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Property Market 2019

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Congratulations on the deposit that's good saving. But if you're made unemployed you won't be getting a mortgage.

    Even in a once in a generation recession 84 out of every 100 people were still employed.

    My job is pretty ok I think, even if I'm let go I'll get redundancy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,197 ✭✭✭✭JohnCleary


    I'm hoping for another recession, tbh.

    Bought during the last recession for cash, sold April 2018 (you can guess, I came out winning, also no CGT because of PPR).

    Currently have 80% deposit for what i'd consider 'perfect home' budget. A recession that would bring prices down a few % and boom, I can buy my ideal home with cash.

    C'mon ta fcuk.... I don't want to be waiting around any longer.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,502 ✭✭✭ Rex Disgusting Tariff


    JohnCleary wrote: »
    I'm hoping for another recession, tbh.

    Bought during the last recession for cash, sold April 2018 (you can guess, I came out winning, also no CGT because of PPR).

    Currently have 80% deposit for what i'd consider 'perfect home' budget. A recession that would bring prices down a few % and boom, I can buy my ideal home with cash.

    C'mon ta fcuk.... I don't want to be waiting around any longer.

    How much are ya paying on rent in the meantime ?


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,197 ✭✭✭✭JohnCleary


    How much are ya paying on rent in the meantime ?

    0


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,042 ✭✭✭ Peter Muscular Quirk


    JohnCleary wrote: »
    I'm hoping for another recession, tbh.

    Bought during the last recession for cash, sold April 2018 (you can guess, I came out winning, also no CGT because of PPR).

    Currently have 80% deposit for what i'd consider 'perfect home' budget. A recession that would bring prices down a few % and boom, I can buy my ideal home with cash.

    C'mon ta fcuk.... I don't want to be waiting around any longer.

    Good lad. Did you come in to boast or discuss the title?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,556 ✭✭✭UpTheSlashers


    JohnCleary wrote: »
    I'm hoping for another recession, tbh.

    Bought during the last recession for cash, sold April 2018 (you can guess, I came out winning, also no CGT because of PPR).

    Currently have 80% deposit for what i'd consider 'perfect home' budget. A recession that would bring prices down a few % and boom, I can buy my ideal home with cash.

    C'mon ta fcuk.... I don't want to be waiting around any longer.
    Classy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,357 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    JohnCleary wrote: »
    I'm hoping for another recession, tbh.

    Bought during the last recession for cash, sold April 2018 (you can guess, I came out winning, also no CGT because of PPR).

    Currently have 80% deposit for what i'd consider 'perfect home' budget. A recession that would bring prices down a few % and boom, I can buy my ideal home with cash.

    C'mon ta fcuk.... I don't want to be waiting around any longer.

    There are plenty like you as well. More power to ye.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,563 ✭✭✭stateofflux


    If their wages are cut significantly imagine how the wages in the rest of the country will be effected.

    Rest of Country won't be affected.

    Salary increases of min 10% are overdue from fallout of last recession. FDI related salaries are somewhat outside this.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    Rest of Country won't be affected.

    Salary increases of min 10% are overdue from fallout of last recession. FDI related salaries are somewhat outside this.

    When there is a skill overlap, multinational salaries cannot possibly be completely disconnected from the rest of the job market.

    For exemple even though they work for an Irish organisation, a software developer working for Dublin Bus or an accountant working for Eir do benefit from multinationals drying up the job market and paying better salaries. Their employers won’t match Google levels but they are pressured to pay more than they otherwise would if better paid jobs didn’t exist in multinationals.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,563 ✭✭✭stateofflux


    Bob24 wrote: »
    When there is a skill overlap, multinational salaries cannot possibly be completely disconnected from the rest of the job market.

    For exemple even though they work for an Irish organisation, a software developer working for Dublin Bus or an accountant working for Eir do benefit from multinationals drying up the job market and paying better salaries. Their employers won’t match Google levels but they are pressured to pay more than they otherwise would if better paid jobs didn’t exist in multinationals.

    Id nearly guarantee you there will be no salary cuts in the public service in the next 5 years unless something worst case scenario happens.

    Current private sector salaries have to go up also they are way under where they should be. There is a salary gap between Multinational and national wages which will close also...unless something major happens


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,505 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    Id nearly guarantee you there will be no salary cuts in the public service in the next 5 years unless something worst case scenario happens.

    Current private sector salaries have to go up also they are way under where they should be. There is a salary gap between Multinational and national wages which will close also...unless something major happens

    Public sector wages are always the last hard choice made by government all political parties vigorously Court the public sector vote and the media are overtly pro public sector, unions are never off rte


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    Id nearly guarantee you there will be no salary cuts in the public service in the next 5 years unless something worst case scenario happens.

    Current private sector salaries have to go up also they are way under where they should be. There is a salary gap between Multinational and national wages which will close also...unless something major happens

    Public service is a separate beast and isn’t the majority of “the rest of the country” as opposed to multinationals. But for specific skills even public service salaries are influenced be multinationals (being in IT myself and having interviewed with a public organisation, they seem to be having a very hard time to hire without pushing up salary scales significantly in certain professions). Even leaving salary cuts asside, if that job market pressure didn’t exist they would hire with lower wages which would in turn lower their average wages for those professions thanks to cheaper new hires (again I am talking about qualified professionals only).

    An in terms of private sector, I don’t think salaries “have to go up” no matter what. Employers are no charities and simply react to market conditions so if pressure was to ease-up on the job market for certain professions such as the ones I mentioned, why would they increase wages no matter what?


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,278 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Bob24 wrote: »
    When there is a skill overlap, multinational salaries cannot possibly be completely disconnected from the rest of the job market.

    For exemple even though they work for an Irish organisation, a software developer working for Dublin Bus or an accountant working for Eir do benefit from multinationals drying up the job market and paying better salaries. Their employers won’t match Google levels but they are pressured to pay more than they otherwise would if better paid jobs didn’t exist in multinationals.

    Not necessarily. Up to around 2006 there was a specific public sector allowance paid to IT post holders- even today it hasn't been restored. E.g. in the civil service there were admin EOs and EO ICT or Junior Systems Analysts. The EO JSA got the EO salary- plus an allowance worth about 8% of the gross salary- for holding an ICT post (note- they had to be appropriately qualified etc- its not that anyone could walk into such a post).

    Allowances or special pay rates for ICT, HR, Accountancy and other functions- were never brought back in the public sector (which is why they are finding it impossible to recruit into these roles- they simply can't compete).


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,563 ✭✭✭stateofflux


    Bob24 wrote: »
    Public service is a separate beast and isn’t the majority of “the rest of the country” as opposed to multinationals. But for specific skills even public service salaries are influenced be multinationals (being in IT myself and having interviewed with a public organisation, they seem to be having a very hard time to hire without pushing up salary scales significantly in certain professions). Even leaving salary cuts asside, if that job market pressure didn’t exist they would hire with lower wages which would in turn lower their average wages for those professions thanks to cheaper new hires (again I am talking about qualified professionals only).

    An in terms of private sector, I don’t think salaries “have to go up” no matter what. Employers are no charities and simply react to market conditions so if pressure was to ease-up on the job market for certain professions such as the ones I mentioned, why would they increase wages no matter what?

    A separate beast to a point but linked in the bigger scheme. Salaries have stayed the same for the last few years but cost of living / inflation has increased.. growing economies need salaries that are relatively proportional to cost of living otherwise you have problems.

    the salary issue is contributing to the housing problem also.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 172 ✭✭devlinio


    My parents are selling their rental property this year. Looking at ~40% capital gain if prices remain stagnant. I hope prices increase over the next year (for them, I feel sorry for others, but I want my parents to be secure).


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 173 ✭✭beaz2018


    devlinio wrote: »
    My parents are selling their rental property this year. Looking at ~40% capital gain if prices remain stagnant. I hope prices increase over the next year (for them, I feel sorry for others, but I want my parents to be secure).

    That’s nice


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    devlinio wrote: »
    My parents are selling their rental property this year. Looking at ~40% capital gain if prices remain stagnant. I hope prices increase over the next year (for them, I feel sorry for others, but I want my parents to be secure).

    Hoping they get out before the prices fall. I think early last year was the peak.

    By the time they get to selling it prices may have tanked.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,070 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn


    smurgen wrote: »
    Google and fb etc may stay here but in a recession their bargaining power with employees will be alot higher and i can see wages earned being cut dramatically.

    They are both growing like gang busters. The stock market hit across the board is a correction to a generally overvalued market. Interest rates went up.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,331 ✭✭✭Arthur Daley


    A separate beast to a point but linked in the bigger scheme. Salaries have stayed the same for the last few years but cost of living / inflation has increased.. growing economies need salaries that are relatively proportional to cost of living otherwise you have problems.

    the salary issue is contributing to the housing problem also.

    Plan is that the threat of AI and robotics will keep salaries for a lot of jobs fairly depressed into the next ten years. Not every job, but for a lot they should not be automatically expecting pay rises into the 2020s.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,184 ✭✭✭riclad


    There was an article in the irish times about 9 days ago ,it say house prices in ireland will not increase by any significant amount in the next 10 years .I do not see how anyone could predict what happens in 10 years time ,no one predicted the american stock market falling in december .No one really knows how much brexit will effect the irish
    economy .It,ll probably increase the cost of sending goods to ireland
    the uk.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,171 ✭✭✭dor843088


    riclad wrote: »
    There was an article in the irish times about 9 days ago ,it say house prices in ireland will not increase by any significant amount in the next 10 years .I do not see how anyone could predict what happens in 10 years time ,no one predicted the american stock market falling in december .No one really knows how much brexit will effect the irish
    economy .It,ll probably increase the cost of sending goods to ireland
    the uk.

    It's pretty simple really. Wages will not grow significantly over the next ten years. We can be reasonably sure of that. Therefore housing prices will not rise significantly. I think it's a reasonable and probable assumption tbh. Of course if the lending rules are relaxed on mortgages then we're off to the races again. Won't happen though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    Not necessarily. Up to around 2006 there was a specific public sector allowance paid to IT post holders- even today it hasn't been restored. E.g. in the civil service there were admin EOs and EO ICT or Junior Systems Analysts. The EO JSA got the EO salary- plus an allowance worth about 8% of the gross salary- for holding an ICT post (note- they had to be appropriately qualified etc- its not that anyone could walk into such a post).

    Allowances or special pay rates for ICT, HR, Accountancy and other functions- were never brought back in the public sector (which is why they are finding it impossible to recruit into these roles- they simply can't compete).

    I had an interview with a public body and while I didn’t end up going there, their offer was not that bad. From what I can see besides the fact that their salary scales have started to move up accross the board due to market pressure, they also have ways to push up hiring salaries for specific roles by either advertising job with the same seniority level at higher grades in certain functions (like IT), or hiring at a very high salary within the grade (although I gather that wouldn’t be great in the long term as it means less pay rise opportunities). For exemple the role I interviewed for was for an individual contributor but with upper-mid management type of grade.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    dor843088 wrote: »
    It's pretty simple really. Wages will not grow significantly over the next ten years. We can be reasonably sure of that. Therefore housing prices will not rise significantly. I think it's a reasonable and probable assumption tbh. Of course if the lending rules are relaxed on mortgages then we're off to the races again. Won't happen though.

    Wouldn’t agree to say it is a reasonable and probable assumption to make. 10 years is a very long time and a lot of things can happen/change during that time.

    I would agree with the OP and to me it’s just too long a timeframe to make serious predictions on property prices. One could make forecasts based on a lot of assumptions of what would happen under specific scenarios, but I think it would be wrong to pick one of those scenarios and say this is the very likely one to happen for the next 10 years.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,171 ✭✭✭dor843088


    Bob24 wrote: »
    Wouldn’t agree to say it is a reasonable and probable assumption to make. 10 years is a very long time and a lot of things can happen/change during that time.

    I would agree with the OP and to me it’s just too long a timeframe to make serious predictions on property prices. Once could make forecasts based on a lot of assumptions of what would happen under specific scenarios, but I think it would be wrong to pick one of those scenarios and say this is the very likely one to happen for the next 10 years.


    Wages are stagnant taxes are rising and the cost of living is becoming disproportionate to earnings . This will not reverse in the next ten years. No crystal ball needed just common sense.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,502 ✭✭✭Topgear on Dave


    dor843088 wrote: »
    Wages are stagnant taxes are rising and the cost of living is becoming disproportionate to earnings . This will not reverse in the next ten years. No crystal ball needed just common sense.

    Wages are stagnant?

    Not what the CSO says.

    https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/business/cso-figures-show-rise-in-the-average-weekly-wage-865327.html


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,171 ✭✭✭dor843088



    If wages go up say 3.3% but taxes and the cost of living go up a multiple of that over time then it has the same if not worse effect. So a person on 40k took home an extra 600 quid. They're probable paying an extra 600 quid a month in rent alone.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    dor843088 wrote: »
    Wages are stagnant taxes are rising and the cost of living is becoming disproportionate to earnings . This will not reverse in the next ten years. No crystal ball needed just common sense.

    Wages are increasing. But in any case the point is ten years is a very long time and there is no doubt things which can influence property prices will happen during that timeframe which no one can think of today.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,171 ✭✭✭dor843088




  • Registered Users Posts: 4,502 ✭✭✭Topgear on Dave


    dor843088 wrote: »
    If wages go up say 3.3% but taxes and the cost of living go up a multiple of that over time then it has the same if not worse effect. So a person on 40k took home an extra 600 quid. They're probable paying an extra 600 quid a month in rent alone.

    None of this means that wages are stagnating. And a very very large proportion of the population are not renting and not paying rent.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,471 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Interesting interview on Bobbys late breakfast on newstalk Saturday 5th of January with a representative from the recruitment sector regarding career changes

    He said that 50% of people looking to change jobs stated that quality of life was the reason for seeking new job and they wanted to get out of Dublin to achieve this


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