FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Oneiric 3 · 05-02-2020 2:01pm

Multimodel meteogram for Galway for wind gusts over the next 10 days. Fairly good agreement regarding weekend's event, but ECMWF (blue) consistently on its own regarding potential extreme gusts for the following mid-week event.

If it proves to be the most correct in the end, then fair play, but the odds don't look great at this stage.

nthclare · 05-02-2020 2:29pm

For Monday Magicseaweed seaweed is predicting huge swell and up to 20ft at 18 seconds.

If they're right it's going to be another big show at Lahinch and Doolin

pauldry · 05-02-2020 2:44pm

Every GFS run has the stormy period a different day

Will it be stormy every day?

My gates still broke from Brendan.

And still finding debris in garden too from that

Gaoth Laidir · 05-02-2020 2:47pm

300-hPa winds off the scale on Sunday. The 928-hPa low put in the by the Met Office for Iceland/Greenland for Saturday doesn't get below 940 hPa on the ECMWF, however it does come up with an absolute humdinger of 924 hPa in mid-Atlantic on Friday week! Interesting times ahead, with lots of twists and turns.

Gonzo · 05-02-2020 3:26pm

next weeks storms certainly don't look nearly as bad as what was shown a few days ago, gone are the insane wind speeds of 150km/h. If anything Sunday looks to be the worst of the winds with speeds of between 80km/h and 110km/h

96-289UK.GIF?05-6

Sunday looks very windy for the UK too with wind speeds not often this high in populated areas like London.

Monday looks fairly windy but won't be bad as Sunday, and Tuesday is now looking not too bad as low as 20 to 35km/h.

Thursday looks like another possibly significant storm, bringing winds up to 120 or 130km/h in the west and close to 100km/h in eastern areas.

186-289UK.GIF?05-6

Looking further ahead, a third storm could drop around Valentines day with wind speeds close to 100km/h with that one too.

The doomsday weather bomb thankfully is no longer there, but the next week to 10 days is going to have some extremely windy conditions. I'm sure we will have several nationwide warnings in place during this time period with 3 possible storms on the way.

This winter has been a snorefest overall up to this week, so next week will certainly be different. The past 4 days have been fascinating for weather watching, if a little scary at times, and plenty of more runs with possible downgrades and upgrades to come.

In terms of cold, it looks fairly typical cold zonal, each run brings it's set of upgrades and downgrades. I think most of us will see flakes next week but probably very few of us will see actual snow lying on the ground in any measurable quantities, but usual places such as Knock and hills of the north-west could do very well out of this, with temporary dustings on lower ground. The Wicklow mountains could also get a covering next week.

162-780UK.GIF?05-6

Donegal Ken · 05-02-2020 3:48pm

As that band of rain moves in on Saturday afternoon and evening the main risk of wintry precipitation will be across the Northwest and North with snow over higher elevations and a mix of rain, sleet and hail to lower levels. That is a very low risk at present.

Monday main risk will be across the west, northwest and north especially over the late afternoon, evening and night with snowfall for higher ground areas and some lower level areas with the ongoing risk of thunderstorms across Connacht and Ulster especially around Donegal, Sligo, Leitrim, Mayo, Fermanagh, Tyrone and Derry.

Elsewhere will tend to be a mix of rain, sleet and hail and with them strong westerly winds on Monday showers will tend make it further inland.

Going by the latest upper air temperatures from the latest GFS and ECMWF Model late Monday, Tuesday and early Wednesday would be the best timeframe for seen any snowfall.

pauldry · 05-02-2020 5:26pm

I dont think any storm risk is gone

Any wind gusts over 120kph cause extensive damage and any storm that has gusted this speed in Sligo has broken something in my back yard be it trees in Elanors case or Rooves and gates in Brendan's for example

Gonzo · 05-02-2020 5:39pm

pauldry wrote: »

I dont think any storm risk is gone

Any wind gusts over 120kph cause extensive damage and any storm that has gusted this speed in Sligo has broken something in my back yard be it trees in Elanors case or Rooves and gates in Brendan's for example

the storm risk is still there, there are 3 of them, but what is gone is the insane speeds. A few days ago we were looking at 130 to 170km/h gusts, even inland across all parts of the country. Now we're looking at anything up to 130km/h in the west and probably 100km/h in the east. Offshore could get higher than this so it will still be a decent storm but not the once in a lifetime event it was looking like a few days ago.

Donegal Ken · 05-02-2020 5:47pm

Met Éireann have issued a update on storm Ciara

issued 15:00, Wednesday, 5th February, 2020, by Matthew Martin, Meteorologist, Forecast Division, Evelyn Cusack, Head of Forecasting, and Eoin Sherlock, Head of Flood Forecast Division

Unsettled weather is expected to develop across Ireland and Northwest Europe this weekend. The change will occur as very cold air sweeps out of Canada into the North Atlantic creating a sharp temperature contrast in the atmosphere over the ocean. This temperature contrast will result in the intensification of the jet stream over the North Atlantic, which will drive vigorous areas of low pressure towards Ireland.

After a period of rather quiet weather, the change to unsettled mobile conditions will occur during Friday (7th Feb) as wet and windy weather moves in from the Atlantic. A further spell of heavy rain is expected on Saturday (8th Feb) and this will be accompanied by strong and gusty winds with a possibility of Status Yellow warnings.

Weather conditions are expected to deteriorate further on Sunday (9th Feb) as Storm Ciara (named by the UK Met Office on Wednesday 5th February) tracks to the north of Ireland.

Storm Ciara is forecast to be a vigorous Atlantic storm system with an expansive wind-field. Numerical Weather Prediction Models project the centre of the storm to track close to northern Scotland with a minimum central pressure of around 940hPa at lunchtime Sunday.

There is a growing consensus that Sunday will be an extremely windy day across Ireland and the UK with widespread heavy rain, squally showers and with gales or storm force winds around our coasts.

Storm Ciara is the third named storm of the season. The naming convention now also includes the Dutch meteorological service, KNMI as well as our existing partner UKMO. Storms are named to aid the communication of approaching severe weather, helping the public to be better placed to keep themselves, their property and businesses safe.

Next week, conditions will remain very disturbed across Ireland and the UK. It will remain very windy and turn much colder with the chance of wintry showers and ice in some parts.

Flooding issues

The country will enter a period of Spring Tides this weekend. This will coincide with high seas, which are likely to affect coastal areas at first on Saturday but will continue into Sunday and the early days of next week. The combination of high Spring Tides and high seas as well as extremely windy or stormy conditions later in the weekend and early next week will result in an elevated risk of coastal flooding especially along western and southern coasts.

The unsettled weather is likely to produce significant rainfall totals over the weekend. This will result in an increase in river levels and may cause some localised flooding.

Keep up to date

As forecast confidence improves over the coming days Met Eireann will issue warnings as required. Please check for updates on https://www.met.ie/warnings.

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/meteorologists-commentary

typhoony · 05-02-2020 5:49pm

Gonzo wrote: »

the storm risk is still there, there are 3 of them, but what is gone is the insane speeds. A few days ago we were looking at 130 to 170km/h gusts, even inland across all parts of the country. Now we're looking at anything up to 130km/h in the west and probably 100km/h in the east. Offshore could get higher than this so it will still be a decent storm but not the once in a lifetime event it was looking like a few days ago.

once we get past mid-February the major events become less likely, we've had a few wind events in March in recent years, the only ones I can remember are Jake and Gareth but they were at the lower end of the scale

TTLF · 05-02-2020 5:55pm

Gonzo wrote: »

the storm risk is still there, there are 3 of them, but what is gone is the insane speeds. A few days ago we were looking at 130 to 170km/h gusts, even inland across all parts of the country. Now we're looking at anything up to 130km/h in the west and probably 100km/h in the east. Offshore could get higher than this so it will still be a decent storm but not the once in a lifetime event it was looking like a few days ago.

Each storm is a one in a lifetime event Gonzo remember that

No storms the same haha

Oneiric 3 · 05-02-2020 6:09pm

Gonzo wrote: »

the storm risk is still there, there are 3 of them, but what is gone is the insane speeds. A few days ago we were looking at 130 to 170km/h gusts, even inland across all parts of the country. Now we're looking at anything up to 130km/h in the west and probably 100km/h in the east. Offshore could get higher than this so it will still be a decent storm but not the once in a lifetime event it was looking like a few days ago.

Yes, would agree. Sat/Sun hold some interest for the time being in that they could prove pretty wild across our wee isle. In some ways, the forecast pattern for this weekend reminds me of that of early December 2015, when we had a pretty long stretch of 40 to 50 knot gusts and driving heavy rain. Don't think it will be as bad this time around (it is unlikely to last as long) but will come as a shock to the system of the current very benign, spring-like spell. One thing about 'warm sector' gales is that they tend to be somewhat more sustained and less spontaneously gusty than those cooler, occluded sector winds as we would be more typically used to.

endainoz · 05-02-2020 6:11pm

typhoony wrote: »

once we get past mid-February the major events become less likely, we've had a few wind events in March in recent years, the only ones I can remember are Jake and Gareth but they were at the lower end of the scale

Don't forget Emma was at the very end of February!

Oneiric 3 · 05-02-2020 6:19pm

pauldry wrote: »

I dont think any storm risk is gone

Any wind gusts over 120kph cause extensive damage and any storm that has gusted this speed in Sligo has broken something in my back yard be it trees in Elanors case or Rooves and gates in Brendan's for example

Last time I remember winds doing any sort of significant damage to my back yard was (I think) March 2008, when overnight winds 'disappeared' some of my wooden fence panelling.

Donegal Ken · 05-02-2020 6:53pm

endainoz wrote: »

Don't forget Emma was at the very end of February!

Emma was really just a standard low and was named by the Portuguese Met Office.

The reason it was so talked about was due to the rainfall and moist air moving into that very cold air during the beast from the east.

If no cold air was sitting across Ireland that time it would of just been a standard low with some wet and breezy weather.

endainoz · 05-02-2020 7:13pm

Donegal Ken wrote: »

Emma was really just a standard low and was named by the Portuguese Met Office.

The reason it was so talked about was due to the rainfall and moist air moving into that very cold air during the beast from the east.

If no cold air was sitting across Ireland that time it would of just been a standard low with some wet and breezy weather.

Luckily it wasn't and we got a once in a lifetime snow event! I recall some decent yellow warning short storm in June a year or so ago? Very odd time of year for it to happen.

I get the original point though, definitely less likely from mid Feb onwards.

Oneiric 3 · 05-02-2020 7:21pm

Donegal Ken wrote: »

If no cold air was sitting across Ireland that time it would of just been a standard low with some wet and breezy weather.

If there was no cold air over Ireland/N Europe at the time it would be unlikely that 'Emma' would have developed the way it did.

Crap drawing to illustrate:

Meteorite58 · 05-02-2020 7:40pm

Mod Note : Would remind posters to keep this thread for model / technical discussion in the +120 hr range and please and use the appropriate threads.

Thanks

Oneiric 3 · 05-02-2020 10:18pm

Animation chart showing development of the north Atlantic jet stream over the coming days (too big to post as animated gif image on here)

https://imgur.com/a/qlMzVTs

Reversal · 06-02-2020 1:48pm

Glimmer of hope perhaps....

Gonzo · 06-02-2020 8:16pm

Reversal wrote: »

Glimmer of hope perhaps....

a few glimmers are starting to show for the end of February, perhaps beginning of March. The Beijing climate center continues to show flat westerlies for the next 2 to 3 weeks, then a big change in the final days of February with a Scandinavian high and substantial blocking. The blocking intensifies into March and starts to extend towards Greenland. This could potentially turn the winds into the east and winter could be unleashed for the first time since 2018. This is the first suggestion of this I've seen all winter but definitely a massively enormous pinch of salt is involved.

I've had a look at the CFS as well and it tries to get an easterly going into the first week of March with proper blocking over Scandinavia.

Both of these are well beyond FI and extremely unreliable but it is the first time I've seen the long range models trying to break away from the Atlantic dominance of the past 5 months. We shall see what happens.

Gonzo · 07-02-2020 12:15am

and to follow on from my above post, tonight's GFS wants to get the winds into the east as well as we enter the final week of February, with heights rising towards Greenland, let's see what happens with this.

Can I smell a major pattern change taking place last week of February, into the first week of March?

nacho libre · 07-02-2020 11:41am

Has there been some sort of warming in the stratosphere?

Gonzo · 07-02-2020 1:44pm

nacho libre wrote: »

Has there been some sort of warming in the stratosphere?

yes there has but not a SSW, just a moderate warming. Doesn't look strong enough to affect us in any way.

pauldry · 07-02-2020 2:41pm

GFS has an all out blizzard towards the end of next week on 6z

No doubt itl turn out mild and dry with temperatures of 9 to 11c

mahoney_j · 07-02-2020 3:42pm

pauldry wrote: »

GFS has an all out blizzard towards the end of next week on 6z

No doubt itl turn out mild and dry with temperatures of 9 to 11c

Hopefully

Meteorite58 · 08-02-2020 4:17pm

ECM keping the windy theme going next weekend , at that stage could be much milder.

Meteorite58 · 08-02-2020 7:56pm

GFS showing quite unsettled the weekend coming also.

typhoony · 08-02-2020 8:18pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

GFS showing quite unsettled the weekend coming also.

ECM and UKMO hinting at the Lows taking a more northerly track in the Atlantic, I think we may see a period of more settled weather with average temperatures. first signs of spring hopefully in a few weeks time

Gonzo · 08-02-2020 9:27pm

typhoony wrote: »

ECM and UKMO hinting at the Lows taking a more northerly track in the Atlantic, I think we may see a period of more settled weather with average temperatures. first signs of spring hopefully in a few weeks time

the second half of February may prove milder than the first half, looks generally milder from next Friday but remaining very unsettled. The final 7 to 10 days of February are still too far out to decide what might happen.

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST