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23-06-2018, 17:33   #61
M.T. Cranium
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After 22 days, IMT on 14.9(4) with the 22nd showing 12.3 C. This will stay around 14.9 after today then start climbing steadily by 0.1 or even 0.2 a day, could end up near 15.8 at end of month.

MAX for the day was 20.5 at OP so no change there (26.1), new MIN of 2.1 at Mountdillon. If that holds, five guesses within 0.1 (dacogawa and sdanseo had 2.2, rikand, kindredspirit and MTC had 2.0) and several more at 1.9 or 2.3. ... not much clarity on how high MAX could get, anywhere in our range of forecasts is possible (we run 26.2 to 30.0). I think 28.7 might be the over-under now (our consensus is 28.0).

No rain anywhere so PRC falls to 51% for the month. This could go as low as 37% with no further rain.

SUN was about as high as possible (in more ways than one) with 91.1 hours total, about 275% of normal! That gives an instant 8% boost to the running average now up to 105%. Unbroken sunshine to end of month would see that rising to a little over 150%, probably not going to be quite that generous so maybe looking at about 130%? To get there about twice normal sunshine of 11 hours a day is required (on average at the six locations).
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23-06-2018, 18:48   #62
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These are very approximate scoring estimates based on the assumptions made in the previous post. I have left the MAX predictions in the table because this is the most likely to need substantial revisions. The 24h max rainfall contest may also have a late twist in the plot. I will edit or republish this table any time that ground truth changes the estimates.

Scores are shown in order, with the value in brackets being the maximum possible score if MAX forecast verifies instead of 28.7. Where those scores are marked + they can only improve with a higher value than 28.7, all others improve with lower values. Minimum progression might come into play if MAX exceeds 29 so that most of the scores without a + are likely to remain similar with any upward drift of MAX while those marked + will improve. An outcome under 27 will also require some minimum progression adjustments.

Early provisional scoring for June 2018

FORECASTER __________ IMT _MAX ___ MIN _PRC _SUN _ Max rain_loc'n _ TOTAL

scoring based on _______ 15.8 __ 28.7 _2.0 _050 _130 ___33.2_Newport

Rikand _______________ 17 _ 13 28.0 _ 19 _ 12 _ 08 ____ 01 _ 02 ______ 72 (79)
Jpmarn _______________19 _ 11 27.8 _ 16 _ 13 _ 05 ____ 02 _ 00 ______ 66 (75)
pauldry _______________15 _ 19 28.6 _ 16 _ 03 _ 06 ____ 06 _ 01 ______ 66 (67)
JCXBXC ______________ 21 _ 17 28.4 _ 07 _ 09 _ 06 ____ 03 _ 00 ______ 63 (66)
Kindred Spirit __ (-2) ___ 13 _ 08 27.5 _ 19 _ 14 _ 08 ____ 02 _ 00 __64-2=62 (74)
sdanseo ______________ 14 _ 11 29.6 _ 19 _ 06 _ 07 ____ 04 _ 00 ______ 61 (70)+

Con Sensus ___________ 14 _ 13 28.0 _ 16 _ 07 _ 06 ____ 04 _ 01 ______ 61 (68)

Lumi _________________13 _ 17 29.0 _ 08 _ 10 _ 07 ____ 04 _ 00 ______ 59 (62)+
Dacogawa ____________ 13 _ 18 28.5 _ 19 _ 01 _ 05 ____ 03 _ 00 ______ 59 (61)
Tae laidir _____________ 14 _ 10 27.7 _ 10 _ 12 _ 07 ____ 05 _ 00 ______ 58 (68)
M.T. Cranium __________15 _ 13 28.0 _ 19 _ 02 _ 06 ____ 01 _ 00 ______ 56 (63)
Joe Public ___ (-3) ______18 _ 08 29.9 _ 18 _ 05 _ 08^____01 _ 00 _58-3=55 (67)+
Artane2002 ___________ 13 _ 15 28.2 _ 13 _ 02 _ 06 ____ 05 _ 00 ______ 54 (59)
waterways ____________ 14 _ 16 28.3 _ 16 _ 02 _ 03 ____ 02 _ 00 ______ 53 (57)
Rameire ______________ 11 _ 15 28.2 _ 11 _ 03 _ 05 ____ 06 _ 00 ______ 51 (56)
sryanbruen ____________16 _ 08 27.5 _ 09 _ 07 _ 07 ____ 04 _ 00 ______ 51 (63)
mickger844posts _______ 25 _ 07 27.4 _ 03 _ 02 _ 06 ____ 07 _ 00 ______ 50 (63)
DOCARCH _____________09 _ 06 27.3 _ 18 _ 03 _ 05 ____ 07 _ 00 ______ 48 (62)
John mac __ (-1) _______06 _ 04 27.1 _ 18 _ 07 _ 04 ____ 03 _ 03 __45-1=44 (60)
BLIZZARD7 ___________ 20 _ 07 30.0 _ 04 _ 04 _ 08 ____ 00 _ 00 ______ 43 (56)+
MrSkinner ____________ 11 _ 00 26.2 _ 11 _ 07 _ 04 ____ 07 _ 00 ______ 40 (60)
Sunflower3 ____________13 _ 12 29.5 _ 00 _ 07 _ 03 ____ 03 _ 01 ______ 39 (47)+
Bsal _________________ 11 _ 04 27.1 _ 00 _ 11 _ 07 ____ 05 _ 01 ______ 39 (55)
Dasa29 _______________09 _ 03 27.0 _ 01 _ 09 _ 08^____06 _ 01 ______ 37 (54)
200motels ___ (-13) ____24 _ 08 27.5 _ 02 _ 01 _ 06 ____ 07 _ 00 _48-13=35 (47)

NormaL ______________ 03 _ 00 26.5 _ 14 _ 07 _ 04 ____ 04 _ 01 ______ 33 (53)

Notes:

PRC scores based on minimum progression

^ for SUN indicates two forecasts higher than estimate (scores will change opposite direction to all others if necessary)

24h rain locations scored 3 for highest, 2 for second highest, and 1 for any top five (Mullingar) as nobody guessed third or fourth highest locations. (subject to change if any late in month rainfalls occur)

(forecasts)

FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max rain (24h) _ loc'n

200motels ___ (-13) ____ 15.9 _ 27.5 _ 3.9 _ 124 _ 108 ____ 32.1 __ Johnstown Castle
mickger844posts _______ 15.8 _ 27.4 _ 3.8 _ 120 _ 110 ____ 35.2 __ Johnstown Castle
JCXBXC _______________15.4 _ 28.4 _ 3.4 _ 100 _ 110 ____ 22.2 __ Cork
BLIZZARD7 ___________ 15.3 _ 30.0 _ 0.5 _ 110 _ 120 ____ 63.3 __ Oak Park
Jpmarn _______________15.2 _ 27.8 _ 2.5 _ 085 _ 105 ____ 45.0 __ Ballyhaise
Joe Public ___ (-3) ______15.1 _ 29.9 _ 2.3 _ 109 _ 140 ____ 46.9 __ Dublin Airport
Rikand _______________ 15.0 _ 28.0 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 50.0 __ Mt. Dillon
sryanbruen ____________14.9 _ 27.5 _ 1.0 _ 105 _ 115 ____ 39.5 __ Cork
pauldry _______________14.8 _ 28.6 _ 2.5 _ 115 _ 108 ____ 35.3 __ Mullingar
M.T. Cranium __________14.8 _ 28.0 _ 2.0 _ 120 _ 110 ____ 50.2 __ Cork
sdanseo ______________ 14.7 _ 29.6 _ 2.2 _ 108 _ 115 ____ 40.1 __ Gurteen
waterways ____________ 14.7 _ 28.3 _ 2.5 _ 118 _ 095 ____ 45.0 __ Valentia

Con Sensus ___________ 14.7 _ 28.0 _ 2.5 _ 105 _ 110 ____ 39.8 __ (Mul,Val 3pts; Gur,Cork,OP, JC 2pts; sev'l 1pt)

Tae laidir _____________ 14.7 _ 27.7 _ 3.1 _ 090 _ 115 ____ 36.5 __ Gurteen
Sunflower3 ____________14.6 _ 29.5 _ 4.5 _ 105 _ 095 ____ 43.3 __ Mullingar
Lumi _________________14.6 _ 29.0 _ 3.3 _ 092 _ 115 ____ 40.01 _ Sherkin Island
Dacogawa ____________ 14.6 _ 28.5 _ 2.2 _ 129 _ 107 ____ 41.0 __ Belmullet
Artane2002 ___________ 14.6 _ 28.2 _ 2.8 _ 120 _ 110 ____ 38.2 __ Valentia
Kindred Spirit __ (-2) ___ 14.6 _ 27.5 _ 2.0 _ 080 _ 120 ____ 44.0 __ Valentia.
Rameire ______________ 14.4 _ 28.2 _ 3.0 _ 115 _ 105 ____ 35.6 __ Oak Park
Bsal _________________ 14.4 _ 27.1 _ 4.5 _ 091 _ 117 ____ 38.0 __ Mullingar
MrSkinner ____________ 14.4 _ 26.2 _ 3.0 _ 105 _ 100 ____ 32.1 __ Valentia
DOCARCH _____________14.2 _ 27.3 _ 2.3 _ 115 _ 105 ____ 35.2 __ Shannon
Dasa29 _______________14.2 _ 27.0 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 140 ____ 30.5 __ Mullingar
John mac __ (-1) _______13.9 _ 27.1 _ 1.9 _ 105 _ 102 ____ 42.5 __ Newport

NormaL ______________ 13.6 _ 26.5 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 40.0 __ see text below

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 23-06-2018 at 18:56.
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24-06-2018, 09:40   #63
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After 23 days the IMT stayed on 14.9 as the 23rd averaged 14.1, and MAX/MIN remain the same (24.0 Oak Park to 3.7 Markree on 23rd).

Another dry day sees the PRC down to 49% now.

SUN had another high total of 87.9 hours, about 265% of normal, so that rises again to 112% of normal.
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25-06-2018, 14:02   #64
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After 24 days, the IMT still on 14.9(4) but starting to rebound with the average on 24th at 16.1 C.

New MAX is 26.5 at Oak Park, the daily minimum was 4.0 at Markree (leaves MIN at 2.1).

No significant rain (JC in the grid reports 0.1 mm) so that brings PRC down again to 47%.

SUN did the full tour of duty at 91.6 hours, good for another 7% rise to 119% for the month.
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26-06-2018, 08:26   #65
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After 25 days the IMT has increased to 15.1 with the average on Monday 25th being 18.0 C.

We have another new MAX, 27.5 at Oak Park, while the daily MIN of 5.4 at Markree changes nothing.

(added at 1600h, a new MAX will occur in the next report as Shannon was reporting 29 at 1600h ).

It was dry in the rainfall grid and that brings the sparse monthly average down to 45% of normal.

There was a total of 70.5 hours of sunshine, about 210% of normal, and that further inflates the monthly average to 123%.

Note: in the provisional scoring table, the number in brackets after your total showed what you could score with a perfect MAX forecast rather than my provisional estimate ... but now anyone with a forecast below 27.5 has to subtract the difference from that as your highest possible score is no longer 20 but 20 minus your error (0.1 deg equals one point). MrSkinner is the largest change there, at 26.2 his MAX is now sitting at 7 points so the highest possible score has fallen from 60 to 47. A few others have lost 1-5 points. (added at 1600h _ the MAX appears headed for 28.5 or higher so more of us may be cut back on our max potential scores. Above 28.7 I think some need for minimum progression will soften the blow for those in the 26.2 to 28.0 range.)

The only other place that people could theoretically gain points now, I believe, is the max rainfall if something very heavy falls on the 29th or 30th, but only forecasts above 35 mm can gain any points and those below that could lose points, in fact, those below 40 mm could lose points if 50+ verifies. It's too early to be very confident about that possible outcome. Sunshine seems to be on a good path to reach the provisional target (130%) with a bit more cloud around to prevent an overshoot, and there would have to be a stupendous amount of rain to get PRC anywhere back above 60%.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 26-06-2018 at 16:49. Reason: updating IMT and MAX info
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27-06-2018, 05:17   #66
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New MAX of 29.3 has caused a revision of the earlier provisional scoring report ... this is the new one.

Updated provisional scoring for June 2018


FORECASTER __________ IMT _MAX ___ MIN _PRC _SUN _ Max rain_loc'n _ TOTAL

scoring based on _______ 15.8 __ 29.3 _2.1 _050 _130 ___33.2_Newport

sdanseo ______________ 14 _ 17 29.6 _ 19 _ 06 _ 07 ____ 04 _ 00 ______ 67+
Rikand _______________ 17 _ 07 28.0 _ 19 _ 12 _ 08 ____ 01 _ 02 ______ 66
Joe Public ___ (-3) ______18 _ 14 29.9 _ 18 _ 05 _ 08^____01 _ 00 _64-3=61+
Jpmarn _______________19 _ 05 27.8 _ 16 _ 13 _ 05 ____ 02 _ 00 ______ 60
pauldry _______________15 _ 13 28.6 _ 16 _ 03 _ 06 ____ 06 _ 01 ______ 60
Lumi _________________13 _ 17 29.0 _ 08 _ 10 _ 07 ____ 04 _ 00 ______ 59
JCXBXC ______________ 21 _ 11 28.4 _ 07 _ 09 _ 06 ____ 03 _ 00 ______ 57
Kindred Spirit __ (-2) ___ 13 _ 02 27.5 _ 19 _ 14 _ 08 ____ 02 _ 00 __58-2=56

Con Sensus ___________ 14 _ 07 28.0 _ 16 _ 07 _ 06 ____ 04 _ 01 ______ 55

Dacogawa ____________ 13 _ 12 28.5 _ 19 _ 01 _ 05 ____ 03 _ 00 ______ 53
Tae laidir _____________ 14 _ 04 27.7 _ 10 _ 12 _ 07 ____ 05 _ 00 ______ 52
M.T. Cranium __________15 _ 07 28.0 _ 19 _ 02 _ 06 ____ 01 _ 00 ______ 50
BLIZZARD7 ___________ 20 _ 13 30.0 _ 04 _ 04 _ 08 ____ 00 _ 00 ______ 49+
Artane2002 ___________ 13 _ 09 28.2 _ 13 _ 02 _ 06 ____ 05 _ 00 ______ 48
waterways ____________ 14 _ 10 28.3 _ 16 _ 02 _ 03 ____ 02 _ 00 ______ 47
Rameire ______________ 11 _ 09 28.2 _ 11 _ 03 _ 05 ____ 06 _ 00 ______ 45
sryanbruen ____________16 _ 02 27.5 _ 09 _ 07 _ 07 ____ 04 _ 00 ______ 45
Sunflower3 ____________13 _ 18 29.5 _ 00 _ 07 _ 03 ____ 03 _ 01 ______ 45+
mickger844posts _______ 25 _ 01 27.4 _ 03 _ 02 _ 06 ____ 07 _ 00 ______ 44
DOCARCH _____________09 _ 00 27.3 _ 18 _ 03 _ 05 ____ 07 _ 00 ______ 42
John mac __ (-1) _______06 _ 00 27.1 _ 18 _ 07 _ 04 ____ 03 _ 03 __41-1=40
MrSkinner ____________ 11 _ 00 26.2 _ 11 _ 07 _ 04 ____ 07 _ 00 ______ 40
200motels ___ (-13) ____24 _ 02 27.5 _ 02 _ 01 _ 06 ____ 07 _ 00 _42-13=39
Bsal _________________ 11 _ 00 27.1 _ 00 _ 11 _ 07 ____ 05 _ 01 ______ 35
Dasa29 _______________09 _ 00 27.0 _ 01 _ 09 _ 08^____06 _ 01 ______ 34

NormaL ______________ 03 _ 00 26.5 _ 14 _ 07 _ 04 ____ 04 _ 01 ______ 33

Notes:

PRC scores based on minimum progression ... MAX scores may get a slight boost later, will wait and see if 29.3 holds before adding that feature, also could depend on whether the eventual value is 18+ points for the best forecast (that would reduce the boost). It may just be a case of everyone getting three extra points to make the monthly average closer to other months.

^ for SUN indicates two forecasts higher than estimate (scores will change opposite direction to all others if necessary)

24h rain locations scored 3 for highest, 2 for second highest, and 1 for any top five (Mullingar) as nobody guessed third or fourth highest locations. (subject to change if any late in month rainfalls occur)

+ now indicates scores that could still increase if MAX goes higher, although as mentioned all scores will probably increase slightly after minimum progression is applied. The scores that would go down with a higher MAX will likely stay where they are now as they get adjusted back up, or might increase but less than those with the higher MAX forecasts. The largest increases left on the table are seven points for BLIZZARD7 and six for Joe Public if we reach 29.9 or 30.0. That will likely remain the case if we overshoot 30. Then all scores will go to minimum progression.

(forecasts)

FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max rain (24h) _ loc'n

200motels ___ (-13) ____ 15.9 _ 27.5 _ 3.9 _ 124 _ 108 ____ 32.1 __ Johnstown Castle
mickger844posts _______ 15.8 _ 27.4 _ 3.8 _ 120 _ 110 ____ 35.2 __ Johnstown Castle
JCXBXC _______________15.4 _ 28.4 _ 3.4 _ 100 _ 110 ____ 22.2 __ Cork
BLIZZARD7 ___________ 15.3 _ 30.0 _ 0.5 _ 110 _ 120 ____ 63.3 __ Oak Park
Jpmarn _______________15.2 _ 27.8 _ 2.5 _ 085 _ 105 ____ 45.0 __ Ballyhaise
Joe Public ___ (-3) ______15.1 _ 29.9 _ 2.3 _ 109 _ 140 ____ 46.9 __ Dublin Airport
Rikand _______________ 15.0 _ 28.0 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 50.0 __ Mt. Dillon
sryanbruen ____________14.9 _ 27.5 _ 1.0 _ 105 _ 115 ____ 39.5 __ Cork
pauldry _______________14.8 _ 28.6 _ 2.5 _ 115 _ 108 ____ 35.3 __ Mullingar
M.T. Cranium __________14.8 _ 28.0 _ 2.0 _ 120 _ 110 ____ 50.2 __ Cork
sdanseo ______________ 14.7 _ 29.6 _ 2.2 _ 108 _ 115 ____ 40.1 __ Gurteen
waterways ____________ 14.7 _ 28.3 _ 2.5 _ 118 _ 095 ____ 45.0 __ Valentia

Con Sensus ___________ 14.7 _ 28.0 _ 2.5 _ 105 _ 110 ____ 39.8 __ (Mul,Val 3pts; Gur,Cork,OP, JC 2pts; sev'l 1pt)

Tae laidir _____________ 14.7 _ 27.7 _ 3.1 _ 090 _ 115 ____ 36.5 __ Gurteen
Sunflower3 ____________14.6 _ 29.5 _ 4.5 _ 105 _ 095 ____ 43.3 __ Mullingar
Lumi _________________14.6 _ 29.0 _ 3.3 _ 092 _ 115 ____ 40.01 _ Sherkin Island
Dacogawa ____________ 14.6 _ 28.5 _ 2.2 _ 129 _ 107 ____ 41.0 __ Belmullet
Artane2002 ___________ 14.6 _ 28.2 _ 2.8 _ 120 _ 110 ____ 38.2 __ Valentia
Kindred Spirit __ (-2) ___ 14.6 _ 27.5 _ 2.0 _ 080 _ 120 ____ 44.0 __ Valentia.
Rameire ______________ 14.4 _ 28.2 _ 3.0 _ 115 _ 105 ____ 35.6 __ Oak Park
Bsal _________________ 14.4 _ 27.1 _ 4.5 _ 091 _ 117 ____ 38.0 __ Mullingar
MrSkinner ____________ 14.4 _ 26.2 _ 3.0 _ 105 _ 100 ____ 32.1 __ Valentia
DOCARCH _____________14.2 _ 27.3 _ 2.3 _ 115 _ 105 ____ 35.2 __ Shannon
Dasa29 _______________14.2 _ 27.0 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 140 ____ 30.5 __ Mullingar
John mac __ (-1) _______13.9 _ 27.1 _ 1.9 _ 105 _ 102 ____ 42.5 __ Newport

NormaL ______________ 13.6 _ 26.5 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 40.0 __ see text below

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 27-06-2018 at 13:53.
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27-06-2018, 09:42   #67
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It was good while it lasted
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28-06-2018, 00:32   #68
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It was good while it lasted
Yeah, that 17pts is now 8

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28-06-2018, 09:24   #69
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It appears that I did not update on the 26th, the IMT was close to 20 and the monthly average rose to 15.3 C.

IMT then rose further to 15.5 after the 27th with the average on 27th a scorching 20.9 C. ... Shannon's daily mean of 23.1 is warmer than any day in the 246 year CET temperature series (the highest there being 23.0 on 3 June 1947).

New max of 30.8 at Shannon, scoring implications to follow ... the min on 27th was 9.4 C at Mountdillon.

With no rain again (a few slight amounts on Tuesday), the PRC is now around 40%.

SUN on Tuesday was 68.9 hours (205%) and on Wednesday back up to 86.3h (about 260%). Combined these bring the monthly SUN average to about 131%.

So here's a new update on the scoring and likely to be close to the final values as rain now seems very unlikely before Saturday midnight (some slight chances for Sunday but that's in July).

The MAX will now have to go to minimum progression. I will be generous in dropping down from rung to rung, trying to blend that with gaps between forecasts in choosing where to double up (24 forecasts, 21 scoring levels to be used, 20 down to 0). This new table does not show your forecast any more. I will also go with 140% sunshine now that we have made 130% after 27th. This has been a remarkable rise since 21st. IMT will also be boosted to 16.0. PRC falls to 32% but that has no effect on scoring which had already been done by minimum progression.


Updated provisional scoring for June 2018


FORECASTER __________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN _ Max rain_loc'n _ TOTAL

scoring based on _______ 16.0_30.8_2.1_032_140___33.2_Newport

Joe Public ___ (-3) ______16 _ 19 _ 18 _ 05 _ 10 ____ 01 _ 00 _ 69-3=66
Rikand _______________ 15 _ 10 _ 19 _ 12 _ 06 ____ 01 _ 02 ______ 65
sdanseo ______________ 12 _ 18 _ 19 _ 06 _ 05 ____ 04 _ 00 ______ 64
Jpmarn _______________17 _ 09 _ 16 _ 13 _ 03 ____ 02 _ 00 ______ 60
pauldry _______________13 _ 16 _ 16 _ 03 _ 04 ____ 06 _ 01 ______ 59
Kindred Spirit __ (-2) ___ 11 _ 07 _ 19 _ 14 _ 06 ____ 02 _ 00 __59-2=57
JCXBXC ______________ 19 _ 14 _ 07 _ 09 _ 04 ____ 03 _ 00 ______ 56
Lumi _________________11 _ 17 _ 08 _ 10 _ 05 ____ 04 _ 00 ______ 55

Con Sensus ___________ 12 _ 10 _ 16 _ 07 _ 04 ____ 04 _ 01 ______ 54

Dacogawa ____________ 11 _ 15 _ 19 _ 01 _ 03 ____ 03 _ 00 ______ 52
Tae laidir _____________ 12 _ 08 _ 10 _ 12 _ 05 ____ 05 _ 00 ______ 52
BLIZZARD7 ___________ 18 _ 20 _ 04 _ 04 _ 06 ____ 00 _ 00 ______ 52
M.T. Cranium __________13 _ 10 _ 19 _ 02 _ 04 ____ 01 _ 00 ______ 49
Artane2002 ___________ 11 _ 12 _ 13 _ 02 _ 04 ____ 05 _ 00 ______ 47
waterways ____________ 12 _ 13 _ 16 _ 02 _ 01 ____ 02 _ 00 ______ 46
sryanbruen ____________14 _ 07 _ 09 _ 07 _ 05 ____ 04 _ 00 ______ 46
Rameire ______________ 09 _ 12 _ 11 _ 03 _ 03 ____ 06 _ 00 ______ 44
mickger844posts _______ 23 _ 05 _ 03 _ 02 _ 04 ____ 07 _ 00 ______ 44
DOCARCH _____________07 _ 04 _ 18 _ 03 _ 03 ____ 07 _ 00 ______ 42
Sunflower3 ____________11 _ 18 _ 00 _ 07 _ 01 ____ 03 _ 01 ______ 41
John mac __ (-1) _______04 _ 03 _ 18 _ 07 _ 02 ____ 03 _ 03 __40-1=39
MrSkinner ____________ 09 _ 00 _ 11 _ 07 _ 02 ____ 07 _ 00 ______ 36
Dasa29 _______________07 _ 01 _ 01 _ 09 _ 10 ____ 06 _ 01 ______ 35
Bsal _________________ 09 _ 03 _ 00 _ 11 _ 05 ____ 05 _ 01 ______ 34
200motels ___ (-13) ____24 _ 07 _ 02 _ 01 _ 04 ____ 07 _ 00 _45-13=32

NormaL ______________ 01 _ 00 _ 14 _ 07 _ 04 ____ 04 _ 01 ______ 31


Minimum progression used for MAX, PRC

Actual forecasts can be found in previous version of provisional scoring.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 28-06-2018 at 15:31.
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28-06-2018, 18:57   #70
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31.7C at Shannon Airport today
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29-06-2018, 09:44   #71
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31.7C at Shannon Airport today
Now showing 32C for Shannon in yesterday's data
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29-06-2018, 10:54   #72
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The IMT rose again to 15.7 C after the 28th averaged 20.5 C. The fourth week average was 17.4, 3.0 above normal even though the first two days of the week were a bit cooler than average).

MAX topped out at 32.0 at Shannon on 28th. The daily minimum was 7.8 at Gurteen where the high was 29.8, a very large daily range for this time of year.

PRC now under 38% with the drought intensifying. The fourth week was bone dry, average 0% (JC had 1% from 0.1 mm, and the rest had zero) -- Oak Park has had 5 mm for the month which will be 8% of normal. Dublin A not in the contest grid has had 4.8 mm which would be 7% of their normal amount of 66.7 mm.

SUN reached its theoretical limit at 94.1 hours, very close to 290% of normal, and that makes the monthly average now 136%. The fourth week has recorded the astronomical value of 271% of normal (1672/600), Casement lagged at 256% .

An entire month like these last four days would be a singularity of epic proportions. Even the month we have is something fairly close to previous record holders.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 29-06-2018 at 16:42.
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30-06-2018, 15:17   #73
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The IMT has reached 15.84 after 29 days and seems likely to end up at 15.9 rounded now instead of 16.0 ... can never totally be certain of the tracking comparisons of different data but from 15.84, to get to 15.96 today will require about 19.6 and I expect something closer to 18. We shall see what the monthly data average say tomorrow. The 29th had another high average or IMT value of 21.1 C (the highest yet) and Shannon had 23.3 C, warmer than any day in the June CET by 0.3.

The MAX yesterday was 31.1 at Shannon which leaves the previous 32.0 unscathed, and today won't change anything there. The daily minimum was 10.1 at the urban cool island of Dublin A. Today's minimum won't change the monthly value we have, 2.1 C.

Once again, almost no returns from rain gauges, 0.1 mm at Malin Head. That leaves PRC down around 36% now. Today could get a small sampling in the grid but I doubt that it will change the end of month outcome from 35% or whatever the monthly data show, sometimes my day to day tracking gets a bit off course.

Only a very slim chance that later today might any activity intrude on the finality of the bonus question (would need 21 mm of rain somewhere).

SUN ... oops, I did it again. 92.9 hours, close to 280% of normal, monthly estimate now 141%. A bit more cloud today might help stabilize the ascent but we'll score from 140 anyway unless the MS convinces me to go below 138 for any reason.
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01-07-2018, 15:47   #74
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Final IMT 16.0 ... the 30th average was 19.0.

Final MAX 32.0 ... the 30th was 28.2 at Athenry.

Final MIN 2.1 .... the 30th was 8.9 at Moorepark.

Final PRC 34% ... zero rain in the grid on 30th.

Final SUN 144% ... 78.4h (235%) on 30th.

Will check the MS to confirm these but scoring likely to be maintained as per the most recent table.

Annual scoring update may follow in a few days when the June scoring is confirmed.

Congrats to Joe Public, rikand and sdanseo for coming closest in this challenging month.
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04-07-2018, 03:15   #75
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The provisional scores are the final scores ... all temp data confirmed, PRC was actually 36% (same outcome for scoring) and sunshine averaged 8.02 hours a day at the six stations, the mean is 5.5, so the percentage is closer to 145% than my estimate of 140%. I will leave the sunshine scoring alone since the only other alternative is to drop everyone by one point, and the June scoring is already rather low.

So that being said, the table back a few posts is our final scoring, and it's on to the annual update ...

will edit that in as you sleep (or toss in the searing heat) ...

Annual Scoring Summary for 2018 (Jan to June)

rank _FORECASTER _______ JAN _ FEB _ MAR _ APR _ MAY _JUN _ TOTAL _ MAY rank __ best 5/6 (rank)

01 _Pauldry______________ 73 __ 58 __ 89 __ 48 __ 76 __ 59 ___ 403 ___ 01 ____ 355 (1)
02 _Rikand ______________ 66 __ 64 __ 62 __ 61 __ 74 __ 65 ___ 392 ___ 04 ____ 331 (4)
03 _Dacogawa ____________71 __ 67 __ 70 __ 67 __ 63 __ 52 ___ 390 ___ 02 ____ 338 (2)

(04) _ Con Sensus ________ 73 __ 67 __ 69 __ 51 __ 71 __ 54 ___ 385 ___(03) ____331 (t-4)

04 _sryanbruen ___________56 __ 71 __ 65 __ 60 __ 74 __ 46 ___ 372 ___ 05 ____ 326 (7)
05 _DOCARCH ____________63 __ 62 __ 75 __ 61 __ 68 __ 42 ___ 371 ___ 03 ____ 329 (5)
06 _Jpmarn ______________71 __ 61 __ 49 __ 57 __ 68 __ 60 ___ 366 ___ 10 ____ 317 (11)
t07_mickger844posts ______ 75 __ 77 __ 69 __ 42 __ 54 __ 44 ___ 361 ___ 07 ____ 319 (9)
t07_waterways ___________ 81 __ 34 __ 51 __ 73 __ 76 __ 46 ___ 361 ___ 08 ____ 327 (6)
09 _BLIZZARD7 ___________27 __ 73 __ 46 __ 70 __ 92 __ 52 ___ 360 ___ 09 ____ 333 (3)
10 _MrSkinner ____________73 __ 64 __ 72 __ 42 __ 69 __ 36 ___ 356 ___ 06 ____ 320 (8)
11 _Tae laidir ____________ 78 __ 53 __ 63 __ 47 __ 61 __ 52 ___ 354 ___ 11t ____ 307 (12)
12 _Joe Public ____________ 35 __ 62 __ 48 __ 81 __ 61 __ 66 ___ 353 ___ 16 ____ 318 (10)
13 _M.T. Cranium _________ 60 __ 45 __ 52 __ 56 __ 86 __ 49 ___ 348 ___ 14 ____ 303 (13)
14 _Rameire _____________ 52 __ 56 __ 67 __ 49 __ 76 __ 44 ___ 344 ___ 13 ____ 300 (17)
15 _sunflower3 ___________ 68 __ 56 __ 63 __ 58 __ 57 __ 41 ___ 343 ___ 11t ____302 (t14)

(16) NormaL _____________ 75 __ 52 __ 48 __ 71 __ 63 __ 31 ___ 340 ___(09) ___ 309 (12)

t16_sdanseo _____________ 45 __ 61 __ 57 __ 52 __ 57 __ 64 ___ 336 ___ 20 ____ 291 (19)
t16_JCXBXC ______________34 __ 72 __ 54 __ 43 __ 77 __ 56 ___ 336 ___ 18 ____ 302 (t14)
18 _dasa29 ______________ 69 __ 40 __ 83 __ 43 __ 54 __ 35 ___ 324 ___ 15 ____ 289 (20)
19 _Kindred Spirit. ________ 59 __ 56 __ 55 __ 28 __ 66 __ 57 ___ 321 ___ 22 ____ 293 (18)
20 _200motels ____________36 __ 65 __ 47 __ 49 __ 85 __ 32 ___ 314 ___ 17 ____ 282 (21)
21 _Bsal _________________63 __ 49 __ 71 __ 38 __ 56 __ 34 ___ 311 ___ 19 ____ 277 (22)
22 _john mac ____________ 48 __ 58 __ 58 __ 42 __ 63 __ 39 ___ 308 ___ 21 ____ 269 (23)
23 _Lumi ________________54 __ 54 __ 62 __ --- __ 77 __ 55 ___ 302 ___ 23 ____ 302 (t14)
24 _Artane2002 ___________--- __ --- __ ---__ 59 __ 57 __ 47 ___ 163 ___ 24
25 _Adam240610 _________ --- __ --- __ 56 __ --- __ ---__ --- ___ 056 ___ 25
________________________________________________________________

Pauldry holds on to a lead but Rikand moves past Dacogawa into second place, NormaL drops
quite a few spots due to the anomalous June weather that most people at least partially guessed
correctly was on its way (more extreme than most of us imagined).

Will show July annual scoring with two lowest taken out and ranks for that will foreshadow the
final results of the more significant contest we have, best ten of twelve scores.

Starting to edge towards that this month with the final column showing best 5 of 6.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 04-07-2018 at 05:23.
M.T. Cranium is online now  
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