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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 796 ✭✭✭Sycamore Tree


    Just looking at that too sdanseo. Been showing that pattern for next weekend for a couple of runs now. Would imagine better chance of getting cold NW'lys than E'lys atm. Some strong winds showing up there too , would be very cold windchill and probably wintry on high ground , possible hail and thunder thrown into the mix also if it were to verify. The West best chance of snow on elevated ground perhaps. Those cold uppers usually get modified somewhat over the long fetch across the Atlantic but interesting nonetheless , could do with a bit of a shake up. Looks a lot different to what we have been experiencing the last couple of weeks for sure.


    Music to my ears Meteorite!! I have just been waiting for someone to finally say the magic words "on higher ground". I will be up on the Connemara hills as soon as I see white gold. I plan to do Rocky IV style training this winter!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Scanning some of the ensembles for some FI material.
    Edit: These don't show the same run or time. One is perb 14 (top) +348hrs the bottom is perb (20) +300hrs
    Just in case some folks are unsure.

    gens-14-0-348.png

    gens-20-1-300.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,230 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Nabber wrote: »
    Scanning some of the ensembles for some FI material.
    Edit: These don't show the same run or time. One is perb 14 (top) +348hrs the bottom is perb (20) +300hrs
    Just in case some folks are unsure.

    Just imagining if they were to come off and be at the same time.

    The word "snowicane" would be invented. You read it here first.

    Edit: aww, no you didn't. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_25%E2%80%9327,_2010_North_American_blizzard
    (point of note, that gave 135cm of snow in the USA at just 972mb deepest pressure :pac: )


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,721 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    On the weekly forecast on the BBC, they finished with a look ahead to what is expected to happen from next weekend.
    They said the jet stream starts heading south, as it passes over the UK it will bring unsettled weather and it’s possible some wintry weather.
    But the main thing was the jet stream is going to start moving south from the north of us. If it keeps moving south the floodgates for the cold would be wide open.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Ya its looking more active from next weekend too so looking at satellite at least wont be as boring.

    Looking at average temperatures on Met Eireann website most stations have been milder than average for the best part of a month and it is only logical that some colder weather is now imminent to offset this.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,230 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    RobertKK wrote: »
    On the weekly forecast on the BBC, they finished with a look ahead to what is expected to happen from next weekend.
    They said the jet stream starts heading south, as it passes over the UK it will bring unsettled weather and it’s possible some wintry weather.
    But the main thing was the jet stream is going to start moving south from the north of us. If it keeps moving south the floodgates for the cold would be wide open.

    A northerly flowing (N->S) jet stream over western and Central Europe (see charts posted by meteorite and myself above) is no use to us.

    Omega blocking keeps the cold well at bay.

    If the jet is to move south, we need it to do so entirely well to the south of us, but in a generally westerly flow.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    sdanseo wrote: »
    A northerly flowing (N->S) jet stream over western and Central Europe (see charts posted by meteorite and myself above) is no use to us.

    Omega blocking keeps the cold well at bay.

    If the jet is to move south, we need it to do so entirely well to the south of us, but in a generally westerly flow.

    Yes last march the jet was into Morocco and the med
    A u shaped jet would promote a Euro high,commonly known on weather fora as a Bartlett which would bring a very mild spell to Ireland

    Today is the 6th of January, let's see what modeis have on the 16th which is a week before the last week of January ,the time frame generally touted as a turning point
    It will still be FI but pointers on any strat impact will be a lot clearer
    One thing is probable now though and that is,it's going to be a different impact to last February but will it be cold or severe?


  • Registered Users Posts: 358 ✭✭YanSno


    CFS is forecasting for a cold February, taking it with a pinch of salt but signals are there. With blocking to the north. I think around the beginning of February we could be looking at something quite cold coming from the north east.

    JDozEXp.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    Check out the CFS daily for the craic :)

    I know, I know, I know.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    I figured out how to hack the meteociel gif maker to produce longer gifs, if anyone's interested

    tempresult_gdj0.gif


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,730 ✭✭✭Comhrá


    gabeeg wrote: »
    I figured out how to hack the meteociel gif maker to produce longer gifs, if anyone's interested

    Oops! Expect a visit from the Internet Police soon.

    giphy.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    they'll never take me alive


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,131 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    gabeeg wrote: »
    Check out the CFS daily for the craic :)

    I know, I know, I know.

    Just did. As Don McLean put it, "February made me shiver...."


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    Ok, so to create longer gifs on meteociel, you just follow these steps.
    I'm using Chrome on a Mac, but it should be very similar on PC

    1. Open the gif-maker

    2. Right click and hit inspect. This brings up the dev tools window.

    469816.jpg

    3. Click the selection tool, and then select the dropdown menu next to 'Encheance debut'

    469817.jpg

    4. Expand the element you've selected in the dev tool window, and change the value to 6 (as in hours).

    469818.jpg

    5. All done. Just hit the generate button

    You should get something like this

    tempresult_cbf0.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 209 ✭✭Easterly Beasterly


    Latest ECMWF Weekly increases the chances of a cold spell. ;)

    It's been very consistent with this!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Latest ECMWF Weekly increases the chances of a cold spell. ;)

    It's been very consistent with this!

    You're getting better at this;)

    Modeling of the strat is supposed to be less chaotic and more reliable than the trop and latterly the gfs is showing downwelling right into the trop
    Shiver me timbers for what that could mean

    https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1082302112090996737?s=19


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,551 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The GFS is just playing catch up with the Glosea5 model;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    6z FV3 is a massive upgrade, let's see if the 12z can follow:

    6AOPW9a.gif

    Some incredible GEFS members as well - GFS finally picking up on what's been happening in the strat?

    gens-12-1-300.png

    gens-18-1-300.png

    gens-19-1-300.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    Not just cold according to the ECM long-term anomalies, but a fair bit of precipitation around too

    MonthlyAnomalies_T2m_20190107_w3.png

    MonthlyAnomalies_Rain_20190107_w3.png

    MonthlyAnomalies_T2m_20190107_w4.png

    MonthlyAnomalies_Rain_20190107_w4.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    These are at the very end of Fantasy Island so posting them purely for fun! If I tweeted them I'm sure the media would cause a bread shortage :D

    gfs-0-372.png

    gfs-1-372.png


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭Andrew00


    Stunning


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    h850t850eu.pngprectypeuktopo.pngukmintemp.png




    looks like the gfs is starting to finally react to the SSW.
    the minus 10 850 hpa spilling down over the uk and ireland as the high out in the atlantic ridges up to greenland.airpressure.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    GEFS 12z looking cool.....

    bAmkJAC.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 358 ✭✭YanSno


    Had a look at the latest NAO, Some members (outliner) really going for negative territory by the end January. Trend downwards anyway, with AO also on the negative side. That would bring a very cold weather from the north east with blocking on the the Artic and north Atlantic. Very long way off though

    0vxrdXt.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 234 ✭✭konman


    The ECM, GFS and GEM all look very similar at T240 unless I'm reading them wrong. Not often that happens.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    The overnight GFS hasn't been as good, but in my view it should be ignored as the FV3 wasn't run yesterday due to the government shutdown in the US. So all we have GFS-wise is the outdated version of the model, IMO not much use without the new one to compare. Hopefully they'll be able to switch the FV3 back on ASAP!


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    The "World’s Highest-Resolution Global Weather Forecasting Model" - IBM Global High-Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting System (GRAF) - is now live.

    The model will be the first hourly-updating weather model that is able to predict something as small as a thunderstorm virtually anywhere on the planet.

    The data to the charts is not publicly available and it probably won't be.

    https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1083028560355282945


  • Registered Users Posts: 277 ✭✭wing52


    I'd love to see what the subscription fees are! 200k for the ecm.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    Not publicly available :(


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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,230 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    The overnight GFS hasn't been as good, but in my view it should be ignored as the FV3 wasn't run yesterday due to the government shutdown in the US. So all we have GFS-wise is the outdated version of the model, IMO not much use without the new one to compare. Hopefully they'll be able to switch the FV3 back on ASAP!

    Strange:
    https://www.commerce.gov/news/blog/2018/12/shutdown-due-lapse-congressional-appropriations

    In compliance with the restrictions of the Antideficiency Act, the Department of Commerce will maintain the following services and activities during a lapse in appropriations:

    Weather, water, and climate observing, prediction, forecast, warning and support


This discussion has been closed.
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