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Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 18 November, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 18 to 24 Nov 2020 --

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values.
    -- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.
    -- Sunshine will average near normal (about 2 to 2.5 hours daily), and could do a bit better in some eastern counties as several days are looking no more than partly cloudy.

    As Novembers go, this one seems rather bland so far.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will start out with a few bursts of moderate rainfall moving across the country this morning and followed by brief clearing, and that will give way to partly cloudy to overcast skies with squally showers in bands feeding in from the Atlantic in gusty west to northwest winds expected to develop rapidly around mid-day and spread through most areas overnight. Winds currently southerly to southwesterly 50 to 70 km/hr will veer westerly at similar speeds, perhaps moderate slightly then pick up to westerly 60 to 100 km/hr, with higher gusts developing near Atlantic coasts (potential to 120 km/hr locally). Temperatures currently very mild in the east will fall off to values already present in western counties, 6 to 9 C, then stay relatively steady during the stronger winds later.

    TONIGHT will be windy with potential for severe gusts continuing near Galway Bay and other parts of the Atlantic coast, spreading more into Ulster as the night continues, and a few transient gusts may make their way through central counties and appear on the east coast later in the night, although they may be quite brief in duration. A few showers will accompany this windy regime and temperatures will stay fairly steady around 6 or 7 C.

    THURSDAY will see a considerable improvement in the winds shortly after sunrise with prospects for a relatively pleasant morning with sunny intervals, temperatures near 7 C. By afternoon cloud and increasing southwest winds will bring in some more light rain, with temperatures rising rather than falling during the overnight hours.

    FRIDAY will stay breezy to windy and mild with occasional rain, temperatures steady 11 to 14 C.

    SATURDAY will turn a bit cooler in moderate westerly winds, with some dry intervals and isolated patchy light rain or drizzle, temperatures steady in the range of 7 to 9 C.

    SUNDAY will start out rather cold under partly cloudy skies, morning lows 1 to 4 C, then the day will slowly warm back towards 10 C as another milder sector arrives, lasting through MONDAY with temperatures then steady around 10 to 12 C with occasional light rain.

    The OUTLOOK calls for somewhat cooler weather, the Atlantic still in control but the flow slowing down to allow more of a temporary cooling influence as high pressure ridges drift across from west to east, so temperatures in the last week of November are likely to be closer to normal values with perhaps a touch of frost in places on some occasions, also small amounts of rain. There is still a stormy signal near the end of the guidance but this has been postponed somewhat from earlier expectations. It seems likely to become more unsettled again as there are no strong signs of anything to replace the Atlantic dominated westerly flow.

    Iota downgraded to a tropical storm now well inland over Nicaragua and El Salvador, southern Honduras, all taking a beating from very heavy rainfalls and the still gusty winds. This one is not expected to have any further life once it dies out, unless perhaps it spawns a tropical storm in the Pacific as sometimes happens with these low-latitude Caribbean storms.

    My local weather turned milder with drizzle and temperatures up to around 6 C, rather messy but at least we dodged a heavier rainfall and now expecting to slide back into colder weather with a transitional mixture again, turning to all snow within a day or two. Communications are badly disrupted by some kind of clash in the back country between trees (possibly slides too) and infrastructure, most regional TV service and bank card service is down, luckily I have a different provider for my internet or I would not be on-line telling you about it. Seems like this must have been way back in the woods somewhere remote because it has not been repaired after half a day which is unusually slow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 19 November, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 Nov 2020 --

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values, closer to average by end of the interval though.
    -- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.
    -- Sunshine may manage to exceed normal amounts slightly (by 25 to 50 per cent).

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will become less windy and there will be a few breaks in the overcast, although patchy light rain or drizzle continues in a few parts of the west and north mainly. By late afternoon some light rain may arrive in Atlantic coastal counties with winds still rather moderate from the southwest. Highs 8 to 10 C.

    TONIGHT will become windy at times with 5-10 mm rain expected in most areas, temperatures steady 8 to 10 C.

    FRIDAY will be breezy to windy and milder with occasional rain or drizzle, highs 11-13 C, winds southwest 60 to 90 km/hr.

    SATURDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, somewhat cooler again with temperatures near 9 C until afternoon, falling slowly later in the day.

    SUNDAY will be mostly cloudy with occasional rain and moderate winds, highs near 8 C.

    MONDAY will be overcast and milder with rain, highs near 10 C.

    TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with showers, highs near 9 C.

    OUTLOOK for the rest of the week is for somewhat colder weather and generally fair, as high pressure enters the sequence, still controlled by the Atlantic but with a pause of about two days expected in the parade of frontal systems, this could lead to slight frosts mid-week and highs 6 to 8 C.

    Towards the weekend of 28th-29th most guidance is showing rather stormy weather conditions with deep low pressure arriving from the southwest, and starting off at rather cold temperatures, so a sleety mix on high ground would be possible although likely just a cold rain closer to sea level, with strong east winds developing if this early scenario maintains itself. Still time for this to change to something either colder or milder but the idea of the strong low pressure makes sense as we approach full moon at the end of the month.

    My local weather stayed rather mild most of the day, some light rain changed to wet snow and now it's just misty with freezing drizzle as temperatures slowly fall below zero here.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 20 November, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 20 to 26 Nov 2020 --

    -- Temperatures will average 0.5 to 1.5 deg above normal but the trend will be towards rather cold temperatures later in this weekly interval;
    -- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal, often rather dry in coming days.
    -- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be mild with occasional light rain or drizzle, moderate southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr, and temperatures steady around 11 or 12 C.

    TONIGHT will see further light rain or showers, moderate southwest winds, lows 6 to 8 C.

    SATURDAY will start out rather cloudy and mild, turning partly cloudy later in the day, only a few isolated showers and temperatures steady around 8 to 10 C, falling off a bit by late afternoon and evening. Not as windy as today, and followed by a colder night than we've seen recently, lows falling to about 2 C.

    SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with a few showers developing in the afternoon and evening, rather cool, lows near 2 C and highs near 8 C.

    MONDAY will be somewhat milder again, cloudy with light rain, moderate southwest winds, highs near 10 C.

    TUESDAY will be breezy to windy and turning colder, blustery showers likely, some turning wintry on higher terrain especially in the north and west, but remaining either rain or hail showers at lower elevations. Winds westerly to northwesterly 50 to 80 km/hr, highs near 7 C.

    WEDNESDAY will also be rather cold with scattered showers, a few hilltops could see sleet or snow accumulations, but not cold enough for that in most lower elevations. Lows near -1 C and highs near 7 C.

    THURSDAY will be somewhat milder again with light rain, highs 8 to 10 C.

    The OUTLOOK is very uncertain with all guidance showing different solutions after agreeing generally on the first five or six days, some want to bring in very unsettled and even stormy weather conditions by about the weekend of the 28th-29th, others are just prolonging the alternating spells of mild and cool in rather similar conditions to this coming week. I have a hunch the stormier scenario will win out but not convinced that any details I've seen so far are very accurate, most likely outcome given the pattern we seem locked into now would be an Atlantic southwest gale around Sunday 29th or Monday 30th, have to wait and see though.

    My local weather was very drab on Thursday with overcast skies and temperatures near 2 C, maintaining a rather crunchy snow pack of 15 cms locally but quite a bit less down in the nearby valleys. Quite rare for this season but there is no tropical activity to report and we're holding at 30 named storms. Betting there's one more due in December and that will be it for 2020.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 21 November, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 Nov 2020

    -- Temperatures will average near seasonal normal values.
    -- Rainfall will amount to 50% of normal or less in some places.
    -- Sunshine will be near average for late November (about 2h a day).

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will start out rather cloudy with scattered outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, in moderate west-southwest winds of 50 to 70 km/hr. There may be some brighter intervals by mid-day and afternoon although a few showers will persist in the northwest counties. Highs will be close to the current temperatures around 10 C with a gradual falling off this afternoon towards 5-7 C.

    TONIGHT will become partly cloudy and rather cold (by this month's standards anyway) with lows 1 to 3 C and scattered light frosts possible.

    SUNDAY will be cloudy with a few sunny intervals, with isolated showers becoming a steady drizzle or light rain near south coast by afternoon and evening. Rather chilly (again by this month's standards) with highs 6 to 8 C.

    MONDAY will be slightly milder again as winds become more southerly, with occasional light rain, highs 9 to 11 C.

    TUESDAY will be overcast and breezy to windy with showers, highs 8 to 10 C. It will begin to turn colder late in the day and some of the rain could turn to hail at low elevations and sleet on higher slopes. Nothing disruptive is expected though, mostly the wintry falls would be higher than almost all populated areas or main roads.

    WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY are looking more settled and rather cold as higher pressure develops over the region, highs both days 6 to 8 C and morning lows around -1 C, possibly a bit colder in a few spots. Each day could produce some isolated showers in parts of Connacht and Ulster mainly and these could drop a bit of mixed wintry precipitation on higher peaks.

    By FRIDAY some weak frontal systems are expected back in the picture but details are rather sketchy as the systems are rather weak. Temperatures are likely to be around 7 C.

    WEEKEND 28th-29th could produce some rain at times but again details are sketchy, would prefer to wait for more reliable guidance as this weakening trend for the model guidance at present might be a temporary change.

    My local weather on Friday was overcast with temperatures between zero and 2 C, and some wet snow fell at times, nothing accumulating or melting from our previous snow cover. Low energy weather systems are also the rule across North America and for this time of year, it's hard to find very much active weather anywhere, something which will likely change quite soon.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 22 November, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 Nov 2020

    -- Temperatures will average near seasonal normals (which at this point are around 10 C daytime maxima and 3 C overnight lows).
    -- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal, most of that is expected on Monday night into Tuesday.
    -- Sunshine will average about 25 per cent above normal, but that's only about 2.5 to 3 hours of the nine hours that the sun is above the horizon nowadays. (December is generally the cloudiest month of the year, November and January are close behind).


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly cloudy and generally dry, with a few isolated showers possible near Atlantic coasts and across parts of the inland north. Rather cool with highs 7 to 9 C.

    TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and rather chilly again with lows 1 to 4 C, some local frost is possible, but temperatures will tend to rise after midnight especially in western counties.

    MONDAY will become overcast after possibly a few brighter intervals in the morning (at least in Leinster and Ulster), then rain will arrive towards mid-afternoon in the south and west. Moderate southerly breezes will set in, and it will turn a few degrees milder, highs 10 or 11 C.

    MONDAY NIGHT into TUESDAY some rain is likely with moderate southwest winds, then partial clearing by mid-day Tuesday, temperatures steady 8 to 10 C, about 10 mm rainfalls expected. It will start to turn cooler Tuesday afternoon and will be quite cold Tuesday night. Any lingering showers could become wintry over higher ground.

    WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, and rather cold, with isolated showers, some wintry over higher ground. Lows near -1 C and highs near 7 C.

    THURSDAY will be cloudy with sunny intervals, after morning frosts, lows near -2 C and highs near 7 C.

    FRIDAY to SUNDAY at this point are looking a bit unsettled mainly for southern counties where rain could become persistent at times, but only small amounts further north with partly cloudy skies at times, as weak disturbances start to make a slow northward push in advance of more vigorous lows expected later in the following week. Temperatures during the last few days of November will be generally near average, 7 to 9 C and cloud cover will keep nights a bit milder than mid-week (2 to 5 C). Stronger winds and heavier rainfalls look likely by the first week to ten days of December.

    It's going to be cold enough at times to remind us that winter is setting in, but nothing too drastic appears on the charts for the foreseeable future anyway, wind and rain being fairly typical of early December anyway.

    My local weather on Saturday was cloudy and cold with temperatures near -1 C.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 23 November, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 23 to 29 Nov 2020

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values, with a colder turn starting late Tuesday. Given that today is likely to be above the seasonal average, this means the rest of the interval will average 3 deg below normal.
    -- Rainfalls will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal, most if not all of which will occur in the next day and a half.
    -- Sunshine will average near seasonal normals.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will become overcast with occasional rain, rather light at first, and moderate southerly winds by afternoon reaching 40-60 km/hr. Highs 10 to 12 C.

    TONIGHT will bring periods of rain that may amount to 15-30 mm although heavier in west-central counties than elsewhere. Lows 6 to 8 C.

    TUESDAY will bring variable amounts of cloud, with the initial rainfall ending from west to east during the morning, then scattered showers will develop, in moderate west to northwest breezes, 40 to 60 km/hr. It will turn colder in stages from northwest to southeast, temperatures starting out 7 to 9 C and falling off gradually in the afternoon.

    WEDNESDAY will start out quite cold with scattered frosts and risk of mixed wintry showers on hills in the west and north mainly. A lot of places will remain dry though, and the day will become partly cloudy, still rather cold inland, moderating close to the coasts. Lows -3 to +2 C and highs 6 to 10 C.

    THURSDAY will have a sharp frost in some areas, cloud may prevent it elsewhere, and a wide range of morning temperatures -4 to +2 C, probably coldest in the usual areas of the inland north and west. Some fog may develop and it may be slow to clear due to inversions and light winds, but conditions near the coast will become fairly pleasant if chilly, with highs ranging from 5 to 10 C depending on when the inversion breaks down. Isolated wintry showers are possible in Ulster.

    FRIDAY will bring increasing cloud and a slight moderating trend generally, lows -3 to +3 C with scattered morning frosts, then overcast by afternoon, some light rain brushing into coastal west and north, highs 7 to 10 C. There could still be a few places, this time more likely inland southeast, remaining colder due to trapped cold air in valleys.

    The WEEKEND is still somewhat uncertain in its evolution, weak disturbances may beef up gradually over the interval and spin around to the south of Ireland spreading some cloud and even sleety light rain in rather cool southeast winds, but there is some chance it would just remain dry if rather cloudy. Eventually these weaker patterns are likely to be replaced by a more active but rather cold Atlantic west to northwest pattern that could become borderline wintry at times as there won't be a lot of mild air mixing into these disturbances coming from the general direction of the higher latitude North Atlantic south of Iceland. Even so, confidence in any scenarios is rather limited given that some blocking tendencies are beginning to develop. High pressure could end up playing a bigger role.

    My local weather on Sunday was overcast although fairly bright with the sun dimly visible at times, and it was around the freezing point (rather rare for me, I stayed in all day). Milder weather is returning to eastern regions at least south of the Great Lakes where a minor disturbance is bringing a wintry mix across parts of the lower Great Lakes today. Further south, it's around 12-15 C and this gradient will persist for a few days with a stronger storm developing later in the week along the same path. I'm not expecting much active weather in my far western region though. This seems like one of the drier Novembers I can recall around here, usually it's raining or snowing almost every day at this time of year, but three quarters of the time it has been dry this month.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 24 November, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 24 to 30 Nov 2020

    -- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal values.
    -- Rainfall will be locally heavy today, after which the rest of the interval looks generally dry.
    -- Sunshine will be near normal values, some potential for higher amounts in coastal locations as inland areas could remain foggy or at least under low cloud despite high pressure dominating, a few spots could have much lower totals.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY ... A band of moderate rainfall will bring a further 15-25 mm to parts of west Munster and Connacht, as it slowly edges east, parts of Ulster will see 10-20 mm also. By mid-afternoon a weakening front will pick up speed and drop around 5-10 mm amounts in most of Leinster this afternoon into the early evening hours. Elsewhere, once the front has passed, temperatures will drop several degrees to around 5-7 C (currently near 10 C where the rain is heavy, and highs today 10-12 C east of the frontal zone). Winds relatively moderate at southwest 40 to 60 km/hr at times.

    TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy and turning quite cold, with isolated showers becoming wintry on some higher terrain in the west and north. Lows -1 to +3 C. Winds northwest 40 to 60 km/hr.

    WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, rather cold, highs 7 to 9 C.

    THURSDAY ... Morning fog or low cloud with scattered frost, all may be rather persistent in some inland valley areas due to light winds and a stable inversion layer, coasts should clear to partly cloudy skies fairly rapidly though, as a result, a wide range of temperatures may occur, lows -4 to +2 C and highs 4 to 10 C.

    FRIDAY ... Similar to the previous day, perhaps a bit more extensive fog and frost and a larger area failing to clear away to more moderate temperatures, but lows and highs in the same range, -4 to +2 C, then 4 to 10 C by mid-day. Very light winds in most areas. Some drizzle could be encountered in some western and northern coastal areas at times.

    SATURDAY ... Little change but with somewhat stronger southeast winds, the various fog and low cloud layers will probably merge into a general low overcast with some breaks (these more likely in coastal areas), lows -3 to +3 C and highs 5 to 9 C. Patchy light drizzle possible at times.

    SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, one or two showers possible in the north, not quite as cold, lows -2 to +3 C and highs around 8 C.

    OUTLOOK ... From Monday (30 Nov) to about Thursday (3 Dec), high pressure may re-assert control and there could be further frosts, fog and light winds with more moderate conditions around coastal districts. Highs will be in the range of 2 to 7 C. It currently looks as though the Atlantic will enjoy a week-long rest then slowly return to asserting control over the circulation with this high weakening gradually by 4th-5th December and then some Atlantic frontal systems managing to make it back through although reduced indications now of any stormy conditions, perhaps this may return to the forecasts however, as these blocking situations are difficult for the models to predict in detail beyond about a week or so.

    My local weather on Monday was overcast and chilly with highs around -2 C. The freeze-thaw cycle has been mostly on freeze so we have some icy sidewalks in places, doing the penguin walk when out and about. Snow cover has settled in at about 10-15 cms of largely frozen old snow from 2-3 weeks ago. There was a fresh coating this morning of perhaps 1 cm.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 25 November, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 25 Nov to 1 Dec 2020 --

    -- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal, coldest in valleys well inland, more moderate in coastal areas.
    -- Rainfall will average only about 10 per cent of normal.
    -- Sunshine will be quite variable dependent on fog either lifting or becoming persistent, so once again coastal areas may do better as cold air won't get trapped as easily, leading to clearing skies.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be relatively pleasant for this time of year, a few passing showers this morning in southwest Munster, and mixed wintry showers possible on hills in north Connacht and west Ulster later on, but sunny intervals likely for most areas, breezes dying down to quite moderate levels and highs 7 to 10 C.

    TONIGHT will bring some clear skies for a while before fog and low cloud begin to develop, some scattered outbreaks of frost likely, some locally sharp frosts in the usual cold spots, lows -4 to +2 C.

    THURSDAY will have quite variable sky conditions in nearly calm wind conditions, some areas will have persistent fog and low cloud, most likely where coldest overnight, and coastal districts are more likely to clear to partly cloudy or even sunny conditions, with resultant milder temperatures, so highs anywhere from 4 C to 9 or 10 C.

    FRIDAY will be similar with morning frosts and low cloud or fog patches, then variable cloud conditions later in the day, morning lows -4 to +2 C and highs 5 to 10 C.

    SATURDAY is looking somewhat breezy now with a weak disturbance trying to push into the high pressure and bringing moderate southeast winds into play, this will likely prevent much frost or fog and lead to widespread low cloud layers with patchy drizzle, temperatures between 3 and 7 C.

    SUNDAY the high will begin to edge back into dominance and that will likely lead to the low cloud layers breaking up to some local sunshine, temperatures between -2 C in some valleys in the morning to the range of 4-7 C by afternoon.

    MONDAY to about THURSDAY of the following week may see stubborn high pressure holding the Atlantic weather systems at bay but only the first half of that can be considered fairly reliable, the high may not survive that long as eventually the flow will become stronger from the west to northwest, and some rather chilly unsettled conditions with sleety forms of mixed precipitation seem possible towards weekend of 5-6 December. There are scenarios in which some snow could fall in that period, but far too early to get very specific about those prospects, it may be more likely to be the cold rain and hill sleet/snow mixture instead.

    My local weather was overcast with light snow all day, accumulating only to about 2 cms despite falling continuously, with temperatures steady around -1 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 26 November, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 26 Nov to 2 Dec 2020

    -- Temperatures will be 1 to 2 deg below normal values, with a slow moderating trend towards normal.
    -- Rainfall will be slight where it does occur at all.
    -- Sunshine will be near normal values although subject to variations dependent on fog persistence.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will start out cold and foggy in some places, partly cloudy to sunny in others (more likely near coasts or on higher terrain). Some of the fog will be persistent and may only lift slightly to low cloud layers by mid-day, and where this happens, it will remain quite cold with highs near 4 C. In places where fog is not a factor, highs 8 to 10 C are likely. Some icy patches will be developing shortly after sunrise and extreme caution is advised if you're driving in areas that are either frosty or foggy this morning.

    TONIGHT will start out clear in many areas, then once again could become foggy for a time, with scattered frosts. There will likely be large variations in temperature from one place to another in the light winds and scattered frost scenario, lows -4 to +3 C.

    FRIDAY will see more of the persistent fog and low cloud but in general there may be less prolonged versions of it as breezes begin to pick up slightly, then the rest of the day is likely to become partly to mostly cloudy with highs around 6 to 9 C.

    SATURDAY will be mostly cloudy with scattered outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, and moderate southeast winds, lows near 2 C and highs near 9 C.

    SUNDAY and MONDAY will see somewhat of a return to the drier and calmer conditions with a bit of scattered frost and fog, afternoon sunny breaks, lows -2 to +2 C and highs 7 to 9 C.

    TUESDAY to THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, with scattered outbreaks of light rain or drizzle approaching the south and west during the interval, and it could become rather breezy, temperatures around 5 to 8 C, with some risk of it turning a bit colder towards Thursday.

    The outlook is interesting if unreliable -- some models develop an intense storm system around 5-6 December, others take the same pattern and keep it mostly similar with east winds and low pressure developing to a lesser extent over the Biscay region. Some of these scenarios would be rather cold with mixed wintry precipitation a possibility. Others would feature strong winds and spells of rain, sleet and snow. However, none of them has reached much of a reliable status yet so they are just speculation at this point.

    My local weather on Wednesday had a bit of sunshine at times for a nice change, and occasional light flurries, with temperatures remaining in a similar range to recent days, -2 to zero C.

    Take care out there.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 27 November, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 27 Nov to 3 Dec 2020

    -- Temperatures will average 1 or 2 deg below normal, except near or slightly above average in parts of the north.
    -- Rainfall will be very slight and won't exceed 10 per cent at many locations.
    -- Sunshine will be near the rather stingy seasonal normal of 2 hours a day.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY sees another rather mixed but in places frosty or foggy start, caution required for driving in some areas with a combination of near-freezing temperatures and patchy dense fog. Other areas have escaped this or are under higher cloud layers in the west, preventing frost or fog formation. By mid-day most places will have reached highs near 9 or 10 C but a few pockets in the southeast could remain colder. Very light winds with a slight southerly breeze near the Atlantic coasts. Once any fog disperses, some sunny intervals, longer in eastern counties, and cloudy intervals.

    TONIGHT will be more overcast with lows 2 to 5 C, anywhere that does manage to stay clear for the evening may fog up at least for a while though.

    SATURDAY will be mainly cloudy with patchy drizzle, moderate east to southeast breezes, highs 8 to 10 C.

    SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and there could be a return to some morning fog or frost in a few spots, lows generally above freezing however, especially in the north which could be quite mild due to a weak westerly wind flow. Lows further south -2 to +4 C, and highs in all areas 8 to 11 C.

    MONDAY and TUESDAY will remain under the influence of high pressure, but it seems more likely to be that stagnant mild variety with a weak Atlantic warming influence, so expect highs 8 to 12 C and lows 3 to 6 C. Staying dry to at least Wednesday except for any patchy drizzle near Atlantic coasts.

    Later in the week, we still have some disparity in the model guidance but nothing like what confronted us yesterday, the intense storm that one model was indicating has been toned down to something of more moderate proportions, and a bit further east, while other models are moving in that same general direction and making changes also. The consensus now seems to be what we call "cold zonality" which is an Atlantic-driven northwest flow that is unsettled with passing frontal systems and the risk of some mixing of precipitation to include wintry varieties, especially on higher ground. So the end of next week looks rather chilly and sometimes wet with passing showers that might include hail, sleet or snow in some areas (not so much close to sea level however). Temperatures in this interval would likely be around 4 to 7 C.

    My local weather was overcast, a bit foggy, and cold with highs only around -3 C. Hoping the sky clears just once in the next week or two so I can get a good view of the ever-closer Jupiter-Saturn conjunction (low in the southwest after sunset is where to look for that, if you happen to get a clear evening where you live). The absolute closest they will get (and it's the closest they ever do come, apparently) will be on 21st December. Chances of clear skies around then are about 10-20 per cent unfortunately.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 28 November, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 28 Nov to 4 Dec 2020

    -- Temperatures will be fairly close to average values for this time of year, peaking a little above normal at times around Monday-Tuesday and then dipping somewhat below normal later in the interval.
    -- Rainfalls will begin to pick up after a dry start, or almost dry with patchy light rain possible today, and by near the end of the interval some places may reach 50% of their weekly average, although 25% might be more typical.
    -- Sunshine will do well to appear at all, given the amount of cloud in the forecasts, but a few places will manage to creep up to values close to normal even if most stay around half of that.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and there could be patchy drizzle or light rain in a few places later. Somewhat stronger breezes (southeast 30-50 km/hr) will begin to mix the air, and highs will reach about 7 to 10 C.

    TONIGHT will remain rather cloudy, with perhaps a bit of clearing towards dawn, if so there could be fog formation in some valleys. Lows 3 to 7 C.

    SUNDAY will be cloudy with a few sunny breaks, and highs will be once again 7 to 10 C.

    MONDAY will be rather cloudy with light winds again, but it should stay rather mild, lows 3 to 6 C and highs 8 to 11 C.

    TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with some light rain spreading gradually into western regions. Lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

    The OUTLOOK is uncertain to be frank, with guidance all over the place about how, where and when the weak ridge of high pressure breaks down. Some guidance just shoves the ridge further north and allows a stronger easterly flow which would become somewhat colder although by no means wintry. Other guidance collapses the ridge quite fast and replaces it with cold, unsettled weather governed by low pressure tracking east across Scotland. Another idea I saw in my preparation was a sort of blend that led to a wintry mixture of precipitation. So at this point, I think the best forecast to make is that chances are fairly high for cold rain or sleety mixtures late in the week, but it isn't entirely nailed down yet. The most likely temperature range would be 3 to 7 C.

    My local weather on Friday was overcast with temperatures close to zero Celsius, could use some sort of break in a warm sunny location but there are very few of those within 50 kms of here (that's our version of the 5 km rule, it's a big open country so about the same concept I guess).


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 29 November, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 29 November to 5 December 2020 --

    -- Temperatures will average near normal values, somewhat above at first, trending towards 1-2 deg below average later in the week.
    -- Rainfall will be slight for the first half of the week but will gradually pick up with wintry mixtures providing some of the moisture, to reach near average amounts for a week at this time of year.
    -- Sunshine will be limited, but could manage to approach average amounts of only 2 hours a day.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be mainly cloudy with lingering fog and mist especially inland over valleys, but a few places could get some brighter intervals. Highs 8 to 12 C.

    TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy and misty, rather mild, lows 4 to 8 C.

    MONDAY and TUESDAY will continue rather featureless with cloud and mist prevailing, some patchy outbreaks of light rain edging further south and east, and highs both days 8 to 11 C, the overnight low for Tuesday morning also around 4 to 8 C.

    By WEDNESDAY a rather complex Atlantic disturbance will be drifting into a more dominant role and spreading rain and moderate winds into the region. Details are not really confirmed by any means, the low seems likely to drift through the regions south and east of Ireland but eventually a cluster of weak and disorganized systems will begin to circulate around throughout Britain and Ireland, and the results will be variable amounts of cloud, scattered precipitation that might sometimes include wintry mixtures especially on hills, and temperatures a bit lower than most of this recent month, close to 5 C. There are ways that this could turn into a significant snowfall and I am watching that carefully, as are many others, but the spread in the guidance is too large to have much confidence in any particular details yet, the general concept of cool and unsettled will have to do us for now. Since that portion of the outlook is uncertain, anything beyond about a week to ten days is looking really speculative, as it would be fairly easy for several different patterns to emerge. It could go back to westerly flow and Atlantic-driven disturbances, or it could return to this blocking pattern only with a colder theme, or it might just stay chaotic and unsettled with no strong trends.

    My local weather turned sunny which was nice, and we had a good view of the planetary conjunction this recent evening, in very cold but clear conditions, temperature at mid-day near -2 C and dropping well below that since sunset, probably on the way down to about -10 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 30 November, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 30 Nov to 6 Dec 2020

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg below normal, and starting out a little milder than average, this implies quite cold weather past about Wednesday (3 to 5 deg below later in the interval).
    -- Rainfall (including liquid equivalent of wintry types of precip) will average near normal values to 25% above.
    -- Sunshine will average about normal, the usual meagre amount for early December.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be mostly cloudy and relatively mild with light winds, some mist in a few places, highs 10 to 13 C.

    TONIGHT could see some local clearing allowing fog and frost patches but many places are likely to stay partly cloudy to overcast. Lows in a few spots near -1 C but generally 4 to 8 C.

    TUESDAY will be overcast with occasional light rain, and a moderate southwest wind will begin during the day, with highs 9 to 12 C.

    WEDNESDAY will have morning rain or showers, clearing skies for a time, then locally blustery showers in colder air arriving in stages, winds west to northwest 40 to 70 km/hr. Morning lows 3 to 6 C, mid-day temperatures about 7 then falling to 2-4 C later.

    THURSDAY will be breezy to windy and quite cold, with mixed wintry showers developing in bands, in moderate to strong northerly winds. Some details on areas to receive bands of wintry showers will be clearer by mid-week as much depends on exact wind direction, and that depends on the exact track of a strong low that will form south of Ireland and move to eastern England. It could be that a lot of the east coast activity will remain offshore but some parallel bands could move across land. Western counties are more likely to see heavy bands from the Atlantic. Temperatures will be only about 2 to 5 C and it will be snowing or sleeting at times on higher ground, rain and hail mixtures more likely near sea level. Winds northerly 50 to 80 km/hr and possibly higher gusts developing.

    FRIDAY and SATURDAY will continue in this same theme as the low now appears likely to move slowly around in a loop back towards Wales and southwest England. During this time, winds in eastern Ireland will become strong and gusty and may back around to the northeast allowing development of Irish Sea streamers of mixed wintry showers. Temperatures appear marginal for heavy settling snow on lower ground, but acceptable for accumulations on the hills of Dublin and Wicklow counties. Again, more precision will be possible in these forecasts closer to the time. Temperatures will continue steady in the range of 2 to 5 C for most areas, could briefly fall below freezing at night in western inland districts.

    SUNDAY is likely to be a day of some improvement as the storm moves away but it will stay cold and any isolated showers would likely be rather wintry and mixed. Lows near -2 C and highs near 6 C.

    Around Monday and Tuesday, a partial reset of the current situation will not draw in much mild air and the result will be a risk of wintry mixtures of sleet, snow and freezing rain, if the maps currently on offer were to work out. We'll leave this as a challenge to be solved later though, as by then small differences in the evolution of the storm in coming days could make that longer range situation considerably different.

    Once again I'll underline the fact that only small changes in some of the guidance could tilt the balance more towards snow, at this point the temperature profiles look just that little bit too warm for widespread lowland snow, so at this point will say, not quite like 2010, but more like it than most recent early December periods since then.

    My local weather on Sunday was mostly cloudy and just a touch milder at 2 deg C. This did not result in much if any thaw or melt though, and we're in a deep wintry spell already here.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 30 November, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 30 Nov to 6 Dec 2020

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg below normal, and starting out a little milder than average, this implies quite cold weather past about Wednesday (3 to 5 deg below later in the interval).
    -- Rainfall (including liquid equivalent of wintry types of precip) will average near normal values to 25% above.
    -- Sunshine will average about normal, the usual meagre amount for early December.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be mostly cloudy and relatively mild with light winds, some mist in a few places, highs 10 to 13 C.

    TONIGHT could see some local clearing allowing fog and frost patches but many places are likely to stay partly cloudy to overcast. Lows in a few spots near -1 C but generally 4 to 8 C.

    TUESDAY will be overcast with occasional light rain, and a moderate southwest wind will begin during the day, with highs 9 to 12 C.

    WEDNESDAY will have morning rain or showers, clearing skies for a time, then locally blustery showers in colder air arriving in stages, winds west to northwest 40 to 70 km/hr. Morning lows 3 to 6 C, mid-day temperatures about 7 then falling to 2-4 C later.

    THURSDAY will be breezy to windy and quite cold, with mixed wintry showers developing in bands, in moderate to strong northerly winds. Some details on areas to receive bands of wintry showers will be clearer by mid-week as much depends on exact wind direction, and that depends on the exact track of a strong low that will form south of Ireland and move to eastern England. It could be that a lot of the east coast activity will remain offshore but some parallel bands could move across land. Western counties are more likely to see heavy bands from the Atlantic. Temperatures will be only about 2 to 5 C and it will be snowing or sleeting at times on higher ground, rain and hail mixtures more likely near sea level. Winds northerly 50 to 80 km/hr and possibly higher gusts developing.

    FRIDAY and SATURDAY will continue in this same theme as the low now appears likely to move slowly around in a loop back towards Wales and southwest England. During this time, winds in eastern Ireland will become strong and gusty and may back around to the northeast allowing development of Irish Sea streamers of mixed wintry showers. Temperatures appear marginal for heavy settling snow on lower ground, but acceptable for accumulations on the hills of Dublin and Wicklow counties. Again, more precision will be possible in these forecasts closer to the time. Temperatures will continue steady in the range of 2 to 5 C for most areas, could briefly fall below freezing at night in western inland districts.

    SUNDAY is likely to be a day of some improvement as the storm moves away but it will stay cold and any isolated showers would likely be rather wintry and mixed. Lows near -2 C and highs near 6 C.

    Around Monday and Tuesday, a partial reset of the current situation will not draw in much mild air and the result will be a risk of wintry mixtures of sleet, snow and freezing rain, if the maps currently on offer were to work out. We'll leave this as a challenge to be solved later though, as by then small differences in the evolution of the storm in coming days could make that longer range situation considerably different.

    Once again I'll underline the fact that only small changes in some of the guidance could tilt the balance more towards snow, at this point the temperature profiles look just that little bit too warm for widespread lowland snow, so at this point will say, not quite like 2010, but more like it than most recent early December periods since then.

    My local weather on Sunday was mostly cloudy and just a touch milder at 2 deg C. This did not result in much if any thaw or melt though, and we're in a deep wintry spell already here.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 1st of December, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 1 to 7 Dec 2020

    -- Temperatures will average about 2 deg below normal despite today being a bit above average.
    -- Rainfall will eventually increase with mixed wintry precipitation on higher ground, and amounts will reach at least a normal weekly amount (which is around 25-35 mm) but in some places could go a bit higher.
    -- Sunshine will probably be in the mix often enough to produce the small amounts required for a normal early December total of about 2 hours a day.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be the last mild day for a while, and it won't be all that windy although the calm conditions of past days are coming to an end. Highs will reach about 10 to 12 C under mostly cloudy skies with a few brighter intervals. Patchy light rain will turn more persistent in western counties by afternoon and evening.

    TONIGHT intervals of rain will gradually work their way east bringing 5-10 mm to some places, and it will stay fairly mild with lows 3 to 6 C, with moderate westerly winds at times.

    WEDNESDAY will become partly cloudy and breezy around mid-day as rain ends then some blustery showers could develop as winds turn more northwesterly with temperatures stalling at about 7 or 8 C mid-day then falling slowly.

    THURSDAY will be a rather variable day from place to place as weak troughs and frontal systems begin to merge into a more powerful storm to the south, but this process will take a while and as one region gets into showery rain or sleet showers, another could have sunny breaks. Lows near 1 C and highs near 6 C.

    FRIDAY and SATURDAY will be unsettled and possibly stormy in some areas, as a strong low forms over Britain and edges closer to Ireland before dropping down to the south when it approaches the Irish Sea. This will promote strong northerly winds and bands of sleety showers, perhaps turning to heavy snow on hills. Temperatures will be around 2 to 5 C at night, 5 to 8 C in the mid-day hours, and this will keep the precipitation types variable as at times it will be cold enough at low elevations for mixing, at other times only on higher slopes will there be anything wintry. Winds of 50 to 80 km/hr and possibly higher gusts will continue most of these two days. Some localized areas could get much heavier bands of sea-effect precipitation than most other places, we'll try to analyze this potential closer to the time when the local distribution becomes more relevant.

    By SUNDAY the first disturbance may be winding down over northern France although it could still be a powerful storm for parts of southern Britain and the Channel into northern France, so for Ireland there could be a bit of a break in both the winds and the coverage of the precipitation which will reduce to isolated wintry showers. It will stay quite cold with lows near -1 C and highs near 6 C.

    Then by MONDAY into TUESDAY it looks like a second storm system may form to the west of Ireland and move southeast to bring strong east winds and another cold rain turning to sleet and snow on higher ground. Once again temperatures are very marginal for lowland accumulating snowfalls, would expect those on slopes above 300 metres elevation almost for certain, with reduced chances closer to sea level. However, this situation is a week away and could change in either direction, either a milder rainfall event or a colder more wintry outcome, so it will be a focus for all forecasters in the coming days. Temperatures would most likely be around 4 to 6 C and a bit lower on hills, a bit higher in some coastal areas because the ocean right now is still warmer than 10 degrees so that strong winds coming in from the sea, unless the air had a really cold start somewhere, will naturally start to resemble the sea surface temperatures. The air at a few hundred metres up into the atmosphere will be near freezing so any showers that form in these marine flows will be very unstable, prone to discharges of lightning and hail, as they easily work their way up above the freezing levels.

    Beyond the end stages of this second storm system, the weather looks likely to settle into a rather cold and stable pattern but the origin of the air masses is not really that far north and so it's what some might call "home grown cold" rather than severe cold advected into the region from the subarctic (as we got back in 2010 and briefly at the end of Feb 2018). Even March 2013, which has the reputation of being a bit of a marginal outcome for many in terms of snowfall, was probably structurally colder than what we're currently being shown on forecast charts.

    We had some snow here on Monday, about 5 cm, from a weak upper-level low that is already a long way off to our southeast as skies slowly clear out, and that should be the last snow we see for about a week here, as temperatures stay just around freezing. The eastern U.S. had strong southeast winds ahead of a low tracking north into Quebec, and some locally heavy rainfalls of 30-60 mm. It was quite mild for the end of November, reaching 15-18 C in most places like New York City and Washington D.C. Somewhat colder air is on the way for them, but the outlook for the month is relatively mild with large variations.

    For Ireland, I'm thinking that this northerly influence and a blocking tendency may fade away for a time later in the month, and by the end of the month the overall averages and totals will be fairly close to long term normal values, if perhaps a bit on the cool and wet side. If we can get another spell like this in mid to late February or early March when the ocean is colder, and/or get a higher grade of arctic air involved, then there could be some real winter weather this season. So for winter weather enthusiasts, it's a glass half full I suppose.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 2 December, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS same as last two reports, main features are falling temperatures and frequent cold rain, sleety showers and even some snow on hills at times, with the odd brighter interval in the mix.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will become increasingly colder as a large area of cold air begins to arrive from the northwest. By mid-day and afternoon, Connacht and Ulster will be well into this air mass and mixed wintry showers will begin to spread inland and drop mixtures of precipitation with the general theme being rain/hail near sea level and snow/sleet risks on higher slopes. To some extent this will also begin to develop over Leinster and Munster although the process will be more gradual and there may be more frequent partly cloudy interludes today. Winds rather brisk at times west to northwest 40 to 70 km/hr adding chill to daytime readings of 5 to 8 C (dropping into the 2 to 4 C range over higher parts of the north and west).

    TONIGHT will see further mixed wintry showers and some accumulations of snow on hills. Lows -2 to +3 C. Moderate northwest winds quite strong and gusty around Donegal Bay and surrounding counties. Not as windy further south and east although sometimes a significant wind chill effect making it feel colder than those midnight temperatures.

    THURSDAY will have a mixture of clouds and bright spells although skies are not likely to clear more than partly at any point, with a few areas of stronger wintry shower development making a slow southward progression. Bands of wintry showers are likely to be forming by late in the day as winds increase from the north in response to deepening low pressure over Britain. Winds northerly 50 to 80 km/hr by the overnight hours. Very cold generally, daytime highs only about 3 to 6 C.

    FRIDAY and SATURDAY will see the more direct impacts of the developing storm over Britain, which may spread some areas of rain or sleet (snow on hills) back to the west covering parts of eastern Ireland at times. Parallel bands may run across western counties from the near Atlantic. Winds northerly possibly backing to northeast at times, in the range of 60 to 90 km/hr. Some heavy snow accumulations are quite likely on hills especially those in Dublin and Wicklow counties, and also in Mayo and Donegal. Other high slopes may not receive quite as active shower bands although if they do, heavy snow will hit them also. Temperatures generally steady in the range of 4 to 7 C at low elevations and 1 to 4 C higher up. Some heavier rain bands could develop for the southeast.

    SUNDAY will become partly cloudy and less windy, with isolated wintry showers, lows near -1 C and highs near 6 C.

    MONDAY to WEDNESDAY still looking wet, cold and windy, details are not that similar on different models so the main point at this early stage is to be prepared for a second round of harsh late autumn early winter type weather, not quite a worst case scenario for snow but with some higher areas at risk of heavy accumulations. An interval of rather dry and cool weather can be expected at some point after this second wave comes and goes, then some of the very long range maps show a massing up of arctic air just to the north of Ireland by mid-month, we'll certainly be watching that with interest, but actual outcomes at this point would range from nothing like that actually happening, to full-on wintry blasts. We'll have to wait and see, I was expecting this winter to get progressively colder but it seems to want to get off to an early start, whether it actually does so or not remains to be seen.

    My local weather on Monday here was sunny, hazy and somewhat milder, although with the reflection off the snow pack, it probably didn't break 4 C (on bare ground it could have easily reached 10 C). But now at midnight it is clear and quite cold, with a very high full moon, and no sign yet of the predicted aurora borealis. A large coronal mass ejection (CME) event happened on the Sun the other day, luckily for earth it was pointed straight left and even a bit behind the Sun and it originated from a region just behind the visible limb, where a large sunspot cluster is apparently rotating into our view (on the left side of the Sun as viewed at mid-day). There are predictions of a couple of nights of vivid northern lights and some minor disruptions to radio communications.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 3 December, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 3 to 9 Dec 2020

    -- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal, wind chills will sometimes make it feel colder than that too.
    -- Rainfall (including liquid equivalent of some wintry precip mostly on high ground) will be near normal in many areas but 25 to 50 per cent above normal in some higher parts of the south, and in west Ulster.
    -- Sunshine will be rather limited but some places will approach normal amounts, while others will be cloudy most of the time.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be mostly cloudy, rather windy near Atlantic coasts at times, less windy elsewhere, and cold with widespread showers some of which will turn wintry especially on higher ground. Lower elevations are more likely to get rain or hail in their showers, higher slopes could get more mixing with sleet and snow. Winds west to northwest at about 40 to 70 km/hr in some exposed areas, adding a wind chill, temperatures only rising slightly from current levels to reach 4 to 7 C, feeling like -1 to +3 C. About 5 mm of rain on average, which could include 2-3 cm snow in the mix on higher ground.

    TONIGHT will see some continuation of the wintry showers although further inland it may become partly cloudy and frosty with icy stretches of roads possible especially towards morning. Lows -2 to +3 C. Some further wintry showers in west and north with winds northwest to north 40 to 70 km/hr.

    FRIDAY will become windy and stay quite cold, with rain arriving in eastern counties from a storm in Britain pushing west through Wales during the afternoon. This rain may push in around mid-day or early afternoon in Leinster and become persistent to Saturday mid-day with strong northerly winds. The rain will mix with sleet and snow on higher terrain especially in Wicklow and south Dublin, less so further west on higher terrain because most of the precipitation will cut off about 100 km inland, but some parallel bands may develop across western counties from the North Atlantic too. Winds northerly 60 to 90 km/hr with temperatures steady 4 to 6 C at lower elevations, 2 to 4 C higher slopes. Rainfalls of 20-30 mm possible, snowfalls of 10-30 cm on high ground. This precipitation as well as any that might occur before Friday might spark some thunder and lightning too.

    SATURDAY will see this cold rain and highland snow mix gradually ending with some clearing from the northwest into at least central counties, still rather windy (north to northeast 40 to 60 km/hr, backing to northwest later), and temperatures steady in the range of 3 to 6 C. Skies will begin to clear gradually in all areas by evening.

    SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and rather cold with isolated wintry showers, lows near -2 C and highs near 6 C.

    From MONDAY to late TUESDAY or even later in the week, more unsettled, cold and wet weather is likely, although guidance varies on how quickly it pushes into all areas of the east and north, certainly the southwest will get the heavier rain and mountain sleet/snow mixtures in this second wave, with raw and cold southeast winds of about 50 to 80 km/hr for most regions, temperatures in the range of 4 to 7 C and 20-40 mm rainfalls (10-30 cm mountain snows possible in a few areas).

    This pattern could remain in place for some time, or break to something more typical of mid-December in recent years, milder with frequent Atlantic frontal systems and temperatures returning to around 8 to 10 C. Prospects for any severe wintry weather later have faded somewhat as the cold air is now shown having to take a long and circuitous route around low pressure near Iceland to get into western Europe, but at times it may turn rather cold again later in December.

    My local weather on Tuesday had some persistent low cloud and fog with patches of blue sky that eventually broke to mostly sunny but hazy conditions, rather mild with highs reaching about 5 C. Currently rather foggy outside and just below the freezing point, moon and planets/stars dimly visible through thin cloud layers.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 4 December, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 Dec 2020

    -- Temperatures will average 2 deg below normal, with a rising trend late in the interval.
    -- Rainfall will average near normal values to 25 per cent above normal.
    -- Sunshine may be quite limited in some places but could be generous in others, notably some central counties between two bands of the complex storm system over the next few days.
    -- Frequent strong winds will be a notable feature also.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY the western coastal counties can expect frequent blustery showers, some mixing with sleet and snow on higher terrain, and some turning to hail lower down, with isolated thunder. Winds northerly 50-80 km/hr and temperatures in the range of 3 to 6 C there. Central counties from north to south may be in a dry slot part of the day with sunny intervals following the slow lifting of frosty conditions this morning, highs near 4 C and moderate northerly winds, some showers encroaching from west at times. The east coast can expect a dry start, increasing cloud from the east, a rising north to northwest wind reaching 50-80 km/hr by afternoon, and rain becoming persistent late afternoon and evening. Highs 5 to 8 C as the surface layers are warmed by air crossing the Irish Sea.

    TONIGHT stormy conditions will set in over eastern counties and higher elevations could see heavy wet snow or sleet, with a driving cold rain lower down, winds north to northeast 50 to 80 km/hr, and potential for 20-30 mm of rain in some areas, or 10-20 cm snowfalls on highest parts of the mountains. These conditions will extend well back into the central counties after midnight too while the west coast shower band merges with this storm, so any dry slots will fill in gradually. Temperatures steady 2 to 5 C for most, -1 to +2 C on high ground. Very strong winds could occur in some exposed coastal locations with gusts to 110 km/hr.

    SATURDAY all of the above will begin to moderate gradually in the morning, and the storm will rather quickly depart around mid-day leaving moderate north to northeast winds dropping back to 40-70 km/hr, and bands of sea effect showers that may contain a mixture of rain, hail, sleet and snow. Some sunny intervals by afternoon for some areas. Highs near 6 C.

    SUNDAY there will be some early morning clearing and frost in some areas, fog and over any lingering highland snow some freezing fog possible, then sunshine at times later, with isolated wintry showers, much less windy in general, and highs 2 to 6 C.

    MONDAY another disturbance will approach from the west, spreading rain or sleet for a time into Munster, south Connacht and the midlands, parts of south Leinster. Some parts of the north will escape that but will have localized wintry showers of local origin. Other areas well to the north and east may remain partly cloudy to overcast but dry. It will remain rather cold, with temperatures slowly rising to about 7 C in the south, 4 C in the north, after a rather frosty start. Some potential for 10-20 mm rainfalls in parts of coastal west Munster and snow on higher hills in Cork and Kerry, spreading to Waterford and Carlow-Kilkenny-Wicklow higher terrain, possibly not reaching further north, as a low tracks east towards southern England overnight.

    TUESDAY could see these conditions lingering for a while before gradual partial clearing to a mostly cloudy sky with only isolated mixed wintry showers, staying quite cold, lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

    The OUTLOOK calls for this cold spell to end mid-week with a gradual return to milder Atlantic flow, southwest winds, and occasional rain, temperatures rising back to the 8 to 11 C range. That might persist almost to Christmas but I have a hunch there will be much colder weather at some point around the holiday period.

    My local weather was clear all day except for drifting fog banks which were more evident down below our elevation so we were actually looking down on clouds in the local valleys which were apparently socked in while we enjoyed the bright sunshine up here, and temperatures varied from -4 C down in the fog to +4 up on the ski slopes, with the town about midway between those. For a time we had quite noticeable fog condensation of frozen particles drifting on a breeze from a nearby fog bank, something I haven't seen for quite a while. This is the sort of weather where you can get those strange light pillars at night too, would need to go for a walk to see any and it's a bit late for that now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 5 December, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 5 to 11 Dec 2020

    -- Temperatures will average about 1 deg below normal with a generally upward trend.
    -- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal with slight risk of mixing for some areas Monday.
    -- Sunshine will average near normal values to 25 per cent above normal (but it will be cloudy a lot of the time even so).


    FORECASTS

    TODAY the strong northerly winds will slowly ease and may turn more northeasterly for a time, allowing streamers forming over the Irish Sea to hit land at least south of Dublin with mixed wintry showers possible from them. Another slowly decaying band of showers will remain north-south through central counties and weaken after mid-day to isolated showers. There will be an ongoing risk of sleet or snow falling on high ground but most of this mixture at lower elevations will be either sleety rain or hail showers. Winds northerly 50 to 80 km/hr, some higher gusts, moderating to 30-50 km/hr by afternoon. Highs 7 to 9 C but feeling quite cold in the winds.

    TONIGHT will bring some clearing with only a few isolated and weak wintry showers left over, mainly near the Ulster-Connacht border region and southwestern counties. There will be scattered frosts in much lighter winds, and patchy fog, lows -3 to +3 C.

    SUNDAY will have variable amounts of cloud with some sunny breaks, and only a few isolated wintry showers, rather cold with highs 4 to 7 C.

    MONDAY will feature increasing high and mid-level cloudiness, daytime highs 7 to 9 C, then rain or sleet by evening in parts of Munster, south Connacht and the midlands. This will continue overnight with 5-10 mm potential and some wet snow possible mainly on hills. Other regions may stay dry and somewhat frosty with partly cloudy to overcast skies, lows -1 to +4 C.

    TUESDAY will see this weak system pulling back into the ocean south of Munster and departing to die out over the southern half of England while skies become partly cloudy again in Ireland, with generally light winds, highs near 8 C, and isolated showers. Patchy light rain will return from the east by Tuesday night into early Wednesday as that weak low tries to edge back to the west across Britain.

    WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with scattered outbreaks of light rain, lows near 3 C and highs near 9 or 10 C.

    THURSDAY and FRIDAY will see a return to Atlantic dominated frontal systems bringing milder air and some rain with moderate southwest winds, highs 9 to 12 C.

    There will be some drier weather by Saturday 12th then a second fairly weak Atlantic system for Sunday 13th into Monday 14th followed by a more active period with stronger Atlantic lows possible towards the 20th of the month.

    My local weather continues in quiet mode with freezing fog quite widespread in the region, some weak sunshine at mid-day through persistent fog and low cloud, and temperatures close to 2 C for a high, -5 C overnight. Rain is spreading into the east coast regions of the U.S. with potential for some heavy sleet or snow inland from Boston towards Worcester MA and into northern New England; this low will stay near eastern Canada but another one following behind on Monday will be the first of several to resume normal service across the Atlantic.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 6 December, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    The trends will be cold, rather dry, and around average for cloud cover.

    The approaching disturbance is taking more of a southerly track now (as compared with guidance for it yesterday) so it will not have a large effect on the weather in Ireland, some rain or sleet may reach a few coastal areas of west Munster.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will see some persistent freezing fog patches in some inland valleys and temperatures may be held down for much of the day in those areas, reaching highs of about 2 to 4 C. But where the fog dissipates, some sunshine in partly cloudy conditions will allow temperatures to reach 6 to 8 C. Light winds will not mix the air very much so it could be quite different from place to place depending on how that fog responds.

    TONIGHT will see some cloudy intervals in the south and west and there is still some threat of sleet on hills by morning there. Otherwise, another cold and foggy night is likely, with lows -4 to -1 C.

    MONDAY will bring a few wintry showers near south and west coast, over hills in particular, but large parts of the country may remain foggy with the fog most persistent in some parts of the midlands and inland north. Highs in a few locations may not be much higher than 2 degrees. Once again, where the fog does lift, partly cloudy skies and highs near 5 C.

    TUESDAY will be somewhat milder with less morning fog around, but some rain will back into Ulster from that weak low once it makes a circle tour of Britain during the overnight hours. This will bring in a weak northwest wind flow to most regions, and a few isolated showers, with morning lows -2 to +3 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

    WEDNESDAY some light rain will move into some western and southern counties, but it may not amount to much even there, and may not reach parts of the east or north which will remain cloudy but dry, with highs near 7 C.

    THURSDAY and FRIDAY will bring more of these weak Atlantic frontal systems but they will each have limited power to spread their rainfall very far inland, so several more days of this east-west divide between light rain in some parts of the west and mostly dry but overcast further east, temperatures in a similar range (4 to 7 C).

    The OUTLOOK calls for somewhat more vigorous frontal systems to begin arriving late in the weekend and early the following week, possible strong southwest winds, and highs 8 to 10 C, with a bit more rain than we see for the coming week. A dry spell may follow after mid-week (in about ten days' time) and while it's bound to be rather cold under high pressure, this air mass has no real arctic characteristics and will likely be close to average in terms of temperatures. We'll start to see charts relating to the Christmas weather outlook soon, and at this point it looks rather bland and slightly milder in southerly breezes.

    My local weather on Saturday was overcast with fog thinning gradually during most of the day, some snow grains or other odd items falling from the saturated air mass leaving a greasy film on top of the other long-term messy junk that lies on the ground here after days and days of this freezing fog. It's probably quite nice up in the alpine above the fog and possibly sunny on the higher slopes. Temperatures are stuck between 1 and 2 C most of the time.

    Take care if you have to drive in any fog there today or tomorrow, roads could be slippery in places.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 7 December, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 Dec 2020

    -- Temperatures will return to more normal values after today, so the average may be just around normal despite today being 3 to 6 deg below normal.
    -- Rainfall will resume in some areas but amounts will be relatively small, 25 to 50 per cent of normal generally.
    -- Sunshine will occur on a few days in some parts of the country, the total will be no more than average and possibly a bit below.


    FORECASTS


    TODAY ... Some areas will experience severe freezing fog conditions with limited visibility and icy conditions on some roads and pavements, caution advised, and where the fog is most persistent (inland Leinster, midlands) highs may not be much above the freezing point (1 to 3 C). Other areas won't remain in fog all day (if they start out with some) and will break to partly cloudy or hazy sunshine, with drifting areas of low cloud coming and going, highs there would likely reach 5 to 7 C. Some parts of the southwest have a bit of light rain with sleet or wet snow on hills this morning, that should clear away around late morning and skies will then become partly cloudy with highs on some southwest coasts reaching a pleasant 8 or 9 C. Some parts of Ulster have localized wintry showers and will reach about 4 C.

    TONIGHT ... Some areas will return to fog or see existing fog thickening again, but there will be a tendency for the coverage to reduce as cloud moves in overhead from the east. That may mean that the inland south and west midlands will have a greater risk of freezing fog tonight. Lows -2 to +3 C.

    TUESDAY ... Some light rain at times in Ulster, moderate northwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr, highs near 7 C. Some of these breezier conditions will spread south into other regions although the rain may stay to the north, and highs will also be around 6 or 7 C with northwest winds at times 40 to 60 km/hr. A few places in the inland south could remain misty or foggy longer into the mid-day period before partially clearing.

    WEDNESDAY ... A weak Atlantic frontal system will bring patchy light rain that may amount to 3-7 mm in some areas, moderate south to southwest winds and highs of about 8 C after morning lows near 2 C. There may be an interval of mixed rain and wet snow, or sleet, especially on northern hills, towards late afternoon and evening.

    THURSDAY and FRIDAY will see another Atlantic frontal system arriving and this one will be slightly stronger, could drop 5 to 10 mm rainfalls and bring more vigorous southwest winds at times (50 to 70 km/hr). Highs 8 to 10 C.

    SATURDAY will be partly cloudy, breezy with highs near 7 C.

    SUNDAY will be overcast, windy with occasional rain, highs near 10 C.

    Somewhat stronger Atlantic systems may continue to arrive next week, but then this modest surge of activity will die out again and high pressure may return with colder conditions and local fog. There are also hints or signs of this locally sourced high linking up with more distant high pressure to provide a path for wintry cold with an easterly flow towards the Christmas holiday period, not too sold on this yet but watching how it develops in more reliable time frames.

    My local weather was also foggy for the morning hours, then it cleared rather nicely for a time and we could see all the surrounding peaks with fog clouds rising up out of the lower elevations to our southeast. It became rather mild as the air mixed a little and reached 4 C. This is a view looking south during the afternoon, with a fog bank still hanging in over the south end of the town which is in a valley (the elevation here is 1050m asl, that valley is probably around 970m, and heads southeast to the nearby Columbia River at Trail, B.C. where the elevation is 400m. Out of view to the right are peaks reaching 2000m, that hill on the southern horizon is about 1200m at its summit. Beyond that is the 49th parallel and the border we are not allowed to cross these days. That's only about 7 kms due south or 12 kms by road. ... will try to post pictures we took today of the peaks, they are not available to me on this machine yet).


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 8 December, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 December

    -- Temperatures will average near normal values.
    -- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.
    -- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal also.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be somewhat breezy as low pressure swerves back towards western Scotland and draws in a moderate northwest breeze over most parts of Ireland. This will mix the air overhead and scour out the colder surface layers that got trapped for two days in the lighter winds experienced, so temperatures will be in the range of 4 to 8 C in most places, with outbreaks of light rain or drizzle mainly confined to Ulster and one or two weak bands across parts of south Connacht and west Munster. Winds northwest 40 to 60 km/hr at times.

    TONIGHT there could be a brief return to fog and frost in some parts as winds slacken briefly, lows will be in quite a large range from about -2 C in some inland valleys to 4-7 C around some coasts.

    WEDNESDAY the fog and frost will gradually dissipate, light rain will move in, becoming somewhat heavier by late in the day in parts of the south and west. Temperatures will slowly rise to near 10 C in the south and west, but will remain rather low in parts of the north and east, only starting to edge up above 3 C by evening, with a risk of sleet on higher terrain.

    THURSDAY another surge of milder air will push more assertively into all regions and temperatures will gradually rise from morning lows of 2 to 6 C, to near 11 or 12 C in the south and west, 7 or 8 C in the east and north, with occasional light rain and moderate south to southwest winds.

    FRIDAY will turn partly cloudy and a bit colder in some parts, with winds more westerly, lows near 3 C and highs near 7 C.

    SATURDAY will see increasing cloud in the first part of the day, then rain and moderate southwest winds, temperatures peaking around the overnight hours at 10 to 12 C.

    SUNDAY will be breezy and somewhat cooler by afternoon and evening with slowly falling temperatures in the 5 to 8 C range.

    The OUTLOOK for next week is for a continuation of these weak Atlantic frontal systems and temperatures generally a little above average at times, in the range of 6 to 10 C mostly. It will begin to turn more settled and somewhat colder towards the end of the week and as high pressure builds up, it could link to distant arctic high pressure being pushed north across Russia and Scandinavia to lie around the north coast of Russia by Christmas Eve or so. That sort of linkage can be the first step towards a genuine colder spell and if that is in the cards it would probably arrive some time towards the end of the month.

    My local weather on Monday was overcast with a high of about +1 C. We're expecting a bit of snow or sleet overnight and on Tuesday as a coastal storm moves in and dies out over the Rockies, bringing an end to a mild spell for the prairies where they've had a chinook blowing during our calm foggy spell. That milder air is going to reposition over the central U.S. and bring an extended warm spell of weather to the central and eastern U.S. which will enjoy temperatures in the 15-20 C range at times in the coming week, with the storm track pushed up to the north of the Great Lakes and across Quebec.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 9 December, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    -- Temperatures will average near normal values (maxima 8-10 C, minima 2-4 C).
    -- Rainfall will average about 100 to 125% of normal, about 30-45 mm in total, although higher amounts in some western counties.
    -- Sunshine will average only about 50% of normal, not much better than one hour a day at this point.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will become wet across most regions with 5-15 mm rainfalls, but the milder air will have some trouble pushing cool air away from north Leinster and most of Ulster, so highs there may remain 4 to 6 C, while temperatures rise to near 10 C further south. Moderate south to southwest winds and hill fog will also be prevalent.

    TONIGHT the rain will taper off to drizzle and mist, with any sleet in the north turning to light rain before ending. Lows 3 to 6 C.

    THURSDAY will be breezy and mild, with another more vigorous frontal system timed for about midnight heading into western counties with rain for the late afternoon and evening. This rain will sweep across the country Thursday night, amounting to about 10-15 mm. Highs on Thursday and overnight temperatures similar at about 10 to 12 C.

    FRIDAY will become partly cloudy, breezy and somewhat cooler with lows near 5 C, highs near 8 C and a few showers.

    SATURDAY will be frosty to start, then after some morning sunny intervals, increasing cloud and a rising southwest wind ahead of rather heavy rainfall later in the day. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 8 to 11 C. Winds by Saturday night around 50-80 km/hr.

    SUNDAY the rain will clear during the morning, leaving partly cloudy skies with isolated showers, highs near 9 C.

    MONDAY to WEDNESDAY of next week are looking somewhat colder with several disturbances that could start out as coastal rain but might turn to inland sleet or wet snow. Temperatures will be held down to 2 to 5 C inland, while remaining a bit milder on coasts especially south and west coasts (8 to 10 C locally there).

    This colder turn is due to a massing up of quite cold air over the central and eastern parts of Europe, intercepting the rather weak Atlantic systems a little further west as time goes on. This trend is supposed to reverse briefly around the days before Christmas, with perhaps quite a strong storm coming through during those days, followed by another colder spell around Christmas to New Years. How cold that might become is the big question that many will be addressing in coming days -- there is some potential for a really cold spell to develop but it's a long way off at this point and depends on a number of things all happening, however, the fact that it could happen is better than winter weather enthusiasts have come to expect from December.

    My local weather was overcast but generally dry and rather mild, although only limited thawing has taken place, highs reaching about 4 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 9 December, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 9 to 15 December 2020 --


    -- Temperatures will average near normal values (maxima 8-10 C, minima 2-4 C).
    -- Rainfall will average about 100 to 125% of normal, about 30-45 mm in total, although higher amounts in some western counties.
    -- Sunshine will average only about 50% of normal, not much better than one hour a day at this point.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will become wet across most regions with 5-15 mm rainfalls, but the milder air will have some trouble pushing cool air away from north Leinster and most of Ulster, so highs there may remain 4 to 6 C, while temperatures rise to near 10 C further south. Moderate south to southwest winds and hill fog will also be prevalent.

    TONIGHT the rain will taper off to drizzle and mist, with any sleet in the north turning to light rain before ending. Lows 3 to 6 C.

    THURSDAY will be breezy and mild, with another more vigorous frontal system timed for about midnight heading into western counties with rain for the late afternoon and evening. This rain will sweep across the country Thursday night, amounting to about 10-15 mm. Highs on Thursday and overnight temperatures similar at about 10 to 12 C.

    FRIDAY will become partly cloudy, breezy and somewhat cooler with lows near 5 C, highs near 8 C and a few showers.

    SATURDAY will be frosty to start, then after some morning sunny intervals, increasing cloud and a rising southwest wind ahead of rather heavy rainfall later in the day. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 8 to 11 C. Winds by Saturday night around 50-80 km/hr.

    SUNDAY the rain will clear during the morning, leaving partly cloudy skies with isolated showers, highs near 9 C.

    MONDAY to WEDNESDAY of next week are looking somewhat colder with several disturbances that could start out as coastal rain but might turn to inland sleet or wet snow. Temperatures will be held down to 2 to 5 C inland, while remaining a bit milder on coasts especially south and west coasts (8 to 10 C locally there).

    This colder turn is due to a massing up of quite cold air over the central and eastern parts of Europe, intercepting the rather weak Atlantic systems a little further west as time goes on. This trend is supposed to reverse briefly around the days before Christmas, with perhaps quite a strong storm coming through during those days, followed by another colder spell around Christmas to New Years. How cold that might become is the big question that many will be addressing in coming days -- there is some potential for a really cold spell to develop but it's a long way off at this point and depends on a number of things all happening, however, the fact that it could happen is better than winter weather enthusiasts have come to expect from December.

    My local weather was overcast but generally dry and rather mild, although only limited thawing has taken place, highs reaching about 4 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 10 December, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 10 to 16 Dec 2020

    -- Temperatures will average about 1 deg above normal values.
    -- Rainfall will average near normal, to 25 per cent above normal in parts of the west.
    -- Sunshine will average only about half of the normal amount.


    FORECASTS


    TODAY will be breezy and mild with a few brighter intervals developing around late morning to early afternoon, before rain begins to arrive in the southwest, spreading to most other regions by evening. Winds increasing to south-southwest 40 to 70 km/hr. Highs 9 to 12 C.

    TONIGHT the rain will be moderately heavy at times, 10 to 15 mm is likely. Winds will veer more westerly with a clearing trend. Lows will be around 6 C.

    FRIDAY will be cloudy with a few sunny breaks, and passing showers, breezy and not quite as mild with highs near 8 C.

    SATURDAY will likely have a slight frost to start the day, away from milder west and south coasts, and then with increasing cloud around mid-day, becoming rather windy with a spell of heavy rain to follow, lasting most of the overnight hours. Lows -2 to +3 C, and highs 9 to 12 C.

    SUNDAY the morning rain or showers will gradually end then the rest of the day will be cloudy with a few breaks and isolated showers, breezy with highs near 9 C.

    MONDAY will be partly cloudy with showers and highs near 8 C.

    TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will bring a slow cooling trend and just a chance of showers, highs in the range of 5 to 8 C.

    There could be some sleety mixtures in any weak systems that come along around mid-week to Friday 19th but some indications of a much stronger disturbance with strong winds and rain for the end of next week. Following that, another colder turn is likely to follow with temperatures around 5 to 8 C indicated for the Christmas Eve to St Stephens Day interval, possibly rather windy at times then also.

    Nothing very definite showing up on latest guidance related to really wintry conditions at the end of the forecast period, but at the same time it would be the sort of pattern that could see colder air getting involved.

    My local weather on Wednesday was overcast and foggy after some mixed slushy precipitation fell before sunrise, after that temperatures stayed quite mild around 5 or 6 C and our snow pack is gradually being reduced although not melting very much -- with somewhat colder weather returning icy conditions are likely to follow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 11 December, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 Dec 2020

    -- Temperatures will average about 1 to 2 deg above normal.
    -- Rainfall will average about 25 per cent above normal values.
    -- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be mostly cloudy with some afternoon sunny intervals, and a few passing showers with the risk of some heavier rain developing later this morning in parts of west Munster and Connacht, spreading east around mid-day. Moderate southwest to west winds 40 to 60 km/hr and highs 8 to 11 C.

    TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy with some clearing towards morning allowing temperatures to fall slightly to around 2 to 5 C, some chance of isolated frosts.

    SATURDAY will bring a mixture of cloud and brighter intervals, rain holding off until late afternoon in the west and evening to overnight further east, with the exception of a few isolated showers in the north during the day. Highs around 10 C by late afternoon and evening.

    SATURDAY NIGHT into SUNDAY MORNING about 10-15 mm rain will cross the country during the midnight to 0600h period, with moderately strong south to southwest winds 50-80 km/hr, and temperatures steady 10-12 C.

    SUNDAY will become partly cloudy later in the morning as the rain eases off and the rest of the day will be fairly dry except for isolated showers in a moderate westerly flow. Highs 10-12 C.

    MONDAY will be partly cloudy and a bit cooler with passing showers, highs 8 to 10 C.

    TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few outbreaks of light rain, highs 7 to 9 C.

    WEDNESDAY may turn out rather stormy with most guidance suggesting a strong Atlantic low arriving from the southwest and cutting through Munster and the midlands, so that eastern counties would get into quite strong southeast to south winds with western counties in more of a northeast backing to northwest scenario, in all cases potential for strong gusts to 110 km/hr, and intervals of heavy rain with sleet or snow on higher ground as temperatures will only be around 6 or 7 C at lower elevations and colder air aloft.

    THURSDAY will see the last remnants of that storm departing then a more tranquil day to follow, partly cloudy with highs near 7 C.

    FRIDAY looks partly cloudy to overcast with showers, and highs near 7 C.

    The further outlook is once again quite unsettled, two strong frontal systems are indicated on current guidance, one around the weekend of the 19th-20th, and the second one around 23rd-24th. Both are going to be working with relatively cool moist air masses so that while most places seem likely to get rain from them, sleet and snow will probably be in the mix for higher elevations, and in both cases there could be strong southwest to west winds. Obviously we'll have more details on this period in coming days but temperatures would be in the 5 to 8 C range most of that interval, and could drop even a degree or two further around Christmas as some quite cool modified arctic air is showing up, having taken a route across the North Atlantic from up around northeast Greenland and Iceland. So it would seem like the trends are gradually pointing towards colder wintry weather later this month.

    My local weather on Thursday was overcast with a high near 2 C, and on our brief rambles we discovered that all the snow is gone down at valley floor elevations with our own snow cover a sort of partially frozen 10-15 cms. Mild weather further east in North America will last a few more days but a fairly strong storm is forming over the plains states and will push through the Great Lakes bringing heavy snow to some parts of the Midwest, rain in the Ohio valley and lower Great Lakes. Then it will start turning colder in stages in many parts of North America towards the holiday period.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 12 December, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 12 to 18 December 2020

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values.
    -- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal.
    -- Sunshine will average only 50 to 75 per cent of normal.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be generally dry with mostly cloudy skies, a few brighter intervals, and increasingly strong south to southwest winds developing by afternoon. Highs 8 to 10 C.

    TONIGHT and SUNDAY will see intervals of heavy rain, embedded thunderstorms possible, 20-40 mm rainfalls and some isolated flooding. Lows overnight and highs tomorrow fairly steady near 12 C.

    MONDAY will become partly cloudy with passing showers, highs near 10 C.

    TUESDAY will be rather cold with isolated showers, highs near 7 C.

    TUESDAY NIGHT into WEDNESDAY, stormy conditions are quite possible (although guidance has split on details), most likely outcome is for strong to severe south-southwest winds overnight, heavy rain at times, followed by further strong southwest winds on Wednesday, variable cloud, temperatures peaking around 11-13 C during the late overnight. There is some chance this storm would be weaker and further to the east (according to some guidance) so would have to rate the more severe outcome as 70% likely at this stage. Wind gust potential is well into the orange alert category (120-130 km/hr).

    The OUTLOOK for later in the week is for somewhat cooler and blustery conditions with the risk of further intervals of stormy or at least windy weather in the run up to the holidays when it may begin to turn considerably colder.

    My local weather on Friday was overcast with light snow (trace to 1 cm accumulations around the region) and temperatures in the range of -3 to +1 C from hilly areas to valley (where I spent most of my day).


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 13 December, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 13 to 19 December 2020 --

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values.
    -- Rainfall will average 25 per cent above normal.
    -- Sunshine will average 75 per cent of normal values.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will continue mild with intermittent showers, some rather heavy, but also some brighter intervals developing at times, with winds moderate southwest 40 to 60 km/hr, some higher gusts near coasts. Highs 11 to 13 C.

    TONIGHT will be breezy to windy at times, with further intervals of rain, and lows around 7 C.

    MONDAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, and there will be a few showers but temperatures will be slightly cooler than today at around 9 C.

    TUESDAY will be cloudy with sunny intervals, for a time winds will not be as strong, then by evening wind speeds will begin to ramp up as a storm approaches from the southwest with heavy rain likely by late afternoon in the south and west. Lows near 2 C and highs near 8 C but temperatures will be steady or even rising to higher levels overnight.

    WEDNESDAY will see an interval of strong to severe winds in the early morning hours, persisting to about mid-day before easing. On current guidance, south to southwest winds of 80 to 110 km/hr seem likely, with higher gusts still possible. About 10-20 mm of rain is also expected, mostly during the overnight hours. The day itself may turn more variable in cloud cover with passing showers and the odd brief sunny interval, temperatures steady around 11 or 12 degrees before dropping back to near 7 C later in the day.

    THURSDAY will be overcast and mild with rain, as soon as the Wednesday storm system moves past Scotland in the evening, another Atlantic frontal system will be heading in but this one is fairly tame in terms of wind speeds, more of a rain producing system and temperatures will be back up around 9 or 10 C.

    FRIDAY that system will be moving away leaving partly cloudy skies, isolated showers and brisk westerly winds, temperatures around 7 or 8 C.

    OUTLOOK ... The weekend of 19th-20th may be fairly cool and unsettled with moderate westerly winds, then another fairly vigorous storm system will arrive by Monday 21st, after which it will turn considerably colder although in stages, meaning that the Christmas holiday period may be around 5 to 7 C, but even colder weather is possible afterwards. There is not a very strong indication of wintry precipitation with this colder spell which may be dominated enough by high pressure to remain largely dry.

    My local weather on Saturday was cloudy and rather cold with temperatures near -4 C. There were a few snowflakes at times but no real accumulations.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 14 December, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 14 to 20 Dec 2020

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values.
    -- Rainfall will average near normal values (possibly a bit below normal in some areas).
    -- Sunshine will average near normal for mid-December (2 hours a day).


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will continue rather blustery with a few showers, one or two on the heavy side in parts of Munster and south Connacht mainly. Winds southwest 40 to 60 km/hr and highs 8 to 11 C.

    TONIGHT will see partial clearing and so it may turn slightly colder than recent nights with lows 1 to 4 C.

    TUESDAY will have some brighter spells and not much shower activity in the east or north, just a few isolated showers will develop close to south and west coasts by mid-day, with rain arriving late afternoon. Winds for most of the day will be quite moderate but will begin to ramp up to rather stormy levels by evening. Highest temperatures during the day will be 8 to 10 C but temperatures will likely check at that level before edging even higher during the evening.

    TUESDAY NIGHT into WEDNESDAY MORNING, a storm system (Brendan?) will approach the west coast from the south-southwest and may still be rather strong at that time (it is however expected to peak in strength about six to twelve hours before reaching Ireland). This will bring about strong southeast veering to south-southwesterly winds of 70 to 110 km/hr, with potential for a few higher gusts in exposed coastal locations, and a widespread rainfall of about 20-30 mm. Temperatures during this event will be steady near 11 or 12 C.

    The rest of WEDNESDAY will see rapid improvements as the storm is both fast-moving and will probably also be weakening so that the very strong winds will rapidly subside to moderate southwest 40-70 km/hr by afternoon. There may be a partial clearance of skies too, as a dry slot (between this storm and another system timed for Thursday) arrives. Temperatures will gradually fall back to 7-9 C.

    THURSDAY will be overcast and mild with rain at times, becoming rather heavy again late in the day. About 10-15 mm of rain is likely in some areas. Highs will reach 10 to 12 C.

    FRIDAY will be breezy and mild with the rain tapering to showers before ending, highs 9 to 11 C.

    The WEEKEND will be generally more settled with slightly cooler temperatures near 8 C daytime and 2 C overnight.

    A weak storm track will then develop across areas just south of Ireland, which may spread some light rain into the south late on Sunday. A more vigorous disturbance is likely but guidance on its track is rather mixed at present, some models want to take this south of Munster to produce an easterly flow in rather cool temperatures, by Monday 21st into Tuesday 22nd, and that could produce sleet or wet snow. Other guidance takes this low along a track into central counties of Ireland which would be more of a rain and wind event at least for the south and east. After it goes by, however, most guidance then agrees that a colder northwest flow begins around Christmas Eve and lasts for a few days, and this would likely bring temperatures down to around 5 C in the daytime and near -2 C for overnight lows, which could mean that any showers in the flow would be wintry, the question being how unsettled the flow might be, and it does not look all that productive so small amounts of sleet or hill snow could be the outcome for Christmas.

    My local weather on Sunday has been overcast and cold with a light snow falling most of the day, only about 1-2 cm accumulation despite that, and temperatures near -5 C. The mild spell over eastern regions of North America is coming to an end as low pressure forms over the inland southeast today, tracking offshore towards Cape Cod. This may bring heavy snowfalls to areas 30 to 150 kms inland from the Atlantic coast and a sleety cold rain in northeast winds near the coast in the larger cities. Places like Scranton PA, Newburgh NY, Hartford CT and Concord NH could see 15-25 cm snowfalls from this storm.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 15 December 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for week of 15 to 21 Dec 2020

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values.
    -- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal values in the south, to near normal in the north.
    -- Sunshine will average around normal also.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly cloudy with some decent sunny breaks in the east and north, and scattered showers in parts of the south and west, one or two of which could be locally heavy with hail (south Clare, Limerick, west Cork seem most at risk). Highs by late afternoon near 10 C. Winds rather moderate in most areas, southeast 40-60 km/hr for west Munster, increasing by late afternoon to 50-80 km/hr, as rain from the approaching storm arrives. (if it gets a name, it would be Bella, not Brendan).

    TONIGHT will become rather stormy across the south and east in particular, with the onshore strong winds raising concerns about coastal flooding as we have just had the new moon. Winds will be southeast 70 to 110 km/hr and there could be isolated higher gusts. Rain will amount to 15 to 25 mm in many areas. Temperatures will be steady near 10 or 11 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... the storm will weaken gradually as it moves further north, and a dry slot will rotate around into parts of west Munster and south Connacht, as what's left of the rain becomes more showery and arcs out over the Irish Sea by late morning. The strong winds will gradually abate but not until after an interval of strong westerly winds around Galway Bay, and west Munster. Temperatures will be near 9 C by mid-day and may remain steady near that reading into the overnight hours with further rain likely at times.

    THURSDAY will be cloudy and mild with outbreaks of rain, 15 to 25 mm by Friday morning. Winds rather moderate at about 50-70 km/hr from the south to southwest, temperatures steady 10 to 12 C.

    FRIDAY will see the rain tapering off to showers, moderate southwest winds, temperatures about 8 to 10 C.

    SATURDAY will become partly cloudy with isolated showers, moderate southwest winds, highs near 8 C.

    SUNDAY will be mostly cloudy with occasional rain and highs near 8 C.

    MONDAY into early TUESDAY, another Atlantic storm may move into the south with locally strong winds and heavy rains, temperatures will be 8 to 11 C in the south but only 4 to 7 C further north where winds may be more easterly as the low centre tracks through central counties. Although there's no strong indications of wintry mixtures, those could happen on higher terrain at least.

    By Wednesday (23rd) it will be breezy and turning colder in a moderate to strong northwesterly flow, with scattered wintry showers likely then, highs only 4 to 7 C. Thursday 24th will be similar, then Christmas Day (Friday 25th) is likely to be bright but rather cold with morning frosts and afternoon highs of 4 to 7 C. This colder spell could dominate the end of the month but a brief return to Atlantic frontal systems is possible between Christmas and New Years.

    My local weather on Monday was overcast with highs near -2 C. We're expecting a heavy snowfall here in the next day or two as a strong Pacific low moves into the region, 15 to 30 cm being the range likely around these parts. This will bring strong winds and heavy rainfalls to the lower elevations close to the coast. A separate storm system is developing over the south central U.S. heading for the northeastern states which could get a significant snowstorm also by Tuesday night or Wednesday.


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