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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2019 / 2020 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    IMO the models fairly aligned now with the track , strength and duration of winds for next Monday and Tuesday. Strongest on coasts, maybe up to around 100km/h on coastal fringes for a time early Monday , up to 90 km/h more general on Atlantic coasts and probably up to 80 km/h or so inland for a time as the front crosses the country by the afternoon.

    Rainfall not excessive but will be squally /blustery on Monday as the front crosses the country quickly.

    Tuesday the winds could be stronger in Connacht and the NW with more sustained strong winds 80 to 100km/h overland there and up to 80 km/h elsewhere. Rainfall heaviest in W Connacht and Donegal, for the rest of the country not showing excessive rainfall at this stage.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,675 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Tuesday also sees extremely warm uppers crossing the country, possibly +12 or +13C uppers. In the summer these could get us close to 30C under the right conditions.

    As this is January, the middle of winter and with rain expected, these should get the temperature to 13C or possibly slightly higher.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,431 ✭✭✭sideswipe


    Looks like ye had a fairly strong jet helping along a good bit of the way. Out of interest where was the worst turbulence ? About half way across by any chance ?


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    It was a case of seat belt sign on for 80% of the flight. The middle third was definitely the most turbulent.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Would appear to me that the highest winds Monday are very much reserved for Atlantic coastal fringes especially the W. Blustery across the country as the front goes through, cleared by mid afternoon.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    sideswipe wrote: »
    Flew from Orlando to Dublin last night and it was the most turbulence I’ve experienced for quite a while flying through that. On the plus side the nice tail wind got us in an hour early.

    The SigWx chart for that time showed a large area of moderate to severe turbulence in the mid-Atlantic (areas marked [6] and [7] below). Moderate up to 45,000 ft (area 6), moderate-severe between up to 42,000 ft (area 7). It looks like your flight flew through this area at 38,000 ft, so right through the thick of it.

    Further back, there was a strong jet streak of above 150 knots along the US east coast.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    We must not overlook potential for Wednesday night into Thursday.

    Models been struggling to handle the wave development, still good number of solutions going for a nasty feature near our south coast.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    ICON showing the risk tonight

    GEM also

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    We must not overlook potential for Wednesday night into Thursday.

    Models been struggling to handle the wave development, still good number of solutions going for a nasty feature near our south coast.


    Just moved your posts over to this thread Sleety_Rain as the other is more for +120 hrs ie in the more unreliable.

    You are very right Sleety , the models have been increasing the wind speed on that small deepening fast moving low and bringing it further N over Ireland on each run early Thurs morning. ICON leading the way in track over Ireland and wind strength. ARPEGE coming out now , we will see what it does, so far keeping the strongest winds offshore, will the winds come in closer and strengthen on this run like the rest?


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    A lot happening over the coming week including possible strong winds Fri into early Sat morning, quite wet and looking like pulling in cold air behind the fronts



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    ICON showing very heavy rain over the weekend.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Majority of charts showing it much windier inland tomorrow than today with heavy blustery showers.

    Winds veering during the day from S to SW and ending up WSW or W.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    EURO 418Z powering up that Low for early Thurs and showing possible sleety precipitation I reckon out in front as it moves into the colder air. ECM showing a fast jet acting as a conveyor belt.

    Would want to see the ECM follow this and ICON in order to verify . EURO4 can certainly overdo the wind speeds and rainfall predictions, but is quite good and a useful model at the off.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Models have mostly backed off the very windy conditions early Thurs morning apart from EURO 4 and ICON bringing strong winds close to the coast. Still a deal of uncertainty. Models are showing a second low that could bring windy conditions to the SW Thurs evening.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Still looking wet and windy Fri into Sat.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ARPEGE not finished with that Low for late Weds night /early Thursday morning !



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    EURO4 has backed off with the strongest winds now more off shore early Thurs and not as strong as the last run.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Charts in broad agreement with windy wet weather Fri evening into Saturday. Looks very wet in the W, NW and over high ground in the SW.

    Possible yellow warnings along some Atlantic counties and possible rainfall warning in the W


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Monday coming into the more reliable time frame. Been very consistent showing strong winds from the fronts associated with the storm positioned between Ireland and Iceland. This is the GFS 12Z take on it, quite similar for a number of runs. Would bring very strong winds across Ireland , maybe close to storm force on coasts.

    Mean winds

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    Gusts

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM 12Z take on it, bit lower than earlier runs. Long way to go to get final take on probable timing and wind speeds.

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    ICON brings in the front later


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,483 ✭✭✭typhoony


    models have backed off a bit on the severity of the storm, small secondary low forms behind and sweeps up the Irish Sea. looking forward to the cold westerlies that push in after the storm has past.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    typhoony wrote: »
    models have backed off a bit on the severity of the storm, small secondary low forms behind and sweeps up the Irish Sea. looking forward to the cold westerlies that push in after the storm has past.

    Yes continues to show less strong winds on Monday, strongest winds with gales on the coasts.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Tuesday looks to have potentialy more wind as a fast moving deepening depression is showing at present to move quickly up over the country by both GFS and ECM . ICON and GEM showing something similar also.

    Jet having a hand in this one.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Good cross model agreement in rainfall amounts Fri into Sat.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    As alluded to by Met Eireann in their weather advisory issued in the last while for next week, an intensification of a core of very strong winds on the GFS 12 Z off the west coast on Monday which has been popping up regularly on runs for the past number of days - Monday another day to watch...

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Lots of unsettled weather over the coming days , big uncertainty in track and timing of fast moving systems close to our shores.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Tuesday has the makings of a wet cold day for many and high chance of wintry precipitation in the mix. Watching for winds in the SE and W later.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM has upped its prediction for sleet /snow Tues day time as a low pressure crosses the country moving into by then cold air mass. Windy on the S and SE coasts, very cold day.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,483 ✭✭✭typhoony


    Thursday into Friday could be a lot of rain for South West..

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Strong Winds clipping the SE tomorrow and later in the W / NW into Weds.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Thursday a wet a blustery day.


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This discussion has been closed.
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