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31-07-2019, 19:04   #226
Gonzo
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the mid to long term outlook for August looks grim, very unsettled and a cooling trend. The models also looked quite poor for the second half of July but thankfully it didn't play out like that. Hopefully August isn't as poor as it is currently looking.

After a few wamish and dry days, the ensembles show a very unsettled picture and temperatures gradually sliding away.



Low pressures sitting over us from early next week:



Low pressure remains stuck over us up to mid month with cool conditions.


At +384 hours low pressure still hanging around:
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03-08-2019, 23:25   #227
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Unfortunately the ECM over the last few runs has been trending LP's returning next weekend .

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04-08-2019, 23:45   #228
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ECM 12Z continues to show LP's cuing up coming in from the Atlantic from next weekend out till the end of the run.

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05-08-2019, 00:20   #229
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Originally Posted by Meteorite58 View Post
ECM 12Z continues to show LP's cuing up coming in from the Atlantic from next weekend out till the end of the run.

We are so overdue a good August...looks like the wait will continue!
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05-08-2019, 00:29   #230
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We are so overdue a good August...looks like the wait will continue!
Oneric 3 put up a 10 day ECM Total Precipitaion chart and would have to think that it is looking quite wet especially if we see LP coming in from that direction at this time of the year.

Jet powering up and looking Zonal and to the S or over us.

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11-08-2019, 21:14   #231
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Long way out but tonight's ECM 12z has developed a vigorous area of low pressure over top of the UK & Ireland on Sunday 18 August with a minimum pressure of 975mb and cool northwesterly winds. Wouldn't be out of place in October or November one must say. GFS has a fairly deep low too for the same timeframe but its centre is smaller and much further northwards.

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11-08-2019, 22:39   #232
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Yea sryanbruen with the Zonal Jet fired up, the last few runs by the ECMWF and GFS have been showing a fairly deep low around next week end , different tracks each run. This run by the ECM showing a deepening depression as it exits the left side of the jet arrive on our shores just before it reaches it's lowest pressure. Looks very wet and windy for a time. It is still a long way out but good to get a starting point on where the models are with it.







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12-08-2019, 20:47   #233
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The LP next weekend at this stage is tracking well off the NW and not as deep as previous runs. Slow to move on and seems to spiral off the North sending in bands of rain and wind and looks to introduce a cooler N'wl and N'ly air flow the early days of next week turning cooler . The 552 Dam line is very far down S.








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12-08-2019, 23:23   #234
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Either way it could be another write off
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13-08-2019, 16:13   #235
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GFS starting to trend much warmer for the final few days of August, possibly hinting at a warm start to September. This is a long way off outside the reliable timeframe but the fact that the schools are back around then, you can nearly bank on a warm and sunny first week back at school. Next week and beyond also looking a bit dryer than it has been recently.



warmer, dryer conditions from 23 August.





ECM also bringing in nice conditions from the 23rd

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14-08-2019, 17:33   #236
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This anticyclone that is set to ridge up from the Azores starting Wednesday next week on current model runs is becoming more and more definitive in likelihood but remains a week away. Every model now seems to be running along the idea of this bringing a settled final week to August or at least a few days. This is coinciding with a weakening of the high latitude blocking over Greenland and perhaps a few days of the NAO going positive. The latter holds some questions though because around the time of the European heatwave in July, the NAO went weakly positive for a few days before going really negative again as the high that brought the heatwave retrogressed northwestwards to the high latitudes. Will we see a similar situation again with a brief period of +NAO then going back to -NAO after a few days along with the jet stream tracking southwards? I'm on the fence for my line of thinking right now for where it will go. Longevity of the high pressure is yet to be revealed.

Easterly winds look like the most likely wind direction associated with this high. If that's the case, daytime temperatures should mainly get into the low 20s. The air mass does not look particularly warm but the sun should help to generate some warmth during the day. Nights could possibly be on the fairly chilly side though getting widely into the single figures.
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14-08-2019, 20:31   #237
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Thats perfect TBH... warm but not boiling days and lovely and cool and night to sleep.
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15-08-2019, 21:40   #238
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I’m away but a brief look at models indicated to me that the ridge from the Azores has been brought a day forward to next Tuesday instead of Wednesday.
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16-08-2019, 00:10   #239
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HP certainly looks like it is trying to build next week , signs of it possibly establishing itself next week end but not without a fight maybe as looks to being put under a bit of pressure from a LP next Fri. GFS not as positive as the ECM wanting to form a cut off low meandering around Biscay and up to E of the UK over the course of a few days out to +300 but that is a long long way away. Will be interesting to see if the Azores HP builds and holds. Would be nice to finish out the summer with some settled warm weather.











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16-08-2019, 06:47   #240
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Looking at the charts posted above, I would say that the high centre would need to establish itself a little bit further east. I see to much Atlantic maritime influence in the charts above resulting in a fair bit of cloud, higher humidity and not particularly warm.....still, settled would be better than unsettled!
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