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Snow Ice Warning for Ireland 29 Jan to 03 Feb 2019 *See Mod Note in OP *

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Comments

  • #92
    Atlantic Dawn
    Registered Users Posts: 81,112 ✭✭✭✭Atlantic Dawn
    M


    If it means a day off work, I can't bloody wait...
    giphy.gif


  • #93
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,707 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    chances of a 'day off work' due to snow this week are slim to none. We need a growling beast for that sort of disruption and this ain't no beast, it's more of a kitten with a hint of cat flu.


  • #94
    Xenji
    Registered Users Posts: 11,505 ✭✭✭✭Xenji


    It will be none, even the days we got off for Ophelia and Emma in Mayo felt a bit hollow as neither provided close to a major event, not to say though they were not appreciated :D


  • #95
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Well the parallel this morning shows a very wintry day on Thursday!! Good start to the day with both gfs runs. Not very cold but cold enough and with a lot of ppn around things could get very interesting! Disruptive snow possible and also rain at times.....A forecasters nightmare!! Expect a pre warning from Met Eireann by tonight for Tuesday


  • #96
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    Well the parallel this morning shows a very wintry day on Thursday!! Good start to the day with both gfs runs. Not very cold but cold enough and with a lot of ppn around things could get very interesting! Disruptive snow possible and also rain at times.....A forecasters nightmare!! Expect a pre warning from Met Eireann by tonight for Tuesday

    farming forecast could be interesting


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  • #97
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,699 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    ZX7R wrote: »
    farming forecast could be interesting

    ....but very vague!

    Will just be rain, sleet or snow.


  • #98
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    ....but very vague!

    Will just be rain, sleet or snow.

    Probably all of the above ,
    DOCARCH......


  • #99
    Graces7
    Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    met speak of wintry showers on high ground in Connaught today.. glad I got more turf in!


  • #100
    Kamili
    Registered Users Posts: 2,479 ✭✭✭Kamili


    Graces7 wrote: »
    met speak of wintry showers on high ground in Connaught today.. glad I got more turf in!

    Stay warm. Hope it's not too bad out there.


  • #101
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Met Eireann covering all options with rain,sleet and snow for the week ahead. Going to be interesting but not expecting too much of the white stuff.


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  • #102
    derekon
    Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    munsterlegend wrote: »
    Met Eireann covering all options with rain,sleet and snow for the week ahead. Going to be interesting but not expecting too much of the white stuff.

    Expect nothing as that's likely what you will get!!

    D


  • #103
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    06z gfs is very dry run for Wednesday


  • #104
    prosaic
    Registered Users Posts: 156 ✭✭prosaic


    Benbulben in Sligo has light dusting to about 300 or 400 m


  • #105
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    The met in UK have warnings out so only matter of time before Met Eireann issue something


  • #106
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    The met in UK have warnings out so only matter of time before Met Eireann issue something

    They are much more favoured than us though.


  • #107
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,813 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    A lot of uncertainty with exact forecasts due to the complex nature of disturbances transiting the country at times and the very deep areas of LP towards Thurs but looking through the ECM I would interpret it as being a cold week with hard frosts, wintry showers and spells of longer precipitation ,windy along coasts at times, considerable windchill at times. Wet snow on high ground, possible spells of more persistent snow towards later Tues, weds, Thurs. Probably falls of wintry precipitation on lower levels, how long it stays on the ground depends at what time of day, but probably not cold enough to accumulate except for higher elevations. Later Weds / Thurs big uncertainty but charts showing a possibility of a substantial dumping of snow .


  • #108
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,442 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    There is a clear difference between the GFS and ECM for Tuesday which is only 48 hours out in terms of how far north precipitation gets across the country on Tuesday morning.

    Both would bring some snowfall early Tuesday morning to southern parts but how far north that extends is an open question at the moment. Snow showers already in to the northwest of the country overnight Monday and probably accumulations there by morning. These extending to other areas later in the day.

    Looks like a feast or famine week for snow with the feast often taking place within a kilometer of the famine.


  • #109
    Graces7
    Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    prosaic wrote: »
    Benbulben in Sligo has light dusting to about 300 or 400 m

    Nothing out here yet but the sky is snow coloured and heavy. Looks imminent; west mayo.offshore paradise

    and if it comes in these temps it will stay.


  • #110
    Graces7
    Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Meteorite58 wrote: »
    A lot of uncertainty with exact forecasts due to the complex nature of disturbances transiting the country at times and the very deep areas of LP towards Thurs but looking through the ECM I would interpret it as being a cold week with hard frosts, wintry showers and spells of longer precipitation ,windy along coasts at times, considerable windchill at times. Wet snow on high ground, possible spells of more persistent snow towards later Tues, weds, Thurs. Probably falls of wintry precipitation on lower levels, how long it stays on the ground depends at what time of day, but probably not cold enough to accumulate except for higher elevations. Later Weds / Thurs big uncertainty but charts showing a possibility of a substantial dumping of snow .

    sounds as it looks here... snow skies


  • #111
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,442 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    There is a chance of some sleet and snow tonight in the early hours of the morning in the midlands and east. It's marginal and not a particularly active front but 100+ meters of elevation will assist.


    hirlamuk-42-25-0.png?27-10


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  • #112
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    not much mention of any significant/disruptive snowfall regarding tuesday/thursday,if any in mt forecast this morning.



    TUESDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals. Winds could be fairly moderate unless a storm passing just to the south of Ireland goes a bit off track and spreads its strong winds inland. Rather cold, with scattered wintry showers[/B], some snow on hills. Lows near -2 C and highs near 5 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... Windy and raw with mixed sleety falls of rain, wet snow or hail, in blustery east to northeast winds, temperatures steady near 4 or 5 C but colder on higher ground especially after any snow accumulates.

    THURSDAY ... Windy, cold, some further sleet or snow, then partial clearing for parts of the north and west, more frequent wintry showers in east and south. Temperatures remaining steady around 4 or 5 C.

    FRIDAY ... Brighter intervals and cold with a strong northeast wind at times, risk of snow near east coast in streamers. Lows near -3 C and highs near 3 C.

    SATURDAY ... Sunny intervals, cold. Lows near -4 C and highs near 4 C.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... This cold, unsettled pattern will continue for the first half of February, it appears, with similar trends, a few days of cloudy, windy and showery weather with some risk of snow or sleet, and a few days of brighter cold weather, and perhaps one or two more brief intrusions of milder air masses. Temperatures will be generally about 1 to 2 degrees below average but not so cold that we can guarantee significant snowfalls, away from higher slopes. You would have to think that if this pattern locks in for weeks, sooner or later everything will align and snow will happen at lower elevations.


  • #113
    glightning
    Registered Users Posts: 522 ✭✭✭glightning


    Snow flakes falling outside here at the minute in Ballinderry, Co.Antrim. Just a very light and short shower with medium sized flakes blowing around. Seemed to be entirely of snow rather than any rain or sleet.


  • #114
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,707 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    GFS has snow risk reduced in eastern areas on Tuesday. Showers look well scattered in eastern coastal counties. If that low pressure tracks a bit further north, maybe some eastern areas could get a fall of snow. Wednesday looks dry too. Thursday and Friday have alot of precipitation but looks incredibly marginal.

    GFS ensemble run also showing increasing confidence in a return to mild conditions after February 6th with above average temperatures.


  • #115
    esposito
    Registered Users Posts: 1,343 ✭✭✭esposito


    Gonzo wrote: »

    GFS ensemble run also showing increasing confidence in a return to mild conditions after February 6th with above average temperatures.

    You had to ruin it didn't you:pac:

    Wouldn't take that as gospel with all the chopping and changing in the models lately anyway


  • #116
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,707 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    esposito wrote: »
    You had to ruin it didn't you:pac:

    Wouldn't take that as gospel with all the chopping and changing in the models lately anyway

    There is definitely no guarantee the return to mild will happen after the 6th. Currently there is signs of that, if it shows consistently over the next week then it will become more certain. The 'return' to mild is still 10 days away, way out in FI.


  • #117
    derekon
    Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    Gonzo wrote: »
    GFS has snow risk reduced in eastern areas on Tuesday. Showers look well scattered in eastern coastal counties. If that low pressure tracks a bit further north, maybe some eastern areas could get a fall of snow. Wednesday looks dry too. Thursday and Friday have alot of precipitation but looks incredibly marginal.

    GFS ensemble run also showing increasing confidence in a return to mild conditions after February 6th with above average temperatures.


    Just cold rain for Leinster this week I would think. Bear that in mind and you won't be disappointed. Dublin gets close on NOTHING from cold westerlies. As for bitter easterlies? Dublin is probably the best place in the country for those. Think Airport closed, M50 snowbound, utter chaos.....

    D


  • #118
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,707 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    derekon wrote: »
    Just cold rain for Leinster this week I would think. Bear that in mind and you won't be disappointed. Dublin gets close on NOTHING from cold westerlies. As for bitter easterlies? Dublin is probably the best place in the country for those. Think Airport closed, M50 snowbound, utter chaos.....

    D

    I'm expecting a mostly dry week here till about Thursday, but I could be proven wrong. We will need luck with those low pressures for decent precipitation in eastern coastal counties this week.


  • #119
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Here I go again, but I wouldn't be too confident in the GFS parallel model's handling of cold outbreaks no more than I would the original's. Yesterday's 18Z run for 850 hPa geopotential and temperature at Castor Bay at 00Z last night (so just 6 hours ahead) forecasted around 1250 m and a temperature of below -7 °C. The actual radiosonde data http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=europe&TYPE=TEXT%3ALIST&YEAR=2019&MONTH=01&FROM=2700&TO=2700&STNM=03918
    show the geopotential to be about right (1251 m) but the temperature was only -5.3 °C, about 2 degrees warmer than forecast.

    This is what I harp on and on about. If it can't get it right just 6 hours ahead then how can anyone put any stock on the charts for the rest of the week? As Gonzo posted yesterday, the 12Z precip map for 00Z showed snow over much of the country, but of course that didn't materialise. The GFS forecast sounding contradicted the precip map and showed snow only above a few hundred metres. So those precip charts are nonsense, it would seem.


  • #120
    derekon
    Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    Gonzo wrote: »
    I'm expecting a mostly dry week here till about Thursday, but I could be proven wrong. We will need luck with those low pressures for decent precipitation in eastern coastal counties this week.

    In other words if you live near the east coast, don't be going around telling relatives and friends it will be snowing this week or you'll likely have egg on your face!!!

    D


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  • #121
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,677 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    How are we looking down here in Cork City/ the south in general? Im getting confused by all the runs, one minute they show us buried and the next they show us dry and under sleet! If the channel low was a bit further north I assume we would have a bit more precip.


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