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13-06-2019, 02:45   #106
hatrickpatrick
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ECM finally showing some decent high pressure over us from the first frame of FI in five days time, on to the end of the run. Let's hope it doesn't vanish over the next few days!
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13-06-2019, 11:04   #107
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The new operational core (FV3) of the GFS model has now been switched to the default operational model:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2019...ftware-update/

Curious if any of our expert watchers have noticed any changes because of this, or have you been keeping an eye on the FV3 runs anyway?
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13-06-2019, 19:08   #108
hatrickpatrick
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The new operational core (FV3) of the GFS model has now been switched to the default operational model:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2019...ftware-update/

Curious if any of our expert watchers have noticed any changes because of this, or have you been keeping an eye on the FV3 runs anyway?
The FV3 was spot on with the SSW around Christmas week and flagged it a fair few days before the (formerly) operational jumped on board - they both forecasted a warming of sorts in the strat, but in the early days the FV3 was the one showing the intense (red-dark red chart) warming while the operational showed a yellow-orange temperature gradient instead. FV3 also predicted the split earlier than the operational caught on, IIRC. They both verified eventually, but the FV3 got there first with a more or less accurate forecast, if my memory serves.
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13-06-2019, 19:31   #109
 
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ECM finally showing some decent high pressure over us from the first frame of FI in five days time, on to the end of the run. Let's hope it doesn't vanish over the next few days!
How did this look over the last couple of runs ?
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13-06-2019, 20:27   #110
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Can u put up a graphic for those of us who are wildly impressed with all this tech talk. Just to spread the hope like.
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13-06-2019, 20:52   #111
hatrickpatrick
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How did this look over the last couple of runs ?
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Can u put up a graphic for those of us who are wildly impressed with all this tech talk. Just to spread the hope like.
It's not as hopeful today I'm afraid so I'll wait a while before posting graphics It's still relatively hopeful, but not as much as yesterday. Give it another few runs.
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13-06-2019, 21:17   #112
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latest ensembles is beginning to show a drying trend, particularly towards the final days of June.



GFS shows a short lived slight ridge around the 19th to 21st of June, it may produce 2 or 3 days tops of dry conditions and nothing too warm. Goes unsettled again for Ireland from the 22nd of June.

The Control run looks more promising with maybe 4 or 5 days of warm and settled conditions.



It just all looks uncertain at this stage, I think we need a few more runs and more support before getting in any way excited. Overall i think the second half of June won't be as cold or wet as this first half.
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14-06-2019, 13:28   #113
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To follow up from the last post, around the 25th and 26th of June looks decent, I was getting excited before the run had finished, more like wishful thinking.



But end of run a few days later shows a very familiar sight:

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18-06-2019, 12:03   #114
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NOTE: This post is for comical sakes. It is to be taken as a good laugh than anything serious.

The GFS 06z run this morning is about as crazy a model run I've ever seen with a hot southerly to southeasterly flow circulating around a slack area of low pressure to south of Ireland. This results in filtering the +25c isotherm into England which has never been seen in recorded history at 850hPa.

And this operational run has said to have been an upgrade on the previous GFS operational?



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18-06-2019, 14:14   #115
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Percentage wise likely hood of happening? It's not all that far off.
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18-06-2019, 14:20   #116
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Percentage wise likely hood of happening? It's not all that far off.
0.0000000001%
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18-06-2019, 14:22   #117
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Percentage wise likely hood of happening? It's not all that far off.
very low, it'll most likely be gone in the next run. Aka 99.99% chance of it being gone and not happening
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18-06-2019, 14:25   #118
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[QUOTE=sryanbruen;110464901]NOTE: This post is for comical sakes. It is to be taken as a good laugh than anything serious.

The GFS 06z run this morning is about as crazy a model run I've ever seen with a hot southerly to southeasterly flow circulating around a slack area of low pressure to south of Ireland. This results in filtering the +25c isotherm into England which has never been seen in recorded history at 850hPa.





very unlikely to happen, would probably result in temperatures over 40C in London.
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18-06-2019, 14:32   #119
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very unlikely to happen, would probably result in temperatures over 40C in London.
I'd say more along the lines of mid 30s given it would be only the end of June. 40c more as a possibility in late July or early August.

Anyway, like I said, posted it for comical sakes. One would seriously doubt the fact this has been a GFS upgrade on its old operational if it comes out with cold bias and now extreme heat.
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18-06-2019, 14:36   #120
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0.0000000001%
So you are telling me there is a chance,ðŸ˜
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