Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Autumn/Winter 2017-18

... Ireland and SW-UK ...

A gradually filling depression with a warm-core anomaly approaches Ireland during the night with a weakening gradient wind event along the S-periphery of the depression. Strong subsidence in the well mixed post frontal air mass should limit the overall chances for thunderstorm activity during the night, although some low-end chances exist over offshore areas (e.g. Celtic Sea). A severe wind gust risk accompanies convection, but in general the gradient wind risk should dominate. Hence no level area was issued for now.
At 03 UTC onwards the Irish Sea and W-UK may need some monitoring as dry air aloft overspreads a well mixed/moist BL air mass with slowly intensifying lift. We expanded the lightning area to the east and issued a small level 1 to account for enhanced downward transport of 25 m/s winds at 850 hPa (which may increase the general severe wind gust threat next to the gradient wind threat). Despite favorable kinematics, the tornado risk remains marginal at best due to very little CAPE.

Perhaps a few sferics around the S, SE, E coasts overnight or just inland ?

A convective outlook for this Saturday as a trough traverses the country bringing very cold mid and upper temperatures aloft over relatively warm SST's.Plenty of scope for convection to produce hail and strong squally gusts. Most of the CAPE over the sea at this time of the year with little diurnal heating, Good lapse rates and decent DLS over land but will that be enough to produce sparks over land or will the pulse like cells fizzle out over the sea. I'm wondering given that there is plenty of wind from the NW that this might help some electrified convection produce some lightning activity along Atlantic coasts or maybe carry inland a bit?

Just wondering could we get a few sparks overnight . Seems to have the parameters for convection as the trough passes over the relative warm SST's aided by cool uppers and some DLS to boot. A few sparks well off the W coast this evening. Or is there going to be too much mixing from the windy conditions to allow convection to form all the way to getting electrified ?

A few sferics around today including the thunderstorm referred to by Met Eireann this morning . Sat Pic around late morning showing some large cloud off the SW with evidence of convection.

pad199207 wrote: »

Can see big cb clouds off the Wexford Coast atm

Was thinking this might be the place for some activity this evening, only one strike showing up so far off the Wexford coast .