Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas · 12-06-2021 3:34pm

FuzzyThinking wrote: »

He’s also surrounded by a whole group of ministers of similar mentality. It’s a government that got into office though spin and there’s little or no meaningful opposition and in the current configurations of Westminster he’s facing almost no checks and balances at all.

Trump at least regularly ended up being legally challenged, didn’t always have his way in the house and senate many state governors and governments were hugely opposed to him and was even impeached, although not removed and there was a massive and irreconcilable public divide about him. He split the country, split the media and commentary and opened up all the cracks and fissures, to the point it boiled over into riots on the left and an armed siege of the legislature by the right.

That’s never, ever going to happen in the U.K. and public opinion seems to be far less critical and have largely united behind Brexit and are buying the spin of plucky Little Britain against the big bad world

But this is doing serious damage to the UK's reputation. Also, being a pariah state will do nothing but hurt them economically. It should be a government's job to protect a country from the millions of thickos among the ranks, not pander to them.

ClosedAccountFuzzy · 12-06-2021 3:40pm

Strazdas wrote: »

But this is doing serious damage to the UK's reputation. Also, being a pariah state will do nothing but hurt them economically. It should be a government's job to protect a country from the millions of thickos among the ranks, not pander to them.

Not really. That would imply the government has a motive loftier than simply getting elected. The current government only seem to care about retaining power and tabloid headlines. There would normally be an expectation that the permanent government - the civil service, would act as a stabilising rudder but that really hasn’t happened and they very definitely been ignored, stepped around, or just stepped upon.

cameramonkey · 12-06-2021 3:47pm

Boris's behavior has to be understood in the context of domestic UK politics. He will say anything to retain power that has to be remembered. His thing is to keep in power by neutering Labour. The Labour leadership has been poor on Europe and they are getting worse, Stamer is useless and caught in the spotlight unable to move. By keeping the issue Europe and the NIP Stamare has nowhere to attack the Tories. If Starmer goes on the attack he will be seen to undermine the UK and be too pro Europe, Boris knows this so The NIP is an easy sausage to beat Europe with and all the little Englanders will pile in behind. It does not matter what Boris does it is what he says that counts for the English nationalists. He will back down again with Europe when push comes to shove as he will be faced with overwhelming odds. The UK against the EU plus US is a battle the UK can not win. He will also be hard on the SCots because again he will corner Starmer, Labour will have to back the Tories and sit on the sideline cheering them on as any other position would be seen to damage the union. This is all about UK politics and retaining power, Boris will back down again after shouting from the rooftops to stir up the rabble.

Look at past Boris actions for an indication of future intentions. The DUP should tread carefully for they are in for another letdown.

Strazdas · 12-06-2021 3:57pm

FuzzyThinking wrote: »

Not really. That would imply the government has a motive loftier than simply getting elected. The current government only seem to care about retaining power and tabloid headlines. There would normally be an expectation that the permanent government - the civil service, would act as a stabilising rudder but that really hasn’t happened and they very definitely been ignored, stepped around, or just stepped upon.

I totally get the Tory / Brexiter strategy of being in power for the sake of being in power and having no grand vision or policies, but I think they are underestimating just how much this damages Britain. This could only work if the UK was some sort of industrial powerhouse with countries queuing up to do business with them.

ClosedAccountFuzzy · 12-06-2021 4:01pm

The other issue is that there appears to be a core group who are quite happy with the concept of reducing the U.K. being like Singapore-Upon-Thames; a compact, super wealthy, offshore financial hub.

The whole concept of having to “carry” the other 55 million people or actually run a mid sized social democratic country, with multiple regions with differing needs is just a stumbling block to them. That’s all just an overhead.

ClosedAccountFuzzy · 12-06-2021 4:10pm

Strazdas wrote: »

I totally get the Tory / Brexiter strategy of being in power for the sake of being in power and having no grand vision or policies, but I think they are underestimating just how much this damages Britain. This could only work if the UK was some sort of industrial powerhouse with countries queuing up to do business with them.

You have to understand though that they have a totally distorted vision of what the U.K. is and does. They operate in a world of rhetoric, symbolism, grand statements, nostalgia and imagination.

To them, Britain is just intrinsically great because of some exceptionalism or almost Devine right and notions of empire and something about the industrial revolution, which of course was nothing to do with living on top of coal and iron seams, but was all due to something special about the inhabitants of the nation. It’s about crowns, pomp and an enormous sense of entitlement.

They give little thought to practicalities, trade or innovation or to what competition they face or who would buy their products or services.

The boring reality of economics or how business works is just dull minutiae to them and it’s been demonstrated again and again as they’ve put lofty ideas ahead of any notion of how they could be implemented. Then when they don’t work they’ve a tendency to actually blame business.

They crashed the trading economy and logistics sector straight into Brexit having basically lied to them over and over.

They did exactly the same to Northern Ireland.

They are talking about “global Britain” yet seem to be going out of their way to cut themselves off.

The list goes on and on. You’re dealing with rabid nationalism, not pragmatism or anything that has its foundations in realty.

Strazdas · 12-06-2021 4:15pm

FuzzyThinking wrote: »

You have to understand though that they have a totally distorted vision of what the U.K. is and does. They operate in a world of rhetoric, symbolism, grand statements, nostalgia and imagination.

The boring reality of economics or how business works is just dull minutiae to them and it’s been demonstrated again and again as they’ve put lofty ideas ahead of any notion of how they could be implemented. Then when they don’t work they’ve a tendency to actually blame business.

Yes, it's a fair summing up of what's happening. It must be one of the first UK governments to operate in such a reckless or renegade fashion though - totally unserious people and quite incompetent to boot.

Even Margaret Thatcher, for all her faults, cared about the country's reputation and would never have said 'F business' and 'F the EU'.

pixelburp · 12-06-2021 4:30pm

Trump showed that a canny government can paper over a lot of accountability and scrutiny by permanently operating in "campaign" mode. Who needs detail when the minutaie can be constantly kicked down the road with sloganeering, leveraging a nation historically ambivalent towards its neighbours at best, jingoistic at worst. GB News will only engrain that sensibility more, under the guise of an "alternative opinion"

Sam Russell · 12-06-2021 4:36pm

pixelburp wrote: »

GB News will only engrain that sensibility more, under the guise of an "alternative opinion"

With there own alternative facts.

Where have I heard that expression before?

BonnieSituation · 12-06-2021 4:52pm

Strazdas wrote: »

Here's a transcript of the Beth Rigby interview. It's anyone's guess what Johnson is up to talking like this in the middle of a summit :

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1403699999674966022

He pretty much repeated this to Laura K.

Really going in on the territorial integrity angle now.

Oafley Jones · 12-06-2021 4:54pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

With there own alternative facts.

Where have I heard that expression before?

I still people are overstating the possible impact of GB News. What do you think it’s reach will be? Bare in mind Sky News weekly viewers usually tops out at 250k, with 160k being the average top rated show during week days. The hourly bulletin stuff can drop to the ten thousand during the day. And this is with a Covid bump atm. I don’t think there’s a market for it and I can’t see how it’ll be any way financially viable.

Igotadose · 12-06-2021 4:58pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

He pretty much repeated this to Laura K.

Really going on on the territorial integrity angle now.

What nonsense. It's Johnson et al who didn't understand that the UK is not "One territory."

In other news, apparently Lord Frost wore Union Jack socks to a G& meeting with UVL, Bojo and others: https://www.politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-northern-ireland-g7-brexit-biden/

Professor Moriarty · 12-06-2021 4:59pm

Oafley Jones wrote: »

I still people are overstating the possible impact of GB News. What do you think it’s reach will be? Bare in mind Sky News weekly viewers usually tops out at 250k, with 160k being the average top rated show during week days. The hourly bulletin stuff can drop to the ten thousand during the day. And this is with a Covid bump atm. I don’t think there’s a market for it and I can’t see how it’ll be any way financially viable.

I hope you're right. Depressing to think that it might become the British Fox News.

pixelburp · 12-06-2021 5:04pm

Oafley Jones wrote: »

I still people are overstating the possible impact of GB News. What do you think it’s reach will be? Bare in mind Sky News weekly viewers usually tops out at 250k, with 160k being the average top rated show during week days. The hourly bulletin stuff can drop to the ten thousand during the day. And this is with a Covid bump atm. I don’t think there’s a market for it and I can’t see how it’ll be any way financially viable.

Ah but, we both know the internet, and social media especially, has allowed conventionally small voices shout much louder, and be heard by much greater umbers than any traditional, ostensible viewership. I'd be bold enough to make a prediction that within the first 6 months GB News will be a "viral" success for some awful, incendiary clip of <insert name here> on a typical flashpoint subject (immigrants, Muslims, the EU, something) and we'll be here talking about it. The viewership might be tiny, the Twitter subs list I bet will be better.

Strazdas · 12-06-2021 5:21pm

pixelburp wrote: »

Trump showed that a canny government can paper over a lot of accountability and scrutiny by permanently operating in "campaign" mode. Who needs detail when the minutaie can be constantly kicked down the road with sloganeering, leveraging a nation historically ambivalent towards its neighbours at best, jingoistic at worst. GB News will only engrain that sensibility more, under the guise of an "alternative opinion"

It's definitely a weird way of running a country. Being in power for the sake of being in power : deliberately alienate and antagonise one half of the country, as it will guarantee that the other half will vote for you.

The culture war stuff is especially interesting. It's clear that the Johnson fanboys in the press think it will keep their man in power.

Itssoeasy · 12-06-2021 5:34pm

I saw a headline on Sky news where Dominic Raab was taking about how the “EU have to be more flexible on Northern Ireland” which surely at some point the EU if they haven’t already need to pull them on statements like this. There’s two parties to this agreement and the UK make it sound like it’s been put upon by the EU. Now, I realise that that was for a domestic audience but geek still this whole crap about the EU being unreasonable is ridiculous. The Northern Ireland protocol is the way it is because of the UK asking for it to be included. I think I’m correct in that, and so any issue are the UKs fault.

Oafley Jones · 12-06-2021 5:44pm

pixelburp wrote: »

Ah but, we both know the internet, and social media especially, has allowed conventionally small voices shout much louder, and be heard by much greater umbers than any traditional, ostensible viewership. I'd be bold enough to make a prediction that within the first 6 months GB News will be a "viral" success for some awful, incendiary clip of <insert name here> on a typical flashpoint subject (immigrants, Muslims, the EU, something) and we'll be here talking about it. The viewership might be tiny, the Twitter subs list I bet will be better.

More than likely, but it’s still a business with bills to pay.

Strazdas · 13-06-2021 12:03am

British Sunday newspapers reporting that Macron told Johnson that NI is a different country to Britain (hence the Irish Protocol). Johnson became angry and pulled him up on it, telling him the United Kingdom is "one country".

This also explains his comments to Beth Rigby a bit later where he made the same point.

BonnieSituation · 13-06-2021 12:14am

Strazdas wrote: »

British Sunday newspapers reporting that Macron told Johnson that NI is a different country to Britain (hence the Irish Protocol). Johnson became angry and pulled him up on it, telling him the United Kingdom is "one country".

This also explains his comments to Beth Rigby a bit later where he made the same point.

That is fantastic

reslfj · 13-06-2021 12:57am

Akrasia wrote: »

The EU would not wait ..... there would probably be an Irish land border within weeks

Fastina lente in the island of Ireland. Ireland has done nothing wrong and NI voted remain.

The EU will be much more effective when it de facto closes the routes from England into continental EU.

The volume is so much larger here and it will hit England much faster, harder and more directly.

But the EU will be slow and work within the rules of the WTO and the treaties it has signed.
It will most likely not directly punish the UK, but just let the English red-tape bite English business in full.

The UK economy will be killed fairly fast anyway.

Lars

reslfj · 13-06-2021 12:59am

BonnieSituation wrote: »

That is fantastic

No that is FANTASY.

Lars

Akrasia · 13-06-2021 2:11am

reslfj wrote: »

Fastina lente in the island of Ireland. Ireland has done nothing wrong and NI voted remain.

The EU will be much more effective when it de facto closes the routes from England into continental EU.

The volume is so much larger here and it will hit England much faster, harder and more directly.

But the EU will be slow and work within the rules of the WTO and the treaties it has signed.
It will most likely not directly punish the UK, but just let the English red-tape bite English business in full.

The UK economy will be killed fairly fast anyway.

Lars

If the EU puts restrictions or tariffs on the Eng/EU border, suddenly anyone wanting to avoid tariffs or scrutiny, decides to take the long way around

The EU can no longer rely on the NI/UK sea border because Johnson has said he's ignoring it, so it becomes a back door into the EU through NI

Ireland will be faced with a choice between a border at Newry, or a border at roslare

13-06-2021 4:04am

Akrasia wrote: »

If the EU puts restrictions or tariffs on the Eng/EU border, suddenly anyone wanting to avoid tariffs or scrutiny, decides to take the long way around

The EU can no longer rely on the NI/UK sea border because Johnson has said he's ignoring it, so it becomes a back door into the EU through NI

Ireland will be faced with a choice between a border at Newry, or a border at roslare

But not immediately. You can't just reroute all GB-EU trade through NI, Ireland, and then the long ferry. It would be devastating to GB to stop trade across the English Channel. It would not be devastating to let some GB stuff slip into the EU through NI for a period of time.

reslfj · 13-06-2021 4:55am

Deleted User wrote: »

But not immediately. You can't just reroute all GB-EU trade through NI, Ireland, and then the long ferry. It would be devastating to GB to stop trade across the English Channel. It would not be devastating to let some GB stuff slip into the EU through NI for a period of time.

Indeed.

If* the EU closes traffic directly from England across the English Channel it will be huge volumes of goods being stopped. Closure could just be in the form of high tariffs.

These volumes of goods can't be rerouted on English lorries (few EU owners will dare allowing driving their lorries into England) passing into Belfast or Larne, driving to the ferry, without being stopped in Ostend or Cherbourg - if for no other reason then because of having UK number plates.

The EU is not that stupid. And if* it is forced into action, it will act, act firmly and confiscate lorry and contraband. Driver may be fines or locked up.

That's how smugglers are dealt with (much more humane these days, than being hanged too)

Lars

* A big IF - the EU knows how to maximise the effect with the least effort.

CelticRambler · 13-06-2021 7:30am

Akrasia wrote: »

If the EU puts restrictions or tariffs on the Eng/EU border, suddenly anyone wanting to avoid tariffs or scrutiny, decides to take the long way around

If the amount of traffic that crosses the English Channel, delivered to the Channel Ports on a well-connected, well-managed motorway system was suddenly rerouted into NI, there'd be a de-facto border in Co.Down as the roads became gridlocked with lorries waiting for places on ferries that never had to cope with that kind of traffic before.

Adding two more days onto a lobster's journey to Spain isn't going to help yerwan in Cornwall, even if she can find a way to get around whatever new checks and tariffs are put in place.

And besides, there's still the problem for legitimate businesses: you cannot remain legitimate while engaging in illegal activity. Even in NI, the vast majority of businesses are not loyalist drug smugglers, so they want up-front, transparent, predictable controls - exactly the kind of measures that are written into the NIP.

Itssoeasy · 13-06-2021 9:34am

So that’s boris and Dominic raab who are pissed off at what macron supposedly said about Northern Ireland. I’m not that cut up for them seeing as they treat it like an afterthought and only use the MPs that come from there when they can be of use.

13-06-2021 9:40am

Same Raab who had perused the GFA?

My heart bleeds for him

pixelburp · 13-06-2021 9:41am

It's tangential to the Scottish referendum question, because apparently the planned "love bomb" tactic to counter the independence movement is to emphasise this "one nation" concept. It's a strange, aggressive move that feels wildly anglo-centric given it reads like diminishing or ignoring the 3 assemblies - created explicitly to reverse this sense of London primacy that already existed. Is Johnson trying to ape the US, many variations but ultimately all one nation of America?

Itssoeasy · 13-06-2021 9:48am

Alvin Odd Firehouse wrote: »

Same Raab who had perused the GFA?

My heart bleeds for him

The very same and he’s also being complaining who inflexible the EU are in his opinion being in regards to the Northern Ireland protocol which is starting to get annoying. Some journalist should ask any of them “did you sign the withdrawal agreement under duress ?” And when they gave some answer that relates to a no , then they should be asked why they sound like they did.

firemansam4 · 13-06-2021 9:59am

Boris as much as a spoofer as he is, is 100% correct in putting Macron right on this one.
NI, England, Scotland and Wales are all just gorified provinces within one nation. They are not separate countries.
And I am somebody who would like to see a UI, but we can't get away with the facts as what they are at this moment in time.

Scotland had there chance go become their own nation and they blew it.

Thats not to say I agree in any way with anything they are doing in relation to the NI protocol, an international agreement they are just going to disregard.

Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Comments