anyway to give us a very cold easterly as the WAA to our west is displaced, it should be more southerly sourced to inflate the high and send cold air out on the eastern side. 2009 is a perfect example of this.

No sign at all from teleconnections of a pattern change through early February and in fact, there's some evidence of a strengthening of the tropospheric polar vortex again. Rinse and repeat.

Naggdefy · 23-01-2020, 13:52

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jin luk

No low lying snow we never get it off a northwesterly hopeful thinking from everyone in this and its not cold enough in the east to get excited about a strong easterly, plenty of sleet and thats all

Depends on who 'we' are

North and northwest, north midlands can do well. I've done well ocassionally in south Laois due to altitude.

Jin luk · 23-01-2020, 15:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by Naggdefy

Depends on who 'we' are

North and northwest, north midlands can do well. I've done well ocassionally in south Laois due to altitude.

South monaghan we get good snow with easterlys not so much with a west or north westerly

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22-01-2020, 12:32	#211
squarecircles Registered User Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 1,637 Adverts \| Friends

22-01-2020, 12:32	#212
squarecircles Registered User Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 1,637 Adverts \| Friends

22-01-2020, 15:20	#213
typhoony Registered User Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 1,101 Adverts \| Friends	Not sure this low is being handled correctly by the models, I suggest it might take a more southerly track into the UK

22-01-2020, 19:18	#214
Kermit.de.frog Registered User Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 18,104 Adverts \| Friends	Ok so we are up a notch now on the ECM for snow potential between Sunday and Tuesday. Be interesting to see if the other models coalesce around this over the next 24 hours (it will also dispence with stormy potential mentioned above) If they do there is a snow thread coming...

22-01-2020, 23:17	#217
nacho libre Registered User Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 14,058 Adverts \| Friends	The snow could settle nicely at night, but its unlikely to stick around during the day. I will be happy with that considering how the winter has gone so far. However if you are after a foot of snow and ice days you will not be happy!

23-01-2020, 11:23	#218
Naggdefy Join Date: Aug 2019 Posts: 1,975	Please Mr. Scandi High. Move a bit north and west and get much stronger, Valentine's might be lovely yet

23-01-2020, 13:20	#221
Naggdefy Join Date: Aug 2019 Posts: 1,975	Strangely enough Greenland is really where it's at this winter. Seriously impressive cold. Synoptics that would bring a flow from there (hard to sustain like an easterly for any period of time though) might be our best shot for February and early next week also. I've never seen so many 'white' areas of uppers -32 to -40 over Greenland as there has been this January and predicted into FI. The cold is seriously bottled up.

23-01-2020, 13:32	#222
Jin luk Registered User Join Date: Dec 2019 Posts: 381 Adverts \| Friends	No low lying snow we never get it off a northwesterly hopeful thinking from everyone in this and its not cold enough in the east to get excited about a strong easterly, plenty of sleet and thats all

23-01-2020, 13:41	#223
sryanbruen Registered User Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 11,199 Adverts \| Friends	The coldest I've seen up there on Meteociel reanalysed charts is this from January 1984 (which was a notably cold month for being so unsettled and dominated by northwesterly winds) although the scale doesn't go nearly as far and I have not looked at too many of these. There is a lack of cold air to be had in the continent this winter as has been said many times but it's also important to keep in mind that continental landmasses can cool down very quickly especially during January to March timeframe. That Scandi High (in the extended frames of the GFS ) is not quite set up right anyway to give us a very cold easterly as the WAA to our west is displaced, it should be more southerly sourced to inflate the high and send cold air out on the eastern side. 2009 is a perfect example of this. No sign at all from teleconnections of a pattern change through early February and in fact, there's some evidence of a strengthening of the tropospheric polar vortex again. Rinse and repeat.