Winter 2017-18: Discussion

MJohnston · 25-01-2018 5:49pm

Neddy are you a farmer?

https://m.independent.ie/business/farming/dairy/dairy-farm-profiles/we-havent-had-three-dry-days-here-since-july-dairy-farmer-on-managing-one-of-irelands-top-ebi-herds-36469257.html

Definitely had plenty of dry days here in Dublin this month:

Dublin_Airport_RAIN.png?1647

Oscar Bravo · 25-01-2018 5:53pm

Lots of high tops around today

sryanbruen · 25-01-2018 5:59pm

The question on our minds at the moment is that will the beast be unleashed in February 2018? When it comes to the bigger picture - i.e. my methodology I use to make my forecasts - it does look pretty compelling.

The significant stratosphere warming (again not a SSW though) is still up for grabs in early February on the GFS runs, see the latest 12z for example below. Even the ECM is showing some warming going on in the stratosphere (though only at 10hPa and not at 30hPa at all).

I will not put any bets (you should never do gambling on weather anyway) on the Beast From the East coming but what I can say is that something is certainly up in the air here.

Soccarboy11 · 25-01-2018 6:00pm

Frozen February please! Will do nicely

Harry Palmr · 25-01-2018 6:05pm

ABC101 wrote: »

Maybe there will be less opposition now to using some of the Shannon water to supply Dublin and the East coast?

"they'll never take our water, which we're up to our waists in!"

The wesht should be glad they are being charged to get rid of it.

Neddyusa · 25-01-2018 6:21pm

MJohnston wrote: »

Neddy are you a farmer?

https://m.independent.ie/business/farming/dairy/dairy-farm-profiles/we-havent-had-three-dry-days-here-since-july-dairy-farmer-on-managing-one-of-irelands-top-ebi-herds-36469257.html

Definitely had plenty of dry days here in Dublin this month:

Haha - funny enough I am MJ, but not the one in the link. :pac:
(Hadnt seen that article, so interesting to see his memory of the 2017-18 deluge matches mine)
Ground here has not been as saturated and waterlogged since the last half of 2009...and even back then the wet run of months was not as prolonged.

Don't be making me jealous with your talk of East Coast dry days!...isn't it well for ye

JCX BXC · 25-01-2018 6:43pm

"there been 3 dry days since July"

To me that sounda alot more like some local gossip as opposed to actually being factual.

Neddyusa · 25-01-2018 7:22pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

"there been 3 dry days since July"

To me that sounda alot more like some local gossip as opposed to actually being factual.

"Three consecutive dry days" was what was stated in the article and is pretty accurate for this area.

You may find the odd instance of 3 to 4 days together with 0.0 or "trace" precipitation recorded at some climatalogical stations in the west since last summer, but many of those technically "dry" days have featured heavy mist, drizzle or fog with RH in the high 90%s and so wouldn't be classed as dry to the average punter/farmer.

BLIZZARD7 · 25-01-2018 8:01pm

MJO forecasts starting to look interesting now - GFS showing us heading for a high amplitude phase 6/7 - heading towards high phase 8.

Phase 7-8 would be very nice heading into February, that's exactly where we want it for any major pressure rises to our North ala today's GFS 12z run.

These are the composites for MJO phase 7 and high amplitude phase 8 -

GFS 12z Run in FI - could do with the high being 500 miles further north in the previous frames.

gfsnh-0-360.png?12

GEFS has some very cold members appearing on the last few runs -

The ECM isn't quite so keen on the MJO heading towards high amplitude phase 7 and beyond just yet so worth keeping that in mind.

We would preferably want to see an uptick in global angular momentum too for this to work out smoothly. I must add my understanding of how the MJO interacts with our current ENSO position isn't amazing *Sryanbruen might be of help there. Continued signs we will see some form of warming in the strat too.

Edit : found a good link explaining MJO - https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-mjo-and-why-do-we-care

All in all I think there are some tentative signs that we may see a potent cold burst from the East/North east in February but this is all into FI for now - the building blocks are being put into place though.

Oneiric 3 · 25-01-2018 11:50pm

Neddyusa wrote: »

"Three consecutive dry days" was what was stated in the article and is pretty accurate for this area.

You may find the odd instance of 3 to 4 days together with 0.0 or "trace" precipitation recorded at some climatalogical stations in the west since last summer, but many of those technically "dry" days have featured heavy mist, drizzle or fog with RH in the high 90%s and so wouldn't be classed as dry to the average punter/farmer.

Very poor drying on the very few relatively dry days I have noticed over the last few months. with Rh seemingly to be constantly high, relative to the seasonal norm.

We really need good, stiff continental easterly here in the west to ensure a few dry days with low humidity and good drying and good hard frosts in the winter months.

Xenji · 26-01-2018 12:57am

It has been a bad January rainfall wise in Castlebar, 234mm of rain so far, making it the wettest month since January 2016 here.

Elmer Blooker · 26-01-2018 11:38am

I love the way the quiet sun causes the jet stream to buckle and meander giving us northern blocking and a very cold winter! :rolleyes:
NOW: http://www.spaceweather.com/images2018/25jan18/hmi1898.gif?PHPSESSID=3a55pko6f2lk8svuas3cq858b7
A very blocked Atlantic I must say!
Someone will post that we will have to wait until next winter to benefit from the solar minimum but I see no reason why that high (named after a group of Portuguese islands) won't be there next winter ..... and the next one and the one after that ......
Moan over. I'll be back when something interesting appears at T+6.

UW120-21.GIF?26-06

sryanbruen · 26-01-2018 12:06pm

Rainfall Warning for Kerry

Rainfall accumulations of 25 to 40mm, with the highest totals in the Mountains.

Issued:Friday 26 January 2018 11:00
Valid:Friday 26 January 2018 16:00 to Saturday 27 January 2018 09:00

sryanbruen · 26-01-2018 3:55pm

Just looking at the stratosphere on the GFS 06z now and look how displaced the cold stratosphere temps are at the end of the run.

pauldry · 26-01-2018 5:10pm

Surely to God February has to be dry.

We had 7 drier than normal months in Sligo in late 2016 and early 2017 and then normal for one or two and then wet to extremely wet for the next few.

The 3 consecutive dry days thing is correct for Sligo

The last time it was dry for 48 hours plus was 24th and 25th of July

We are "due" to go back to a drier than normal month and surely it will be February.

Id say a dry Spring relative to normal is quite likely. Or isnt february still Winter outside of School where they try to trick you what season it is!

acequion · 27-01-2018 4:32pm

I've often got lynched on this forum for stating my absolute detestation of the Irish climate,especially here in Kerry where muck is the order of the day winter and summer.

I'm a big fan of hot summers and cold winters so the constant teen temps drive me crazy! Temperatures in the teens is a non event, winter or summer.

So are the chances of a nice cold snap over now that we're almost in our Irish Spring? Anyone?? I'd just love a cold, crisp dry spell,if only for a few days.And by cold I'm talking maybe 5-7 degrees, as like 22-24 degrees in summer, that's about as good as you'll ever get in Kerry!

sryanbruen · 27-01-2018 5:47pm

acequion wrote: »

I've often got lynched on this forum for stating my absolute detestation of the Irish climate,especially here in Kerry where muck is the order of the day winter and summer.

I'm a big fan of hot summers and cold winters so the constant teen temps drive me crazy! Temperatures in the teens is a non event, winter or summer.

So are the chances of a nice cold snap over now that we're almost in our Irish Spring? Anyone?? I'd just love a cold, crisp dry spell,if only for a few days.And by cold I'm talking maybe 5-7 degrees, as like 22-24 degrees in summer, that's about as good as you'll ever get in Kerry!

First of all, welcome back acequion

.

Second, the majority of the models last night were pretty much going for a significant cold spell in early February, some were less extreme than others - like the GFS was pretty much over the top with what it was showing. The GFS has backtracked today with milder solutions now for early February - as was expected to be honest given what it was showing yesterday. The little stratospheric warming sticks today however and everything's still up in the air regarding early February. After this mild weekend, it's going to turn quite cold for a time this week before some milder weather again next weekend. The 4th-6th February is the turning point on the models for something significantly colder (by significantly colder, I mean the beast from the east) as of recently, not today though on the GFS as it has backtracked. I am still firming up on what February could be like so I'm focusing on the next week maximum at least - which is not like me given my favourite things to do of long range forecasting and weather history.

Remember too that it's more likely to snow at Easter than Christmas. March 2018 is looking quite cold going by my methodology and the signs from other sources also.

Gonzo · 27-01-2018 5:59pm

acequion wrote: »

I've often got lynched on this forum for stating my absolute detestation of the Irish climate,especially here in Kerry where muck is the order of the day winter and summer.

I'm a big fan of hot summers and cold winters so the constant teen temps drive me crazy! Temperatures in the teens is a non event, winter or summer.

So are the chances of a nice cold snap over now that we're almost in our Irish Spring? Anyone?? I'd just love a cold, crisp dry spell,if only for a few days.And by cold I'm talking maybe 5-7 degrees, as like 22-24 degrees in summer, that's about as good as you'll ever get in Kerry!

Unfortunately Ireland is not a country known for cold, dry winters and warm hot summers. The conditions you describe is what our weather is best known for, a small island with mild, wet winters surrounded by the warm currents of the north Atlantic drift and wild Atlantic ocean, all this has a cooling effect for our summer.

It is what it is, we are were we are. On very rare occasions we get temporarily brushed by a more continental influence in winter resulting in heavy frosts and snow trains from the east and warm, sometimes hot plumes from Spain/France in the summer. Ireland is usually the last country to reach these conditions and the first country to lose them.

The nearest we can get to for a half respectable summer is the south-east UK, especially London and the nearest we can get to for a half decent winter is northern Scotland but more preferably Germany or parts of eastern France.

As for this winter and what's left of it, we are still in with a shot for some cold this February,

sryanbruen · 27-01-2018 5:59pm

The GFS 06z had downgraded the displaced PV somewhat earlier for the end of its run.

Now, look at this from the GFS 12z, that's quite an upgrade, -20c isotherm to the south of Greenland!

sryanbruen · 27-01-2018 6:18pm

Nice evening at Grange after quite an overcast day.

hnO5t66.jpg?1

Mod Note: Resized Pic

Meteorite58 · 27-01-2018 7:40pm

Breezy tomorrow and getting increasingly windy along the NW, W and the SW during the afternoon. Winds increasing across the country tomorrow evening ,from the SW initially and later veering to the W and NW. Mild day. Should remain dry for most apart from Northern counties and low cloud near coasts and hills might produce light rain / mist, feeling a bit humid I would imagine . Could do with a chance for the land to dry out a bit here in Kerry before the rain spreads down the country early Mon Morning, but amounts don't look too heavy. Cooler day Monday.

acequion · 28-01-2018 4:22am

Gonzo wrote: »

Unfortunately Ireland is not a country known for cold, dry winters and warm hot summers. The conditions you describe is what our weather is best known for, a small island with mild, wet winters surrounded by the warm currents of the north Atlantic drift and wild Atlantic ocean, all this has a cooling effect for our summer.

It is what it is, we are were we are. On very rare occasions we get temporarily brushed by a more continental influence in winter resulting in heavy frosts and snow trains from the east and warm, sometimes hot plumes from Spain/France in the summer. Ireland is usually the last country to reach these conditions and the first country to lose them.

The nearest we can get to for a half respectable summer is the south-east UK, especially London and the nearest we can get to for a half decent winter is northern Scotland but more preferably Germany or parts of eastern France.

As for this winter and what's left of it, we are still in with a shot for some cold this February,

Thanks guys

Gonzo I don't think we'd have to go all the way over to Germany for a decent winter. I lived in Brussels for most of the 90's and while listening to the Belgians complain you'd think they were talking about Ireland and they do get their share of rain,but I remember lovely frosty weather in winter and some scorching spells in summer.

Thanks synanbruen for the forecasts.

George Sunsnow · 28-01-2018 9:32am

Unfortunately even more extreme cold over Canada means a continuation of our current mobile Atlantic weather well into February I would think
Looks certain to me that continental influences if they ever happen will be in the late spring or Easter again so minimally effective snow wise and a nuisance

OldRio · 28-01-2018 2:35pm

pauldry wrote: »

Surely to God February has to be dry.

We had 7 drier than normal months in Sligo in late 2016 and early 2017 and then normal for one or two and then wet to extremely wet for the next few.

The 3 consecutive dry days thing is correct for Sligo

The last time it was dry for 48 hours plus was 24th and 25th of July

We are "due" to go back to a drier than normal month and surely it will be February.

Id say a dry Spring relative to normal is quite likely. Or isnt february still Winter outside of School where they try to trick you what season it is!

Same here in Leitrim. Wet weather since July. The ground is saturated. The lakes full. We could be in serious trouble if the land doesn't get a chance to dry out.

Oscar Bravo · 28-01-2018 11:26pm

Windy ahead of the cold front

Malin head gusting 47 knots
Finner 44 knots
Belmullet 35 knots
Mace head 35 knots

Winds will back north westerly after the front and ease
WEB_Analysis.png?2225

km79 · 29-01-2018 12:00am

TIs windy out!

Meteorite58 · 29-01-2018 12:37am

So entering a cooler spell from Monday with frost in places at nights.

Colder from Tues Evening into Weds showing a cold blustery NW'ly feeding in some Wintry precipitation. Will be on the watch for Thunderstorms from late Tues into Weds .

nacho libre · 29-01-2018 4:37pm

With that record cold over Canada, any blocking that does ocur will be sunk or shunted away pretty fast. It may hang on in the very east of England, but even there i doubt it will once the systems get going. I think it will be after mid February if we are to get any sustained cold here from the east or north east.

Oscar Bravo · 30-01-2018 6:48pm

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick
Westerly winds veering Northwest will reach at times 55-60 km/hr near coastal fringes.

Issued:Tuesday 30 January 2018 16:00
Valid:Wednesday 31 January 2018 06:00 to Wednesday 31 January 2018 23:59

sryanbruen · 30-01-2018 7:07pm

As soon as I decide to take a break from model watching..... this happened on the GFS 00z this morning :rolleyes:.

Winter 2017-18: Discussion

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