[M.T. Cranium]

Sunday, 21 June, 2009
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TODAY will start out rather cloudy with the best chances for morning sunshine in the west and south, as patchy light rain or drizzle moves slowly out of eastern and northern districts. By mid-day the sunshine or at least brighter conditions should spread into the east, but then low cloud and sea fog will begin to drift inland in some western districts, dimming the sunshine at times there. In this rather changeable mix, highs will probably be able to reach 20 or 21 C in some southern and eastern locations, about 18 or 19 C in central parts, and 17 C in the western third as well as across the north.

TONIGHT there may be another interval of cloud and light rain moving across the north and brushing the east coast towards morning. Amounts will be light, around 1-2 mms at most. Many southern and western locations will have some fog or mist but no measurable rain. Lows will be around 11 to 13 C.

MONDAY is likely to bring warmer sunshine to roughly the same parts of Ireland as the previous two days, mainly the inland south, southeast and east, with highs to about 22 or 23 C there. It will likely remain rather foggy with low cloud and drizzle in some western coastal districts, with highs near 17 C, and the north could stay cloudy much of the day with highs of about 18 or 19 C.

TUESDAY the wind direction will reverse from the very light NW'ly flow of previous days, to a slight SE'ly and this will tend to redistribute the coastal fog and low cloud more to the south and east coasts, leaving most inland and western districts sunny, warm and dry. However, there may be some isolated thunderstorms forming in central districts. Highs will be about 24 C inland and west, and 17-19 C south and east coasts.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY at present show a tendency for winds to back from southeast to northeast, which will likely take a few degrees off the warmth especially in the eastern third of the country, but in general it should stay rather warm and dry, with a slight risk of showers in one or two locations. Highs should be mainly around 22-23 C, cooler in the north and near the east coast. With this change in wind direction, the south coast could benefit by having a drier and warmer wind off the land rather than sea breezes.

[M.T. Cranium]

Monday, 22 June, 2009
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TODAY will be generally warm and dry, with the main question being how much cloud or sunshine will develop in various regions. There are one or two very light showers moving through eastern sections but these are unlikely to last very long after sunrise. The chances of low cloud, mist or fog are probably greatest in western and northern coastal regions, leaving highs around 17 C, and for the morning also near the east coast which should eventually clear to hazy sunshine and reach 20 C, with most other inland sections seeing sunshine fairly early and this will boost highs to about 22-24 C.

TONIGHT will have low cloud and fog near most south and east facing coasts, with clear if hazy skies in most inland and western sections. It will be quite warm with lows of about 12 to 15 C.

TUESDAY will bring sunshine and even warmer temperatures to many parts of Ireland, but as winds turn to a light southeast regime, the chances of low cloud and fog will be greater than before in east and south coast locations, while the west coast benefits from a warm, dry land breeze. Highs in the warmer parts should reach 24 to 26 C, while coastal sections south and east can expect highs of 18-20 C. There may be isolated thundershowers by afternoon in central districts.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY should remain warm and dry with sunshine except in some coastal sections exposed to an east wind; highs will generally be in the range of 22 to 25 C, and overnight lows around 10-13 C. Some east coast locations may be held to 17-19 C by sea breezes.

THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND may even be warmer as a hot continental air mass edges closer and begins to move across southern England towards Ireland.

Today is new moon ... this occurs at 1936 GMT or 8:36 pm.

[M.T. Cranium]

UPDATE _ Monday, 22 June, 2009 _ 4:20 pm
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A few showers will occur in parts of southeast Ireland, mainly about 20-30 miles inland from the south coast. This could represent the beginning of the expected heavier activity for Tuesday, so one or two of these showers could become thundery this evening. There is very little movement with these showers once they develop.

[M.T. Cranium]

Tuesday, 23 June, 2009
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The warm spell should continue for several more days, and there will be some tendency towards lower humidity values and a stronger degree of sunshine later in the week; some will be using the word hot in their reports.

TODAY will still see a lot of higher cloud filtering the sunshine, as well as local sea fog or lower cloud drifting inland in a few places near the south coast mainly, as winds become light southeast. Highs could reach 24 or 25 C despite the lack of direct sunshine, and we're watching out for any thundershowers developing near Laois, Offaly and n Tipps.

TONIGHT will be another warm, muggy (and short) night with lows of about 13 to 16 C.

WEDNESDAY looks a bit less humid as the breeze picks up somewhat from about the ESE direction, and there could be some stronger sunshine in central and western portions, as well as the slight risk of an afternoon shower developing, as highs reach 24-26 C. The east coast may be somewhat cooler than today due to a stronger sea breeze and highs may be in the range of 18-22 C there.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY should be similar with a slight tendency for the east coast sea breezes to back to due east and then ENE, which will perhaps make them slightly more able to push inland. But many places will have very similar weather all three days with highs remaining in the range of 24-26 C. Overnight lows will remain around 13 C.

NEXT WEEKEND could even be a touch warmer, and qualify as "hot" in places with highs to 27 or even 28 C, as the easterly flow goes quite slack again and favours more of a slight southeast wind, which may bring a cooler sea breeze back to the south coast and leave the east coast almost as warm as further inland.

I hope some of the other weather watchers will update around 1-3 pm if they see details emerging on any thundershowers, as yours truly will be otherwise occupied (zzz).

[Welsh Wizard]

Since started reading your report everyday, we've had nothing but great weather..! How do you do it...?

Last night was the warmest night for me in 10 years, (00.30am = 17.5c)

Is this the best summer we've had in 2-3 years...??

End of June last year brought some great weather too..

[L.O.F.T]

I want to say thanks, everyday i come here for my weather updates. Thank you, your work is appreciated.

[paulhac]

HI M.T. and all Just to update todays forecast:convection now in swing parts of Donegal, Mayo ,Galway and Tipp. spherics recorded too. Clear blue skies here in Dublin, fantastic!

Looks like Clare and Limerick also developing convection atm

[paulhac]

Looks like a downgrade of the storms and upgrade of the heat going through the weekend. The low out to our south west is only slowly moving in to affect mainly south western areas. Eastern parts could stay dry and get warmer. Remains to be seen

[M.T. Cranium]

Wednesday, 24 June, 2009
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TODAY will be (very) warm and hazy for most, with some cloud to start across parts of central Ireland -- this is the remnants of some heavy showers in Wales yesterday, so needs to be watched for the same sort of development later on today in the northwestern parts of Ireland (being a slow learner I have recently discovered this to be Connaught). In fact, almost anywhere in the western two thirds of Ireland could see a brief shower later today, but most places will stay dry and the sun should become quite strong eventually as some drier air is mixing in -- this will lower the humidity more than the temperature, although the east coast could have a noticeable sea breeze this afternoon. Highs for most of Ireland should reach 23 to 26 C, and even where the sea breeze cools things down a little, it will be into the 18-21 C range. Hopefully I or someone else will spot any heavy showers developing and report on them, anything that does form should drift to the northwest mainly.

TONIGHT will be another fairly clear if hazy night, and quite warm with lows of about 14 to 17 C for most. Some dense fog patches are quite likely especially over districts where rain has fallen in the evening (parts of Mayo and Galway would be a rough guess).

THURSDAY should be quite similar to today, with possibly a slight cooling near the east coast due to a stronger sea breeze. There may be less potential for showers to form as well, although that's not very certain, and highs should reach 23 to 25 C for most places, near 20 C east coast. Winds will tend to back slightly to about due east.

FRIDAY may see a return to somewhat higher humidity levels again as it stays very warm and winds return more to the southeast again. Highs will once again reach 23 to 26 C and there may be somewhat more organized shower or thundershower development in the western half of the country.

SATURDAY is looking very warm and sunny as well with a few isolated thundershowers, highs 24 to 27 C with light sea breezes on most coastlines cooling the immediate shore districts to about 18-20 C.

SUNDAY from this distance looks warm and humid with thundershowers that could become rather heavy in places. Highs will be around 23-25 C away from the coasts. All of the nights from Thursday to early Monday should remain well above 10 C for lowest readings, probably averaging about 14 or 15 C. But as the air dries out later this week, one or two places could drop to 8 or 9 C for a couple of hours, but you likely won't notice unless you're out at 0400 or so.

Thanks to Paulhac for updating yesterday, I missed the entire day in real time due to sleep and then some business that took me away for the day, normally I have a couple of quick looks at the British Isles weather around 3 to 6 pm your time, and I hope to do that today to catch up with any interesting showers or storms. I should just mention (for weather newbies) that sometimes in this kind of weather pattern, you will notice radar echoes at night and early morning that are not really showers or rain, but just false returns off a stable layer near the ground. For example, I'm seeing one or two of those over parts of Wales early this morning. The ones that show up at mid-day are usually real though. If you ever wonder if they are real, check the satellite image for corresponding bright features, if you only see very grey and dull images where the radar echoes are sitting, then it's likely (wait for it) anomalous propagation.

[paulhac]

Not much convection today compared to this time yesterday. anything on the radar is just anaprop e.g. south county Down, false echoes. Much fresher feel today due to breeze here in east, much more bearable

[Birdnuts]

Both Meto and GFS now going for serious heat next week

[glossy]

just echoing on what most posters have said thanks M.T Cranium

[M.T. Cranium]

Thursday, 25 June, 2009
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TODAY should continue warm and bright in most parts, although I am a bit concerned about the spread of low cloud into Ireland (as well as eastern England) overnight, and how fast this might dissipate today, given a slightly stronger east wind that may be more noticeable today at 15-25 mph in more exposed locations. This will, however, suppress the sea breeze on the west coast and allow those locations to warm to the maximum extent.

To be on the safe side, I am going to suggest a cloudy start with a brighter late morning, sunny by afternoon in most locations, but don't be surprised if some east coast locations stay foggy or get into a clammy low cloud situation for a while. Highs should be about 22-25 C in the west and central inland districts, near 20 C south coast (15 C over the water) and 18-20 C east coast assuming that it clears up somewhat this afternoon (16 C over the Irish Sea). The chance of showers seems slight although some are moving past the southwest early this morning in a northwesterly direction away from land. However, there could be a few light sprinkles of rain moving west across Clare and Galway towards Mayo this morning.

TONIGHT should see mainly clear skies and less breezy conditions, with fog becoming extensive in some east and south coast locations. Lows will be about 10-13 C inland, and 12-15 C in larger cities and near the coasts.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy, warm and more humid again, with a higher risk of showers developing, once again mainly in the south and west. Highs will be about 23 C with some cooling near the east and south coasts.

SATURDAY also looks very warm and humid with isolated heavy thundershowers possible, highs near 25 C inland, 20 C near the coasts.

SUNDAY to TUESDAY could be somewhat unsettled but with very warm air seeping in from the near continent and the southern UK, it may reach 27 C in places. The situation is less than certain because a strong low well offshore will continue to spin off moisture just to the southwest of Ireland, and if this proves to be more progressive it could bring a lot of rain into the southwest at any point beyond Sunday night. On the other hand, if the pattern stays more blocked than the models are showing today, the warmth could evolve into a heat wave. So the forecast splits the difference and places Ireland on the edge of these two competing systems (for the time being).

[xp90]

Great stuff! although you couldnt please us, these days were complainin its too fecking warm!! Keep up the good work!

[Black Briar]

Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 25 June, 2009
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TODAY should continue warm and bright in most parts, although I am a bit concerned about the spread of low cloud into Ireland (as well as eastern England) overnight, and how fast this might dissipate today, given a slightly stronger east wind that may be more noticeable today at 15-25 mph in more exposed locations. This will, however, suppress the sea breeze on the west coast and allow those locations to warm to the maximum extent.

To be on the safe side, I am going to suggest a cloudy start with a brighter late morning, sunny by afternoon in most locations, but don't be surprised if some east coast locations stay foggy or get into a clammy low cloud situation for a while. Highs should be about 22-25 C in the west and central inland districts, near 20 C south coast (15 C over the water) and 18-20 C east coast assuming that it clears up somewhat this afternoon (16 C over the Irish Sea). The chance of showers seems slight although some are moving past the southwest early this morning in a northwesterly direction away from land. However, there could be a few light sprinkles of rain moving west across Clare and Galway towards Mayo this morning.

TONIGHT should see mainly clear skies and less breezy conditions, with fog becoming extensive in some east and south coast locations. Lows will be about 10-13 C inland, and 12-15 C in larger cities and near the coasts.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy, warm and more humid again, with a higher risk of showers developing, once again mainly in the south and west. Highs will be about 23 C with some cooling near the east and south coasts.

SATURDAY also looks very warm and humid with isolated heavy thundershowers possible, highs near 25 C inland, 20 C near the coasts.

SUNDAY to TUESDAY could be somewhat unsettled but with very warm air seeping in from the near continent and the southern UK, it may reach 27 C in places. The situation is less than certain because a strong low well offshore will continue to spin off moisture just to the southwest of Ireland, and if this proves to be more progressive it could bring a lot of rain into the southwest at any point beyond Sunday night. On the other hand, if the pattern stays more blocked than the models are showing today, the warmth could evolve into a heat wave. So the forecast splits the difference and places Ireland on the edge of these two competing systems (for the time being).

Met Éireann are quite different to you today MT on their radio forecast this morning..
They are expecting showers in the south and East [as opposed to you expecting them more in the west] spreading in from wales late tonight and tomorrow[friday] with embedded thunderstorms and locally heavy downpours.